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          Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2026

          Enough fuel in the engine  

          Explore our Mid-Year Outlook to get our latest insights on the global economy and the prospects for global markets, including the main opportunities and risks for investors.
           

          Explore

           

          EXPLORE OUR FLAGSHIP INSIGHTS

          Liquidity Insights

          Discover our vast array of liquidity insights covering global investment news and trends.

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          Market Insights

          Simplify the complex with our thought-provoking insights written by our global team of strategists.

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          Eye on the Market

          Explore timely commentary on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios by Michael Cembalest.

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          Portfolio Insights

          Get perspectives and analysis from our investment teams to help guide portfolio decisions.

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          OUR EXPERTS CAN GUIDE YOU THROUGH PERIODS OF EXTREME TURBULENCE

          LIQUIDITY INSIGHTS EYE ON THE MARKET MARKET UPDATES
          LIQUIDITY INSIGHTS

          From guidance to guesswork: The Fed's new playbook

          A hawkish Fed shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, an oil shock, and AI capex are pushing inflation expectations higher, raising volatility, reviving rate hikes, and reshaping strategy for cash investors.

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          Tokenization: Transforming Money Market Funds for the Digital Era

          Get a concise overview of how tokenization is revolutionizing the financial industry by converting traditional assets into robust, efficient digital tokens. This article highlights the key impacts on money market funds, operational advantages, and the accelerating global adoption of blockchain technology.

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          Tokenizing Cash Management

          Tokenized money market funds: tokenization and digital assets for modern cash management. Unlock liquidity, move value faster and improve transparency.

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          Powering progress: Financing the infrastructure behind US data center growth

          AI investment is driving U.S. data center construction at a scale that demands new approaches to financing. J.P. Morgan's Investment Banking teams break down how corporate debt, project-level debt and multi-layered equity structures are being deployed — and what risks developers and investors need to manage.

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          Is Your Money Market Fund Built to Respond if Hikes Return?

          If the Federal Reserve does return to a hiking cycle, a key practical consideration is how quickly a money market fund can regain reinvestment flexibility and participate in higher front-end yields. For a corporate treasurer or money market fund investor, two of the first metrics to check are WAM and WAL.

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          ECB fuelled by uncertainty

          The ECB raised interest rates by 25bps in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, as inflation stayed stubborn and Middle East-driven energy risks kept uncertainty high. With no forward guidance, President Lagarde reinforced a strict meeting by meeting approach, leaving markets to track incoming data and volatile terminal rate pricing.

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          Resilient growth keeps MAS’s tightening stance alive

          The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) delivered a smaller tightening in July, but the direction hasn’t changed. Resilient growth and imported cost pressures leave inflation risks skewed higher and keeps the tightening stance alive. Learn about what this means for S$NEER and why SGD rates may stay volatile.

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          Higher-for-Longer creates opportunity

          As we move into mid-year, the macro environment remains defined by a mix of underlying resilience and emerging constraints. U.S. growth continues to hold up, supported by a strong labor market and solid business investment.

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          Municipal Short-Term Markets: VRDN Stability and Seasonal Supply Trends

          Short-term municipal rates remained broadly stable throughout June, supported by balanced supply-and-demand dynamics. The SIFMA Municipal Swap Index, which resets weekly, reflected these conditions and traded within a range of approximately 2.14% to 2.89% over the course of the month.

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          Global Liquidity Investment Outlook 2H26 - Asia Pacific: Balancing on pause

          Asia Pacific central banks are shifting into “wait and see” mode. Energy-driven inflation risks and uneven, AI-led resilience complicate the outlook. The easing cycle looks over; if inflation accelerates, the next move may be hikes.

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          Global Liquidity Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2026, EMEA: Cash at the crossroads

          Energy shocks and higher rates meet the AI boom, with implications for ECB policy, BoE policy and cash investors.

