Investment Outlook 2026
Fuel in the engine
With policy and innovation powering the global economy, investors are on a journey full of promise and potential derailments. Read our Investment Outlook 2026 to discover how diversifying across regions and sectors, and preparing for inflation or asset bubbles can help navigate the twists and turns.
Recently, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that the FOMC should modernize its target policy rate by selecting a new benchmark that more accurately reflects the marginal cost of funds for borrowers.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is likely to maintain an accommodative stance, although further rate cuts are unlikely as stability and liquidity take precedence.
We asked Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy at JPMorgan, and Robert Motroni, Portfolio Manager, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to walk us through the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s decision to cut interest rates in September, what they think the central bank might do next and how it all impacts short-term bonds and money market funds.
In today’s rapidly changing economic landscape, APAC cash investors face a unique set of challenges and opportunities. We sat down with our investment team to answer the top five questions on investors’ minds as we approach the final stretch of 2025.
Explore how diverging central bank policies, trade tensions, and de dollarisation trends are shaping global liquidity markets in 2025. Discover key risks, opportunities, and strategies for investors seeking to navigate volatility and capitalise on elevated front-end yields across Europe, the UK, and Asia Pacific.
Explore the Cash Cookbook, your essential guide seeking to craft the perfect recipe for cash and liquidity management success. This guide will help you choose the best liquidity solution to meet your organisation's liquidity needs and risk tolerance, while adapting to current market conditions.
The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.60%, citing continued moderation in inflation and further easing of the labour market. Despite growth and inflation aligning with forecasts, the RBA noted that global economic uncertainty and trade policies pose risks to Australia's outlook.
Explore the Bank of England's recent decision to cut the bank rate by 25 basis points to 4%, with insights into the unexpected voting dynamics and implications for GBP cash investors. Understand the economic context, inflation projections, and strategic opportunities amidst market uncertainty and volatility.
As we pass the midpoint of 2025, the US economy is navigating a complex landscape marked by fiscal policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and evolving monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts, coupled with the recent debt ceiling resolution, present both challenges and opportunities for money market fund investors. This brief 2H25 outlook explores the implications of these developments and offers strategic insights for cash investors seeking to navigate the current environment.
As of mid-point of 2025, APAC central banks face an increasingly complex economic outlook marked by escalating geopolitical and trade tensions. The weakened correlation with Federal Reserve policy suggests future monetary policies will be driven by regional and domestic factors.
Explore the Global Liquidity EMEA Mid-Year Investment Outlook, analysing the implications of the diverging paths taken by the ECB and BoE. Discover how these central bank policies are shaping distinct market outlooks for the euro and UK, and uncover strategic opportunities for cash investors amidst geopolitical tensions and fiscal policy shifts
Since World War II, the U.S. debt ceiling has been adjusted—either raised or suspended—more than a hundred times, with the Treasury never having depleted its cash reserves and borrowing capacity before Congressional intervention. We remain confident that the debt limit will be increased in a timely manner.
Explore the European Central Bank's recent decision to cut key policy rates by 25 basis points and its implications for inflation forecasts, market reactions, and fund positioning. Understand the ECB's strategic outlook amid trade uncertainties and discover how euro cash investors can navigate the evolving monetary landscape.
Explore the impact of renewed US trade tensions and tariff policies on global markets and liquidity investors. Discover strategic insights on inflation outlook, cross-border considerations, and front-end positioning for resilience and yield. Learn how disciplined flexibility and active management can help navigate market volatility and preserve capital in an uncertain policy environment.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, citing moderating inflation as the reason for easing monetary policy. While AUD deposit rates are declining and the yield curve has flattened, interest rates remain elevated compared to historic standards.
Moody's Ratings has downgraded the United States' long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings from Aaa to Aa1, while changing the outlook from negative to stable.
Explore the Bank of England's cautious approach following a split MPC decision to reduce the Bank Rate to 4.25%. Understand the implications for GBP cash investors amid economic uncertainty, disinflation progress, and revised growth and inflation forecasts.
Over the first three months, the Trump administration has made it clear that they are willing to trade short-term pain for potential future long-term gains.
Explore the complexities of strategic cash management in 2025 as global economies face evolving challenges. This insightful article delves into the impact of trade tensions, central bank policies, and market volatility on cash strategies, offering guidance for investors navigating uncertain macro conditions. Learn about the implications for US, European, UK, and Asia Pacific markets, and discover how money market funds and ultra-short duration strategies can provide attractive returns and flexibility.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintained its dovish stance. It slightly reduced the rate of appreciation of the SG$ NEER policy band but kept the width and centre-point unchanged.
In these uncertain economic times, understanding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the impact of global and domestic financial conditions on the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, and strategic investment approaches for liquidity investors is crucial.
As the financial landscape continues to be characterized by uncertainty and volatility, understanding how to implement effective liquidity strategies is crucial for investors seeking to find the "sweet spot" for their day-to-day investments.
