As headlines focus on the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence (AI) and the evolving risk landscape, we examine the underlying drivers, market reactions, and what investors should watch as we move through 2026.
Market Backdrop: Volatility and Spread Dispersion
The start of 2026 has seen pronounced equity and credit spread volatility across tech and Business Development Companies (BDCs), with software names at the epicenter. Three consecutive sessions of equity weakness have amplified anxieties, particularly around BDCs and their exposure to long-duration software debt. While the market has not yet observed widespread credit deterioration, the debate around AI’s disruptive potential has intensified, leading to significant spread dispersion within the IG software and BDC universe. Trading desk color highlights initial spread moves of +10 to +35bps in a single day, and +20 to +50bps week-to-date, reflecting both fundamental uncertainty and technical pressures.
AI: Threat or Opportunity?
AI’s rapid evolution is reshaping the narrative for software and adjacent sectors. Recent product launches, such as advanced AI coding assistants and agentic tools capable of automating complex workflows, have fueled concerns about the long-term viability of certain software business models. While some names with highly specialized, mission-critical offerings (e.g., electronic design automation, risk analytics) appear more insulated, others in general-purpose or less differentiated verticals are perceived as more vulnerable. The market’s reaction has been swift, with equity corrections and modest spread widening, particularly for issuers where future growth trajectories are now under greater scrutiny. The current market recalibration, differentiating likely AI winners from losers, is a healthy repricing process, not a sign of speculative excess. In particular, the selloff is warranted for software names whose products are easily replicated by AI or “vibe coded” clones, especially where offerings are rudimentary and R&D investment has been limited. Our analysts note that while existential threats may be overstated, the risk of decelerating revenue growth over time and increased M&A (to drive growth) or recapitalization activity is real, especially if equity valuations remain under pressure. Balance sheets today are healthy within IG software and any signs of displacement will not materialize over night.
Private Credit and BDCs: Concentration Risk and Market Implications
The software and SaaS sector was a favored target of private equity over the past decade, with buyout debt largely financed by private credit funds and their business development companies (BDCs). Today, BDC portfolios have approximately 20% exposure to software, a concentration that has drawn heightened scrutiny amid rising disruption risk. In comparison to public markets, this exposure is around 4% in high yield and 15% in broadly syndicated loans, underscoring the sector’s outsized influence on private credit performance. This elevated exposure has pressured the equity prices of publicly traded BDCs and contributed to modest spread widening on their bonds. Non-traded BDCs, already experiencing increased redemptions, may face further outflows as investor anxiety persists. Despite negative market sentiment, private credit executives have emphasized on recent investor calls that the majority of their software holdings continue to perform well. While some private credit software investments are likely to incur losses, we believe manager quality and underwriting discipline will be key differentiators.
Primary Market and Technicals
Primary IG supply from the technology sector remains robust, with hyperscalers and large-cap issuers driving the bulk of new issuance. However, the pace of supply is sensitive to market conditions and equity reactions, as indicated by recent capex announcements from Microsoft and Amazon. Our base case anticipates continued issuance, but with a bias toward opportunistic funding and potential shifts between USD and EUR markets depending on relative value and investor demand. Technicals remain a key driver, with fast money and hedge funds contributing to price action, while real-money investors remain selective, seeking clarity on true credit risk and portfolio resilience.
Conclusion
The intersection of AI disruption, duration risk, and market technicals is creating a complex landscape for IG investors in tech, software, and BDCs. While we see pockets of opportunity, particularly in high-quality, mission-critical software and well-structured BDC portfolios, rigorous credit selection and a focus on risk-adjusted returns are paramount. We remain constructive on the sector’s long-term fundamentals but advocate for a disciplined, selective approach as the market continues to recalibrate around new realities.