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Guide to the Markets

Comprehensive insights on all the latest global economic and market developments.

Featured insights

Guide to the Markets

The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

Eye on the Market

Explore Eye on the Market, timely commentary that offers views on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios by Michael Cembalest.

The Essentials of Sustainable Investing

This paper discusses the importance of sustainable investing for investors, and the latest areas of focus that clients have been asking about, such as AI, help in scouting future growth opportunities, and food security.

On Investors' Minds - APAC Edition

Listen to the latest insights from Tai Hui to better understand what is happening in the financial markets from our Asia Pacific headquarters in Hong Kong

Listen on Apple Podcasts|Listen on Spotify

LATEST COMMENTARY

Will private credit’s resilience be tested soon?

This paper discusses the resiliency and flexibility of private credit structures, and the possible risks associated during a challenging economic environment.

Asia earnings update: How are companies reacting to tariff uncertainty?

This paper, written by Adrian Wong, highlights Asian equities' resilience amid tariff uncertainties, offering diversification with undemanding valuations.

If the U.S. sneezes this time, will Asia catch a cold?

This paper discusses the reasons why APAC could be more cushioned to withstand an economic downturn in the U.S. this time around, and the investment implications.

Not in a hurry

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

U.S. 1Q25 earnings update: Batten down the hatches

This paper discusses the strong first quarter U.S. earnings data points on the back of tariff uncertainty and a lower U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

Is the U.S. dollar’s role in global finance challenged?

This paper discusses the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar as a result of both policy and economic reasons, and the investment implications.

How can investors quickly diversify in times of market volatility?

This paper discusses how investors can diversify their portfolios during market volatility with liquid alternatives, risk management and tactical asset allocation for capital preservation and potential gains.

A good start, but what’s next? Key takeaways from the China data release

This paper discusses the latest GDP and economic activity numbers in China and the factors that may impact strong growth for the rest of 2025, along with the investment implications.

Should investors be concerned with the rise in U.S. Treasury yields?

This paper discusses the factors surrounding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, and the investment implications.

Trade Turbulence (Part 5): Pivoting with a pause in tariffs

This paper discusses the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.

Potential impacts of the April 2nd tariff announcements

This paper addresses the potential impacts of the universal and reciprocal tariffs announced by the U.S. on 2nd April, and the investment implications.

Reciprocal tariffs spark sharp market sell-off and increase recession risks

This paper discusses the major tariff announcements by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.

Investing principles: Steering the boat through choppy seas

This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of a diversified portfolio to manage market volatility and capture potential recovery upside.

Trade Turbulence (Part 4): Ahead of April 2

This paper discusses the tariff proposed and implemented by the Trump administration, and what to expect on April 2nd and the potential impact.

Separating the inflation signal from the policy noise

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

U.S. Market Correction: What’s next?

This paper discusses the slowdown in growth in the U.S. economy and the possibility of a recession on the back of policy uncertainty, and the investment implications.

2025 U.S. Policy Pulse

Insights on the 2024 U.S. general election, potential election outcomes, policy agendas and investment implications to help investors navigate the election cycle in portfolios.

Rethinking equity income as market uncertainties rise

This paper addresses the case for defensive and income seeking strategies on the back of growing uncertainties around government policies, geopolitics and monetary policies.

One stabilizer, two boosters: Key takeaways from Chinese NPC annual session

This paper discusses the key takeaways from the Chinese NPC annual session, and the investment implications for Chinese and Asian investors based off recent market volatility.

Principles for Successful Long-term Investing

Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.

How can we address market concentration risks?

This paper discusses how investors can manage the concentration risk in the global equity markets, and the investment implications from diversifying across indices, geographies and asset classes.

Trade Turbulence (Part 3): Potential tariff goals and implications for Asia

This paper discusses the motivation and impact of the proposed U.S. tariffs on its trading partners, and the investment implications.

Solving for Income

The Solving for Income presentation uses selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.

Solving for Fixed Income

Using selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of fixed income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.

Growth drag from policy uncertainty

This paper discusses the impact of higher tariffs and lower immigration on the U.S. economy, and the uncertainty accompanied by the rapid pace of the executive orders initiated by U.S. President Trump.

Which markets could be most impacted by reciprocal tariffs?