As we navigate the complexities of the U.S. debt ceiling, investors should understand the potential impacts on money market investments.
Explore the European Central Bank's latest monetary policy decision as it cuts key rates by 25 basis points, moving closer to a neutral range. With geopolitical tensions rising and economic growth projections downgraded, the ECB faces a complex landscape. Discover how these changes impact cash strategies and the potential for a pause in rate cuts.
Explore the complexities of 2025's monetary policy, credit markets, and trade. Learn how central banks manage easing cycles, corporate sectors show resilience, and US tariffs impact automakers. Discover strategic investment opportunities and the importance of active management in volatile markets. Stay informed with expert analysis on navigating cash investment strategies in a complex economic landscape.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) adopted a more dovish stance by slightly reducing the slope of the SG$ NEER policy band, while keeping the width and centre-point unchanged.
The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%. This is the central bank's first rate cut since 2020, citing easing inflationary pressures and confidence in inflation moving towards the target range.
Explore the Bank of England's recent decision to cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% in a cautious move towards monetary policy easing. Discover insights from Governor Bailey on maintaining a balanced approach amid inflation and growth forecasts, and understand the implications for GBP cash investors. Read more on the strategic positioning of J.P. Morgan Global Liquidity GBP strategies in response to these changes.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25bps to 0.50%, marking the highest level since 2008, as part of its efforts to address persistent inflationary pressures and normalize interest rates.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) adopted a more dovish stance by slightly reducing the slope of the SG$ NEER policy band, while keeping the width and centre-point unchanged.
U.S. Global Liquidity investors can anticipate continued real yields across the entire global liquidity product lineup in 2025
Explore the Global Liquidity EMEA Investment Outlook 2025 with our insights on expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, ECB, and BOE. Discover how these changes may impact money market strategies and investment horizons in the US, Europe, and UK. Learn about potential economic growth challenges and strategic opportunities in the evolving global liquidity landscape.
The 2025 interest rate outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC) will be influenced by geopolitical risks, escalating trade tensions, and the Federal Reserve policy. Regional factors such as domestic economic conditions and the effectiveness of China’s stimulus will also shape central bank decisions.
At the conclusion of their December monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut their three key policy rates by 25 basis points (bps) for the third consecutive meeting.
On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago.
While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI.
This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be.
In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investments in Intel and MP Materials,...
Fair Shakes: assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR
Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two China traps, Dr. Seuss goes to Europe, a crypto update and the 2025 Top Ten list.
For three decades until 2020, US healthcare stocks generated roughly the same returns as the tech sector, and with much less volatility.
Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag.
Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsured deposits.
A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn.
With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began.
Like his predecessor Robespierre during the French Revolution, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine, focused this time around on government spending with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants.
Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
While the markets may have forced the President’s hand to change tack on tariffs, the revised announcement still entails the highest tariff rates in 100 years, subject to some necessary assumptions regarding what happens to $460 bn of US imports from China.
Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions.
Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded.
Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%-0.6% per year. Our 15th annual energy paper covers the speed of the transition, electrification, the changing planet, the high cost of decarbonization in Europe, nuclear power, the Los Angeles fires, Trump 2.0 energy policies, renewable aviation fuels, superconductivity, methane tracking and the continually wilting prospects for the hydrogen economy.
From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones. Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. In this month’s note, we include a Trump policy impact tracker, and an assessment of the statutory and constitutional challenges that Trump policies face as the administration explores the outer limits of executive power.
The sincerest form of flattery: on DeepSeek, NVIDIA, OpenAI and the futility of US chip bans. The DeepSeek episode can be two things at once: (i) a reflection of impressive Chinese AI innovation in the face of US chip bans and other restrictions, and (ii) the by-product of probable terms of service and copyright violations by DeepSeek against OpenAI. A Shakesperean irony: OpenAI may have had its terms of service violated after spending years training their own models on other people’s data. Warning: this piece is very geeky.
Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin Coolidge, the unforgiving enemies lists of Richard Nixon, the deportation policies of Dwight Eisenhower, the manifest destiny of James Polk and the isolationism of 1914-era Woodrow Wilson. American First policies announced yesterday create risks for investors since its supply side benefits collide with its inflationary tendencies; there’s not a lot of room for error at a time of elevated US equity multiples.
I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said.
A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.
For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run.
The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years.
NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending.
A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies could be as bad for recipients of Google’s shelf space payments as they are for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for owners of impaired office buildings. Most distressed sales now require discounts of 60%+ vs pre-COVID levels; the fundamentals of the office sector explain why.
From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapest levels in the 21st century with potential market and political catalysts in their favor. First, a few words on the CrowdStrike outage.
US small cap stocks were the lions of the 20th century, generating substantial returns over large cap stocks during six different extended periods of time. It has been 20 years since the last one due to a combination of poor small cap profit fundamentals, higher exposure to rising interest rates and the pricing power accruing to the largest stocks in a winner-take-all economy. Small cap has joined value stocks and non-US stocks in the trinity of severely underperforming asset allocation strategies. Relative to large cap, small cap stocks are now at their cheapest levels in the 21st century. While poor fundamentals argue against a seventh multi-year small cap outperformance regime, small cap is much closer to fair value for diversified portfolio investors.
Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden’s LNG export moratorium.
US Presidential elections: a brief primer on candidate replacement; Supreme Court decisions. As part of our ongoing coverage in the Eye on the Market of issues related to the US political process (third party candidates, the 11th and 12th amendments, the Electoral Count Reform Act, faithless electors, the No Labels movement, etc), I want to share a brief description of what we understand regarding candidate replacement procedures after the last Presidential primary and before the general election in November.
Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sports betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time.
With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide and water; and some satellite data on the immense agricultural damage occurring in Gaza and Israel. The Appendix addresses the avian flu’s impact on agriculture and the food supply.
Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: on tech valuations, AI, energy and US politics Last week I spoke to the firm’s tech CEO clients at a conference in Montana. This note is a partial summary of that presentation, entitled “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election”.
Electravision. The predominant vision for the future involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. This vision primarily relies upon the greater efficiency of electric motors and heat pumps vs their fossil fuel counterparts. While the grid is getting greener, electrification is advancing at a much slower pace for reasons related to chemistry, physics, cost, politics and human behavior. Our 14th annual energy paper takes a closer look, and also includes sections on nuclear power, China, hydrogen, “net zero oil” and Gaza’s energy future.
Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities.
This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.
Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.
A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit
Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets
A comparison of NYC to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.
I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. The bottom line: a large language model can process reams of text very efficiently, and that’s what it’s made for. But it cannot think or reason; it’s just something I paid for. Upfront, a few comments on oil prices.
Global Resilience to higher rates
The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs
Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.
Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while
Oh, The Places We Could Go: on the US dollar, reserve currencies and the South China Morning Post
Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent convertible securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.
Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.
One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.
US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot
The End of the Affair. The affair with market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. A look at a world of higher inflation, more regionalized trade and investment and more capital scarcity.
Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much greater probability of recession now, the credit markets are just getting started. One canary in the coal mine: the Citrix financing, which will be followed by a string of even weaker credits. On labor markets, the Fed is facing the tightest labor supply conditions in decades. Can second chance policies easing the path to employment for people with criminal arrest records help increase the labor supply, or will the Fed have to crush the economy to restore desired levels of wage and price inflation? Lastly, an update on bivalent vaccines and inhalable vaccines, as the latter offers the best chance of actually reducing infection and transmission.
Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US economic recovery update, and big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth at a time of rising anti-trust enforcement. We conclude with a new “Investor Odds & Ends” section that covers NYC hotel/office markets and possible changes in personal, corporate and international tax rates.
COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).
Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.
The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?
The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General
Prospects for further US employment and profits growth are improving, but the US is now running the 3rd highest infection rate in the world. In infection hotspot states, governors are relying on falling mortality as the reason to make only minor policy adjustments. This week, we look at why mortality is diverging from infections and hospitalizations, and more broadly, at whether a US scientific trust gap has played a role in the recent infection surge.
Uncover how AI megacaps are tackling innovation, business shifts, and future chip demand in a changing landscape.
Explore the recent reversal in the low-quality stock rally and discover why fundamentals matter in today’s market. Learn how speculative sectors like AI, crypto and biotech have performed versus quality stocks and get insights on where investors should focus for sustainable returns.
This paper discusses the factors surrounding Asian equities' robust 3Q25 earnings results, and the investment strategy ahead.
Discover why recent Federal Reserve rate cuts aren’t boosting consumer spending as expected. Explore the impact on holiday shopping, household debt and interest income in our latest market analysis.
This paper discusses the use cases for stablecoins, the key risks surrounding stablecoin transactions, and the investment implications.
Can nuclear power solve the energy crisis for AI data centers? Uncover the challenges, investment opportunities and market impact of uranium and small modular reactors in the U.S.
Is Big Tech’s AI-driven bond issuance a threat to credit markets? Explore expert insights on AI-related debt, sector concentration and opportunities for investors in today’s investment-grade credit market.
As we look ahead to 2026, discipline could be the defining principle for investors navigating an increasingly complex and volatile market landscape.
This paper discusses the case for Asian credit on the back of investment-grade corporates showing strong fundamentals and high-yield credit with lower default risk.
Discover how the Supreme Court’s ruling on IEEPA tariffs could impact U.S. trade policy, global tariff rates and market volatility. Learn what new tariff powers the administration may use and what it means for businesses and investors.
Learn how AI software is reshaping enterprise productivity and profit. Find out which companies are winning, the biggest integration challenges, and the future of AI monetization.
This paper discusses the impact of the tech sector and AI in driving the 3Q 2025 earnings season in the U.S., and the investment implications.
Discover which country is leading the global AI race—US or China. Explore key trends in artificial intelligence, technology investment and Asia’s growing influence in robotics and automation.
