In this note, we highlight some of what we have posted recently, and which can be divided into issues the government can fix (credit availability and cost, income loss) and things it cannot (economic activity during a lockdown, the speed of medical advances).
- Trackers of high frequency US manufacturing and consumer data, which are harder to revive with Fed and fiscal policy when lockdowns are in place
- Trackers of the Fed's ability to reduce liquidity problems in credit markets, and where we see value
- A history of markets recovering before employment
- The Chloroquine controversy and the problem with non-randomized trials
- The limited value of infection prediction models (they usually don't work until you know the answer anyway)
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In this podcast series, Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy offers timely commentary on the economy, marekts and investment portfolios