US election 2024
The US election campaign is over, but what do the results mean for investors? Karen Ward, Chief Market Strategist for EMEA, discusses the potential market impact with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist.
At the conclusion of their December monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut their three key policy rates by 25 basis points (bps) for the third consecutive meeting.
Explore insights for cash investors navigating the widening economic divergence between the US and Europe. Discover how J.P. Morgan's liquidity strategies are positioned to capitalise on current market conditions, focusing on credit quality and duration management amidst varying central bank policies and recession risks.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to lower the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, with Governor Andrew Bailey emphasizing a cautious approach due to the UK budget's economic impact. The committee plans to continue gradual, quarterly rate reductions, focusing on progress in services inflation before making further adjustments.
Explore the ECB's October strategic rate cuts amid economic uncertainty. Discover how data-driven decisions shape monetary policy and market reactions, with insights from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Stay informed on the latest economic forecasts and implications for cash investors.
Explore the benefits of standard money market strategies amid non-recessionary rate cuts, including higher yields and extended Weighted Average Maturity (WAM). Understand why cash investors are increasingly opting for these strategies.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took the first step in easing monetary policy with a long-anticipated cut to the federal funds target rate of 50 basis points to 4.75-5.00%.
Explore the European Central Bank's recent decision to cut interest rates and its data-dependent approach to future monetary policy. Understand the implications for inflation, GDP growth, and market reactions, as well as strategies for EUR cash investors
Explore how major central banks' policy adjustments are impacting liquidity investment strategies. Learn about the anticipated rate cuts, strong credit fundamentals, and how to adapt investment strategies in the current economic environment.
The ECB and BoE are cautiously approaching rate cuts, with decisions being heavily data-dependent. The ECB is expected to continue cutting rates at alternate meetings into 2025, while the UK base rate may remain unchanged in the near term. Both central banks are balancing the need to support economic growth with the risk of resurgent inflation.
Moderating inflation has allowed central banks to shift their focus towards fostering economic growth, signaling an impending monetary policy pivot. While markets have quickly priced in multiple rate cuts, the pace and magnitude of central bank actions remain uncertain. For APAC cash investors, the implications of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy continues to be significant; but local inflation, economic conditions, and political nuances will also influence regional cash investment strategies.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a narrow majority of 5-4 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%. This is the first cut since March 2020. Governor Andrew Bailey stressed a cautious approach and said the Bank of England (BoE) is alert to risks of another surge in inflation.
On 22 July, the People’s Bank of China cut its 7-day Reverse Repo rate and Loan Prime Rate by 10 basis points. The decision shows the central bank is shifting its focus to the 7-day Open Market Operation rate as its new policy benchmark.
Predicting and timing a rate-cutting cycle is challenging. Focusing on what they can control can help cash investors to capture current yields while strategically positioning for future rate declines.
At its monetary policy meeting on the 6 June, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). The rate cut was broadly signalled by the central bank and widely expected by investors.
Singapore and HK interest rates have moved sharply higher over the past few years, abetted by a high correlation with US monetary policy. However, they have echoed rather than mirrored the upward trend in US interest rates.
Falling inflation across APAC has raised expectations of rapid central bank rate cuts to boost flagging domestic growth – however APAC central banks appear reluctant to diverge from the Fed.
With US inflation finally trending downwards, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has pivoted to a more dovish bias, although the timing and extent of future rate cuts remains uncertain. Across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, inflation is also declining, raising the prospect of lower regional interest rates. However, the impact will likely be more variable due to country-specific nuances.
With Q1 '24 underway, Kyongsoo Noh answers the top five questions on the minds of liquidity investors.
At its first monetary policy meeting of 2024, the RBA left its OCR unchanged at 4.35%. The decision was in-line with market expectations, although the tone of the accompanying statement was more hawkish than expected.
The BoE held the Bank Rate steady at 5.25% for the fourth consecutive meeting but removed their bias towards the next move being another hike in rates. Notably, the decision was not unanimous as two members continued to vote for a 25 basis point (bp) hike, while one member voted for a 25bp cut leaving six members, including the Governor voting for unchanged rates.
