On the Minds of Investors

Will the Southern California wildfires impact the current economic expansion?

Brandon Hall

Research Analyst

Published: 01/17/2025
Listen now
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Hi, I am Brandon Hall, Research Analyst at J.P Morgan Asset Management and welcome to On the Minds of Investors. Today's blog answers the question "Will the Southern California wildfires impact the current economic expansion?" Natural disasters impose severe hardships on families and communities, and our thoughts are with those affected by the wildfires in Southern California.

These events can also impact broader economic conditions. The Southern California wildfires have been burning for over a week, with the two largest blazes (Palisades and Eaton) still active. These two fires alone have burned nearly 40k acres of land and damaged/ destroyed over 12k structures. CoreLogic, a global property information and analytics firm, estimates the initial property losses from these two fires could total between $35bn and $45bn, and the total economic loss could be far greater.1 If these estimates hold true, this would be the costliest wildfire disaster and one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.

With the Palisades and Eaton fires just 27% and 55% contained, respectively, the ultimate impact remains unknown. With homes and businesses destroyed and families displaced, there will be devastating implications for the local economy. For now, however, the national economy should be relatively immune to this shock.

  • Growth impacts should be modest: California accounts for roughly 14% of total U.S. GDP.  As such, behavior in Los Angeles County, the most populous county in both the state and the country, could influence national trends. That said, with only a fraction of the county’s population under evacuation orders and the availability of federal assistance, disruptions to national-level consumption should be modest. Moreover, since the fires have mostly affected residential rather than commercial areas, national business activity should also be largely unharmed. Importantly, GDP is a measure of current output, so the destruction of property built in previous periods alone won’t directly influence future GDP figures. Rebuilding efforts could boost residential investment, but with these efforts likely to be spread across multiple quarters, this boost may not be discernible in the GDP accounts.
  • Negative employment impulse could be short-lived: Initial jobless claims in California rose by just 1,884 for the week ending January 11th, suggesting the fires’ impact on unemployment in the January Jobs report should be limited. BLS research2 shows large wildfires tend to have negative short-term implications for employment growth, and economists3 expect a drag of ~20k payroll jobs this month. That said, employment tends to recover quickly and select industries, such as construction, could benefit from rebuilding activity.
  • Broader inflation dynamics should remain well behaved: With apartment vacancy rates below 5%, the Los Angeles County real estate market was already tight. As the fires exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, local rents should rise further. However, rent measured in the CPI index reflects an average across geographies. Barring a broader spike in national rents, the inflationary impacts should be negligible.

Disasters like this highlight a broader challenge facing U.S. households: as natural disasters become more frequent and destructive, property and casualty insurers in at-risk areas may refuse to offer policies. Property values in affected areas will likely fall, although the rising cost of insurance could push prospective homebuyers elsewhere. With housing supply already limited, this could pressure national home prices even higher, pushing more Americans into the rental market and further from homeownership.

1 For example, preliminary estimates from AccuWeather, which consider factors like the cost of relocation, clean-up and medical care as well as lost wages and business activity, suggest the total economic loss from this disaster could total $250bn to $275bn.

2 Tian Luo, "Labor market impacts of destructive California wildfires," Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2023, https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2023.16

3 Goldman Sachs Investment Research

With the Palisades and Eaton fires just 27% and 55% contained, respectively, the ultimate impact remains unknown. With homes and businesses destroyed and families displaced, there will be devastating implications for the local economy.

Natural disasters impose severe hardships on families and communities, and our thoughts are with those affected by the wildfires in Southern California.

These events can also impact broader economic conditions. The Southern California wildfires have been burning for over a week, with the two largest blazes (Palisades and Eaton) still active. These two fires alone have burned nearly 40k acres of land and damaged/ destroyed over 12k structures. CoreLogic, a global property information and analytics firm, estimates the initial property losses from these two fires could total between $35bn and $45bn, and the total economic loss could be far greater.1 If these estimates hold true, this would be the costliest wildfire disaster and one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.

With the Palisades and Eaton fires just 27% and 55% contained, respectively, the ultimate impact remains unknown. With homes and businesses destroyed and families displaced, there will be devastating implications for the local economy. For now, however, the national economy should be relatively immune to this shock.

  • Growth impacts should be modest: California accounts for roughly 14% of total U.S. GDP.  As such, behavior in Los Angeles County, the most populous county in both the state and the country, could influence national trends. That said, with only a fraction of the county’s population under evacuation orders and the availability of federal assistance, disruptions to national-level consumption should be modest. Moreover, since the fires have mostly affected residential rather than commercial areas, national business activity should also be largely unharmed. Importantly, GDP is a measure of current output, so the destruction of property built in previous periods alone won’t directly influence future GDP figures. Rebuilding efforts could boost residential investment, but with these efforts likely to be spread across multiple quarters, this boost may not be discernible in the GDP accounts.
  • Negative employment impulse could be short-lived: Initial jobless claims in California rose by just 1,884 for the week ending January 11th, suggesting the fires’ impact on unemployment in the January Jobs report should be limited. BLS research2 shows large wildfires tend to have negative short-term implications for employment growth, and economists3 expect a drag of ~20k payroll jobs this month. That said, employment tends to recover quickly and select industries, such as construction, could benefit from rebuilding activity.
  • Broader inflation dynamics should remain well behaved: With apartment vacancy rates below 5%, the Los Angeles County real estate market was already tight. As the fires exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, local rents should rise further. However, rent measured in the CPI index reflects an average across geographies. Barring a broader spike in national rents, the inflationary impacts should be negligible.