This paper discusses the interplay between energy demand and AI data centers, energy supply and current constraints, and the investment implications.
Discover the latest insights on the Federal Reserve’s October interest rate cut and what to expect at the December meeting. Learn how the government shutdown, inflation trends and funding market stress could impact future rate decisions.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
Learn how rare earth metals drive AI and tech advancements, the effects of U.S.-China trade tensions and what investors need to know about this dynamic market.
Explore how the UK Chancellor must weigh tax increases against spending cuts to resolve a fiscal shortfall.
This paper discusses the recent defaults in the auto sector, and the potential implications for private credit.
This paper discusses the key takeaways from the 4th Plenum of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee, and the investment implications.
Discover how recent defaults in the auto sector and leveraged loans are impacting private credit markets. Learn what investors should watch for and how to manage credit risk in today’s evolving landscape.
Discover how evolving U.S. economic policies, global trends like economic nationalism, fiscal activism and AI adoption are reshaping investment strategies. J.P. Morgan’s latest insights reveal why traditional 60/40 portfolios may fall short and how diversified alternatives can enhance resilience and returns. Learn how to future-proof your portfolio for the next decade with thought leadership from J.P. Morgan.
This paper explores how overlapping partnerships among hyperscalers, chipmakers and model developers are reshaping AI markets with robust fundamentals.
Circular spending is accelerating in AI, but does it mean a bubble is forming? Explore how overlapping partnerships among hyperscalers, chipmakers and model developers are reshaping artificial intelligence markets with robust fundamentals.
Private equity firms are changing the game in sports. Learn about the rise in minority stakes, booming team valuations and the financial appeal of investing in professional leagues.
This paper discusses why the yield curve could steepen further with the Federal Reserve cutting rates, and the investment implications.
Uncover the reasons behind record-high U.S. stock market valuations and learn expert strategies for portfolio diversification into value stocks, international equities and corporate credit for stronger returns.
Learn how to optimize your portfolio for tax efficiency during capital gains season. Find out why ETFs outperform mutual funds in tax savings and how tax loss harvesting can help you keep more of your returns.
This paper discusses the potential policy implications of Sanae Takaichi’s election win amid concerns over fiscal deterioration and rising inflation in Japan.
Wondering which rates will drop as the Fed cuts? Explore expert insights on the yield curve, Treasury yields and smart investment strategies for a changing bond market.
This paper discusses why ASEAN equities can act as effective diversifiers in investors’ Asian equity portfolios in light of uncertain U.S. trade policies.
Why is AI infrastructure spend soaring? Dive into the factors behind rising compute demand, the impact of hyperscalers and the changing business models shaping the future of artificial intelligence.
Discover how Federal Reserve interest rate cuts impact alternative investments like private equity, venture capital, private credit, real assets and hedge funds. Learn what investors should consider in today’s changing market.
This paper discusses the potential impact of a U.S. government shutdown on global markets, and the need for investors to diversify across asset classes.
A potential U.S. government shutdown could shake markets and investor confidence. Read our analysis of potential impacts on stocks, bonds, and economic indicators.
This paper discusses how private equity presents a viable investment opportunity on the back of high valuations and concentration in public markets, and lower rates around the corner.
Fed rate cuts are here—find out which rates are falling, which stocks to watch, and which regions may outperform. Get actionable investment insights for today’s market.
Explore how UK large-cap stocks remain a smart portfolio choice, thanks to international revenue streams, high dividend yields, and supportive policy trends.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
Explore the latest Federal Reserve rate cut, its impact on economic growth, inflation and Fed independence. Learn what this means for investors and market trends in 2025.
This paper discusses the support to Chinese equities from AI developments, anti-involution and globalization.
Discover how artificial intelligence (AI) is driving U.S. economic growth in 2025, with record investments in data centers, tech hardware, and infrastructure. Explore the impact of AI on GDP, business investment, and the future of the American economy.
Explore four potential market scenarios—accelerating growth, slow stability, recession, and stagflation—and see how each could influence your portfolio. Find actionable advice for navigating economic uncertainty.
This paper discusses the potential impact of policy rate cuts on risk assets, like equities and corporate credits.
Is the U.S. stock market overheated? Uncover insights on market cap-to-GDP ratios, tech sector influence, and smart investment moves for 2025. Learn how shifting market dynamics and sector concentration could impact your portfolio and discover strategies to manage risk and seize new opportunities.
This paper discusses the downward revision of India's 2025 earnings despite a robust macro environment, and the investment implications.
Understand the benefits of a declining USD for emerging markets. Explore how EM equities are thriving with improved capital flows and enhanced returns. Get insights into the structural and cyclical factors driving EM growth.
Is cash really king in today's volatile market? Discover why a diversified portfolio might be a smarter investment choice.
This paper discusses the resilience of China's trade amidst complicated trade dynamics, and the long-term outlook.
This paper discusses the growing importance of the private equity space, and how it can represent superior investment opportunity over small cap stocks.