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          Liquidity Resilience in a Repricing World

          During the recent Global Liquidity Investment Forums held in Shanghai and Beijing, our portfolio managers Aidan Shevlin, Doris Grillo, and Molly Meng shared perspectives on money markets across the world, with a focus on volatility management, rate-path repricing, and policy signal interpretation.

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          ECB kicks off the fight against inflation

          The ECB raised interest rates by 25bps in June, its first hike since 2023, as inflation risks rose and growth outlooks softened. President Lagarde signalled this is unlikely to be a one-off move, with markets looking to September for the next decision.

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          Navigating the fog of war: Geopolitics is rewriting macro and monetary policy

          Geopolitics is reshaping macro and monetary policy after the Strait of Hormuz closure triggered an energy-led inflation shock, keeping central banks higher for longer and highlighting liquidity discipline and yield opportunities.

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          Global Central Banks: Caught in the Crossfire

          Central banks face a dilemma as the Middle East conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz drive oil prices higher and supply lower, fueling inflation and threatening growth.

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          RBA Revisits the Peaks

          The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered three consecutive rate hikes, reaffirming its commitment to price stability. Its hawkish stance is expected to persist.

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          Tokenization: The Future of Financial Markets

          As financial markets evolve, tokenization is emerging as a transformative force, promising greater efficiency, transparency, and flexibility.

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          Confirmation Watch: What a Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve Could Mean for Money Market Investors

          Even with a new Chair, policy is set by the FOMC, so any evolution in rates, communications, or the balance sheet would require consensus and likely be phased in over time.

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          Energy shocks drive MAS policy tightening

          The MAS pivoted to a more hawkish stance at its April policy meeting, increasing the S$NEER appreciation rate to counter rising imported inflation driven by energy shocks and global supply disruptions.

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          U.S. Money Markets: Embrace Flexibility. Unlock Opportunity.

          U.S. money market funds are poised for growth in 2026, with only modest Fed action expected and no drastic changes in policy or rates. Investors still have opportunities to add duration and seek enhance returns through careful credit selection.

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          Asia Pacific rates diverge as local dynamics lead

          APAC central banks entered 2026 split on the future direction of interest rates as disinflation fades and local growth remains robust. De-dollarization and regulatory convergence deepen local liquidity and anchor yields.

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          Asia credit shows healthy fundamental and tighter valuation

          Asia’s credit markets began 2026 on a positive note, supported by solid fundamentals and strong technical driven by investor demand and new issue supply, but the recent geopolitical risk may dampen the picture.

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          Unlocking Liquidity in the Digital Age

          Tokenized money market funds modernize corporate treasury by seeking to pair traditional MMF stability with blockchain enabled speed, transparency, and 24/7 access. Benefits include faster settlement, improved collateral efficiency, real-time visibility, and strategic optionality, with practical considerations around regulation, integration, skills, security, and market depth.

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          Fed holds rates steady, not settled

          Explore how the Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% for a second consecutive meeting, citing elevated uncertainty tied to Middle East developments.

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          RBA extends it hawkish pivot

          Greater capacity pressures, stronger private demand, a tight labour market and Middle East energy risks drove the RBA to hike. Despite a split vote and data dependence, the central bank’s commentary stayed hawkish.

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          Policy divergence reshapes the front end: Implications for Global Liquidity in 2026

          Explore how 2026 policy divergence, geopolitics, and de‑dollarisation are reshaping global liquidity. Discover risks, opportunities, and strategies, active duration, diversification, and cash segmentation, across the US, Europe, the UK, and APAC.

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          Persistent Inflation Drives RBA Pivot

          RBA’s decision to hike restores its credibility and reflects a shift towards a more hawkish stance, given mounting evidence that the economy is running hotter than anticipated.

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          Global Liquidity Investment Outlook 2026 - U.S.: Embracing flexibility unlocks opportunity

          Supportive monetary policy, ongoing fiscal initiatives, and the conclusion of quantitative tightening should foster favorable liquidity conditions and create opportunities for short-term investors.