This paper discusses U.S. President Trump's trade and foreign policy approach, and the possible impact of reciprocal tariffs on markets.

From semis to services: the rally in Chinese soft tech

This paper discusses the upward trend in Chinese equities in 2025 on the back of the recent AI developments, and how more positive macro catalysts can help further sustain this market and investor sentiment.

Asian equities: A silver lining in the tariff fog

This paper, written by Adrian Wong, discusses the attractiveness of Asian equities on the back of 4Q earnings releases, and the investment implications.

The evolving tide: the present and future of maritime transport

This paper addresses the case for transport assets as a means for portfolio diversification on the back of broader trade uncertainty and economic volatility.

India still promising, even after losing momentum

This paper addresses why the Indian market continues to remain a promising investment opportunity in spite of recent downturn in macroeconomic and market performance.

The investment implications of the U.S. trade tensions

This paper addresses the recent trade tensions caused by the imposition of heavy tariffs by U.S. President Trump on Mexico, Canada and China, and the investment implications.

Patience with a pinch of hawkishness

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Why are developed market government bond yields rising?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the spike in developed market government bond yields in recent weeks on the back of political and economic circumstances, and the investment implications.

Twists and turns: Chinese data, policy prospects and investment implications

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the China 4Q 2024 GDP results on the back of policy stimulus measures, and the need to maintain policy consistency heading into 2025.

Reiterating investment principles when it comes to U.S. equities

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses U.S. equity investment, highlighting the importance of fundamentals, and managing portfolio during market fluctuations.

Trade turbulence (Part 2): Near-term pain, long-term gain for Asia trade

This paper discusses the near-term pains that await Asian economies from the proposed U.S. tariffs, and how Asia can navigate this trade uncertainty from a long-term perspective.

Robust economy and policy uncertainty tilts the Fed hawkish

At its final meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the Federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%, cutting rates by a 100 basis points (bps) or 300 bps annualized in 2024.

Asian equities: Seeking alpha amid trade uncertainty

This paper addresses the challenges that lie ahead for Asian equities in 2025 amid trade tensions and a strong U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

How could policy changes impact alternative investments?

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the potential impact of U.S. government policy changes on alternative assets.

Trade turbulence (Part 1): Navigating a potential U.S.-China trade war

This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu, addresses the broader impact of potential U.S. tariffs on China, and the investment implications.

Positives beyond corporate reform

This paper discusses the various drivers apart from corporate reforms that provide positive sentiment to the Japanese equity market, and the investment implications.

The beneficiaries of a U.S. corporate tax cut

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the impact of a U.S. corporate tax rate cut on corporate earnings, and the investment implications.

Market Outlook 2025

In our 2025 Market Outlook, we address 9 frequently asked questions by investors in the region and beyond. We hope our insights can help you navigate the road ahead, on the way to your investment objectives.

The road ahead: When will U.S. debt be too much?

This paper addresses the current market stability and investor confidence in the U.S. debt situation keeping in mind the long-term risks, and the investment implications.

U.S. Dollar strength and factors that could sustain the current rally

This paper discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar since September, driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields and President-elect Trump's policy stance, and the investment implications.

Future Fed Rate Decisions: Anticipating Responses to Fiscal Policy

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%, and the investment implications.

Potential Republican sweep sends markets higher, but policy uncertainty looms

This paper, written by David Kelly, Gabriela Santos and Stephanie Aliaga, discusses the potential Republican sweep in the U.S. elections, and the investment implications.

U.S. earnings amble along

This paper addresses the stabilization of S&P 500 earnings in the U.S. on the back of normalizing in growth and inflation, and the investment implications.

A dive into Chinese households’ balance sheets

This paper discusses the consumption outlook and the related impact of the policy stimulus in China from the lens of Chinese households' balance sheets and their vulnerabilities.

China market: Solid policy moves expected after initial valuation recovery

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the stimulus measures adopted by Chinese policy makers in response to deflationary risks, and the need for clearer future plans amid economic uncertainties.

Where is the U.S. dollar headed against Asian currencies?

This article addresses the U.S. dollar's varied performance against Asian currencies and factors affecting various currencies' strength.

Embracing Quality: Navigating global rate cut cycles

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of quality fixed income in a diversified portfolio amid diverse economic and monetary policy landscapes.

