Simplify the complex with our timely and thought-provoking insights on market events and outlook and make informed investment decisions more confidently.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, describes the situation of private markets under the prospect of higher rates, higher inflation and a slower growth outlook with investment implications. (4-minute read)
The message from the committee is clear, the Fed will expeditiously raise interest rates given it is “strongly committed” to tame inflation. (3-mins read)
While investors will inevitably be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy this week, one question on the back of everyone’s mind would be the risk of a recession in the U.S. (4-minute read)
Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses inflation and central bank policy in Asia, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the current China's COVID situation and future policy with its investment implications. (4-minute read)
Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.
The spike in yields through the first five months of this year has led to some very ugly returns in fixed income.
A re-rating of valuations has led to negative equity returns year-to-date, but importantly, earnings estimates have continued to trend higher. In an environment of rising rates, earnings will be the key driver of returns. (4-minute read)
The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.
The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, addresses the current volatility in global equity markets and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the current Chinese supply chain under the impact of the COVID-19 wave and Chinese policy, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by 0.50% to 0.75%-1.00% and signaled similar 50 basis point rate increases would be on the table for the next couple of meetings. (3-mins read)
Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the driving forces behind recent depreciation pressure in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, and what this means for investors. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the weakened Chinese economic data in March, and the subsequent policy and investment implications. (4-minute read)
2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic—as well as over the prior cycle—under pressure. (4-minute read)
Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.
2022 will likely remain volatile for equity markets, as central banks normalize alongside persistently hot-inflation and geopolitical issues result in prolonged uncertainty.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, looks at how food inflation is impacting Asian economies and what it means for investors. (6-minute read)
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses our long term views on the Chinese Yuan and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses how alternatives and core real assets can help investors increase diversification in their portfolios and generate uncorrelated sources of income. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Jordan Jackson, discusses our expectations for U.S. interest rates and what it means for investors. (6-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the latest development in China's policies, and what investors should look out for going forward. (4-minute read)
For the first time since December 2018, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by a ¼ percent to 0.25%-0.50% and made it clear further increases would be appropriate to tame inflation. (3-mins read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the market and economic impact of the latest COVID-19 wave in China. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Adrian Tong, discusses the key drivers within the transitory and sticky components of inflation and presents our thoughts around their paths lower. (6-minute read)
The Russia-Ukraine Chart Pack aims to help investors understand the investment implications of the current situation in Russia and Ukraine holistically and why it is important to stay invested
An inverted yield curve driven by short rates rising more than long-term yields has preceded every US recession since 1960 and is therefore a closely watched metric among investors regarding the outlook for the economy and markets.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, looks at how recent events have impacted stagflation impulses in different regions, and the implications for investors. (6-minute read)
As the events in Ukraine continue to unfold, this note seeks to answer the economic and market questions from investors around the world. (6-minute read)
A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.
The second paper of this two-part series written by Clara Cheong takes a deeper dive into the year-to-date performance, valuations, reasonableness of the earnings outlook for Asia ex-Japan equities and the investment implications. (9-mins read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses our expectations for the outcome of China's National People's Congress meeting and the investment implications. (4-minute read)
In this first part of a two-part paper written by Clara Cheong, we explore the common push-backs to investing in Asia ex-Japan and broader emerging market equities as we enter a monetary tightening regime in the U.S. (9-mins read)
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, explores what happened in the macroeconomic landscape during previous rate hiking cycles of the 70s, 80s and 90s and explain why risk assets generally delivered positive returns across Fed rate hiking cycles. (9-mins read)
The Solving for Income presentation uses selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.
Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.
In both a U.S. led boom-bust recession and global synchronous growth, international equities could outperform, suggesting a key role for the asset class in portfolio construction.
Fourth quarter earnings are off to a solid start and the more cyclical sectors are leading the charge. (4-minute read)
Geopolitical tension in Europe, strong demand recovery and weak supply growth are all contributing to higher oil prices. (4-minute read)
Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.
2021 was a year of steady reform introduction by Chinese authorities, focused on the long-term goals of improving the quality of growth and on addressing non-economic priorities like inequality, leverage, and decarbonization.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Jordan Jackson, looks at the outcome of the January FOMC meeting and implications for different asset classes. (8-minute read)
Today, there are more job openings than there are unemployed workers. Explore what impact a tight labour market could have on inflation in 2022.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, looks at the potential path of U.S. rate hikes and implications for different asset classes (6-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Zhu Chaoping, looks at recently released 4Q21 China economics data, inducing more monetary and fiscal stimulus, and the investment implications. (4-minute read)
Inflation is standing at record levels across many markets. Explore our framework for tracking the impact of supply chain disruption on inflation in 2022.
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the recent turn to hawkishness of developed market central bank policies and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Adrian Tong, looks at our deep-dive analysis into the forward-looking demand, supply chain issues, inflation and their investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Zhu Chaoping, discusses China's recent Central Economic Work Conference and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, discusses the FOMC's December meeting announcement.
