I now believe that prospects for a deal are only 50/50 given China's withdrawal of concessions. The economic impact of a growing tariff conflict on the US is modest, but the hit to earnings could be worse. The negative market reaction is in part a consequence of how high valuations became after the spring 2019 rally. Also, how new research on US prescription drug prices vs other countries affects the prospects for drug price legislation. We conclude with an updated ideological scorecard for 2020 Presidential candidates and their policies.
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