Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2026
Enough fuel in the engine
Explore our Mid-Year Outlook to get our latest insights on the global economy and the prospects for global markets, including the main opportunities and risks for investors.
The RBA raised rates for a fourth time this cycle, pushing them to a 15-year high. With inflation expectations still a key concern, the outlook remains data-dependent but biased toward higher-for-longer rates.
A hawkish Fed shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, an oil shock, and AI capex are pushing inflation expectations higher, raising volatility, reviving rate hikes, and reshaping strategy for cash investors.
Get a concise overview of how tokenization is revolutionizing the financial industry by converting traditional assets into robust, efficient digital tokens. This article highlights the key impacts on money market funds, operational advantages, and the accelerating global adoption of blockchain technology.
Tokenized money market funds: tokenization and digital assets for modern cash management. Unlock liquidity, move value faster and improve transparency.
AI investment is driving U.S. data center construction at a scale that demands new approaches to financing. J.P. Morgan's Investment Banking teams break down how corporate debt, project-level debt and multi-layered equity structures are being deployed — and what risks developers and investors need to manage.
If the Federal Reserve does return to a hiking cycle, a key practical consideration is how quickly a money market fund can regain reinvestment flexibility and participate in higher front-end yields. For a corporate treasurer or money market fund investor, two of the first metrics to check are WAM and WAL.
The ECB raised interest rates by 25bps in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, as inflation stayed stubborn and Middle East-driven energy risks kept uncertainty high. With no forward guidance, President Lagarde reinforced a strict meeting by meeting approach, leaving markets to track incoming data and volatile terminal rate pricing.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) delivered a smaller tightening in July, but the direction hasn’t changed. Resilient growth and imported cost pressures leave inflation risks skewed higher and keeps the tightening stance alive. Learn about what this means for S$NEER and why SGD rates may stay volatile.
As we move into mid-year, the macro environment remains defined by a mix of underlying resilience and emerging constraints. U.S. growth continues to hold up, supported by a strong labor market and solid business investment.
Short-term municipal rates remained broadly stable throughout June, supported by balanced supply-and-demand dynamics. The SIFMA Municipal Swap Index, which resets weekly, reflected these conditions and traded within a range of approximately 2.14% to 2.89% over the course of the month.
Asia Pacific central banks are shifting into “wait and see” mode. Energy-driven inflation risks and uneven, AI-led resilience complicate the outlook. The easing cycle looks over; if inflation accelerates, the next move may be hikes.
Energy shocks and higher rates meet the AI boom, with implications for ECB policy, BoE policy and cash investors.
During the recent Global Liquidity Investment Forums held in Shanghai and Beijing, our portfolio managers Aidan Shevlin, Doris Grillo, and Molly Meng shared perspectives on money markets across the world, with a focus on volatility management, rate-path repricing, and policy signal interpretation.
The ECB raised interest rates by 25bps in June, its first hike since 2023, as inflation risks rose and growth outlooks softened. President Lagarde signalled this is unlikely to be a one-off move, with markets looking to September for the next decision.
Geopolitics is reshaping macro and monetary policy after the Strait of Hormuz closure triggered an energy-led inflation shock, keeping central banks higher for longer and highlighting liquidity discipline and yield opportunities.
Central banks face a dilemma as the Middle East conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz drive oil prices higher and supply lower, fueling inflation and threatening growth.
The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered three consecutive rate hikes, reaffirming its commitment to price stability. Its hawkish stance is expected to persist.
As financial markets evolve, tokenization is emerging as a transformative force, promising greater efficiency, transparency, and flexibility.
Even with a new Chair, policy is set by the FOMC, so any evolution in rates, communications, or the balance sheet would require consensus and likely be phased in over time.
The MAS pivoted to a more hawkish stance at its April policy meeting, increasing the S$NEER appreciation rate to counter rising imported inflation driven by energy shocks and global supply disruptions.
U.S. money market funds are poised for growth in 2026, with only modest Fed action expected and no drastic changes in policy or rates. Investors still have opportunities to add duration and seek enhance returns through careful credit selection.
APAC central banks entered 2026 split on the future direction of interest rates as disinflation fades and local growth remains robust. De-dollarization and regulatory convergence deepen local liquidity and anchor yields.
Asia’s credit markets began 2026 on a positive note, supported by solid fundamentals and strong technical driven by investor demand and new issue supply, but the recent geopolitical risk may dampen the picture.
Tokenized money market funds modernize corporate treasury by seeking to pair traditional MMF stability with blockchain enabled speed, transparency, and 24/7 access. Benefits include faster settlement, improved collateral efficiency, real-time visibility, and strategic optionality, with practical considerations around regulation, integration, skills, security, and market depth.