On 29th January, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) decided to maintain the prevailing rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band, with no change to its width nor centre point.
At its first monetary policy meeting of the year on 25 January 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept all key interest rates on hold. This was the third consecutive meeting to conclude with no change to monetary policy, with the last rate hike occurring in September 2023.
BOE voted to maintain Bank rate at 5.25% (6:3 split for hike) again. The Panel maintained its guidance that rates would need to be “sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long” to curb inflation.
At its monetary policy meeting on 14th December 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept all key interest rates on hold, for a second consecutive meeting. The ECB announced that reinvestments of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), will decrease by 50% from July 2024. President Lagarde stated that the Governing Council (GC), will not let its guard down, in the fight against inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds target range unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as anticipated. However, the quarterly update for the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested a dovish bias, with the “dots” pointing towards three cuts for next year, with a rate at the end of 2024 of 4.50-4.75%. The market reacted by increasing expectations for rate cuts in 2024, pricing in cuts more aggressively than the Fed.
At their last monetary policy meeting of the year on 5 December, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35%. This was in line with market expectations.
At its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on 13 October, the MAS decided to maintain its prevailing monetary policy stance Fig 1a for a second meeting - following five previous upward adjustments. The decision was In-line with expectations, with the central bank leaving the slope, band width, and mid-point of SGD NEER unchanged.
At Michele Bullock’s first monetary policy meeting as the Governor, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 4.10%. This was the fourth pause in the central bank’s rate hiking cycle.
I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said.
A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.
For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run.
The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years.
NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending.
A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies could be as bad for recipients of Google’s shelf space payments as they are for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for owners of impaired office buildings. Most distressed sales now require discounts of 60%+ vs pre-COVID levels; the fundamentals of the office sector explain why.
From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapest levels in the 21st century with potential market and political catalysts in their favor. First, a few words on the CrowdStrike outage.
US small cap stocks were the lions of the 20th century, generating substantial returns over large cap stocks during six different extended periods of time. It has been 20 years since the last one due to a combination of poor small cap profit fundamentals, higher exposure to rising interest rates and the pricing power accruing to the largest stocks in a winner-take-all economy. Small cap has joined value stocks and non-US stocks in the trinity of severely underperforming asset allocation strategies. Relative to large cap, small cap stocks are now at their cheapest levels in the 21st century. While poor fundamentals argue against a seventh multi-year small cap outperformance regime, small cap is much closer to fair value for diversified portfolio investors.
Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden’s LNG export moratorium.
US Presidential elections: a brief primer on candidate replacement; Supreme Court decisions. As part of our ongoing coverage in the Eye on the Market of issues related to the US political process (third party candidates, the 11th and 12th amendments, the Electoral Count Reform Act, faithless electors, the No Labels movement, etc), I want to share a brief description of what we understand regarding candidate replacement procedures after the last Presidential primary and before the general election in November.
Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sports betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time.
With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide and water; and some satellite data on the immense agricultural damage occurring in Gaza and Israel. The Appendix addresses the avian flu’s impact on agriculture and the food supply.
Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: on tech valuations, AI, energy and US politics Last week I spoke to the firm’s tech CEO clients at a conference in Montana. This note is a partial summary of that presentation, entitled “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election”.
Electravision. The predominant vision for the future involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. This vision primarily relies upon the greater efficiency of electric motors and heat pumps vs their fossil fuel counterparts. While the grid is getting greener, electrification is advancing at a much slower pace for reasons related to chemistry, physics, cost, politics and human behavior. Our 14th annual energy paper takes a closer look, and also includes sections on nuclear power, China, hydrogen, “net zero oil” and Gaza’s energy future.
Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities.
This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.
Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.
A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit
Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets
A comparison of NYC to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.
I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. The bottom line: a large language model can process reams of text very efficiently, and that’s what it’s made for. But it cannot think or reason; it’s just something I paid for. Upfront, a few comments on oil prices.
