Eye on the Market

Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence

Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.

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LATEST COMMENTARY

Not That 70's Show

Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets

New York, Just Like I Pictured It

A comparison of NYC to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.

What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World

I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. The bottom line: a large language model can process reams of text very efficiently, and that’s what it’s made for. But it cannot think or reason; it’s just something I paid for. Upfront, a few comments on oil prices.

The Rasputin Effect: Global resilience to higher rates

Global Resilience to higher rates

Mr. Toad's Wild Ride: The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs

The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs

Letters to the Editor

Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.

Too Long at the Fair

Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while

Oh, The Places We Could Go

Oh, The Places We Could Go: on the US dollar, reserve currencies and the South China Morning Post

Frankenstein's Monster

Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent convertible securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.

Eye on the Market 13th Annual Energy Paper

Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.

Silicon Valley Bank failure

One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.

Winter Heating

US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot

American Gothic

The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it.

The End of the Affair

The End of the Affair. The affair with market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. A look at a world of higher inflation, more regionalized trade and investment and more capital scarcity.

Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck

A discussion of the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX and three rules for investors: the Gensler Rule, the Sirens Rule and the Summers Rule. Our 2023 Outlook will be released as usual on January 1st.

Little Red Wagon

A preliminary read on midterm election results given the context of prevailing market and economic conditions.

A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

My list of things I am thankful for this year: CH4, HR4346 and mRNA-1273. Of course, your mileage may vary.

Reruns

Three reruns for investors. First, in almost every post-war bear market, equity declines preceded the fall in earnings, growth and employment. As a result, we’re more focused on changes in manufacturing surveys than on the other victims of a recession as a sign of the bottom. Second, Graham Allison’s rising power conflict analysis and its historical precedents come back into focus with the latest US policies cutting off high performance semiconductor exports to China. Third, another press article on a small country as a prototype for a renewable future that does not address its irrelevance for larger developed or developing economies.

Arrested Development

Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much greater probability of recession now, the credit markets are just getting started. One canary in the coal mine: the Citrix financing, which will be followed by a string of even weaker credits. On labor markets, the Fed is facing the tightest labor supply conditions in decades. Can second chance policies easing the path to employment for people with criminal arrest records help increase the labor supply, or will the Fed have to crush the economy to restore desired levels of wage and price inflation? Lastly, an update on bivalent vaccines and inhalable vaccines, as the latter offers the best chance of actually reducing infection and transmission.

On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.

Dude, Where’s My Stuff?

The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. A close look at some very anomalous charts on shipping, semiconductors, inventories, labor shortages, foreclosures and mortality.

Your Fall 2021 syllabus

Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology BI66 “The Origins of COVID” has been cancelled until further notice.

The Needle and the Damage Done

The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General

The Day After

Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer with real time data as a function of infection levels and state policy. Additional topics: no evidence yet of material second waves of COVID infection, and a round-up of the latest news on vaccine trials (Moderna, Oxford, Sinovac) and anticoagulants.

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.

The Bounce

The US recovery; The flood of money and market returns; Globalization lives; Reducing COVID mortality through vascular treatments; Realistic timetables for never-been-done before vaccines; Sweden’s COVID experiment is not what you think

Zoom Room

In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.

State's Rights

In this week’s note, we discuss the latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.

Are we there yet?

Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet?

COVID and culture

In this week's note, we take a close look at country and regional virus data, and examine the pitfalls of over-extrapolating trends that often reverse.

The equity rally and herd immunity

After the equity rally, P/E multiples are back at around 16x 2021 consensus earnings.

Man vs Nature Part II

Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.

Man vs Nature: what the government can and cannot fix

There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can't.

John Stuart Mill and the road from ruin to recovery

There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.

The pandemic gap

A lot of data is being made available on the coronavirus, but most of it requires careful analysis before drawing conclusions.

Berning Man

Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago?

COVID-19 update

A Coronavirus update: severity, consequences and implications for investors.

Millions and Trillions

Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.

Rotten Tomatoes

Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point. A brief note on what happened, and the alternatives.

Ghosts of Christmas Past

After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.

War of the Worlds

How a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.

The Armageddonists

While recessions and bear markets are a fact of life, something peculiar happened after the Global Financial Crisis: the rise of the Armageddonists.

Warren Peace

A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.

Active Management and QE-distorted markets

Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers and discusses the challenges they face.

Cold Turkey

A brief comment on a proposal from leading Presidential candidates to ban hydraulic fracturing everywhere, immediately.

So long Yellow Brick Road

It was a long, hot summer at the Heritage Foundation. An update from the front lines of the Trade War.

Lost in Space: The Search for Democratic Socialism in the Real World

Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.

Listen when people tell you who they are

Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.

Smoot Hardly

The US-China trade war, prescription drug price legislation and the 2020 election.

Energy Outlook 2019: Mountains and Molehills

Topics: unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal; overview of the world’s decarbonization challenges; Germany’s energy transition; Trump’s War on Science.

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Market Outlook 2023: The End of the Affair

Outlook 2022 - Reflation: Endgame

A look at the consequences of reflation for equity markets that are already pricing in plenty of good news.

Outlook 2021: The Hazmat Recovery

In response to the worst pandemic in 50 years and a country at war with itself over lockdowns, individual freedoms and election results, the Fed and Congress airdropped an unprecedented amount of stimulus with vaccine airdrops to follow.

Market Outlook 2020: Ghosts of Christmas Past

After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.

Energy Outlooks

Growing Pains: Renewable Transition in Adolescence

2022 Annual Energy Paper

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2021 Annual Energy Paper

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Tenth Annual Energy Paper

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Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence

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