Explore how the Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% for a second consecutive meeting, citing elevated uncertainty tied to Middle East developments.
Greater capacity pressures, stronger private demand, a tight labour market and Middle East energy risks drove the RBA to hike. Despite a split vote and data dependence, the central bank’s commentary stayed hawkish.
Explore how 2026 policy divergence, geopolitics, and de‑dollarisation are reshaping global liquidity. Discover risks, opportunities, and strategies, active duration, diversification, and cash segmentation, across the US, Europe, the UK, and APAC.
RBA’s decision to hike restores its credibility and reflects a shift towards a more hawkish stance, given mounting evidence that the economy is running hotter than anticipated.
Supportive monetary policy, ongoing fiscal initiatives, and the conclusion of quantitative tightening should foster favorable liquidity conditions and create opportunities for short-term investors.
Economic growth is expected to moderate. Fiscal support and lower interest rates provide some uplift, but fading external demand may offset it. Inflation is projected to bottom out, then rise slightly before stabilizing. Most APAC central banks are expected to pause or slow rate cuts, with short-term interest rates stabilizing at levels above previous cycles. China and Japan remain outliers; China may ease further while Japan may hike to address inflation.
Highlights include: ECB optimism, resilient euro area growth, and ongoing BoE rate cuts amid UK economic challenges. Learn how policy divergence, political risks, and market trends are shaping investment strategies for euro and sterling investors.
Explore the Bank of England’s recent rate cut, shifting inflation outlook, and evolving monetary policy. Learn how economic trends and policy decisions impact GBP cash investors, with insights on market expectations, fund strategies, and future rate movements.
Recently, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that the FOMC should modernize its target policy rate by selecting a new benchmark that more accurately reflects the marginal cost of funds for borrowers.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is likely to maintain an accommodative stance, although further rate cuts are unlikely as stability and liquidity take precedence.
Explore the European Central Bank's recent decision to cut key policy rates by 25 basis points and its implications for inflation forecasts, market reactions, and fund positioning. Understand the ECB's strategic outlook amid trade uncertainties and discover how euro cash investors can navigate the evolving monetary landscape.
Explore the Bank of England's cautious approach following a split MPC decision to reduce the Bank Rate to 4.25%. Understand the implications for GBP cash investors amid economic uncertainty, disinflation progress, and revised growth and inflation forecasts.
A brief note on the extraordinary events of the last 72 hours: Anthropic power agreements, OpenAI Millennium and ARC prizes on remarkable jumps in model capabilities, disclosures by OpenAI and Anthropic regarding sandbox jailbreaks and coordinated AI agent swarm attacks, and the relentless campaign by frontier labs to argue for regulatory moats to dampen competitive threats from US/Chinese open models.
Over the last year, the Eye on the Market included views on sectors, rates and currencies. For this back-to-school piece, I prepared a rear window post-mortem on each.
While there’s plenty of evidence to support Stephen Roach’s thesis of unsustainable imbalances in China’s economy, China is living up to anthropomorphic characteristics of this year’s zodiac, the Fire Horse, in at least one regard: bold moves, self-reliance, speed, action and innovation in the energy transition.
The race to patch software vulnerabilities before zero-day cyber-exploitations proliferate
Behold the Aquilaceph, half-bald eagle and half-octopus. On the semiquincentennial 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence, this imaginary beast is a metaphor for the continued US grip on financial markets.
The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, like Kevin McCallister in Home Alone, faces a lonely vigil: survive until the adults get home again. The latest on inflation, rising Treasury yields, shrinking equity risk premia and pressure from the White House. Also: investing in China’s home-grown AI ecosystem, and the predation in prediction markets.
Despite improving US leading indicators and economic/stock market resilience, GOP House members are abandoning ship at a record pace.
Misanthropic: on Mythos, bad human behaviors and systems vulnerabilities. Anthropic describes Mythos as both its best aligned model to date while also conceding that Mythos likely poses the greatest alignment-related risk of any model they have created to date.
Salem’s Lot: an update on the Gulf War. Topics include international commodity price pass-throughs to the US, the limits of energy independence, Gulf temperatures and their relevance to US military options, the proposed Iranian toll on the Strait of Hormuz, the cost per payload of asymmetric warfare and our commodity price tracker.
The last 48 hours have seen an escalation in attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.
This year we tackle the fiercest energy debates— from data centers and power prices to the “primary energy” fallacy and more.
New York City now has one of the tightest housing markets since 1960.
A few comments and exhibits on Venezuela, oil, geopolitics and drug trafficking
In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hyperscaler profits.
On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago.
While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI.
This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be.
In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investments in Intel and MP Materials,...
