Fixed income Blog

China: Analyzing the 2025 fiscal plan amid rising AI and tariffs

In this blog, we discuss the fiscal package for 2025 against rising AI (artificial intelligence) and accelerated tariffs and assess the corresponding economic impact.

Expansionary fiscal package for 2025

The Chinese government announced an expansionary fiscal arrangement for 2025 in March National People’s Congress (NPC)-Two Sessions:

  • Fiscal deficit: approximately 4% (vs. 2024: 3%)
  • Special China Government Bond (CGB) quota: CNY1.8 trillion (trn) (vs. 2024: 1trn) 
  • Local Government (LG) special bond quota: CNY4.4trn (vs. 2024: CNY3.9trn)

The fiscal package aims to boost consumption and fixed asset investment (FAI) as major offsets to external headwinds, managing downside risk in the housing sector and continually pushing on technological developments and upgrades.

We read the fiscal package as positive as the Chinese government takes a bold move to break through the 3% implicit fiscal deficit cap which has been in place for many years. But we also note this is against the backdrop of a fast evolving trade war 2.0, in which the Trump administration prefers a more ambitious tariff plan compared to trade war 1.0.

Based on our estimate, the fiscal package can only partially offset the tariff drag on the Chinese economy, and we expect full year GDP growth moderating to 4.5% in 2025, down from 5% previously. With that, we are not seeing the fiscal package to be a strong stimulus, and we expect that more (than already announced) fiscal support is needed if 5% is a must achieve growth target, with only mild support from AI and potential downside risk due to elevated trade tension.

Rising AI is not a game changer to the growth model yet

The emergence of DeepSeek gained much traction in past months, serving as a milestone of Chinese technological developments amid continuous curb the past few years. Fundamental wise, we expect the AI-led economic impact will be felt via capital expenditures (capex) and labor channels.

Related capex will be firstly in AI infrastructure (such as data centers and semiconductors) and gradually spread to non-AI segments (such as smart manufacturing, autonomous vehicles, healthcare, biotech, smart cities etc) in the medium and long term. Based on Chinese tech leading players’ capex plan, and our estimate, we expect AI related capex in 2025 to be relatively small, 0.1-0.2% of GDP, before it reaches a more sizable scale three or four years later. Nonetheless, in the near term, the positive equity market reaction triggered by DeepSeek can boost up sentiment and generate some positive wealth effects in our view.

We see mixed AI impact on the labor force. On one hand, massive adoption of AI is supposed to enhance productivity and efficiency attached to labor and increase labor contribution to economic growth in the medium and long term. However, on the other hand, massive adoption of AI is likely to hit the labor market in the first few years and weigh on employment. Based on our estimate, the net AI impact through the labor channel may be slightly negative in the initial stage. As a larger portion of Chinese employment is in sectors which are less sensitive to AI, both the negative impact (via employment hit) and positive impact (via productivity improvement) will be less compared to the case in U.S. With that, we see limited AI upside for the potential growth trend derived from labor in the near term.

Faster tariff play with much uncertainties ahead

The U.S. government already increased the tariff rate on China by an extra 20% and the effective tariff rate reached 30% in the first two months of 2025, which is much faster than that in 2018-2019. Based on the two memorandums - “America First Investment Policy” and “America First Trade Policy”, the Trump administration is contemplating further trade and non-trade plans on China. It is possible to see policy swings and negotiation before reaching any conclusions, but we see high uncertainties ahead and hold a cautious view on the tariff playbook.

We expect China to remain under a reactive policy framework, so it is likely that the government will announce additional fiscal measures if the external situation visibly deteriorates. However, at the same time, this reactive approach means stimulus overshoot is unlikely.

Fiscal Impulse

figure-fiscal-impulse

Source: Wind, JPMAM estimates; As of 3/5/2025

dc286819-09a3-11f0-bbd7-3f7eb384d355

Copyright 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This website is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purposes. By receiving this communication you agree with the intended purpose described above. Any examples used in this material are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. None of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, its affiliates or representatives is suggesting that the recipient or any other person take a specific course of action or any action at all. Communications such as this are not impartial and are provided in connection with the advertising and marketing of products and services. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from personal financial, legal, tax and other professionals that take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.

 

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors.

 

INFORMATION REGARDING INVESTMENT ADVISORY SERVICES: J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. Investment Advisory Services provided by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc.

 

INFORMATION REGARDING MUTUAL FUNDS/ETF: Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives and risks as well as charges and expenses of a mutual fund or ETF before investing. The summary and full prospectuses contain this and other information about the mutual fund or ETF and should be read carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus for Mutual Funds: Contact JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc. at 1-800-480-4111 or download it from this site. Exchange Traded Funds: Call 1-844-4JPM-ETF or download it from this site.

 

J.P. Morgan Funds and J.P. Morgan ETFs are distributed by JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc., which is an affiliate of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Affiliates of JPMorgan Chase & Co. receive fees for providing various services to the funds. JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc. is a member of FINRA FINRA's BrokerCheck

 

INFORMATION REGARDING COMMINGLED FUNDS: For additional information regarding the Commingled Pension Trust Funds of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., please contact your J.P. Morgan Asset Management representative.

 

The Commingled Pension Trust Funds of JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. are collective trust funds established and maintained by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. under a declaration of trust. The funds are not required to file a prospectus or registration statement with the SEC, and accordingly, neither is available. The funds are available only to certain qualified retirement plans and governmental plans and is not offered to the general public. Units of the funds are not bank deposits and are not insured or guaranteed by any bank, government entity, the FDIC or any other type of deposit insurance. You should carefully consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the fund before investing.

 

INFORMATION FOR ALL SITE USERS: J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide.

 

NOT FDIC INSURED | NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE

 

Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and/or recorded.

 

Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https://www.jpmorgan.com/privacy.

 

If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.

 

READ IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION. CLICK HERE >

 

The value of investments may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the full amount invested.

 

Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.