Are investors overlooking the long-term potential of healthcare stocks?

Stephanie Aliaga

Global Market Strategist

Published: 01/15/2025
Listen now
00:00

Hi, my name is Stephanie Aliaga and welcome to On the Minds of Investors. Today's blog answers the question "Are investors overlooking the long-term potential of healthcare stocks?" Over the past two years, healthcare stocks have experienced significant outflows and underperformance relative to the broader market, despite positive catalysts like innovation and weight-loss drugs. Since early 2023, the S&P 500 healthcare index has risen just 4%, while the S&P 500 surged 52%. Few sectors could compete with the Mag 7 during this time, which now account for nearly 40% of S&P market cap, but several factors contributed to weak earnings delivery and diminished sentiment for health care stocks specifically.

The recent J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference offered a more optimistic outlook, highlighting significant developments in the anti-obesity drug wave, increased M&A activity and the promising impacts of AI technologies. After lagging the market significantly, investors must consider whether current valuations present attractive entry points for the sector.

Indeed, many factors that have driven recent underperformance appear to be easing.

  • Easing profit margin pressures: Healthcare providers have faced labor shortages and pandemic-related inflation, compounded by long-term contracts limiting their ability to raise prices. As these contracts renew, pricing power should improve, and technological investments and better retention strategies are expected to alleviate labor tightness.
  • Shifting payer mix: The number of people using government health programs like Medicaid and Medicare has increased from 43% in 2019 to 45% in 2023, which has limited how much healthcare providers can earn. However, this trend is expected to improve in 2025 as the commercial segment rebounds and certain government subsidies end.1
  • Policy uncertainty: The Pharma, Biotech, and Life Sciences industries have been among the worst performers since markets began pricing in a Trump victory last fall. The new administration is expected to push for lower drug prices, and changes in Medicare plans may add to challenges. However, we might be at peak uncertainty, we should expect a clearer picture of the new policy direction soon. 

Meanwhile, key tailwinds are gaining momentum.

  • Partnership and M&A opportunities: The industry is ripe for partnerships, and M&A activity is expected to increase in 2025 as companies have deleveraged from 2023 transactions and the patent cycle approaches.
  • Obesity and specialty drugs: Obesity remains a key theme for the sector, alongside the growing use of specialty drugs.
  • Technology-driven efficiency: Advances in technology are driving the expansion of home health and creating opportunities across software platforms, medical devices and advanced data analytics businesses.
  • Demographics: An aging population is expected to drive increased healthcare spending in the long-term.

An active management approach with a keen understanding of the risks and opportunities in the space will be crucial going forward. The opportunity set is vast, and within-sector performance can vary significantly. Healthcare is the third-largest sector in the S&P 500, behind tech and financials, and the fifth-largest sector in the Russell Midcap. Notably, Eli Lilly has been the best-performing stock in the index, while Pfizer, once a leader in COVID vaccines, has seen its stock fall by over 50%.

Security selection will be critical, but for investors looking to rebalance mega-cap tech exposure, the defensive properties and long-term growth potential of the healthcare sector warrant a closer look.

1 J.P. Morgan Research, Managed Care and Facilities (December 17, 2024) and McKinsey “What to expect in US healthcare in 2025 and beyond”. 

The number of people using government health programs like Medicaid and Medicare has increased from 43% in 2019 to 45% in 2023, which has limited how much healthcare providers can earn.

Over the past two years, healthcare stocks have experienced significant outflows and underperformance relative to the broader market, despite positive catalysts like innovation and weight-loss drugs. Since early 2023, the S&P 500 healthcare index has risen just 4%, while the S&P 500 surged 52%. Few sectors could compete with the Mag 7 during this time, which now account for nearly 40% of S&P market cap, but several factors contributed to weak earnings delivery and diminished sentiment for health care stocks specifically.