What can sustain the latest Chinese equity rally?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the impact of Beijing's coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.

Beyond the Asian heavyweights: ASEAN equities

This paper addresses the investment opportunities in ASEAN equities on the back of attractive valuations and robust income generation.

Policy recalibration kicks off with a 50bp rate cut

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Will lower yields lead to better performance in real estate markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the opportunities for investors in real estate markets on the back of expected decline in interest rates and bond yields.

What are the key policy implications in the 2024 presidential race?

In this piece, we compare the proposals of Vice-President Harris and former President Trump across taxes, trade and immigration, and the potential market implications of different election outcomes.

Positioning ahead of the Fed

This paper addresses the historical impact of "soft landings" and "hard landings" on asset classes, and how investors can position themselves with Fed rate cuts looming.

Are Asian central banks looking to cut rates soon?

This paper addresses the flexibility of Asian central banks to cut rates amidst easing inflation and robust recovery in currencies, and the investment implications on Asian equities and fixed income.

Why hasn’t the South Korean market done better?

This paper addresses the underperformance of the South Korean market despite strong earnings outlook, improving corporate governance and regulatory reforms, and steady macroeconomic outlook.

China’s drive toward self-sufficiency

This paper addresses how China has strengthened its self sufficiency in automobile and technology sectors, and the investment implications.

U.S. 2Q24 Earnings: Broadening out

This paper discusses the 2Q24 U.S. earnings season, with the eagerly anticipated broadening out of earnings growth for the companies outside the Magnificent 7, and the investment implications.

Markets sell-off recap: Navigating choppy waters

This paper discusses the recent market volatility in the U.S. and Asia on the back of the release of the U.S. July jobs report and latest Federal Reserve commentary, and the investment implications.

The Bank of Japan delivers the second rate hike and provides more detail on quantitative tightening

This paper discusses the BoJ’s decision to hike rates and reduce the pace of its JGB purchases in its latest policy meeting, and the investment implications.

Cuts are coming

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Can the U.S. small cap rotation continue?

This paper discusses whether the strength of the rotation into U.S. small caps is premature given weak fundamentals.

Is China improving?

This paper discusses the investment implications of the latest economic data release from China and the policy rate cut by the PBoC.

What are the potential implications of the U.S. Election for emerging markets?

With the U.S. election approaching, potential U.S. policy changes are a key concern for global investors. After most U.S. elections, the MSCI EM Index has had positive performance in the 100 days following.

Can the Bank of Japan’s policy further support Japanese equities?

This paper discusses how improving economic data can convince the BoJ to normalize monetary policy, and help Japan's earnings growth to outpace the U.S. and Europe in 2024-25.

Central bankers are not rushing into things

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses why policy easing amid a soft landing backdrop should be positive for both equities and fixed income.

Corporate governance reforms provide a bit of extra push

This paper discusses how corporate governance reforms in Asian markets can enhance earnings outlook, and the investment implications.

Is U.S. stock market concentration a warning sign?

This paper addresses the concerns over market concentration in the S&P 500, and the investment implications.

Global trade: navigating choppy waters

This paper discusses trade tensions and the recent tariff impositions on China, and the investment implications.

Is it still a good time to be a lender in private markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, highlights the growing significance and potential risks of private credit markets in enhancing returns and diversification.

The decimal and the dot

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Locking in yields as central banks dial back tight monetary policies

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, highlights the divergence in central bank monetary policies and its investment implications.

A tight outcome for India’s elections

This paper discusses the election results in India, and the investment implications of short-term valuation challenges and long-term positive prospects.

There’s still a case for Asian equities

This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, discusses why investors should take an active approach towards Asian equities in mitigating currency risks.

The investment implications of U.S. federal debt

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly and Jennifer Qiu, discusses investment implications of rising U.S. federal debt and widening deficits.

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Adrian Wong

Associate,

Global Market Strategist

2 years with J.P. Morgan

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Tai Hui

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Chaoping Zhu

Ian Hui

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Fumiaki Morioka

Jennifer Qiu, CFA

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Tai Hui

Marcella Chow

Kerry Craig

Agnes Lin

Shogo Maekawa

Chaoping Zhu

Ian Hui

Raisah Rasid

Fumiaki Morioka

Jennifer Qiu, CFA

Adrian Wong

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