Private equity vs. small cap stocks: Which offers better growth potential? Delve into the evolving investment landscape and discover where growth investors should focus their attention.
This paper explores the resilience of Asia's earnings growth for 2Q25 on the back of ongoing U.S. trade policy uncertainty and developments in AI, and the possible investment implications.
Stay informed on the U.S. dollar's trajectory in 2025 with our comprehensive updated analysis. Discover how policy uncertainty, fluctuating growth rates and shifting global capital flows are shaping currency value and influencing investor strategies.
Understand the drivers of small cap stock valuations and find out why small cap investing could offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.
This paper discusses the investment implications from the latest 2Q25 U.S. earnings update, and the strategies by companies to mitigate risks from tariff uncertainties and the inflation spike.
This paper addresses the impact of ongoing uncertainties around tariffs on trade, and the investment implications.
Explore the impact of AI on the workforce in 2025, where AI adoption is transforming roles rather than eliminating them. Uncover the macroeconomic factors contributing to the U.S. hiring slowdown and gain insights into the future of AI-driven job creation and evolving skill demands.
Explore the potential impact of US tariffs on global markets, and learn how to build more resilient portfolios that can protect against varied risks and capitalise on opportunities amid the current economic uncertainty. Updated weekly.
This paper discusses the Federal Reserve's dilemma on the back of a slowdown in labor demand and supply, and the investment implications.
Amid the uncertainty of tariffs, S&P 500 profits for 2Q25 are projected to grow by 5%, driven by tech and financial sectors. AI investments and consumer resilience offer stability, while discretionary spending on simple luxuries remains strong. Market volatility and competing sentiments, from tariff concerns to AI enthusiasm, have led to a rapid recovery. Investors find opportunities in tech and financials, with a focus on value and growth.
Explore the July FOMC meeting insights where the Federal funds rate remains steady. Discover the reasons behind the dissenting votes, Chair Powell's stance on Fed independence, and the economic outlook amid tariff impacts. Stay informed on potential September rate cuts and market expectations.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper discusses the positioning of securitized assets in portfolios on the back of pick-up in yields above U.S. Treasuries and low correlation to equities.
Discover how August's pivotal tariff deadlines could impact global trade and investment strategies. Explore key dates, including new reciprocal tariffs on major trade partners, U.S.-China negotiations and potential court rulings. Learn how these developments affect market trends, corporate earnings and the importance of diversification and active management. Stay informed on economic resilience and inflation hedging opportunities.
This paper discusses the outperformance of European equities compared to the S&P 500 in 2025, and the factors that could further drive portfolio rebalancing away from the U.S.
Explore the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and its impact on the economy, tax policy, government spending, and deficits. Discover how the OBBBA's tax cuts, spending changes, and debt ceiling adjustments could influence growth, inflation, and the labor market. Understand the potential effects on corporate profits, social programs, and investment strategies. Stay informed on the latest fiscal policy shifts and market reactions.
This paper discusses the potential for diversification of growth and income opportunities for investors within Chinese equities.
Uncover the significance of stablecoins in today's financial landscape, offering stability and efficiency in decentralized transactions. Explore the GENIUS Act's role in shaping regulatory frameworks, stablecoins' applications in cross-border payments and blockchain marketplaces, and their impact on U.S. government debt and global finance.
This paper discusses the potential impact of the OBBBA on the U.S. economy, its fiscal position and debt levels, and the investment implications.
Discover how shifting consumer spending patterns are shaping investment opportunities in 2025, with insights into resilient retail sectors and emerging trends like simple luxuries. Learn how high-income consumer behavior and economic factors like inflation are influencing the U.S. economic outlook and stock selection strategies.
This paper discusses the opportunity in real estate on the back of higher-for-longer interest rates creating dislocation and supply constraints.
This paper discusses the need for currency hedging on the back of U.S. economic slowdown and policy directions pressuring the USD downwards.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
Explore the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the Federal Funds Rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the June FOMC meeting. Understand the economic outlook, inflation, unemployment projections and the implications for investors amidst trade negotiations and fiscal stimulus uncertainties.
This paper discusses the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, and the implications on oil prices and the global economy.
Explore the advantages of global fixed income for U.S. investors, including hedging premiums and diversification benefits. Learn how Japanese government bonds and other global markets can offer higher yields when hedged back to U.S. dollars. Discover the structural features of global markets and the importance of active management in today's economic environment.
This paper discusses the impact of artificial intelligence advancement on businesses, and the investment implications.
Explore the driving forces behind the U.S. equities rally, including retail investors and corporate buybacks, as the S&P 500 overcomes volatility. Understand market valuation, earnings growth and economic uncertainty in the context of tariffs and Federal Reserve policies.
This paper discusses how commodities, especially gold, can be a valuable investment tool for diversification and hedging against global growth risks.
Explore the potential of emerging market equities in 2025 as they outperform developed markets, driven by solid fundamentals, easing trade tensions and technological innovation. Discover insights on portfolio diversification, currency valuation and the impact of AI adoption on investment strategies.
