The Year Ahead 2022

In the spirit of the 2022 World Cup football tournament in Qatar, we field our starting lineup, or “starting 11” on investing in 2022 and address them using charts from our Market Insights program and Guide to the Markets - Asia.

Read more

How should Asian investors react to the Omicron variant?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential impact of the Omicron variant and the investment implications for investors.

Read more

Will the COVID-19 resurgence derail global recovery?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Kerry Craig, discusses the impact of the recent COVID-19 resurgence in China and other regions, and what it means for investors.

Read more

COP26: Not a failure, not a success

COP26 saw significant announcements in areas such as coal, methane and deforestation, yet progress fell short of the scale required to give us confidence that disruptive climate outcomes can be avoided. Physical climate risks warrant careful consideration for long-term investors.

Read more

October CPI Report: Inflation still surging

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, discusses the October CPI report and what it means for investors.

Read more

Where do we stand on infrastructure spending?

From our vantage point, it seems like a given that the President will sign the bipartisan bill into law. Looking at the budget reconciliation package, a deal will get done but it may come down to the wire.

Read more

U.S. 3Q21 earnings: Supply pains

Despite a slowdown in 3Q21 economic growth, corporate profits have been better than expected. Investors should use profits as a guide, as rising interest rates could pressure multiples and leave earnings as the main driver of returns.

Read more

October Jobs Report: Labor market recovery gets back on track

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, discusses the October jobs report and what it means for investors.

Read more

Are all global central banks on the move?

Investors should not paint all central banks with the same brush stroke as normalization will come in different shades: some central banks are already or close to being on the move, others will remain somewhat patient until next year, while others will remain firmly on hold.

Read more

Focus on taper, not rates for now

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, addresses the FOMC's November meeting and their tapering plans.

Read more

What is the likelihood of a central bank policy mistake?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Ian Hui and Gareth Lam, discusses whether or not the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are hiking rates too slow or too fast, and what it means for investors.

Read more

Alternative Asset Management Outlook

Given the uncertain near-term outlook, we believe it is prudent to focus on strategies that do well in volatility and are ready to take advantage of market dislocations.

Read more

Could the Fed turn more hawkish on monetary policy?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential path of Fed monetary policy and the investment implications for investors.

Read more

What are the implications from China’s 3Q 2021 GDP data?

Tai Hui, Chief Market Strategist Asia Pacific, and Zhu Chaoping, Global Market Strategist, discuss the potential investment implications of the newly released 3Q21 GDP data of China.

Read more

Are we entering a period of stagflation?

Stagflation has become a hotly debated topic among investors as inflation expectations rise and growth expectations fall. This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses our views on the topic and what it means to investors.

Read more

Getting ahead of COP26 and what it means for investors

Discover why COP26 is important for investors. Explore the potential investment implications that could come with new climate objectives and commitments.

Read more

What is the market impact from elections in Germany and Japan?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the market impact of the elections in the third and fourth largest economy in the world, and what this means for investors.

Read more

Powell tees up tapering

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, addresses the FOMC's September meeting announcement.

Read more

How to navigate the three challenges in China?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the major challenges faced by China equity and fixed income market, and their investment implications.

Read more

The implications for investors of the German election

Germans head to the polls later this month to elect a new government. With the race to replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor still uncertain, Global Market Strategist Tilmann Galler sets out the policy agenda of the main parties, considers the most likely coalition scenarios, and looks at how the election may impact the outlook for the German economy and markets.

Read more

What could trigger a market correction?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the possible triggers for a U.S. market correction, and what this means for investors.

Read more

Will disappointing payrolls derail the taper?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the recently released U.S. payroll statistics and potential impact on the possibility and path of the U.S. QE tapering policy rollout.

Read more

Are Asian central banks turning hawkish?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the near-term possibility that Asian central banks could look to normalize their monetary policy, and what this means for investors.

Read more

Watching for the rise in bond yields

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, looks into the key factors that we see leading to a sustainable move higher in government bond yields, and what this means for investors.

Read more

How would QE tapering impact on investment?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, compares the 2014 tapering with what is happening with U.S. monetary policy now, and what this means for investors.

Read more

U.S. 2Q21 earnings

While it may be tempting to chase recent performance, we continue to anticipate that the second half will see interest rates move higher, repricing more in-line with the above-trend pace of economic activity that currently characterizes our forecasts. This should be supportive of cyclical assets broadly, and allow value to outperform growth.

Read more

Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world

Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.

Read more

Not growth, not value, but income

This paper, written by Ian Hui, discusses the importance of income generation in the face of uncertainty and volatility.

Read more

What now for Chinese equities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the economic policy insights provided by the recent Politburo meeting, and what this means for investors.