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          Global Liquidity Investment Outlook 2026 - Asia Pacific: Finding a new balance

          Economic growth is expected to moderate. Fiscal support and lower interest rates provide some uplift, but fading external demand may offset it. Inflation is projected to bottom out, then rise slightly before stabilizing. Most APAC central banks are expected to pause or slow rate cuts, with short-term interest rates stabilizing at levels above previous cycles. China and Japan remain outliers; China may ease further while Japan may hike to address inflation.

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          GL Investment Outlook 2026 - EMEA: Grounds for optimism amid policy divergence

          Highlights include: ECB optimism, resilient euro area growth, and ongoing BoE rate cuts amid UK economic challenges. Learn how policy divergence, political risks, and market trends are shaping investment strategies for euro and sterling investors.

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          Bank of England: Spreading some festive cheer

          Explore the Bank of England’s recent rate cut, shifting inflation outlook, and evolving monetary policy. Learn how economic trends and policy decisions impact GBP cash investors, with insights on market expectations, fund strategies, and future rate movements.

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          Modernizing the Fed’s Operating Target: Why Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan Thinks the Time is Now

          Recently, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that the FOMC should modernize its target policy rate by selecting a new benchmark that more accurately reflects the marginal cost of funds for borrowers.

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          China PBoC – Navigating the Imbalances

          The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is likely to maintain an accommodative stance, although further rate cuts are unlikely as stability and liquidity take precedence.

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          ECB: Sitting in the right place (for now)

          Explore the European Central Bank's recent decision to cut key policy rates by 25 basis points and its implications for inflation forecasts, market reactions, and fund positioning. Understand the ECB's strategic outlook amid trade uncertainties and discover how euro cash investors can navigate the evolving monetary landscape.

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          Navigating uncertainty: The Bank of England remains cautious after a split MPC decision

          Explore the Bank of England's cautious approach following a split MPC decision to reduce the Bank Rate to 4.25%. Understand the implications for GBP cash investors amid economic uncertainty, disinflation progress, and revised growth and inflation forecasts.

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          EYE ON THE MARKET

          Libertarians at the Gate: the remarkable and disturbing last 72 hours in AI

          A brief note on the extraordinary events of the last 72 hours: Anthropic power agreements, OpenAI Millennium and ARC prizes on remarkable jumps in model capabilities, disclosures by OpenAI and Anthropic regarding sandbox jailbreaks and coordinated AI agent swarm attacks, and the relentless campaign by frontier labs to argue for regulatory moats to dampen competitive threats from US/Chinese open models.

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          Rear Window

          Over the last year, the Eye on the Market included views on sectors, rates and currencies. For this back-to-school piece, I prepared a rear window post-mortem on each.

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          The Year of the Trojan Fire Horse: China’s imbalanced economy and unrelenting mercantilism

          While there’s plenty of evidence to support Stephen Roach’s thesis of unsustainable imbalances in China’s economy, China is living up to anthropomorphic characteristics of this year’s zodiac, the Fire Horse, in at least one regard: bold moves, self-reliance, speed, action and innovation in the energy transition.

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          Patchmageddon

          The race to patch software vulnerabilities before zero-day cyber-exploitations proliferate

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          Semiquincententacles

          Behold the Aquilaceph, half-bald eagle and half-octopus. On the semiquincentennial 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence, this imaginary beast is a metaphor for the continued US grip on financial markets.

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          Home Alone: inflation and the new Fed chair; investing in China’s AI ecosystem; Prediction markets

          The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, like Kevin McCallister in Home Alone, faces a lonely vigil: survive until the adults get home again. The latest on inflation, rising Treasury yields, shrinking equity risk premia and pressure from the White House. Also: investing in China’s home-grown AI ecosystem, and the predation in prediction markets.

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          Abandon Ship!

          Despite improving US leading indicators and economic/stock market resilience, GOP House members are abandoning ship at a record pace.