Discover how businesses are leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency and drive innovation. Explore the latest advancements from tech giants like Microsoft and Google and learn how sectors such as financial services are integrating AI for compliance, risk management and client service.
This paper discusses the possibility of the U.S. economy continuing to slow given materially higher tariff levels and lagged effects from earlier escalations, and the investment implications.
Discover how value stocks can "policy-proof" portfolios amidst market volatility and policy changes. Explore insights on tariffs, reindustrialization and deregulation, and learn how diversified equity exposure strengthens portfolios in dynamic market conditions. Ideal for investors seeking strategies to navigate economic uncertainties and capitalize on market opportunities.
Explore the implications of Moody's recent downgrade of the United States credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. Understand how this shift impacts market volatility, fiscal policy and investor strategies. Discover key takeaways for global diversification and insights into the U.S.'s fiscal challenges. Stay informed with expert analysis on the evolving financial landscape and its effects on investment opportunities.
This paper discusses the reasons for Moody's downgrade of the U.S., and the implications for markets and investors.
This paper discusses the impact of a weaker U.S. economy and supportive monetary policies across Asia on Asian growth, and the investment implications.
Against a backdrop of shifting tariffs and the rewriting of trade relationships, global currencies have been in flux. Entering 2024 at a two-year high, the U.S. dollar index has since surrendered over 7% of its value against a basket of major currencies.
This paper discusses the resiliency and flexibility of private credit structures, and the possible risks associated during a challenging economic environment.
Explore the latest developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations, including temporary tariff reductions and their impact on global markets. Understand key issues such as trade deficits, fentanyl tariffs and strategic product considerations that could shape future economic policies and international relations.
This paper, written by Adrian Wong, highlights Asian equities' resilience amid tariff uncertainties, offering diversification with undemanding valuations.
Explore the resilience of private credit as it faces potential economic challenges. Discover how this $1.6 trillion asset class has grown, the risks it faces today and the strategies investors can use to navigate higher interest rates, tariffs and economic uncertainty.
Explore the factors behind the US dollar's recent peak valuation, find out why the dollar is expected to decline gradually from here, and discover strategies for managing currency exposures amid evolving economic and trade dynamics.
This paper discusses the reasons why APAC could be more cushioned to withstand an economic downturn in the U.S. this time around, and the investment implications.
Explore the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at its May meeting, despite economic uncertainties and tariff impacts. Understand the implications for future policy adjustments and how investors can navigate the current financial landscape.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper discusses the strong first quarter U.S. earnings data points on the back of tariff uncertainty and a lower U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.
Investors are grasping at straws as the outlook for tariffs – and therefore the economy and markets – remains decidedly unclear. Economic data is inherently backward-looking, providing little indication of how the economy is absorbing tariff increases on imported goods, which vaulted from an average of 2.3% in 2024, to 12% at the end of March, to approximately 19% today.
Find out how regional diversification and income strategies—from the income available from dividend-paying stocks, or the additional income provided by premiums from covered call options—could help investors maintain a more defensive equity market exposure in the current volatile market environment.
Explore how recent U.S. policy changes are reshaping global investment strategies. Discover the role of international equities as key diversifiers amid economic uncertainty and learn about the shifting dynamics in global equity returns, currency movements and market expectations in 2025.
This paper discusses the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar as a result of both policy and economic reasons, and the investment implications.
Explore the implications of the U.S. AI Diffusion Rule on semiconductor investments, as new export controls reshape global chip supply chains, impact tech stocks and challenge geopolitical dynamics.
This paper discusses how investors can diversify their portfolios during market volatility with liquid alternatives, risk management and tactical asset allocation for capital preservation and potential gains.
Explore the history of U.S. tariff policies and their economic impacts in this insightful blog by Mary Park Durham. From the McKinley tariffs of 1890 to the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, discover how past tariff experiments shaped industries, consumer prices, and trade relations.
This paper discusses the latest GDP and economic activity numbers in China and the factors that may impact strong growth for the rest of 2025, along with the investment implications.
Explore strategies for investors to diversify portfolios during market volatility with liquid alternatives, risk management and tactical asset allocation for capital preservation and potential gains.
Discover the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields influenced by Federal Reserve policy and inflationary trade war effects. Learn about the market dynamics and investment opportunities amidst these changes.
This paper discusses the factors surrounding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, and the investment implications.
Explore how global markets and countries are responding to recent U.S. tariff announcements, with insights into China's retaliatory measures, the European Union's strategic delays, and Southeast Asia's conciliatory approaches.
This paper discusses the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.
Explore the vulnerabilities of mega-cap tech stocks amid rising tariff tensions and global supply chain disruptions. Discover how trade wars and economic shifts are impacting market dynamics, investor strategies, and the future of AI-driven innovation in 2025.
This paper addresses the potential impacts of the universal and reciprocal tariffs announced by the U.S. on 2nd April, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the major tariff announcements by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.
