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    1. Insights

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    Insights to empower better decisions

    Tools and resources necessary to help you make informed investment decisions and build stronger portfolios

    The Weekly Brief
    New Europe 07 - 03 - 2022
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    Our flagship Insights

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    Guide to the Markets

    The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

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    ltcma

    Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

    Discover J.P. Morgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, drawing on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide.

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    gta

    Guide to Alternatives

    Get insights on macro topics such as manager dispersion, while also diving into real estate, private credit, private equity and hedge funds and more.

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    Market Commentary

    ESG investing in China: Considerations for sustainable portfolios

    China does not stack up well on most ESG metrics. Explore our take on whether investing in China can be reconciled with investing sustainably.

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    Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world

    Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.

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    A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

    A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

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    Protecting against inflation: Part 3 – Protecting your capital

    Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.

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    Protecting against inflation: Part 2 – The labour market is key

    Today, there are more job openings than there are unemployed workers. Explore what impact a tight labour market could have on inflation in 2022.

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    Protecting against inflation: Part 1 - Storm in the ports

    Inflation is standing at record levels across many markets. Explore our framework for tracking the impact of supply chain disruption on inflation in 2022.

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    COP26: Not a failure, not a success

    COP26 saw significant announcements in areas such as coal, methane and deforestation, yet progress fell short of the scale required to give us confidence that disruptive climate outcomes can be avoided. Physical climate risks warrant careful consideration for long-term investors.

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    Where do we stand on infrastructure spending?

    From our vantage point, it seems like a given that the President will sign the bipartisan bill into law. Looking at the budget reconciliation package, a deal will get done but it may come down to the wire.

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    UK equities offer value

    With UK shares looking cheap, long-term investors may be able to pick up a bargain in the UK stock market this year. Explore our outlook for UK equities.

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    Four reasons why investors should not underestimate the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund

    Explore how the fiscal stimulus provided by the EU's pandemic recovery fund could lead to stronger economic growth and boost demand for European assets.

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    Value is back, but growth is not out

    Will this year’s value rally continue, or are growth stocks set to regain the initiative? In our latest On the Minds of Investors article, Global Market Strategist Tilmann Galler examines the basic drivers of value outperformance, and looks at how value stocks may perform in three near-term economic scenarios based on our latest projections.

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    The impact of ESG factors on portfolio returns

    History provides only a limited guide to the implications of ESG factors for returns. We look at the conclusions that can be drawn from the past, and how investors can prepare for the future.

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    Why and how to re-think the 60:40 portfolio

    The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.

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    The Great Glut: A historic supply and demand shock in the oil market

    Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.

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    Can China sustain its strong economic momentum?

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.

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    What are the implications of rising corporate bond defaults in China?

    This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on capital markets following a rise in Chinese bond defaults.

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    Featured Portfolio Insights

    Global Asset Allocation Views 3Q 2022

    Subtrend global growth and tighter monetary policy create a challenging outlook for asset markets in 2H22. We downgrade equities to underweight and credit to neutral, move to an overweight in cash and close our underweight to duration.

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    Factor Views 2Q 2022

    Amid tumultuous markets, factors generally had a positive quarter. Equity value, merger arbitrage and commodity factors all fared particularly well. We see an attractive outlook for equity factors, which remain historically cheap.

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    Global Equity Views 2Q 2022

    Despite recent weakness in global markets, many of our portfolio managers remain rather cautious about the outlook. Quality and predictability, as well as modest valuations, matter most in this environment.

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    Emerging Market Debt Quarterly Strategy report Q1 2022

    Our quarterly EMD strategy report assesses the latest economic developments in emerging markets and sets out our base case scenario for the asset class

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    Global Fixed Income Views 3Q 2022

    Sub Trend Growth is now our base case scenario, at 45%. We cut our expectation of Above Trend Growth to 20%, increased Recession to 25% and left Crisis at 10%. Our best idea: high quality, short-duration bonds, in particular short-dated investment grade corporate bonds and securitized credit.

    Learn more
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