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          Misanthropic

          Misanthropic: on Mythos, bad human behaviors and systems vulnerabilities. Anthropic describes Mythos as both its best aligned model to date while also conceding that Mythos likely poses the greatest alignment-related risk of any model they have created to date.

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          Salem’s Lot: Gulf War update; the Purge of senior US military officers; a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream

          Salem’s Lot: an update on the Gulf War. Topics include international commodity price pass-throughs to the US, the limits of energy independence, Gulf temperatures and their relevance to US military options, the proposed Iranian toll on the Strait of Hormuz, the cost per payload of asymmetric warfare and our commodity price tracker.

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          Pandora’s Bog: the global energy shock of 2026

          The last 48 hours have seen an escalation in attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.

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          Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026

          This year we tackle the fiercest energy debates— from data centers and power prices to the “primary energy” fallacy and more.

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          Supply and The Mam

          New York City now has one of the tightest housing markets since 1960.

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          12 insights about Venezuela and the "Donroe Doctrine"

          A few comments and exhibits on Venezuela, oil, geopolitics and drug trafficking

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          Eye on the Market Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights

          In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hyperscaler profits.

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          The Deep End: 2025 Alternative Investments Review

          On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago.

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          The winter of our discontent

          While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI.

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          Mad Libs: just fill in the blanks

          This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be.

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          The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack

          In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investments in Intel and MP Materials,...

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          Fair Shakes

          Fair Shakes: assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR

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          Eye on the Market Outlook 2025 : The Alchemists

          Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two China traps, Dr. Seuss goes to Europe, a crypto update and the 2025 Top Ten list.

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          Sick as a Dog

          For three decades until 2020, US healthcare stocks generated roughly the same returns as the tech sector, and with much less volatility.

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          Summer mailbag

          Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag.

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          "OK Boomer" on stablecoins, profits, tax cuts vs tariffs and Presidential break-ups

          Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsured deposits.

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          Chicken Hawks: a quick note on the US budget reconciliation bill

          A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn.

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          Back to our Regularly Scheduled Programming

          With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began.

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          Dogespierre Has Left the Building

          Like his predecessor Robespierre during the French Revolution, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine, focused this time around on government spending with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants.

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          Eye on the Market podcast

          Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.

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          Börsenstandpunktänderungspräsident: a revised tariff chart, critical minerals and note to Andreessen

          While the markets may have forced the President’s hand to change tack on tariffs, the revised announcement still entails the highest tariff rates in 100 years, subject to some necessary assumptions regarding what happens to $460 bn of US imports from China.

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          Redacted

          Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions.

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          Fifty Days of Grey

          Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded.

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          Heliocentrism: Objects may be further away than they appear

          Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%-0.6% per year. Our 15th annual energy paper covers the speed of the transition, electrification, the changing planet, the high cost of decarbonization in Europe, nuclear power, the Los Angeles fires, Trump 2.0 energy policies, renewable aviation fuels, superconductivity, methane tracking and the continually wilting prospects for the hydrogen economy.

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          From Here to Eternity

          From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones. Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. In this month’s note, we include a Trump policy impact tracker, and an assessment of the statutory and constitutional challenges that Trump policies face as the administration explores the outer limits of executive power.

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          DeepSeek and the sincerest form of flattery

          The sincerest form of flattery: on DeepSeek, NVIDIA, OpenAI and the futility of US chip bans. The DeepSeek episode can be two things at once: (i) a reflection of impressive Chinese AI innovation in the face of US chip bans and other restrictions, and (ii) the by-product of probable terms of service and copyright violations by DeepSeek against OpenAI. A Shakesperean irony: OpenAI may have had its terms of service violated after spending years training their own models on other people’s data. Warning: this piece is very geeky.

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          Inauguruption: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders

          Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin Coolidge, the unforgiving enemies lists of Richard Nixon, the deportation policies of Dwight Eisenhower, the manifest destiny of James Polk and the isolationism of 1914-era Woodrow Wilson. American First policies announced yesterday create risks for investors since its supply side benefits collide with its inflationary tendencies; there’s not a lot of room for error at a time of elevated US equity multiples.

