On the Minds of Investors

What is driving Japanese equities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, highlights the key drivers of Japanese equities and outlook of Japanese yen with investment implications. (3-minute read)

U.S. Tech: More room to run?

This paper, written by Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the recent U.S. equity rally and the outlook for U.S. technology stocks.

What are global central banks going to do in 2H 2023?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the expectations of global monetary policy in 2H23 and the investment implications.

1Q23 U.S. earnings: Better than expected

This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Nimish Vyas, discusses the 1Q23 U.S. corporate earnings and the investment implications.

Debt-Ceiling Cliff Dancing

This paper, written by David Kelly, discusses the U.S. debt-ceiling issue and the investment implications.

Don’t overlook the investment case for Asia fixed income

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses the outlook for Asia fixed income and the investment implications.

Will the U.S. dollar go “digital”?

This paper, written by Jack Manley, discusses the new payment service FedNow and its implications on the U.S. dollar

China’s road to recovery

This paper, written by Chaoping, discusses the latest Chinese economic data and the investment implications.

Playing devil’s advocate with our 2Q 2023 market view

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the challenges to our key asset allocation views.

Will the U.S. experience a credit crunch?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Marcella Chow, discusses the recent tightening of credit conditions, risk of a recession and the investment implications.

Could the recent banking sector stress persuade the Fed to go slow?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent bank failures and our expectations of the March FOMC meeting results.

Is 2% still the magic number for central banks?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the Fed's 2% inflation target and our expectations of the inflation trajectory.

A weaker U.S. dollar should support EM and Asian assets

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the outlook for U.S. dollar and the key factors driving its performance with investment implications.

The impact of higher interest rates on housing and consumers

Learn whether rising interest rates could cause a housing market crash and what it means for consumers.

China NPC preview

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides the preview of the National People's Congress annual session and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

The path ahead for Japan’s monetary policy

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, Shogo Maekawa, Jennifer Qiu and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for Japan's monetary policy and its investment implications.

Navigating rates and growth uncertainty within fixed income

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses our views on growth and rates, as well as the outlook for different fixed income assets. (3-minute read)

4Q22 U.S. Earnings: The calm before the storm?

This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Nimish Vyas, discusses the 4Q22 U.S. earnings results so far and the investment implications. (3-minute read)

Disagreement between the Fed and investors could bring more volatility

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses U.S. growth and inflation, as well as expectations of the Fed's upcoming rate decisions.

The spillover effects of China’s reopening

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the impact of China’s reopening on tourism, trade and inflation.

Marking the bottom of the Chinese economic cycle

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy with update on latest GDP number and situation of COVID-19. (3-minute read)

A policy party to end 2022

This paper, written by Tai Hui, Chaoping Zhu, Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, discusses continued hawkishness among DM central banks and China's Central Economic Work Conference.

China market: buoyant market sentiment along a bumpy road to recovery

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy and CNY in light of the recent easing of COVID restrictions and upcoming policy conferences.

All eyes on U.S. consumers this holiday season

This paper, written by Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the mixed outlook for U.S. consumer spending given lower savings rate, real wage growth and consumer sentiments.

Just how bad (or good) is economic growth?

The prevailing economic resiliency coincides with softening inflation, which gives the Federal Reserve an opportune window of slowing inflation but solid growth to tighten monetary policy to an appropriately restrictive stance and maintain that level for a period of time before growth starts to bite.

Gridlock means greater focus on inflation and the Fed

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for markets after the mid-term U.S. elections.

What is the outlook for long-term returns?

This paper, written by Tai Hui and David Lebovitz, discusses the outlook for the macroeconomic environment and asset class returns based on the 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions.

A glimpse of hope for U.S. and China equities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook for U.S. and China equities after recent economic and policy news. (3-minute read)

Key events to watch out for to gauge China’s policy pivot

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook for China’s policy pivot and the investment implications.

Opportunities within fixed income: A trick or a treat?

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for fixed income and the investment implications.

The advantage of high dividend stocks in a stagflationary environment

Explore how dividend paying stocks can help build portfolio resilience against the prospects of high inflation and recession.

Politics and policy: The U.S. midterm elections

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Meera Pandit, discusses the policy and market outlook with regards to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. (3-minute read)

What should investors expect for 3Q22 earnings?

The third quarter earnings season is set to kick-off with the large U.S. banks releasing results. Our current estimate for 3Q22 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $53.82, representing year-over-year (y/y) growth of 3.5% and quarter-over-quarter (q/q) growth of 14.8%.