Global Resilience to higher rates
The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs
Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.
Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while
Oh, The Places We Could Go: on the US dollar, reserve currencies and the South China Morning Post
Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent convertible securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.
Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.
One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.
US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot
The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it.
The End of the Affair. The affair with market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. A look at a world of higher inflation, more regionalized trade and investment and more capital scarcity.
A discussion of the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX and three rules for investors: the Gensler Rule, the Sirens Rule and the Summers Rule. Our 2023 Outlook will be released as usual on January 1st.
A preliminary read on midterm election results given the context of prevailing market and economic conditions.
My list of things I am thankful for this year: CH4, HR4346 and mRNA-1273. Of course, your mileage may vary.
Three reruns for investors. First, in almost every post-war bear market, equity declines preceded the fall in earnings, growth and employment. As a result, we’re more focused on changes in manufacturing surveys than on the other victims of a recession as a sign of the bottom. Second, Graham Allison’s rising power conflict analysis and its historical precedents come back into focus with the latest US policies cutting off high performance semiconductor exports to China. Third, another press article on a small country as a prototype for a renewable future that does not address its irrelevance for larger developed or developing economies.
Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much greater probability of recession now, the credit markets are just getting started. One canary in the coal mine: the Citrix financing, which will be followed by a string of even weaker credits. On labor markets, the Fed is facing the tightest labor supply conditions in decades. Can second chance policies easing the path to employment for people with criminal arrest records help increase the labor supply, or will the Fed have to crush the economy to restore desired levels of wage and price inflation? Lastly, an update on bivalent vaccines and inhalable vaccines, as the latter offers the best chance of actually reducing infection and transmission.
Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.
The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. A close look at some very anomalous charts on shipping, semiconductors, inventories, labor shortages, foreclosures and mortality.
Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology BI66 “The Origins of COVID” has been cancelled until further notice.
Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US economic recovery update, and big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth at a time of rising anti-trust enforcement. We conclude with a new “Investor Odds & Ends” section that covers NYC hotel/office markets and possible changes in personal, corporate and international tax rates.
COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).
Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.
The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?
The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General
Prospects for further US employment and profits growth are improving, but the US is now running the 3rd highest infection rate in the world. In infection hotspot states, governors are relying on falling mortality as the reason to make only minor policy adjustments. This week, we look at why mortality is diverging from infections and hospitalizations, and more broadly, at whether a US scientific trust gap has played a role in the recent infection surge.
To conclude the year, tariffs have once again become a focal point, with Google searches for the term spiking in November and December.
At its final meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the Federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%, cutting rates by a 100 basis points (bps) or 300bps annualized in 2024.
At its final meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the Federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%, cutting rates by a 100 basis points (bps) or 300 bps annualized in 2024.
This paper addresses the challenges that lie ahead for Asian equities in 2025 amid trade tensions and a strong U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.
As Paul Krugman famously stated in 1990, “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.” By boosting productivity, an economy can enhance its standard of living by producing more with the same or fewer resources. In essence, productivity is a key driver of economic prosperity.
This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the potential impact of U.S. government policy changes on alternative assets.
Today, investors are trying to understand the “series of tubes” that enable artificial intelligence. Behind every interaction with an AI tool is not only a complex web of digital neural networks, but also a humming physical network of data centers, electricity lines and power plants.
This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu, addresses the broader impact of potential U.S. tariffs on China, and the investment implications.
The alternative investment landscape often evolves gradually. Assets may be priced infrequently and therefore are less sensitive to day-to-day market moves.
Bitcoin has staged a remarkable rally this year, doubling in price to nearly $100,000. As of today, it is near an all-time high.
This paper discusses the various drivers apart from corporate reforms that provide positive sentiment to the Japanese equity market, and the investment implications.
The dominance of Big Tech in digital services has enabled them to scale and grow in unprecedented ways, but has also raised concerns about their expanding power.
This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the impact of a U.S. corporate tax rate cut on corporate earnings, and the investment implications.
