Week in review
- U.S. retail sales rose 4.0% y/y in March
- Japan inflation increased to 1.5% y/y in March
- Korea 1Q GDP expanded 1.7% q/q
Week ahead
- U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision
- European Central Bank interest rate decision
- Bank of Japan interest rate decision
Thought of the week
At last week's confirmation hearing, Kevin Warsh outlined numerous proposed changes to the Fed. These include scaling back on forward guidance and meeting frequency, anchoring policy to realized rather than forecast inflation, gradually reducing the $6.7 trillion balance sheet, and lowering its regulatory influence. Taken together, these shifts would mark a clear change from how the Fed currently operates. A worth-noting one is Warsh's emphasis to monitor inflation dynamics through the trimmed-mean and median inflation. Currently, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – the core PCE prices, which dynamically adjusts to consumer spending habits, sits a 3.0% y/y and a full percentage point above target. Replacing this with trimmed-mean PCE, as produced by the Dallas Fed, could push inflation back down to 2.3% y/y and much closer to the Fed’s target. While this switch may not move a single price, it does move the goalposts for the Fed, and this could matter for how markets price future rate decisions once Warsh succeeds as Fed chair.
Alternative measures of PCE inflation
Year-over-year change

Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data reflect most recently available as of 24/4/2026.
Market data

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All returns in local currency unless stated otherwise.
Currencies’ return are based on foreign currencies per U.S. dollar. An appreciation of the foreign currency against the U.S. dollar would be positive and a depreciation of the foreign currency against the U.S. dollar would be negative.