Are European assets cheap enough?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Vincent Juvyns, Marcella Chow and Hugh Gimber, discusses the outlook of European equities and fixed income. (3-minute read)

After robust job gains, is the labor market coming into balance?

The September Jobs report showed the economy continues to make progress in easing labor market tightness. The recent pace of job growth remains solid but has moderated, and wage growth continues to run at a more modest pace of 0.3% month-over-month.

Why cash is not king

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses why investors should stay invested through an income approach. (3-minute read)

The challenge facing UK policymakers to stabilize sterling markets

This paper discusses the current uncertainties surrounding the UK government and economy, as well as market movements and outlook. (3-minute read)

A strong U.S. dollar and impact on Asian currencies

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses our outlook for the U.S. dollar and its investment implications on Asian assets and currencies. (3-minute read)

Catalysts for growth style outperformance

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the current outlook of growth stocks and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

The pros and cons of U.S. high yield corporate bonds

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook of the U.S. high yield corporate bonds and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

Is it a bad idea to invest in EM equities during a Fed rate hike cycle?

This paper, written by Gabriela Santos and Anjali Balani, discusses the current outlook for EM equities and its investment implications.

Fed policy outlook after Jackson Hole

This paper, written by Tai Hui, summarizes the key takeaways from the Jackson Hole meeting and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

How will the Inflation Reduction Act impact the economy?

This week, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a legislative package that includes climate spending, prescription drug pricing reform, and tax reform, was signed into law. The IRA represents a meaningful commitment to climate goals and should reduce the deficit over the next decade but is unlikely to reduce inflation and will weigh on 2023 profits.

U.S. 2Q22 earnings update: Where have all the earnings gone?

This paper, written by David Lebovitz, Ian Hui and Nimish Vyaz, summarizes the 2Q22 U.S. earnings result and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

Will global central banks’ fight against inflation lead to a global recession?

The broad takeaway is that economic conditions are softening globally, and aggressive central bank tightening is contributing to it. The global economy could avoid a recession if a stronger recovery emanates from China in the second half of 2022, and a soft landing is achieved in regions like the U.S. and Europe, however, that outcome looks increasingly challenging.

The outlook for Asian electronics and internet platforms

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the current situation and development of Asian technology sector with investment implications. (4-minute read)

The 60/40 Reloaded

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views on enhancing the 60/40 portfolio in today's market environment with investment implications. (4-minute read)

Is an earnings recession in the U.S. imminent?

This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views regarding the earnings recession in the U.S. and path of inflation with investment implications. (4-minute read)

China’s economy: a gradual recovery in 2H 2022

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the prospects and views regarding the gradual recovery of China's economy and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

Is there a role for private real estate in my portfolio?

What has not come into question is whether investors will need alternative sources of income and diversification. As such, it seems increasingly likely that private real estate will be part of the broader investment conversation in the years to come.

Investors should not lose sight on sustainability as a long-term investment theme

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the sustainability as a long-term investment theme and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

A few thoughts on fixed income

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the fixed income as a portfolio component to prepare for slower growth and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

How are higher rates impacting private markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, describes the situation of private markets under the prospect of higher rates, higher inflation and a slower growth outlook with investment implications. (4-minute read)

Gauging U.S. economic recession risk

While investors will inevitably be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy this week, one question on the back of everyone’s mind would be the risk of a recession in the U.S. (4-minute read)

What should I know about quantitative tightening?

Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.

Rising inflation in Asia and central banks’ response

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses inflation and central bank policy in Asia, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

Are we in or headed towards a recession?

The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.

Protecting against inflation: Part 3 – Protecting your capital

Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.

Protecting against inflation: Part 2 – The labour market is key

Today, there are more job openings than there are unemployed workers. Explore what impact a tight labour market could have on inflation in 2022.

What are President Biden’s policy priorities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.

Can China sustain its strong economic momentum?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.

Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.

What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?

This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell’s decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.

Does re-opening mean re-orienting equities?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the improving market sentiment and the outlook on equities.

Will the Fed cause inflation?

The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.

Income hunting: If life was tough before, it’s even tougher now

While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.

What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.

What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.

COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever

The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.

Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?

Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control.

The Great Glut: A historic supply and demand shock in the oil market

Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.

How vulnerable are emerging markets?

Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.

Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?

Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia

China set to advance stimulus efforts

As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.

A COVID-driven spike in claims

Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.

The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.

What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.

The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability

In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.

Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?

Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.

Equity markets fall into correction

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.

Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?

The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.

What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020

Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks?

The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.

What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?

China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.

Is the U.S.-China trade war over?

Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.

Should investors still worry about US-China trade?

The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.

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