Former Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen described the first episode of balance sheet drawdown from 2017-2019 to be “like watching paint dry”.
Today’s economic environment differs meaningfully from 2018—while the inflation heatwave is mostly past us, its embers are still alive.
In our 2025 Market Outlook, we address 9 frequently asked questions by investors in the region and beyond. We hope our insights can help you navigate the road ahead, on the way to your investment objectives.
This paper addresses the current market stability and investor confidence in the U.S. debt situation keeping in mind the long-term risks, and the investment implications.
In 2018, the U.S. corporate tax rate was slashed from 35% to 21% when the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) went into effect. On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump proposed a further reduction from 21% to 15%, specifying this would apply to companies that make their products in America.
With the U.S. election results settled, investors are now evaluating the economic policy implications. U.S. risk assets are buoyed by the ongoing soft landing and prospects of deregulation and lower corporate taxes.
This paper discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar since September, driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields and President-elect Trump's policy stance, and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%, and the investment implications.
In its penultimate meeting of 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%.
This paper, written by David Kelly, Gabriela Santos and Stephanie Aliaga, discusses the potential Republican sweep in the U.S. elections, and the investment implications.
Former President Trump has been declared the winner of the U.S. Presidential election, securing the Electoral College and likely the popular vote. Republicans regained control of the Senate and are expected to gain control of the House as well.
This paper addresses the stabilization of S&P 500 earnings in the U.S. on the back of normalizing in growth and inflation, and the investment implications.
From COVID stress, to a blowout recovery, to an earnings recession, to prodigious growth from the biggest names in Tech, earnings have been through a lot these past few years. But as growth and inflation normalize, so too should earnings.
Since the Fed’s jumbo 50 basis point rate cut in September, U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield have risen by 54bps and 59bps to 4.15% and 4.29%, respectively.
This paper discusses the consumption outlook and the related impact of the policy stimulus in China from the lens of Chinese households' balance sheets and their vulnerabilities.
With the U.S. elections just a week away and polls indicating a tight race, investors are closely assessing potential impacts for currency markets.
Uncover the challenges and opportunities shaping Europe's economic future.
If the U.S. economy were a pop star, it might be peak Taylor Swift. On nearly every major measure of economic health, the economy is in great shape and far ahead of its developed market peers.
Housing inventories remain near record lows, yet builders are not increasing construction volumes enough to sufficiently meet demand. Why aren't builders ramping up activity?
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the stimulus measures adopted by Chinese policy makers in response to deflationary risks, and the need for clearer future plans amid economic uncertainties.
The combination of the stimulus announcement plus cheap valuations and underweight positions resulted in a surge in net flows into Chinese equities summing up to $12.7 billion from September 24th to October 14th.
This article addresses the U.S. dollar's varied performance against Asian currencies and factors affecting various currencies' strength.
Recent years have seen a significant acceleration in clean energy investment and grid decarbonization alongside the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act passed in August 2022.
Explore the UK equity market's potential for recovery. Learn how shifts in corporate behaviour, supportive policies and an economic upswing can help drive demand for UK stocks.
After retracing 8.5% by early August, the S&P 500 had just about fully recovered by the end of the month, and subsequently powered to new highs after the Federal Reserve delivered a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of quality fixed income in a diversified portfolio amid diverse economic and monetary policy landscapes.
This paper addresses the impact of Beijing’s coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.
Chinese equities had a spectacular end to September, with the MSCI China up 21% from September 24th to 30th. The catalyst was the announcement of a series of economic stimulus measures focused on the housing market, domestic consumption, and the stock market.
Explore the fiscal challenges and tough choices facing the UK's new chancellor, Rachel Reeves, as she prepares her first budget.
Utilities have traditionally been known for their defensive properties, which makes the combination of robust economic growth, technological excitement and elevated bond yields an unlikely recipe for their outperformance.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the impact of Beijing's coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.
Utilities have traditionally been known for their defensive properties, which makes the combination of robust economic growth, technological excitement and elevated bond yields an unlikely recipe for their outperformance.