Fair Shakes: assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR
Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two China traps, Dr. Seuss goes to Europe, a crypto update and the 2025 Top Ten list.
For three decades until 2020, US healthcare stocks generated roughly the same returns as the tech sector, and with much less volatility.
Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag.
Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsured deposits.
A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn.
With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began.
Like his predecessor Robespierre during the French Revolution, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine, focused this time around on government spending with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants.
Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
While the markets may have forced the President’s hand to change tack on tariffs, the revised announcement still entails the highest tariff rates in 100 years, subject to some necessary assumptions regarding what happens to $460 bn of US imports from China.
Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions.
Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded.
Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%-0.6% per year. Our 15th annual energy paper covers the speed of the transition, electrification, the changing planet, the high cost of decarbonization in Europe, nuclear power, the Los Angeles fires, Trump 2.0 energy policies, renewable aviation fuels, superconductivity, methane tracking and the continually wilting prospects for the hydrogen economy.
From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones. Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. In this month’s note, we include a Trump policy impact tracker, and an assessment of the statutory and constitutional challenges that Trump policies face as the administration explores the outer limits of executive power.
The sincerest form of flattery: on DeepSeek, NVIDIA, OpenAI and the futility of US chip bans. The DeepSeek episode can be two things at once: (i) a reflection of impressive Chinese AI innovation in the face of US chip bans and other restrictions, and (ii) the by-product of probable terms of service and copyright violations by DeepSeek against OpenAI. A Shakesperean irony: OpenAI may have had its terms of service violated after spending years training their own models on other people’s data. Warning: this piece is very geeky.
Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin Coolidge, the unforgiving enemies lists of Richard Nixon, the deportation policies of Dwight Eisenhower, the manifest destiny of James Polk and the isolationism of 1914-era Woodrow Wilson. American First policies announced yesterday create risks for investors since its supply side benefits collide with its inflationary tendencies; there’s not a lot of room for error at a time of elevated US equity multiples.
I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said.
A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.
For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run.
The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years.
NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending.
A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies could be as bad for recipients of Google’s shelf space payments as they are for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for owners of impaired office buildings. Most distressed sales now require discounts of 60%+ vs pre-COVID levels; the fundamentals of the office sector explain why.
From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapest levels in the 21st century with potential market and political catalysts in their favor. First, a few words on the CrowdStrike outage.
US small cap stocks were the lions of the 20th century, generating substantial returns over large cap stocks during six different extended periods of time. It has been 20 years since the last one due to a combination of poor small cap profit fundamentals, higher exposure to rising interest rates and the pricing power accruing to the largest stocks in a winner-take-all economy. Small cap has joined value stocks and non-US stocks in the trinity of severely underperforming asset allocation strategies. Relative to large cap, small cap stocks are now at their cheapest levels in the 21st century. While poor fundamentals argue against a seventh multi-year small cap outperformance regime, small cap is much closer to fair value for diversified portfolio investors.
Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden’s LNG export moratorium.
US Presidential elections: a brief primer on candidate replacement; Supreme Court decisions. As part of our ongoing coverage in the Eye on the Market of issues related to the US political process (third party candidates, the 11th and 12th amendments, the Electoral Count Reform Act, faithless electors, the No Labels movement, etc), I want to share a brief description of what we understand regarding candidate replacement procedures after the last Presidential primary and before the general election in November.
Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sports betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time.
With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide and water; and some satellite data on the immense agricultural damage occurring in Gaza and Israel. The Appendix addresses the avian flu’s impact on agriculture and the food supply.
Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: on tech valuations, AI, energy and US politics Last week I spoke to the firm’s tech CEO clients at a conference in Montana. This note is a partial summary of that presentation, entitled “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election”.
Electravision. The predominant vision for the future involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. This vision primarily relies upon the greater efficiency of electric motors and heat pumps vs their fossil fuel counterparts. While the grid is getting greener, electrification is advancing at a much slower pace for reasons related to chemistry, physics, cost, politics and human behavior. Our 14th annual energy paper takes a closer look, and also includes sections on nuclear power, China, hydrogen, “net zero oil” and Gaza’s energy future.
Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities.
This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.
Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.
A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit
Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets
A comparison of NYC to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.
I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. The bottom line: a large language model can process reams of text very efficiently, and that’s what it’s made for. But it cannot think or reason; it’s just something I paid for. Upfront, a few comments on oil prices.
Global Resilience to higher rates
The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs
Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.
Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while
Oh, The Places We Could Go: on the US dollar, reserve currencies and the South China Morning Post
Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent convertible securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.
Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.
One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.
US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot
The End of the Affair. The affair with market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. A look at a world of higher inflation, more regionalized trade and investment and more capital scarcity.
Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much greater probability of recession now, the credit markets are just getting started. One canary in the coal mine: the Citrix financing, which will be followed by a string of even weaker credits. On labor markets, the Fed is facing the tightest labor supply conditions in decades. Can second chance policies easing the path to employment for people with criminal arrest records help increase the labor supply, or will the Fed have to crush the economy to restore desired levels of wage and price inflation? Lastly, an update on bivalent vaccines and inhalable vaccines, as the latter offers the best chance of actually reducing infection and transmission.
Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US economic recovery update, and big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth at a time of rising anti-trust enforcement. We conclude with a new “Investor Odds & Ends” section that covers NYC hotel/office markets and possible changes in personal, corporate and international tax rates.
COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).
Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.
The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?
The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General
Prospects for further US employment and profits growth are improving, but the US is now running the 3rd highest infection rate in the world. In infection hotspot states, governors are relying on falling mortality as the reason to make only minor policy adjustments. This week, we look at why mortality is diverging from infections and hospitalizations, and more broadly, at whether a US scientific trust gap has played a role in the recent infection surge.
Are data centers driving up your electricity bills? Learn about the factors affecting energy prices, household costs and the role of AI in power consumption.
Rising yields, lingering geopolitics, and shifting AI security risks are reshaping the outlook for stocks, bonds, and diversification as policy tightens—read our latest monthly views and perspectives (MVP) for key takeaways.
The U.S. equity market is more concentrated than ever, with over 50% tied to AI. Find out how to diversify internationally, manage taxes efficiently and access new investment opportunities in global markets.
Explore how the AI theme is driving market trends. Learn about Growth vs Value performance, Russell 1000 index shifts and the impact of semiconductors and hyperscalers on investment strategies.
Curious about how higher interest rates affect private credit and fixed income investments? Explore expert insights on bond yields, portfolio strategies and the Federal Reserve’s influence on credit markets.
Get expert insights on the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, rate hikes and economic projections. Find out how global central banks, inflation and rising yields are influencing investment decisions.
The Fed leans hawkish with inflation still above target. Read the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting now.
AI safety concerns are reshaping the tech landscape. Discover how regulation, market reactions and investment strategies are evolving in response to artificial intelligence risks.
AI labs are calling for a slowdown in model development, raising new questions for capex, adoption, and portfolio resilience—see what’s driving the discussion.
European equities gain momentum as earnings, margins, and sector participation improve, with infrastructure and energy themes driving new opportunities—see what’s fueling the shift.
Singapore equities are supported by policy credibility and resilient growth, offering a steadier market backdrop alongside income potential—read the key takeaways.
Discover how agentic AI and Chinese open-weight models are transforming AI cost efficiency and enterprise adoption. Explore the latest trends in the U.S. and China AI competition.
Private equity exits are rising in value but remain concentrated in select deals, with aging portfolios shaping risks and opportunities—see what’s next for investors.
Rising artificial intelligence (AI) investment is driving hyperscaler debt issuance. Explore how this shift in funding could reshape fixed income markets and offer investors a more defensive way to gain exposure to the AI theme.
AI investment is booming, but how much is it really boosting U.S. growth? Dive into the data, GDP impacts, productivity and Fed implications.
Asia equity earnings show broadening momentum as artificial intelligence and other drivers support participation amid shifting rates—read the highlights.
Stay ahead with expert analysis on U.S.-China AI trends, trade dynamics and investment strategies. Understand how technology and policy are reshaping global economic competitiveness.
Japan’s reflation and policy normalization are reshaping the yen, yields, and equity backdrop—see what could affect your portfolios.
Equities may handle rising bond yields until moves turn disorderly—explore how yield pace, real rates, and market composition can shape risk and returns.
Explore the tax advantages of real estate funds and REITs, including deductions, depreciation and capital gains benefits for investors seeking higher after-tax returns.
Explore how AI is moving from models to real-world adoption, creating opportunities across infrastructure, software, robotics, power and global supply chains.
Read the key insights on how rising U.S. earnings and AI and energy themes may shape markets going forward.
Explore how leveraged ETFs and thematic ETFs are amplifying market volatility and investor exuberance. Learn what momentum investing means for today’s dynamic markets.
Diversification in public markets has become challenging, making alternatives like private equity and infrastructure key diversifiers and inflation resilient return drivers—Explore more on Alternatives.
Learn how hyperscaler free cash flow, corporate bond issuance and AI-linked financing are transforming the US investment grade credit market and influencing tech spreads.
Gold’s pullback reflects shifting rates, dollar strength, and cooling demand, shaping how it diversifies portfolios and volatility ahead. Explore what to watch next.
