Week in review
- China exports rose 19% y/y in May
- China inflation rate increased 1.2% y/y in May
- U.S. core inflation rate was up 2.9% y/y in May
Week ahead
- China May industrial production and retail sales
- U.S. May retail sales and Fed interest rate decision
- Japan May inflation rate and BoJ interest rate decision
Thought of the week
China’s latest trade data sent a strong signal. Exports rose nearly 20% from a year earlier, supported by a sharp jump in components and integrated circuits, alongside a rebound in shipments to the U.S. This suggests that global demand for technology hardware remains resilient, particularly across the AI supply chain. Part of the strength likely also reflects companies accelerating shipments ahead of potential disruptions linked to Middle East tensions, which could create a pull-forward effect and leave future months weaker. For investors, key areas to watch include whether this front-loading begins to fade, how quickly costs and inventories adjust, and whether external demand continues to support manufacturing activity, given still-soft domestic indicators. If trade momentum softens, growth expectations may need to be reassessed.
China’s merchandise exports and imports
Year-on-year growth

Source: FactSet, China Customs, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data reflect most recently available as of 10/06/2026.
Market data

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