Notes on the Week Ahead

For many years, the U.S. economy has been exceptional, at least as measured by the financial market fundamentals of profits and interest rates. However, this is an aging expansion, now entering its sixth year and, more importantly, now more than three years after a surging post-covid recovery cut the unemployment rate to 4%.

One clear advantage of getting older, (and I can attest to many of its disadvantages), is that you learn from experience. The financial market chaos, following the President’s tariff announcement, is different from previous market slumps.

I may have mentioned this before, but as a young lad, I had a very healthy appetite. Consequently, when deciding on a hobby, I prudently elected to go with “cooking”. My experiments included making fudge and my mother dutifully supplied me with sugar, vanilla and helpful advice.

I was at a conference last wI was running along the roads of our neighborhood last weekend when I came upon a small herd of deer. I often see these beautiful but dopey creatures at dawn as they wander aimlessly in the middle of the road. eek and a financial advisor asked me what I thought he should say when a client asked him what was so bad about tariffs.

I was at a conference last week and a financial advisor asked me what I thought he should say when a client asked him what was so bad about tariffs.

In December, the Census Bureau announced that the U.S. population had grown by nearly 1% in the year ended July 1st, 2024, marking the strongest annual gain since 2001. Given this, it seems strange to be already talking about slowing population growth.