Curious about what’s fueling the strongest S&P 500 earnings since COVID? This 2Q26 analysis reveals how AI, energy, and enterprise adoption are shaping U.S. market growth and investment strategies.
Explore key takeaways from the latest Fed meeting. Find out Chairman Warsh’s views on the economy and where interest rates may go in the near future.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
AI-driven bond issuance is reshaping credit markets, benchmarks, and risk exposures as hyperscalers fund infrastructure with debt—see what this means for portfolios.
Is the AI boom over or just getting started? Get expert analysis on AI market volatility, investment opportunities and the future of artificial intelligence stocks.
China’s growth is cooling as exports and high-tech manufacturing hold up, sharpening focus on policy support and domestic demand—read the latest investor takeaways.
Discover what’s fueling global earnings growth in 2026, from the AI investment boom and rising energy prices to currency shifts, resilient economies and improved corporate governance. See how emerging markets, the U.S., the Eurozone and Japan are exceeding expectations, even amid global challenges.
Easing oil prices reshape inflation fears and central-bank paths, affecting rates, bonds, and equities amid geopolitical risk—read the key takeaways.
Discover how U.S. stock markets perform during midterm election years. Learn about historical trends, volatility and why staying focused on fundamentals is key for investors.
Mega-cap IPOs in 2026 show why private market access is crucial. Learn how companies like SpaceX and OpenAI impact market dynamics and your investment approach.
India’s macro strength contrasts with lagging equities amid currency, inflation, and earnings worries—see why investors are cautious and what could rebuild confidence.
Stay informed on 2026 market predictions. Review AI course corrections, stagflation risks, and growth prospects, plus practical asset allocation guidance for investors seeking stability and income.
Understand the Russell index reconstitution and its influence on portfolio risk, sector shifts, and benchmark strategies. Get expert insights on managing concentration risk and optimizing asset allocation.
Are U.S. small caps better positioned than they look as earnings revisions improve, rate risks evolve, and AI-led demand broadens? Read the key takeaways.
Learn about Kevin Warsh’s debut as Federal Reserve Chair, the FOMC’s unanimous rate decision, and new economic projections. Find out how these changes affect inflation, employment, and financial markets.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
A U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could ease global risk yet keep energy costs elevated—learn what this means for the markets.
There are plenty of uncertainties facing the global economy., namely the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, potential central banks’ response to a return of inflation, possible shifts in the U.S. political and policy backdrop, and the rapidly changing landscape in AI development.
Mega-cap IPOs can reshape market liquidity and near-term volatility as capital shifts and index rules evolve—learn what to watch.
Mega-cap IPOs are set to transform markets and stock indices. Find out how these large listings affect volatility, index inclusion and investor portfolios.
Recent college graduates face a tough job market in 2026, with rising unemployment and fewer opportunities in tech and finance. Discover the real reasons behind the skills mismatch, AI’s impact, and shifting hiring trends in the U.S. economy.
China equities trail as AI reshapes winners, earnings momentum, and risk premiums—see what could drive a turnaround across platforms, hardware, and policy follow-through.
AI enthusiasm is widening beyond headline winners as compute buildouts strain cash flows and raise concentration risk—see where monetization, infrastructure, and adopters shape the next phase.
Discover how the Iran conflict is reshaping defense and security investing. Explore how rising munitions demand and new opportunities in military technology are impacting modern warfare.
Rising bond yields amid inflation, oil shocks, and fiscal concerns are changing fixed-income tradeoffs—learn what this means for portfolios today.
Learn how to outpace college inflation with effective savings and investment strategies. Find out how 529 plans offer tax advantages, flexibility and simplify the path to funding higher education.
Discover how record earnings, soaring markets, and S&P 500 concentration impact portfolio risk. Learn strategies to manage volatility and hidden overlaps in today’s investment landscape.
Asian earnings season spotlights whether tech-led gains can endure as AI demand reshapes supply chains, capex, and valuation narratives—read the takeaways now.
Strong earnings and AI-led investment are reshaping sectors from banks to chips—see what is driving momentum and where adoption matters most.
The Strait of Hormuz closure is driving up freight rates and rerouting global trade. Discover how longer voyages and higher freight rates are presenting opportunities for investors.
Oil supply disruption can reshape inflation, growth, and asset performance—see what market history suggests and what to watch next.
Middle East supply disruptions can ripple into global inflation through energy, shipping, and agriculture inputs, shaping prices and growth expectations—learn what to watch next.
Understand the effects of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Get expert insights on energy shocks, CPI forecasts and market risks.
Find out what the U.S.-China summit means for tariffs, export controls and global supply chains. Get expert insights on market trends, investment strategies and the future of international trade.