The recent J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference offered a more optimistic outlook, highlighting significant developments in the anti-obesity drug wave, increased M&A activity and the promising impacts of AI technologies. After lagging the market significantly, investors must consider whether current valuations present attractive entry points for the sector.

Indeed, many factors that have driven recent underperformance appear to be easing.

  • Easing profit margin pressures: Healthcare providers have faced labor shortages and pandemic-related inflation, compounded by long-term contracts limiting their ability to raise prices. As these contracts renew, pricing power should improve, and technological investments and better retention strategies are expected to alleviate labor tightness.
  • Shifting payer mix: The number of people using government health programs like Medicaid and Medicare has increased from 43% in 2019 to 45% in 2023, which has limited how much healthcare providers can earn. However, this trend is expected to improve in 2025 as the commercial segment rebounds and certain government subsidies end.1
  • Policy uncertainty: The Pharma, Biotech, and Life Sciences industries have been among the worst performers since markets began pricing in a Trump victory last fall. The new administration is expected to push for lower drug prices, and changes in Medicare plans may add to challenges. However, we might be at peak uncertainty and expect a clearer picture of the new policy direction in the coming weeks.  

Meanwhile, key tailwinds are gaining momentum.

  • Partnership and M&A opportunities: The industry is ripe for partnerships, and M&A activity is expected to increase in 2025 as companies have deleveraged from 2023 transactions and the patent cycle approaches.
  • Obesity and specialty drugs: Obesity remains a key theme for the sector, alongside the growing use of specialty drugs.
  • Technology-driven efficiency: Advances in technology are driving the expansion of home health and creating opportunities across software platforms, medical devices and advanced data analytics businesses.
  • Demographics: An aging population is expected to drive increased healthcare spending in the long-term.

An active management approach with a keen understanding of the risks and opportunities in the space will still be crucial going forward. The opportunity set is vast, and within-sector performance can vary significantly. Healthcare is the third-largest sector in the S&P 500, behind tech and financials, and the fifth-largest sector in the Russell Midcap. Notably, Eli Lilly has been the best-performing stock in the index, while Pfizer, once a leader in COVID vaccines, has seen its stock fall by over 50%.

As such, security selection will be critical, but for investors looking to rebalance mega-cap tech exposure, the defensive properties and long-term growth potential of the healthcare sector warrant a closer look.

Healthcare has underperformed the broad market, leaving valuations particularly depressed

Next 12m P/E

OTMI 1.15.25 graph_vf

Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of January 13, 2025. 

1 J.P. Morgan Research, Managed Care and Facilities (December 17, 2024) and McKinsey “What to expect in US healthcare in 2025 and beyond”. 
09zn251501123228
Stephanie Aliaga

Global Market Strategist

Published: 01/15/2025
Listen now
00:00

Hi, my name is Stephanie Aliaga and welcome to On the Minds of Investors. Today's blog answers the question "Are investors overlooking the long-term potential of healthcare stocks?" Over the past two years, healthcare stocks have experienced significant outflows and underperformance relative to the broader market, despite positive catalysts like innovation and weight-loss drugs. Since early 2023, the S&P 500 healthcare index has risen just 4%, while the S&P 500 surged 52%. Few sectors could compete with the Mag 7 during this time, which now account for nearly 40% of S&P market cap, but several factors contributed to weak earnings delivery and diminished sentiment for health care stocks specifically.

The recent J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference offered a more optimistic outlook, highlighting significant developments in the anti-obesity drug wave, increased M&A activity and the promising impacts of AI technologies. After lagging the market significantly, investors must consider whether current valuations present attractive entry points for the sector.

Indeed, many factors that have driven recent underperformance appear to be easing.