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          The Year of Living Dangerously

          I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said.

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          "Kamilton": the 2024 election and who tells your story

          A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.

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          The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade

          For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run.

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          Mind the Gap: a historically polarized US election

          The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years.

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          A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market

          NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending.

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          There’s no place like home

          A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies could be as bad for recipients of Google’s shelf space payments as they are for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for owners of impaired office buildings. Most distressed sales now require discounts of 60%+ vs pre-COVID levels; the fundamentals of the office sector explain why.

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          The Lion in Winter

          From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapest levels in the 21st century with potential market and political catalysts in their favor. First, a few words on the CrowdStrike outage.

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          Implications of President Biden's Nominee Withdrawal Webcast Replay

          US small cap stocks were the lions of the 20th century, generating substantial returns over large cap stocks during six different extended periods of time. It has been 20 years since the last one due to a combination of poor small cap profit fundamentals, higher exposure to rising interest rates and the pricing power accruing to the largest stocks in a winner-take-all economy. Small cap has joined value stocks and non-US stocks in the trinity of severely underperforming asset allocation strategies. Relative to large cap, small cap stocks are now at their cheapest levels in the 21st century. While poor fundamentals argue against a seventh multi-year small cap outperformance regime, small cap is much closer to fair value for diversified portfolio investors.

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          The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State

          Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden’s LNG export moratorium.

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          Presidential candidate replacement procedures

          US Presidential elections: a brief primer on candidate replacement; Supreme Court decisions. As part of our ongoing coverage in the Eye on the Market of issues related to the US political process (third party candidates, the 11th and 12th amendments, the Electoral Count Reform Act, faithless electors, the No Labels movement, etc), I want to share a brief description of what we understand regarding candidate replacement procedures after the last Presidential primary and before the general election in November.

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          A Piece of the Action

          Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sports betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time.

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          Animal Farm

          With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide and water; and some satellite data on the immense agricultural damage occurring in Gaza and Israel. The Appendix addresses the avian flu’s impact on agriculture and the food supply.

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          Cicadian Rhythms

          Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model

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          The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

          The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: on tech valuations, AI, energy and US politics Last week I spoke to the firm’s tech CEO clients at a conference in Montana. This note is a partial summary of that presentation, entitled “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election”.

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          Eye on the Market 14th Annual energy paper

          Electravision. The predominant vision for the future involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. This vision primarily relies upon the greater efficiency of electric motors and heat pumps vs their fossil fuel counterparts. While the grid is getting greener, electrification is advancing at a much slower pace for reasons related to chemistry, physics, cost, politics and human behavior. Our 14th annual energy paper takes a closer look, and also includes sections on nuclear power, China, hydrogen, “net zero oil” and Gaza’s energy future.

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          Five Easy Pieces

          Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities.

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          Medical Complications

          This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.

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          Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk

          Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.

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          It's Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review

          A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit

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          Not That 70's Show

          Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets

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          New York, Just Like I Pictured It

          A comparison of NYC to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.

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          What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World

          I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. The bottom line: a large language model can process reams of text very efficiently, and that’s what it’s made for. But it cannot think or reason; it’s just something I paid for. Upfront, a few comments on oil prices.

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          The Rasputin Effect: Global resilience to higher rates

          Global Resilience to higher rates

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          Mr. Toad's Wild Ride: The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs

          The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs

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          Letters to the Editor

          Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.

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          Too Long at the Fair

          Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while

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          Oh, The Places We Could Go

          Oh, The Places We Could Go: on the US dollar, reserve currencies and the South China Morning Post

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          Frankenstein's Monster

          Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent convertible securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.

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          Eye on the Market 13th Annual Energy Paper

          Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.

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          Silicon Valley Bank failure

          One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.

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          Winter Heating

          US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot

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          American Gothic

          The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it.

