ASSET CLASS VIEWS FROM OUR SENIOR INVESTORS
Global Asset Allocation Views 1Q 2023
Expecting subtrend global growth and cooling inflation, we remain underweight equities and lean away from U.S. stocks In duration, we are neutral, with a preference for U.S. Treasuries. We upgrade credit to overweight, but specifically for investment grade.
Global Fixed Income Views 1Q 2023
Recession is our base case scenario, at 60%. We’re keeping Sub Trend Growth at 30% while reducing Above Trend Growth to 0% and Crisis to 10%. Our best idea: Use every backup in yields to add high quality duration, such as investment grade corporate bonds.
Factor Views 4Q 2022
The factors that we favor held up well in a challenging 3Q 2022 market environment: Equity momentum, merger arbitrage and macro carry were all positive, and losses across other factors were relatively limited. We maintain our positive outlook for equity factors, which appear cheap.