How should investors view the recent Chinese equity sell-off?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the Chinese new reforms and the subsequent selling pressure in Chinese equities, and what this means for investors.

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What are the latest inflation data telling us?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses what investors should make of the strong recent inflation data, and what it means for their investments.

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What is the inflation risk?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the inflation outlook in the U.S. and around the world in the coming months and years, and what this means for investors.

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Can international stocks provide a hedge against rising inflation?

Inflation has been a hot topic amongst investors. Globally, inflation is expected to rise this year from 2020’s low levels. This reflation, a sign that the economy is operating above potential, should lead to strong earnings growth as well

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How will the Fed’s decision on the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) impact markets?

For better or for worse, banks are required to meet various liquidity and leverage requirements. One ratio that measures a bank’s ability to absorb losses is the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). The SLR formula measures tier 1 capital, which consists mostly of common and preferred stock, as a percent of total leverage exposure.

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U.S. 4Q20 earnings season

This paper, written by David M. Lebovitz and Ian Hui, discusses our views on the U.S. 4Q20 earnings season so far and its investment implications.

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How should Asian investors handle the current bout of market volatility?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the latest market volatility and its investment implications.

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What are President Biden’s policy priorities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.

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Can China sustain its strong economic momentum?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.

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What are the implications of the Brexit deal for the economy and markets?

It is hard to remember a time when Brexit was not dominating British headlines, but at the midnight hour, UK and EU negotiators finally reached agreement on a new trade deal. This piece addresses the key questions surrounding the deal: what is covered, how does it impact the outlook for the UK economy, and what are the market implications?

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Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.

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US election: Democrats take control of the Senate

Several major news outlets are now projecting that the Democrats will win the two remaining Senate races following Tuesday's run-offs in Georgia.

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What could upset a happy New Year?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the key market risks heading into 2021.

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Northeast and Southeast Asia paving the way to prosperity

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the recovery of various Asian economies from the COVID-19 pandemic and discusses the near-term and longer-term regional outlook.

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Should investors worry about inflation?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on central bank policies to address inflation concerns heading into 2021.

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The Year Ahead 2021

2020 has been an exceptional year, largely due to the onset of COVID-19 and the global economic fallout from the pandemic. This paper addresses nine questions that are most concerned by our clients regarding 2021 outlook for such an unusual economic and policy environment.

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What are the implications of rising corporate bond defaults in China?

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on capital markets following a rise in Chinese bond defaults.

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What does the end of the Fed’s credit facilities mean?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the ending of various Federal Reserve credit facilities in a time of lower fiscal support and weaker economic activity.

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Was the 3Q earnings season really that great?

Thsi paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the 3Q 2020 U.S. earnings results and the outlook for the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Where still offers value and could continue to benefit if a vaccine is approved?

A Covid-19 vaccine could be a game changer for the global economy and markets. Global Market Strategist, Mike Bell highlights three areas that could continue to benefit should a vaccine be approved.

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How should investors consider the impact of climate change on their portfolios?

This paper, written by Vincent Juvyns, looks at how investors can manage climate-related risks in their portfolios, while also driving real change.

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What should investors do, given the latest surge in COVID-19 in Europe and the U.S.?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent rebound in COVID-19 cases and their implications on global markets.

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Monitoring the global impact of COVID-19

The spread of the coronavirus and its impact on global economic activity has materially changed the investment outlook for 2020. In this piece we provide a framework for tracking infection rates globally and monitoring the impact on economic activity.

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China’s recovery on track

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the latest Chinese GDP data and recovering economy with its investment implications.

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The Fed’s Timetable

Turbulence defines today’s investment environment, with great waves of uncertainty surging from the pandemic, the election, fiscal policy and a slowdown in what had been, to this point, a sharp recovery from a very deep recession. The waves of uncertainty should fade in 2021 and, as they do so, the primary role of interest rates in determining asset class returns should reassert itself.

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Are Chinese authorities worried about the Chinese yuan's strength?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese yuan following its recent strong performance.

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What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?

This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell’s decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.

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Rebalancing for high-quality growth: What to expect from China’s new five-year plan

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, gives our prospects about China’s upcoming 14th five-year plan. To be approved in October and implemented during 2021 to 2025, this plan will have profound impacts to Chinese economy and financial market.

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What is the latest progress of China's economic recovery?

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following recent economic data releases.

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Why should I invest in equities when they are already so expensive?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the positive outlook on global equities despite high valuations.

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Enhance yields with Chinese bonds in the zero interest rate era

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Chaoping Zhu, looks at the attractiveness of the Chinese bond market in the current global environment.

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China’s 2Q GDP and June economic data improve on post-COVID rebound

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the rebound in Chinese economic activity and its implications for investors.

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ECB: Talking the talk but not walking the walk

The lack of policy action from the ECB is much more to do with the reduced effectiveness of the remaining options at its disposal rather than the ECB being comfortable with the current state of the economy.

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Can the market bounce back?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the longer-term outlook for equities following the recent sell-off of tech and growth stocks.

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US presidential election 2020

All the analysis investors need as America selects its next president

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What does the Fed’s latest change in monetary policy framework mean for Asian investors?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent statement by the Federal Reserve and its implications on global markets.

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What are the implications from the latest review of the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the recent discussion between the U.S. and China regarding the Phase One trade agreement.

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Loss aversion: How does this impact investors now?

Loss aversion refers is the preference to avoid losing compared to gaining an equivalent amount.

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Asia Insights

Top questions on Asian economic and financial market developments

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Where do we stand in the economic recovery?

Last week, we learned that the unemployment rate fell to 10.2% in July.

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Should I be positioned for higher yields?

Last week, we learned that the unemployment rate fell to 10.2% in July.

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Will tensions between the U.S. and China keep rising?

This paper, written by Gabriela Santos, discusses the outlook for U.S.-China tensions amidst COVID-19 and the upcoming election season.

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The Investment Implications of the Coronavirus Debt Surge

Notes on the week ahead from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist

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Introducing our Asia COVID-19 tracker

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Yeo, provides a framework for comparing the policy responses and risks faced by Asian economies from the pandemic.

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What are earnings forecasts telling us about the recovery?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.

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How should current conditions be reflected in asset allocation?

We revisit asset allocation views as the global economy appears to be in the early innings of recovery, but stares down the limitations to growth in a pre-vaccine world.

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Is the U.S. dollar weakness here to stay? What should investors do?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.

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Does re-opening mean re-orienting equities?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the improving market sentiment and the outlook on equities.

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Will the Fed cause inflation?

The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.

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How will COVID-19 affect Sustainable Bonds?

Global governments have been swift and bold in supporting their economies, building a bridge to get consumers, small businesses and corporates over the present abyss to the other side. Given the unknown breadth and depth of the abyss, more stimulus may be required.

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Income hunting: If life was tough before, it’s even tougher now

While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.

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What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.

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What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.

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COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever

The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.

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Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?

Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control. 

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The Great Glut: A historic supply and demand shock in the oil market

Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.

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Chinese GDP in Recession amid Virus Outbreak

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discussed the performance and outlook of Chinese economy, policies amid the global pandemic and implication for investors.

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How vulnerable are emerging markets?

Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.

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Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?

Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia

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China set to advance stimulus efforts

As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.

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A COVID-driven spike in claims

Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.

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The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.

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What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.

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The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability

In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.

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Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

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What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

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How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?

Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.

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Equity markets fall into correction

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.

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Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?

The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.

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What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020

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Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks? 

The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.

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What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?

China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.

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Is the U.S.-China trade war over?

Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.

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Should investors still worry about US-China trade?

The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.

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