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          The End of the Affair

          The End of the Affair. The affair with market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. A look at a world of higher inflation, more regionalized trade and investment and more capital scarcity.

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          Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck

          A discussion of the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX and three rules for investors: the Gensler Rule, the Sirens Rule and the Summers Rule. Our 2023 Outlook will be released as usual on January 1st.

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          Little Red Wagon

          A preliminary read on midterm election results given the context of prevailing market and economic conditions.

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          A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

          My list of things I am thankful for this year: CH4, HR4346 and mRNA-1273. Of course, your mileage may vary.

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          Reruns

          Three reruns for investors. First, in almost every post-war bear market, equity declines preceded the fall in earnings, growth and employment. As a result, we’re more focused on changes in manufacturing surveys than on the other victims of a recession as a sign of the bottom. Second, Graham Allison’s rising power conflict analysis and its historical precedents come back into focus with the latest US policies cutting off high performance semiconductor exports to China. Third, another press article on a small country as a prototype for a renewable future that does not address its irrelevance for larger developed or developing economies.

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          Arrested Development

          Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much greater probability of recession now, the credit markets are just getting started. One canary in the coal mine: the Citrix financing, which will be followed by a string of even weaker credits. On labor markets, the Fed is facing the tightest labor supply conditions in decades. Can second chance policies easing the path to employment for people with criminal arrest records help increase the labor supply, or will the Fed have to crush the economy to restore desired levels of wage and price inflation? Lastly, an update on bivalent vaccines and inhalable vaccines, as the latter offers the best chance of actually reducing infection and transmission.

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          On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

          Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.

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          Dude, Where’s My Stuff?

          The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. A close look at some very anomalous charts on shipping, semiconductors, inventories, labor shortages, foreclosures and mortality.

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          Your Fall 2021 syllabus

          Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology BI66 “The Origins of COVID” has been cancelled until further notice.

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          Red Med Redemption

          Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US economic recovery update, and big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth at a time of rising anti-trust enforcement. We conclude with a new “Investor Odds & Ends” section that covers NYC hotel/office markets and possible changes in personal, corporate and international tax rates.

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          Thy Brother’s Keeper

          COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).

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          Food Fight: 2021 private equity update

          Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.

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          Election 2020 - Praying for Time

          The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

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          MARKET UPDATES

          Hyperscaler debt issuance and the AI buildout: implications for IG credit

          Rising artificial intelligence (AI) investment is driving hyperscaler debt issuance. Explore how this shift in funding could reshape fixed income markets and offer investors a more defensive way to gain exposure to the AI theme.

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          How mega-cap tech IPOs could reshape S&P, Nasdaq and FTSE

          Mega-cap IPOs in 2026 show why private market access is crucial. Learn how companies like SpaceX and OpenAI impact market dynamics and your investment approach.

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          Navigating the impact of the Middle East conflict

          Assess the investment implications of the Iran conflict, and explore the potential economic and market impact under different scenarios, with the latest analysis from J.P. Morgan’s Market Insights team.

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          Understanding the shifting risks of passive investing

          Discover the risks of passive investing in today’s shifting economic and political tides, and how they influence portfolio returns.

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          Understanding gold and its role in portfolios

          Explore the drivers behind the recent rise in gold, the outlook for gold prices, and the role that gold can play in a diversified investment portfolio.

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          Investors seeking resilience should consider a quality bias

          Explore how investing in quality stocks can build resilient portfolios, offering stability and outperformance in uncertain market conditions.

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          A new path for the US dollar

          Uncover the factors influencing the future path of the US dollar and what they mean for investors.

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          Key questions shaping the outlook for AI megacaps

          Uncover how AI megacaps are tackling innovation, business shifts, and future chip demand in a changing landscape.

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          Sustainability and portfolio returns

          Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.

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          The European Central Bank aims to ‘thread the needle’

          The leader of the European Central Bank (ECB) has become very familiar with the challenge of ‘threading the needle’ in recent years and the test facing Christine Lagarde today was no different.

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