  • Easing profit margin pressures: Healthcare providers have faced labor shortages and pandemic-related inflation, compounded by long-term contracts limiting their ability to raise prices. As these contracts renew, pricing power should improve, and technological investments and better retention strategies are expected to alleviate labor tightness.
  • Shifting payer mix: The number of people using government health programs like Medicaid and Medicare has increased from 43% in 2019 to 45% in 2023, which has limited how much healthcare providers can earn. However, this trend is expected to improve in 2025 as the commercial segment rebounds and certain government subsidies end.1
  • Policy uncertainty: The Pharma, Biotech, and Life Sciences industries have been among the worst performers since markets began pricing in a Trump victory last fall. The new administration is expected to push for lower drug prices, and changes in Medicare plans may add to challenges. However, we might be at peak uncertainty, we should expect a clearer picture of the new policy direction soon. 

Meanwhile, key tailwinds are gaining momentum.

  • Partnership and M&A opportunities: The industry is ripe for partnerships, and M&A activity is expected to increase in 2025 as companies have deleveraged from 2023 transactions and the patent cycle approaches.
  • Obesity and specialty drugs: Obesity remains a key theme for the sector, alongside the growing use of specialty drugs.
  • Technology-driven efficiency: Advances in technology are driving the expansion of home health and creating opportunities across software platforms, medical devices and advanced data analytics businesses.
  • Demographics: An aging population is expected to drive increased healthcare spending in the long-term.

An active management approach with a keen understanding of the risks and opportunities in the space will be crucial going forward. The opportunity set is vast, and within-sector performance can vary significantly. Healthcare is the third-largest sector in the S&P 500, behind tech and financials, and the fifth-largest sector in the Russell Midcap. Notably, Eli Lilly has been the best-performing stock in the index, while Pfizer, once a leader in COVID vaccines, has seen its stock fall by over 50%.

Security selection will be critical, but for investors looking to rebalance mega-cap tech exposure, the defensive properties and long-term growth potential of the healthcare sector warrant a closer look.

1 J.P. Morgan Research, Managed Care and Facilities (December 17, 2024) and McKinsey “What to expect in US healthcare in 2025 and beyond”. 

Copyright 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This website is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purposes. By receiving this communication you agree with the intended purpose described above. Any examples used in this material are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. None of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, its affiliates or representatives is suggesting that the recipient or any other person take a specific course of action or any action at all. Communications such as this are not impartial and are provided in connection with the advertising and marketing of products and services. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from personal financial, legal, tax and other professionals that take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.

 

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors.

 

INFORMATION REGARDING INVESTMENT ADVISORY SERVICES: J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. Investment Advisory Services provided by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc.

 

INFORMATION REGARDING MUTUAL FUNDS/ETF: Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives and risks as well as charges and expenses of a mutual fund or ETF before investing. The summary and full prospectuses contain this and other information about the mutual fund or ETF and should be read carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus for Mutual Funds: Contact JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc. at 1-800-480-4111 or download it from this site. Exchange Traded Funds: Call 1-844-4JPM-ETF or download it from this site.

 

J.P. Morgan Funds and J.P. Morgan ETFs are distributed by JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc., which is an affiliate of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Affiliates of JPMorgan Chase & Co. receive fees for providing various services to the funds. JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc. is a member of FINRA FINRA's BrokerCheck

 

INFORMATION REGARDING COMMINGLED FUNDS: For additional information regarding the Commingled Pension Trust Funds of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., please contact your J.P. Morgan Asset Management representative.

 

The Commingled Pension Trust Funds of JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. are collective trust funds established and maintained by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. under a declaration of trust. The funds are not required to file a prospectus or registration statement with the SEC, and accordingly, neither is available. The funds are available only to certain qualified retirement plans and governmental plans and is not offered to the general public. Units of the funds are not bank deposits and are not insured or guaranteed by any bank, government entity, the FDIC or any other type of deposit insurance. You should carefully consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the fund before investing.

 

INFORMATION FOR ALL SITE USERS: J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide.

 

NOT FDIC INSURED | NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE

 

Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and/or recorded.

 

Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https://www.jpmorgan.com/privacy.

 

If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.

 

READ IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION. CLICK HERE >

 

The value of investments may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the full amount invested.

 

Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.