Central banks weigh inflation shocks and slowing growth amid conflict and tariffs, shaping rates and bond curves with ripple effects for portfolios and planning; learn what to watch next.
Discover how Kevin Warsh could reshape monetary policy, interest rates and market outlook. Learn what investors should expect from changes in Fed communication, inflation focus and asset allocation strategies.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
Discover how the 2026 stock market rally mirrors previous market trends. Explore sector performance, AI impact, political events and S&P 500 earnings growth in this in-depth analysis.
Semi-liquid funds expand access to private markets but can restrict withdrawals during stress. Explore how the liquidity trade-offs and fund structures can impact you.
Asian central banks may diverge as energy shocks and currency weakness shift inflation and growth tradeoffs, reshaping rate expectations and market pricing across the region—read the key takeaways.
Curious about investing in private markets? Discover how semi-liquid funds like interval funds, tender offer funds, non-traded BDCs and REITs are making private investments more accessible.
Explore expert tips on tax-loss harvesting, portfolio drift and year-round tax planning for investors. Find out how to manage capital gains and maximize refunds with smart investment strategies.
China’s latest GDP growth signals resilience amid rebalancing, with exports strong and domestic demand softer, shaping the global outlook for markets and policy—read the key takeaways.
Explore how the rise of agentic AI is driving unprecedented compute demand, causing shortages in chips, power and data center infrastructure. Learn what this means for AI investment and business strategy.
Stay ahead with the latest S&P 500 earnings outlook for the first quarter of 2026. Explore sector growth trends, profit forecasts and key market insights to guide your investment decisions.
Private credit faces scrutiny on defaults, liquidity, and software exposure, but recent fund reports show steady credit quality and returns versus public high yield—read the latest trend.
Private credit is under scrutiny—find out what’s driving investor concerns, how software industry changes can impact portfolios and why private credit remains attractive for long-term investors.
Navigate the risks and opportunities in bond investing after Treasury yields surge. See why short- and intermediate-term bonds may offer the best value in today’s market.
The Iran conflict is reshaping global markets—find out how surging oil prices, helium shortages and supply chain disruptions could affecti AI chip production and the semiconductor sector.
Market volatility, supportive policies and sector rotation are driving Value stocks’ comeback—explore the latest insights now.
Uncover the hidden volatility and sector dispersion beneath the S&P 500’s surface. Learn how geopolitical risks and AI anxieties are presenting opportunities in 2026.
Explore how energy sector profits and oil price swings shape the US economic outlook and investment opportunities.
Strait of Hormuz and Middle East routes bottlenecks elevate energy costs and stagflation risks in Asia, as central banks likely hold rates and volatility persists—Dive in and see the implications for investors.
Middle East risks keep the Fed hawkish as the March FOMC holds rates, with markets repricing rate cuts. Explore implications for the US economy and fixed income.
Fed holds as March FOMC meeting highlights inflation trends and uncertainties. Read on for the latest policy pulse and what to watch next.
Energy disruption adds volatility to assets, yet the case for disciplined diversification strengthens as yields rise and growth remains uncertain.
AI adds volatility to public markets, but private equity's long‑term case strengthens amid lower funding costs and a pick-up in deal activity.
Discover how geopolitical conflicts impact the energy sector, the S&P 500 and oil prices—and what investors should watch going forward.
Discover what is driving US productivity higher and how AI may be affecting it. Learn the key drivers today and what this means for markets.
Explore what the U.S.-Iran conflict means for oil prices, Asia's growth and inflation outlook, and the opportunities in Asian equities and real assets.
Explore the shift in China NPC's 2026 priorities to high quality growth, with focus on demand and tech, while property stimulus remains muted.
Discover the risks of passive investing in today’s shifting economic and political tides, and how they influence portfolio returns.
Discover how quantum’s long timelines and reliability gaps can fuel volatility—and how selective, diversified exposure helps investors limit drawdowns.
Discover how Iran’s conflict can drive inflation and volatility through energy shocks—and how diversification helps investors limit drawdowns.
Explore the potential scenarios and near-term market risks that could arise from the U.S. and Israel's strike on Iran.
Explore the key takeaways for oil and global markets amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, and the investment implications.
Discover who stands to gain if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac go public. Explore the impact of their IPO on mortgage rates, agency MBS, taxpayers and investors in the evolving U.S. housing market.
Explore the investment implications and opportunities in Asian equities as the U.S. tariff reset shapes winners and losers in APAC.
Explore why value stocks are gaining momentum in 2026. Get insights on how rate cuts, fiscal easing and AI capex lift cyclicals and broaden market leadership.
Explore the drivers behind the recent rise in gold, the outlook for gold prices, and the role that gold can play in a diversified investment portfolio.