Emerging market equities sold off along with other markets in early August. However, they have since rebounded 8%, bringing YTD performance to 11%. While China lags due to ongoing economic challenges, recent developments have sparked a small recovery.
This paper addresses the investment opportunities in ASEAN equities on the back of attractive valuations and robust income generation.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
The relative strength and direction of the U.S. dollar matters: trade balances can fluctuate, multinational corporations can see foreign sales rise or fall and U.S. dollar-denominated investors in international markets can see returns amplified or diminished.
In a highly anticipated decision, the FOMC voted to lower the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75%-5.00%, a larger-than-expected move and their first move lower since March 2020.
The change is most evident in international trade data. China's share of U.S. imports peaked at 22% in 2018 during the U.S.-China trade conflicts and sits at 11.5% as of June 2024.
The August CPI report showed further progress in inflation making its way down to 2%, setting the Fed up to begin normalizing monetary policy next week with a quarter point rate cut.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the opportunities for investors in real estate markets on the back of expected decline in interest rates and bond yields.
In this piece, we compare the proposals of Vice-President Harris and former President Trump across taxes, trade and immigration, and the potential market implications of different election outcomes.
Elevated public market valuations, historically low bond yields and positive stock-bond correlation are all challenges facing the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Moving forward, investors may need to rely on alternative asset allocations to enhance return, income, and diversification in their portfolios.
Understand why the US labour market is cooling and what it means for the economy.
This paper addresses the historical impact of "soft landings" and "hard landings" on asset classes, and how investors can position themselves with Fed rate cuts looming.
“The time has come” was a memorable phrase from Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. After a few false dawns this year, Federal Reserve rate cuts are imminent, with the discussion now shifting to how quickly rates will come down.
This paper addresses the flexibility of Asian central banks to cut rates amidst easing inflation and robust recovery in currencies, and the investment implications on Asian equities and fixed income.
Interest rate expectations have changed wildly since the start of the year. While these expectations will continue to evolve as new data are released, one thing seems clear: the Federal Reserve will begin its rate cutting cycle this year, and it will cut by more in 2024 than it had previously telegraphed.
This paper addresses the underperformance of the South Korean market despite strong earnings outlook, improving corporate governance and regulatory reforms, and steady macroeconomic outlook.
Explore our article on whether a slowing US economy challenges expectations for corporate earnings.
Markets have largely rebounded from the volatility of the past two weeks. The S&P 500 has recovered 3.0% after a 4.8% decline, U.S. Growth equities have risen 4.3% following a 5.5% drop, and the VIX has settled at 20.7, after spiking to 55.1, its highest level since March 2020.
This paper addresses how China has strengthened its self sufficiency in automobile and technology sectors, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the 2Q24 U.S. earnings season, with the eagerly anticipated broadening out of earnings growth for the companies outside the Magnificent 7, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the recent market volatility in the U.S. and Asia on the back of the release of the U.S. July jobs report and latest Federal Reserve commentary, and the investment implications.
Large moves were seen in Japanese markets, which dropped 6% on Friday (8/2) and another 12% on Monday (8/5), marking the worst daily sell-off since 1987.
Equity markets are defying gravity. From the beginning of 2023 through the first quarter of 2024, despite widespread calls for a recession, the S&P 500 returned 40% with 6% earnings growth.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%, but hinted rate cuts are on the horizon.
This paper discusses the BoJ’s decision to hike rates and reduce the pace of its JGB purchases in its latest policy meeting, and the investment implications.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper discusses whether the strength of the rotation into U.S. small caps is premature given weak fundamentals.
Mega-cap tech has enjoyed a long winning streak, but the stars recently began to align for the underdogs to take the lead.
This paper discusses the investment implications of the latest economic data release from China and the policy rate cut by the PBoC.
With the U.S. election approaching, potential U.S. policy changes are a key concern for global investors. After most U.S. elections, the MSCI EM Index has had positive performance in the 100 days following.
