jpm_asset_mgmt
  • Investment Strategies

    Investment Options

    • Alternatives
    • Beta Strategies
    • Equities
    • Fixed Income
    • Global Liquidity
    • Multi-Asset Solutions

    Capabilities & Solutions

    • ETFs
    • Pension Strategy & Analytics
    • Global Insurance Solutions
    • Outsourced CIO
    • Sustainable Investing
  • Insights

    Market Insights

    • Market Insights Overview
    • Eye on the Market
    • Guide to the Markets
    • Guide to Alternatives
    • Market Updates

    Portfolio Insights

    • Portfolio Insights Overview
    • Alternatives
    • Asset Class Views
    • Currency
    • Equity
    • ETF Perspectives
    • Fixed Income
    • Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
    • Sustainable Investing

    Retirement Insights

    • Retirement Insights Overview
    • Essential Elements of a Sound Retirement System
    • Building Better Retirement Portfolios
  • Resources
    • Center for Investment Excellence Podcasts
    • Insights App
    • Library
    • Multimedia
  • About us
  • Contact Us
Skip to main content
  • English
  • Role
  • Country
  • Client Reporting
Search
Menu
CLOSE
Search
  1. Home
  2. Insights
  3. Market Insights
  4. Eye on the Market
  5. Listen when people tell you who they are

  • Share
  • LinkedIn Twitter Facebook
  • Email
  • Download
  • Print
  • Actions
  • LinkedIn Twitter Facebook
    Email Download Print

Listen when people tell you who they are

04/06/2019

Michael Cembalest

 

I had underestimated the chances of an escalating tariff war given the problems it creates for US businesses, for the stock market, for Republicans in the Senate who object to them, for some of Trump’s closest advisors and for the President’s 2020 political ambitions. Turns out the President is willing to risk all of that, at least for now. As far back as the 1980’s and again in 2011, Donald Trump was telling people that if he were President, he would take in “hundreds of billions in tariffs from countries that are screwing us”, and that he would start with a 25% tariff on China. Trump has been telling us who he is all along; I should have listened to him.

Perhaps some tariffs will be negotiated down after the June G20 meetings in Japan, or blocked by Congress; or perhaps the Fed will ease. If either occurs, equities should snap back a few percent after the recent decline. Even so, the US equity market does not deserve 17x or 18x P/E multiples any more, not with the President willing to go against market orthodoxies so readily. A 7%-9% return from today’s S&P 500 level by year-end is now our optimistic “trade war resolved”  outlook, with downside risk possible depending on what the President says/does as well as from the tech anti-trust issue.

Continue reading

Listen to the audio file or subscribe to the podcast to get the latest updates.

LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE TO MICHAEL CEMBALEST

In this podcast series, Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy offers timely commentary on the economy, marekts and investment portfolios
 

Listen on Apple Podcasts

Subscribe to RSS Feed

Read more by Michael Cembalest

0903c02a825f0750

China Market Trade war Eye on the Market
J.P. Morgan Asset Management

  • About us
  • Investment stewardship
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookie policy
  • Binding corporate rules
  • Sitemap
Opens LinkedIn site in new window
J.P. Morgan

  • J.P. Morgan
  • JPMorgan Chase
  • Chase

READ IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION. CLICK HERE >

The value of investments may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the full amount invested.

Copyright 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.