The U.S. equity market was fairly muted after the SCOTUS ruling that U.S. President Trump exceeded his authority by using the IEEPA to impose "reciprocal" tariffs globally.
Explore the drivers behind the abrupt sell-off in software stocks in early 2026. Get insights on how shifting IT budgets toward AI infrastructure are reshaping sector allocation trends and the future outlook for private equity and credit investors.
Explore the drivers behind the abrupt sell-off in software stocks in early 2026. Get expert insights on AI disruption, sector allocation trends and the future outlook for private equity and credit investors.
Uncover the factors behind the impressive performance of emerging market equities in 2026. Get expert insights on earnings growth, macro trends and the future investment outlook.
Explore key factors influencing AI investment and its monetization, and the tech stock trends and strategies for navigating the evolving AI market.
Discover how the January jobs report impacts the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy. Explore key labor market trends, payroll growth and unemployment rate changes for 2026.
Mega-cap tech stocks, S&P 500 growth, and Gen-Z & Millennial spending trends are shaping the market outlook and sector performance.
Explore how investing in quality stocks can build resilient portfolios, offering stability and outperformance in uncertain market conditions.
Explore the divergence between metals and energy prices in modern markets, what drives commodity volatility, and how investors can hedge risks with smart asset allocation.
Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 signals a potential shift in U.S. monetary policy, with implications for interest rates, inflation, and financial markets.
Stay updated on the latest FOMC meeting: The Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling a hawkish stance amid solid economic growth and stable unemployment. Discover what this means for inflation, fiscal stimulus and future rate cuts.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
Explore the divergence between metals and energy prices in modern markets. Find out what drives commodity volatility and how investors can hedge risks with smart asset allocation.
Corporate bond yields remain attractive despite tight spreads and elevated risks, with income driving returns and active selection key amid full valuations and robust fundamentals.
Explore how robotics is emerging as the next frontier for AI in 2026, shifting market focus from model creators to infrastructure and real-world applications. Discover the technological breakthroughs, economic trends, commercialization challenges and investment opportunities shaping the future of AI-powered robots.
Explore how investing in quality stocks can build resilient portfolios, offering stability and outperformance in uncertain market conditions.
Explore the effects of government-backed MBS purchases on mortgage rates and housing affordability. Learn what this means for homebuyers and the future of the U.S. housing market.
Regulators are fostering a sustainable uptrend in China’s stock market, anchored by rising insurance premiums and reforms, with balanced growth and high-dividend strategies to help manage volatility in 2026.
Explore the latest trends in the AI boom for 2026, including tech stock performance, earnings growth, valuations, adoption rates and investment strategies. Discover why AI remains a compelling opportunity despite market volatility.
Stay updated on the latest December CPI report and its impact on Fed policy. Discover how inflation trends may influence interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
This paper discusses how developments within the tech sector could spill over to other sectors as AI adoption broadens over time.
Discover how AI is being monetized across infrastructure and applications, with hyperscalers investing billions in data centers, semiconductors and cloud services. Explore the evolving economics of generative AI, enterprise software pricing strategies and the critical role of diversification for investors in the rapidly expanding AI value chain.
What does U.S. intervention in Venezuela mean for oil markets, global politics and investors? Discover key insights on geopolitical risks and investment implications in this timely analysis.
Get the latest analysis on the Federal Reserve’s potential January rate cut, with insights from November’s jobs and CPI reports. Explore how government shutdown data issues impact unemployment, inflation and monetary policy expectations.
Uncover the factors influencing the future path of the US dollar and what they mean for investors.
Discover what’s driving S&P 500 stock market returns in 2025. Explore the shift from multiple expansion to robust earnings growth, the evolving impact of the Magnificent 7, and broadening profit growth across sectors like financials, industrials, utilities and materials. Learn how market volatility and sector selection shape investment strategies for a resilient equity market.
This paper discusses the possibility of further Fed rate cuts in 2026, and the investment implications.
The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% at its December meeting, signaling a continued easing bias for 2026. Explore the FOMC’s latest Summary of Economic Projections, inflation and GDP growth outlook and insights from Chairman Powell on monetary policy, risk assets and the bond market.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
Explore the 2026 outlook for hedge funds with insights on active management, alpha generation and diversification. Learn how market trends, rate volatility and global macro strategies are shaping investment opportunities.
This paper discusses the factors that could drive Singapore equities as a compelling investment opportunity within Asian equity allocations.
Discover the real impact of AI on layoffs in 2025. This expert analysis explores whether artificial intelligence is truly driving job losses or simply reshaping the workforce, with data-backed insights on industry trends, affected roles and the future of employment.