Later this month will mark a year since the last rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Historically, the end of a hiking cycle should have been an opportune time to extend duration by deploying cash into high quality intermediate fixed income securities.
This paper discusses how improving economic data can convince the BoJ to normalize monetary policy, and help Japan's earnings growth to outpace the U.S. and Europe in 2024-25.
While French politics are somewhat unique, the New Popular Front’s victory is the second win for a left-wing party so far this month after a strong defeat of the Conservatives in the UK.
Looking to the back half of the year and beyond, lingering geopolitical uncertainty and an upcoming U.S. presidential election, coupled with the divergence in performance across assets, underscores the importance of diversification in a fundamentally uncertain world.
This paper discusses how corporate governance reforms in Asian markets can enhance earnings outlook, and the investment implications.
The “Magnificent 7” has massively outperformed the rest of the market, up roughly 30% since the start of the year compared to around 5% for the remaining companies, on AI-related headlines and strong earnings growth.
This paper addresses the concerns over market concentration in the S&P 500, and the investment implications.
Read our latest On the Minds of Investors article to understand what the outcome of the French National Assembly elections could mean for investors.
Markets have a tendency to over appreciate the near term and under appreciate the long term. We think AI will lead to all sorts of business transformation and productivity gains in the long term, but recent performance has been driven by significant upgrades in near-term AI demand projections.
This paper discusses trade tensions and the recent tariff impositions on China, and the investment implications.
The average homeowners’ insurance policy cost roughly $1,900 in 2023, up over 20% from the previous year and nearly 50% from before the pandemic.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, highlights the growing significance and potential risks of private credit markets in enhancing returns and diversification.
In the May CPI report, year-over-year headline inflation cooled to 3.3% from 3.4% - down one decimal, yet the median FOMC rate forecast for 2024 moved higher by half a percent.
MORENA party’s candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, won the Mexican presidential election with a historic margin, receiving 60% of votes. This victory was anticipated, but the scale of left-leaning MORENA's win in Congress was unexpected.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, highlights the divergence in central bank monetary policies and its investment implications.
For three years, stock and bond returns have been moving in the same direction. When times are good, this is not thought of as a problem; however, when stocks sell off and bonds are not there to catch them, then investors are faced with an important portfolio construction challenge to solve.
This paper discusses the election results in India, and the investment implications of short-term valuation challenges and long-term positive prospects.
We explore what the UK election means for the economy and markets.
The U.S. is the largest equity market in the world, but its weighting in the MSCI AC World Index exceeds its global equity market weighting and its projected contribution to global GDP in 2023.
This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, discusses why investors should take an active approach towards Asian equities in mitigating currency risks.
While we don’t expect home prices to decline materially from here given structural dynamics, Americans that have been sidelined from being able to purchase a home over the past couple of years are perhaps hoping and waiting for at least one area of reprieve: lower mortgage rates.
If 2023 was the year for AI excitement, this year may be the year for deployment. In first quarter earnings calls, approximately 45% of S&P 500 companies mentioned AI, marking a fresh high by our measures, and their collective investments continue to climb.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly and Jennifer Qiu, discusses investment implications of rising U.S. federal debt and widening deficits.
Japanese equities are in the spotlight, but investors should be mindful of the risks as well as the opportunities
Within that “super core” index, one small category (only 3% of the overall CPI basket) has been making outsized contributions: auto insurance.
2023 marked a third consecutive year of double-digit declines for Chinese equity markets. Investors are now reconsidering how to invest in that market and whether investing in Asia is about more than just China.
This paper discusses why U.S. 1Q24 earnings have been better than expected, and broadening profit growth should present opportunities outside of the Magnificent 7.
To understand these shifting dynamics and determine how to embrace this growing asset class, investors should consider: What’s driving the growth of private credit and the decline in high yield and, if private credit deserves a strategic allocation in a broader credit portfolio?
Following the pandemic, median home prices surged by double digits until peaking at the end of 2022. While prices are down roughly 12% since then, home affordability still sits at multi-decade lows.