In the spirit of the 2022 World Cup football tournament in Qatar, we field our starting lineup, or “starting 11” on investing in 2022 and address them using charts from our Market Insights program and Guide to the Markets - Asia.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential impact of the Omicron variant and the investment implications for investors.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent developments in Japan market, and several fundamental reasons that investors should pay attention to the investment opportunities it could potentially bring.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Kerry Craig, discusses the impact of the recent COVID-19 resurgence in China and other regions, and what it means for investors.
COP26 saw significant announcements in areas such as coal, methane and deforestation, yet progress fell short of the scale required to give us confidence that disruptive climate outcomes can be avoided. Physical climate risks warrant careful consideration for long-term investors.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, discusses the October CPI report and what it means for investors.
Despite a slowdown in 3Q21 economic growth, corporate profits have been better than expected. Investors should use profits as a guide, as rising interest rates could pressure multiples and leave earnings as the main driver of returns.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, discusses the October jobs report and what it means for investors.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, addresses the FOMC's November meeting and their tapering plans.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Ian Hui and Gareth Lam, discusses whether or not the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are hiking rates too slow or too fast, and what it means for investors.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential path of Fed monetary policy and the investment implications for investors.
Tai Hui, Chief Market Strategist Asia Pacific, and Zhu Chaoping, Global Market Strategist, discuss the potential investment implications of the newly released 3Q21 GDP data of China.
Stagflation has become a hotly debated topic among investors as inflation expectations rise and growth expectations fall. This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses our views on the topic and what it means to investors.
Discover why COP26 is important for investors. Explore the potential investment implications that could come with new climate objectives and commitments.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the market impact of the elections in the third and fourth largest economy in the world, and what this means for investors.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, addresses the FOMC's September meeting announcement.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the major challenges faced by China equity and fixed income market, and their investment implications.
Germans head to the polls later this month to elect a new government. With the race to replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor still uncertain, Global Market Strategist Tilmann Galler sets out the policy agenda of the main parties, considers the most likely coalition scenarios, and looks at how the election may impact the outlook for the German economy and markets.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the possible triggers for a U.S. market correction, and what this means for investors.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the recently released U.S. payroll statistics and potential impact on the possibility and path of the U.S. QE tapering policy rollout.
Top questions on Asian economic and financial market developments
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the near-term possibility that Asian central banks could look to normalize their monetary policy, and what this means for investors.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, looks into the key factors that we see leading to a sustainable move higher in government bond yields, and what this means for investors.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, compares the 2014 tapering with what is happening with U.S. monetary policy now, and what this means for investors.
While it may be tempting to chase recent performance, we continue to anticipate that the second half will see interest rates move higher, repricing more in-line with the above-trend pace of economic activity that currently characterizes our forecasts. This should be supportive of cyclical assets broadly, and allow value to outperform growth.
This paper, written by Ian Hui, discusses the importance of income generation in the face of uncertainty and volatility.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the economic policy insights provided by the recent Politburo meeting, and what this means for investors.
The Federal Open Market Committee statement highlighted the continued improvement in economic conditions due to progress on vaccinations, but noted risks to the outlook still remain, largely reflecting the rise in cases over the past few weeks in unvaccinated communities.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the Chinese new reforms and the subsequent selling pressure in Chinese equities, and what this means for investors.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses how the outlook for energy prices will shape the inflation outlook going forward, and what this means for investors.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, breaks down China's 2Q 2021 GDP data, and what this means for investors and Chinese policies going forward.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the confluence of both fundamental and technical factors that has led to a decline in government bond yields despite a still-robust outlook for growth, and what this means for investors.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses what the future path of the USD could look like given a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, and what this means for investors.
The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.
This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell’s decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.
A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the rebound in Chinese economic activity and its implications for investors.
A consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic is that developed market central banks have pushed policy rates to zero, while engaging in asset purchases to keep bond yields low.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the improving market sentiment and the outlook on equities.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an analysis of the potential long-term investment implications from COVID-19.
Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discussed the performance and outlook of Chinese economy, policies amid the global pandemic and implication for investors.
Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.
Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia
As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.
In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.
Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.
The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020
The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.
China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on capital markets following a rise in Chinese bond defaults.
Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.
The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.
Managing Director, Chief Market Strategist, Asia Pacific
Executive Director, Global Market Strategist
Vice President, Global Market Strategist
Vice President, Global Market Strategist
Vice President, Global Market Strategist
Vice President, Global Market Strategist
Vice President, Global Market Strategist
Managing Director, Chief Market Strategist, Asia Pacific
Executive Director, Global Market Strategist
Vice President, Global Market Strategist
Vice President, Global Market Strategist
Vice President, Global Market Strategist
Vice President, Global Market Strategist
Vice President, Global Market Strategist