Uncover how AI megacaps are tackling innovation, business shifts, and future chip demand in a changing landscape.
Explore the recent reversal in the low-quality stock rally and discover why fundamentals matter in today’s market. Learn how speculative sectors like AI, crypto and biotech have performed versus quality stocks and get insights on where investors should focus for sustainable returns.
This paper discusses the factors surrounding Asian equities' robust 3Q25 earnings results, and the investment strategy ahead.
Discover why recent Federal Reserve rate cuts aren’t boosting consumer spending as expected. Explore the impact on holiday shopping, household debt and interest income in our latest market analysis.
This paper discusses the use cases for stablecoins, the key risks surrounding stablecoin transactions, and the investment implications.
Can nuclear power solve the energy crisis for AI data centers? Uncover the challenges, investment opportunities and market impact of uranium and small modular reactors in the U.S.
Is Big Tech’s AI-driven bond issuance a threat to credit markets? Explore expert insights on AI-related debt, sector concentration and opportunities for investors in today’s investment-grade credit market.
This paper discusses the case for Asian credit on the back of investment-grade corporates showing strong fundamentals and high-yield credit with lower default risk.
Discover how the Supreme Court’s ruling on IEEPA tariffs could impact U.S. trade policy, global tariff rates and market volatility. Learn what new tariff powers the administration may use and what it means for businesses and investors.
Learn how AI software is reshaping enterprise productivity and profit. Find out which companies are winning, the biggest integration challenges, and the future of AI monetization.
This paper discusses the impact of the tech sector and AI in driving the 3Q 2025 earnings season in the U.S., and the investment implications.
Discover which country is leading the global AI race—US or China. Explore key trends in artificial intelligence, technology investment and Asia’s growing influence in robotics and automation.
This paper discusses the interplay between energy demand and AI data centers, energy supply and current constraints, and the investment implications.
Discover the latest insights on the Federal Reserve’s October interest rate cut and what to expect at the December meeting. Learn how the government shutdown, inflation trends and funding market stress could impact future rate decisions.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
Learn how rare earth metals drive AI and tech advancements, the effects of U.S.-China trade tensions and what investors need to know about this dynamic market.
This paper discusses the recent defaults in the auto sector, and the potential implications for private credit.
This paper discusses the key takeaways from the 4th Plenum of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee, and the investment implications.
Discover how recent defaults in the auto sector and leveraged loans are impacting private credit markets. Learn what investors should watch for and how to manage credit risk in today’s evolving landscape.
Discover how evolving U.S. economic policies, global trends like economic nationalism, fiscal activism and AI adoption are reshaping investment strategies. J.P. Morgan’s latest insights reveal why traditional 60/40 portfolios may fall short and how diversified alternatives can enhance resilience and returns. Learn how to future-proof your portfolio for the next decade with thought leadership from J.P. Morgan.
This paper explores how overlapping partnerships among hyperscalers, chipmakers and model developers are reshaping AI markets with robust fundamentals.
Circular spending is accelerating in AI, but does it mean a bubble is forming? Explore how overlapping partnerships among hyperscalers, chipmakers and model developers are reshaping artificial intelligence markets with robust fundamentals.
Private equity firms are changing the game in sports. Learn about the rise in minority stakes, booming team valuations and the financial appeal of investing in professional leagues.
This paper discusses why the yield curve could steepen further with the Federal Reserve cutting rates, and the investment implications.
Uncover the reasons behind record-high U.S. stock market valuations and learn expert strategies for portfolio diversification into value stocks, international equities and corporate credit for stronger returns.
Learn how to optimize your portfolio for tax efficiency during capital gains season. Find out why ETFs outperform mutual funds in tax savings and how tax loss harvesting can help you keep more of your returns.
This paper discusses the potential policy implications of Sanae Takaichi’s election win amid concerns over fiscal deterioration and rising inflation in Japan.
Uncover the significance of stablecoins in today's financial landscape, offering stability and efficiency in decentralized transactions. Explore the GENIUS Act's role in shaping regulatory frameworks, stablecoins' applications in cross-border payments and blockchain marketplaces, and their impact on U.S. government debt and global finance.
The Solving for Income presentation uses selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.
This paper discusses the importance of sustainable investing for investors, and the latest areas of focus that clients have been asking about, such as AI, help in scouting future growth opportunities, and food security.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses why policy easing amid a soft landing backdrop should be positive for both equities and fixed income.
Insights on the 2024 U.S. general election, potential election outcomes, policy agendas and investment implications to help investors navigate the election cycle in portfolios.
Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.
Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.
Fortunately, like the experience in the U.S., this second increase in cases is not being accompanied by the same rise in fatalities as the first.
