Could the policy response to Covid-19 lead to a resurgence in inflation?
Will inflation return after COVID-19? Explore the thoughts of our experts as they review the effects COVID-19 will have on a post-coronavirus economy.
Our updated views reflect a moderately greater risk tolerance and a recognition that central banks are “all in.” We are neutral stocks vs. bonds, prefer U.S. equities, overweight investment grade credit and reduce duration to a small underweight.
After a historic quarter of global pandemic and breathtaking fiscal and monetary support, we believe GDP has bottomed. Above Trend Growth is our base case (80% probability). Our preferences include bank capital and high quality securitized credit.
Our updated base case view, to which we assign a 60% probability, looks for global growth to bottom out and gradually transition to a shallow recovery. We see only a moderate risk of inflation, as activity and commodity prices remain low. In this core scenario, we expect central banks to remain accommodative, which we think will support emerging market assets.