This paper discusses the broader outlook for inflation and the labor market, following the April jobs report in the U.S.
During the first quarter, U.S. equities shrugged off ever-changing expectations for monetary policy with relative ease, climbing 10.6% despite a sharp hawkish repricing in policy expectations.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
At its May meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses the recent surges in gold and copper, and why commodity strategies can help protect portfolios when both stocks and bonds are correcting.
Investors should consider trimming decade-long international equity underweights – and Asia is the key place to look for opportunities.
Private equity has been surprisingly resilient throughout the Fed hiking cycle. In 2022, PE only declined by 2%, but is now 3.2% higher than the end of 2021, compared to U.S. small cap stocks, which were 7% lower.
This paper discusses the expected delay in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, and when the current wave of volatility could eventually subside.
It’s well understood that consumption is the largest contributor to economic growth in the United States accounting for just under 70% of GDP. Therefore, to a large extent, any outlook on the economy hinges on the health of the consumer.
We explore the potential economic and market scenarios stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East.
This paper addresses the latest Chinese economic data and the factors that may contribute to China markets trending higher.
Investors should recognize that while geopolitical headlines have the ability to capture market attention, the shocks to sentiment are often short-lived.
This paper discusses the relative valuation of European equities, and the factors that could suggest a more constructive outlook for the region's equity market.
Well-positioned investors could take advantage of the new era unfolding in healthcare transformation.
We expect yields to stabilize in the near term and for spreads to remain tight given still healthy credit fundamentals and strong economic activity.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, addresses the current performance and outlook of private equity market with subdued exit activity.
2023’s so-called “everything rally” was confusing to many market watchers, given the pessimistic macro outlook at the beginning of last year. Now, a quarter into 2024, the rally has clearly continued.
The S&P 500 notched 24 new all-time highs in Q1, up 10.6%, with 2.7%-points from earnings, 7.4% from multiple expansion, and 0.4% from dividends.
While we don’t expect a recession this year, whenever one occurs, the lack of private sector imbalances suggest that it is unlikely to be a severe one.
Investors should focus on EM regions and sectors that benefit from structural, as well cyclical, tailwinds.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses why policy easing amid a soft landing backdrop should be positive for both equities and fixed income.
Insights on the 2024 U.S. general election, potential election outcomes, policy agendas and investment implications to help investors navigate the election cycle in portfolios.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper addresses why strong and consistent earnings growth, structural reforms and the likelihood of political continuity further enhances India's appeal in spite of rich valuations.
As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50% at its March meeting.
Cryptocurrency investments should be made cautiously, and only as part of a much larger diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds. For investors with a long time horizon, traditional asset allocation remains an effective strategy.
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the key highlights of the Bank of Japan's March monetary policy meeting and what it means for the economy.
For investors looking to diversify concentration to U.S. tech names or to lean into underappreciated AI opportunities, Asian high-quality technology stocks could provide an attractive opportunity set.
Despite causing some short-term profit taking, gradual Yen strength can be digested by equities. Japan finally deserves to retake its place as a strategic allocation in global equity portfolios.
This paper discusses the macro factors in emerging markets that can drive a potential market rally once the Fed starts to cut and the U.S. dollar turns.
The financial future for women looks promising, but for individual investors, a strong financial plan will be key in seizing the opportunity.
This paper summarizes the key objectives set out in the government work report at China’s National People’s Congress, which were broadly in line with expectations.
After a significant pricing reset, private real estate could be on the verge of a rebound due to a few key drivers.
With monetary policy still at the forefront of the macro landscape in 2024, investors are left wondering how the election might influence Fed policymakers.
Continued demand for AI technologies from mega-cap companies should benefit Asian exporters that are involved in the regional tech supply chains.
Investors should recognize that the challenging backdrop presents an opportunity for alpha generation, both through traditional security selection and through active tax management
This paper, written by Tai Hui discusses why Japanese equities could remain strong despite the potential tightening in monetary policy.