Disasters like this highlight a broader challenge facing U.S. households: as natural disasters become more frequent and destructive, property and casualty insurers in at-risk areas may refuse to offer policies. Property values in affected areas will likely fall, although the rising cost of insurance could push prospective homebuyers elsewhere. With housing supply already limited, this could pressure national home prices even higher, pushing more Americans into the rental market and further from homeownership.

Natural disasters are becoming more frequent and costly

Average annual frequency of and damages caused by weather-related disasters, by decade

Natural disasters are becoming more frequent and costly

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Data only includes weather events causing $1bn in losses or greater in current dollars. Cost data are CPI inflation-adjusted to 2024 dollars by the NCEI. According to the NCEI, these costs include: physical damage to residential, commercial and municipal buildings; material assets within buildings; time element losses such as business interruption or loss of living quarters; damage to vehicles and boats; public assets including roads, bridges, levees; electrical infrastructure and offshore energy platforms; agricultural assets including crops, livestock, and commercial timber; and wildfire suppression costs, among others. All costs included may not have a direct impact on real GDP.

Data are as of January 16, 2025.

1 For example, preliminary estimates from AccuWeather, which consider factors like the cost of relocation, clean-up and medical care as well as lost wages and business activity, suggest the total economic loss from this disaster could total $250bn to $275bn.
2 Tian Luo, "Labor market impacts of destructive California wildfires," Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2023, 
3 Goldman Sachs Investment Research
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Brandon Hall

Research Analyst

Published: 01/17/2025
Listen now
00:00

Hi, I am Brandon Hall, Research Analyst at J.P Morgan Asset Management and welcome to On the Minds of Investors. Today's blog answers the question "Will the Southern California wildfires impact the current economic expansion?" Natural disasters impose severe hardships on families and communities, and our thoughts are with those affected by the wildfires in Southern California.

These events can also impact broader economic conditions. The Southern California wildfires have been burning for over a week, with the two largest blazes (Palisades and Eaton) still active. These two fires alone have burned nearly 40k acres of land and damaged/ destroyed over 12k structures. CoreLogic, a global property information and analytics firm, estimates the initial property losses from these two fires could total between $35bn and $45bn, and the total economic loss could be far greater.1 If these estimates hold true, this would be the costliest wildfire disaster and one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.

With the Palisades and Eaton fires just 27% and 55% contained, respectively, the ultimate impact remains unknown. With homes and businesses destroyed and families displaced, there will be devastating implications for the local economy. For now, however, the national economy should be relatively immune to this shock.

  • Growth impacts should be modest: California accounts for roughly 14% of total U.S. GDP.  As such, behavior in Los Angeles County, the most populous county in both the state and the country, could influence national trends. That said, with only a fraction of the county’s population under evacuation orders and the availability of federal assistance, disruptions to national-level consumption should be modest. Moreover, since the fires have mostly affected residential rather than commercial areas, national business activity should also be largely unharmed. Importantly, GDP is a measure of current output, so the destruction of property built in previous periods alone won’t directly influence future GDP figures. Rebuilding efforts could boost residential investment, but with these efforts likely to be spread across multiple quarters, this boost may not be discernible in the GDP accounts.
  • Negative employment impulse could be short-lived: Initial jobless claims in California rose by just 1,884 for the week ending January 11th, suggesting the fires’ impact on unemployment in the January Jobs report should be limited. BLS research2 shows large wildfires tend to have negative short-term implications for employment growth, and economists3 expect a drag of ~20k payroll jobs this month. That said, employment tends to recover quickly and select industries, such as construction, could benefit from rebuilding activity.
  • Broader inflation dynamics should remain well behaved: With apartment vacancy rates below 5%, the Los Angeles County real estate market was already tight. As the fires exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, local rents should rise further. However, rent measured in the CPI index reflects an average across geographies. Barring a broader spike in national rents, the inflationary impacts should be negligible.

Disasters like this highlight a broader challenge facing U.S. households: as natural disasters become more frequent and destructive, property and casualty insurers in at-risk areas may refuse to offer policies. Property values in affected areas will likely fall, although the rising cost of insurance could push prospective homebuyers elsewhere. With housing supply already limited, this could pressure national home prices even higher, pushing more Americans into the rental market and further from homeownership.

1 For example, preliminary estimates from AccuWeather, which consider factors like the cost of relocation, clean-up and medical care as well as lost wages and business activity, suggest the total economic loss from this disaster could total $250bn to $275bn.

2 Tian Luo, "Labor market impacts of destructive California wildfires," Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2023, https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2023.16

3 Goldman Sachs Investment Research

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