Week in review

• UK industrial production fell 3.5% in February
• U.S. CPI rose 2.6% y/y in March
• China Q1 GDP grew 18.3% y/y

Week ahead

• UK CPI, PPI
• ECB refinancing rate
• U.S. flash PMIs

Thought of the week

China’s trade activity was mixed in March. Despite soaring 30.6% year-over-year, exports were below consensus estimates (39.5%) and presented a moderation from January-February levels, where they averaged 60.6%. While last year’s low base would have contributed, February’s boost from an earlier-than-expected resumption in production as workers refrained from travelling could have also eaten into some of March’s numbers. On the imports side, China’s imports rose 38.1% year-over-year (vs. consensus 24.5%), further highlighting strong domestic activity and recovery. Looking forward, slowing demand for medical equipment, which had accounted for much of China’s export growth, along with a higher base heading into the second quarter, could present some headwinds for export growth. However, a rebound in global economic activity should still drive demand for overall Chinese exports higher in 2021.

China’s trade activity

Year-over-year growth

Source: China Customs, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.  
Data reflect most recently available as of 16/04/21.

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