For over a year, investors have been hyper-focused on the performance of just seven U.S. companies, nicknamed the “Magnificent 7”*, and rightfully so, given their outsized returns, earnings growth, and long-term tailwinds.
Over the last 30 years, cash has been unable to keep up with the creep of inflation. By contrast, other investments have been much better places to park capital.
This paper, written by Meera Pandit and Jennifer Qiu, discusses how quality balance sheets and margins continue to support U.S. large caps in spite of favorable small cap valuations.
Europe has made structural improvements and we think investors should sit up and take notice.
Presidential candidates will be campaigning on various policy proposals throughout the year, but one policy item that must be addressed during the next administration is whether to sunset or extend tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
The S&P 500 has reached a new milestone: crossing 5000. It is up 5.4% year-to-date, compared to the equal weight S&P 500, up just 0.7%.
While recession risks in the US have receded, geopolitical risk, election risk and restrictive monetary policy all threaten the current rally.
As the Year of the Dragon is about to begin in China, investors wonder: Are Chinese equity valuations cheap enough to bring good fortune ahead? What will turn investor sentiment around? Equity valuations already reflect a lot of uncertainty about the short-term and long-term path, suggesting a tactical rebound may be in the cards.
We look at why we think investors should look to diversify their exposure to the magnificent seven US stocks.
At the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year, the FOMC voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%.
Markets achieved a trifecta of good news in 2023: an economy that not only avoided recession but reaccelerated, meaningful progress on disinflation, and the Fed pivot markets had been trying to manifest for over a year.
This paper, written by Tilmann Galler and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the recent Chinese economic data releases and the investment implications.
Geopolitical uncertainty and an impending U.S. presidential election, coupled with the divergence in performance across assets in January, help to underline the importance of diversification in a fundamentally uncertain world.
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the history of monetary easing and our expectations of Fed policy in 2024. (6-minute read)
Much has been said about the “Magnificent 7” stocks that dominated market returns last year, ending 2023 up 107% and accounting for around two-thirds of the S&P 500’s performance.
After an impressive equity rally in 2023 and new all-time highs to start 2024, investors are evaluating their equity allocations, which includes where to position along the market cap spectrum.
This paper, written by Raisah Rasid, discusses the expected weakening of the U.S. dollar and the inflation deceleration in Asia, which presents an opportunity in Asia fixed income
International equities are likely to benefit this year from positive structural changes, a weaker dollar, and exciting governance changes.
Presidential elections always add an extra element of uncertainty to investing, and after a halcyon 2023 in equity markets, could come as a shock to investors. On top of assessing the path of the Federal Reserve, the stability of profits and the consumer, and navigating economic resilience vs. recession, investors will have to grapple with the barrage of headlines about the 2024 election.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the recent Chinese economic data releases and the investment implications.
A spike in oil prices could lead to higher prices at the pump, further disrupting the broad disinflationary trend.
The December CPI report showed an unexpected bounce in inflation with headline CPI rising 0.3% m/m (consensus 0.2%) and the year-over-year rate rising to 3.4% (consensus 3.2%).
Although investors may be tempted to invest based on who they think will win the election and how certain policies may be implemented, macro forces often dwarf policy agendas when it comes to sector performance.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for Asia high dividend equities in 2024.
For investors, should fundamentals remain solid we would expect the Fed to begin gradually reducing rates by the middle of this year and for long-term rates to stabilize at current levels, before grinding lower over the balance of the year.
Many investors wonder if they can tweak their existing exposures to be either more defensive against volatility or more opportunistic if certain sectors face future policy tailwinds.
We cannot predict what theme will dominate the markets in 2024, but we can control how we react to positive and negative surprises by having a measured approach to portfolios.
Understand the drivers of small cap valuations and find out why small cap stocks could still offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.
Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.
Green bonds are attractive instruments for working towards positive environmental benefits. Find out why demand for green bonds from investors is expected to continue to grow.
A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.
Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.
Fortunately, like the experience in the U.S., this second increase in cases is not being accompanied by the same rise in fatalities as the first.