Discover the effects of President Trump's new tariffs on global trade and investment strategies. Learn about potential economic impacts and how to navigate trade turmoil with diversification and active management.
Discover the key market dynamics of 1Q 2025, including tariff uncertainty, trade policies, and economic projections, and their impact on U.S. and international markets, commodities, and investor sentiment.
Explore the industrial sector's outlook post-election, exploring reshoring, energy and M&A impacts, with insights on key opportunities and challenges for investors.
Discover investment opportunities from the ASCE's 2025 Report Card, which rates U.S. infrastructure a C grade. Learn how infrastructure investments offer stability, inflation protection and potential in public-private partnerships and energy transitions.
This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of a diversified portfolio to manage market volatility and capture potential recovery upside.
This paper discusses the tariff proposed and implemented by the Trump administration, and what to expect on April 2nd and the potential impact.
Explore the Federal Reserve's March 2025 policy decisions, economic outlook, and investment strategies amidst rising uncertainty and stagflation risks.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
Explore the potential market scenarios in 2025 with Meera Pandit's insightful analysis on tariff turmoil, trade truces, tax cuts, tech tumbles, and inflation spikes. Discover how these scenarios could impact equities, yields, and your investment portfolio. Learn about the importance of diversification and alternative investments in navigating volatile markets.
This paper discusses the slowdown in growth in the U.S. economy and the possibility of a recession on the back of policy uncertainty, and the investment implications.
Traditional investment wisdom holds that when stocks zig, bonds zag, creating natural portfolio diversification. However, when inflation becomes the focus of investors and central banks, this relationship can break down.
This paper addresses the case for defensive and income seeking strategies on the back of growing uncertainties around government policies, geopolitics and monetary policies.
Discover the driving forces behind the impressive 15.1% rise in Eurozone equities in 2025. Explore how fiscal policies, structural changes and key sectors like Defense and Aerospace and Banks are fueling growth. Learn about the impact of geopolitical events, government spending and market dynamics on Eurozone's economic outlook. Stay informed with expert insights and analysis on the sustainability of this market rally.
This paper discusses the key takeaways from the Chinese NPC annual session, and the investment implications for Chinese and Asian investors based off recent market volatility.
Explore the February Jobs Report with insights into payroll growth, sector performance, unemployment trends, and wage dynamics. Understand the implications for investors and the Federal Reserve amidst economic uncertainties. Ideal for institutional clients and qualified investors seeking a comprehensive analysis of current labor market conditions.
Explore the investment implications of recent tariff increases amidst trade turmoil. Discover strategies for navigating economic uncertainty, including asset diversification, quality risk exposure, and active management. Learn how tariffs impact growth, inflation and key industries, and gain insights into effective investing amidst policy changes.
This paper discusses how investors can manage the concentration risk in the global equity markets, and the investment implications from diversifying across indices, geographies and asset classes.
Explore the AI Capex Boom as leading U.S. tech companies invest heavily in AI infrastructure, driving economic growth and productivity. Discover the implications for investors and the global economy, and learn how to navigate the evolving AI landscape with a diversified approach.
Explore the potential of small cap earnings in 2025 with Meera Pandit's insightful analysis. Discover why small cap stocks, despite an estimated 39% earnings growth, may face significant revisions and challenges. Learn about historical trends, economic factors, and investment strategies that could impact small, mid, and large cap equities.
This paper discusses the motivation and impact of the proposed U.S. tariffs on its trading partners, and the investment implications.
The Solving for Income presentation uses selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.
Explore the sustainability of European equities' strong performance in 2025. Gabriela Santos analyzes the factors driving market gains, including cyclical recovery and structural changes, while highlighting potential risks like U.S. tariffs. Discover insights into global equity valuations and the future of international markets.
Using selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of fixed income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.
This paper discusses the impact of higher tariffs and lower immigration on the U.S. economy, and the uncertainty accompanied by the rapid pace of the executive orders initiated by U.S. President Trump.
This paper discusses U.S. President Trump's trade and foreign policy approach, and the possible impact of reciprocal tariffs on markets.
Explore the potential impacts of President Trump's "Fair and Reciprocal Plan" on global trade, focusing on how reciprocal tariffs could affect the European Union and emerging markets. Understand the complexities of non-tariff barriers and the economic implications for investors and industries. Stay informed with insights on international trade dynamics and market vulnerabilities.
This paper discusses the upward trend in Chinese equities in 2025 on the back of the recent AI developments, and how more positive macro catalysts can help further sustain this market and investor sentiment.
This paper, written by Adrian Wong, discusses the attractiveness of Asian equities on the back of 4Q earnings releases, and the investment implications.
Explore the January CPI report's impact on inflation trends and the Fed's stance on interest rates. Discover insights into core inflation, energy prices, labor market dynamics and tariff effects. Understand how these factors influence inflation expectations and the Fed's cautious approach amid potential trade wars. Stay informed on economic indicators and their implications for future monetary policy.