Read more

How should investors view the recent Chinese equity sell-off?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the Chinese new reforms and the subsequent selling pressure in Chinese equities, and what this means for investors.

Read more

What are the latest inflation data telling us?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses what investors should make of the strong recent inflation data, and what it means for their investments.

Read more

What is the inflation risk?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the inflation outlook in the U.S. and around the world in the coming months and years, and what this means for investors.

Read more

Can international stocks provide a hedge against rising inflation?

Inflation has been a hot topic amongst investors. Globally, inflation is expected to rise this year from 2020’s low levels. This reflation, a sign that the economy is operating above potential, should lead to strong earnings growth as well

Read more

How will the Fed’s decision on the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) impact markets?

For better or for worse, banks are required to meet various liquidity and leverage requirements. One ratio that measures a bank’s ability to absorb losses is the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). The SLR formula measures tier 1 capital, which consists mostly of common and preferred stock, as a percent of total leverage exposure.

Read more

U.S. 4Q20 earnings season

This paper, written by David M. Lebovitz and Ian Hui, discusses our views on the U.S. 4Q20 earnings season so far and its investment implications.

Read more

How should Asian investors handle the current bout of market volatility?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the latest market volatility and its investment implications.

Read more

What are President Biden’s policy priorities?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.

Read more

Can China sustain its strong economic momentum?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.

Read more

What are the implications of the Brexit deal for the economy and markets?

It is hard to remember a time when Brexit was not dominating British headlines, but at the midnight hour, UK and EU negotiators finally reached agreement on a new trade deal. This piece addresses the key questions surrounding the deal: what is covered, how does it impact the outlook for the UK economy, and what are the market implications?

Read more

Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.

Read more

US election: Democrats take control of the Senate

Several major news outlets are now projecting that the Democrats will win the two remaining Senate races following Tuesday's run-offs in Georgia.

Read more

What could upset a happy New Year?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the key market risks heading into 2021.

Read more

Northeast and Southeast Asia paving the way to prosperity

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the recovery of various Asian economies from the COVID-19 pandemic and discusses the near-term and longer-term regional outlook.

Read more

Should investors worry about inflation?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on central bank policies to address inflation concerns heading into 2021.

Read more

Monitoring the global impact of COVID-19

The spread of the coronavirus and its impact on global economic activity has materially changed the investment outlook for 2020. In this piece we provide a framework for tracking infection rates globally and monitoring the impact on economic activity.

Read more

What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?

This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell’s decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.

Read more

Enhance yields with Chinese bonds in the zero interest rate era

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Chaoping Zhu, looks at the attractiveness of the Chinese bond market in the current global environment.

Read more

China’s 2Q GDP and June economic data improve on post-COVID rebound

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the rebound in Chinese economic activity and its implications for investors.

Read more

Asia Insights

Top questions on Asian economic and financial market developments

Read more

Does re-opening mean re-orienting equities?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the improving market sentiment and the outlook on equities.

Read more

Will the Fed cause inflation?

The balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased by 2.9 trillion USD since the start of March, meaning that in just over eleven weeks it has grown more than it did in the five years following the Financial Crisis.

Read more

How will COVID-19 affect Sustainable Bonds?

Global governments have been swift and bold in supporting their economies, building a bridge to get consumers, small businesses and corporates over the present abyss to the other side. Given the unknown breadth and depth of the abyss, more stimulus may be required.

Read more

Income hunting: If life was tough before, it’s even tougher now

While dividends in some regions are likely to face pressure in the coming months, now is not the time to give up on equities as a key source of income for multi-asset portfolios.

Read more

What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.

Read more

What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.

Read more

COVID-19 shows ESG matters more than ever

The COVID-19 crisis is causing short-term ESG repercussion and longer-term shifts. Find out why sustainability has never been more important for investors.

Read more

Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?

Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control. 

Read more

The Great Glut: A historic supply and demand shock in the oil market

Rising production and collapsing demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an unprecedented glut in the oil market. As a result, we are currently witnessing a pronounced supply and demand shock that has sent oil prices to a multi-year low.

Read more

Chinese GDP in Recession amid Virus Outbreak

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discussed the performance and outlook of Chinese economy, policies amid the global pandemic and implication for investors.

Read more

How vulnerable are emerging markets?

Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.

Read more

Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?

Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia

Read more

China set to advance stimulus efforts

As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.

Read more

A COVID-driven spike in claims

Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.

Read more

The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.

Read more

What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.

Read more

The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability

In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.

Read more

Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Read more

What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

Read more

How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?

Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.

Read more

Equity markets fall into correction

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.

Read more

Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?

The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.

Read more

What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020

Read more

Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks? 

The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.

Read more

What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?

China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.

Read more

Is the U.S.-China trade war over?

Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.

Read more

Should investors still worry about US-China trade?

The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.

Read more