Discover the risks of passive investing in today’s shifting economic and political tides, and how they influence portfolio returns.
Discover how savvy investors can turn market volatility into opportunity with active tax management. Learn strategies to harvest tax savings and generate alpha in 2025's unpredictable market landscape.
This paper addresses the case for transport assets as a means for portfolio diversification on the back of broader trade uncertainty and economic volatility.
This paper discusses the importance of sustainable investing for investors, and the latest areas of focus that clients have been asking about, such as AI, help in scouting future growth opportunities, and food security.
This paper addresses why the Indian market continues to remain a promising investment opportunity in spite of recent downturn in macroeconomic and market performance.
Robust profit growth expectations and lofty S&P 500 price targets suggest investors are optimistic about 2025. However, there is deep uncertainty around how tariffs and tax reform may unfold, but 2018 can offer clues as to how these policies could impact profits, corporate activity, and market performance.
For the past two years, U.S. equities could do no wrong. Since the start of 2023, the S&P 500 has rallied 63%, made 58 new all-time highs with 15% lower volatility than average.
After a stimulus-fueled rally in 3Q24, Chinese equities have recently stumbled, declining 3.2% since the U.S. election. Domestically, challenges like policy uncertainty and real estate sluggishness persist, while externally, new risks are emerging.
Find out how US tariffs may impact markets and learn strategies for investing during rising trade tensions. Explore inflation risks, market dynamics and the potential investment implications
This paper addresses the recent trade tensions caused by the imposition of heavy tariffs by U.S. President Trump on Mexico, Canada and China, and the investment implications.
Washington has been a hub of excitement for investors in recent weeks. However, the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting provided a welcome change of pace with few surprises.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
A Chinese startup has disrupted the AI landscape and sent shockwaves through markets. DeepSeek, a newly released large-language model (LLM), challenges the dominance of tech giants by boasting similar performance despite using less sophisticated chips and functioning at a fraction of the cost.
Mexico and Canada took the spotlight this week after President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on its USMCA partners starting February 1st., as well as an investigation into unfair trade practices by China and others.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the spike in developed market government bond yields in recent weeks on the back of political and economic circumstances, and the investment implications.
High hopes for the U.S. equity market this year are underpinned by expectations of robust corporate profits, and early indications of 4Q24 earnings have not disappointed.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the China 4Q 2024 GDP results on the back of policy stimulus measures, and the need to maintain policy consistency heading into 2025.
Natural disasters impose severe hardships on families and communities, and our thoughts are with those affected by the wildfires in Southern California.
Over the past two years, healthcare stocks have experienced significant outflows and underperformance relative to the broader market, despite positive catalysts like innovation and weight-loss drugs.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses U.S. equity investment, highlighting the importance of fundamentals, and managing portfolio during market fluctuations.
The spread between the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, commonly referred to as the yield curve spread, is a vital indicator in financial markets and is closely monitored by investors and the Federal Reserve, particularly given the historical efficacy of its inversion predicting U.S. recessions.
2024 was a busy year. Global economic growth diverged amidst elevated uncertainty; nearly half of the world's population went to the polls, igniting debates around policy; inflation eased across major economies, with policymakers seemingly successful in engineering a "soft landing"; and risk assets performed well, though the dispersion of returns across asset classes widened.
This paper discusses the near-term pains that await Asian economies from the proposed U.S. tariffs, and how Asia can navigate this trade uncertainty from a long-term perspective.
To conclude the year, tariffs have once again become a focal point, with Google searches for the term spiking in November and December.
At its final meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the Federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%, cutting rates by a 100 basis points (bps) or 300bps annualized in 2024.
At its final meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the Federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%, cutting rates by a 100 basis points (bps) or 300 bps annualized in 2024.
This paper addresses the challenges that lie ahead for Asian equities in 2025 amid trade tensions and a strong U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.
As Paul Krugman famously stated in 1990, “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.” By boosting productivity, an economy can enhance its standard of living by producing more with the same or fewer resources. In essence, productivity is a key driver of economic prosperity.
This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the potential impact of U.S. government policy changes on alternative assets.
Today, investors are trying to understand the “series of tubes” that enable artificial intelligence. Behind every interaction with an AI tool is not only a complex web of digital neural networks, but also a humming physical network of data centers, electricity lines and power plants.
This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu, addresses the broader impact of potential U.S. tariffs on China, and the investment implications.
The alternative investment landscape often evolves gradually. Assets may be priced infrequently and therefore are less sensitive to day-to-day market moves.
Japanese equities are in the spotlight, but investors should be mindful of the risks as well as the opportunities
A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses why policy easing amid a soft landing backdrop should be positive for both equities and fixed income.
Insights on the 2024 U.S. general election, potential election outcomes, policy agendas and investment implications to help investors navigate the election cycle in portfolios.
Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.
Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.
Fortunately, like the experience in the U.S., this second increase in cases is not being accompanied by the same rise in fatalities as the first.
