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Market Insights

Simplify the complex with our timely and thought-provoking insights on market events and outlook and make informed investment decisions more confidently.

FEATURED INSIGHTS

Guide to the Markets

The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

Eye on the Market

Explore Eye on the Market, timely commentary that offers views on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios by Michael Cembalest.

Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.

What could upset a happy New Year?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the key market risks heading into 2021.

Northeast and Southeast Asia paving the way to prosperity

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the recovery of various Asian economies from the COVID-19 pandemic and discusses the near-term and longer-term regional outlook.

Should investors worry about inflation?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on central bank policies to address inflation concerns heading into 2021.

The Year Ahead 2021

2020 has been an exceptional year, largely due to the onset of COVID-19 and the global economic fallout from the pandemic. This paper addresses nine questions that are most concerned by our clients regarding 2021 outlook for such an unusual economic and policy environment.

What are the implications of rising corporate bond defaults in China?

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on capital markets following a rise in Chinese bond defaults.

What does the end of the Fed’s credit facilities mean?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the ending of various Federal Reserve credit facilities in a time of lower fiscal support and weaker economic activity.

Was the 3Q earnings season really that great?

Thsi paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Cheung, analyzes the 3Q 2020 U.S. earnings results and the outlook for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Election 2020: Results and consequences

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly and Meera Pandit, provides the latest update on the U.S. presidential election and its investment implications.

How should investors consider the impact of climate change on their portfolios?

This paper, written by Vincent Juvyns, looks at how investors can manage climate-related risks in their portfolios, while also driving real change.

What should investors do, given the latest surge in COVID-19 in Europe and the U.S.?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent rebound in COVID-19 cases and their implications on global markets.

China’s recovery on track

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the latest Chinese GDP data and recovering economy with its investment implications.

The Fed’s Timetable

Turbulence defines today’s investment environment, with great waves of uncertainty surging from the pandemic, the election, fiscal policy and a slowdown in what had been, to this point, a sharp recovery from a very deep recession. The waves of uncertainty should fade in 2021 and, as they do so, the primary role of interest rates in determining asset class returns should reassert itself.

Are Chinese authorities worried about the Chinese yuan's strength?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese yuan following its recent strong performance.

What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?

This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell’s decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.

Rebalancing for high-quality growth: What to expect from China’s new five-year plan

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, gives our prospects about China’s upcoming 14th five-year plan. To be approved in October and implemented during 2021 to 2025, this plan will have profound impacts to Chinese economy and financial market.

What is the latest progress of China's economic recovery?

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following recent economic data releases.

Why should I invest in equities when they are already so expensive?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the positive outlook on global equities despite high valuations.

Can the market bounce back?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the longer-term outlook for equities following the recent sell-off of tech and growth stocks.

US presidential election 2020

All the analysis investors need as America selects its next president

What does the Fed’s latest change in monetary policy framework mean for Asian investors?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent statement by the Federal Reserve and its implications on global markets.

What are the implications from the latest review of the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the recent discussion between the U.S. and China regarding the Phase One trade agreement.

Loss aversion: How does this impact investors now?

Asymmetry between losses and gains is actually a very powerful bias that influences decision making and how people invest and allocate in markets.

Asia Insights

Top questions on Asian economic and financial market developments

Where do we stand in the economic recovery?

Last week, we learned that the unemployment rate fell to 10.2% in July.

Will tensions between the U.S. and China keep rising?

This paper, written by Gabriela Santos, discusses the outlook for U.S.-China tensions amidst COVID-19 and the upcoming election season.

The Investment Implications of the Coronavirus Debt Surge

Notes on the week ahead from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist

Introducing our Asia COVID-19 tracker

This paper, written by Ian Hui and Alex Yeo, provides a framework for comparing the policy responses and risks faced by Asian economies from the pandemic.

What are earnings forecasts telling us about the recovery?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.

How should current conditions be reflected in asset allocation?

We revisit asset allocation views as the global economy appears to be in the early innings of recovery, but stares down the limitations to growth in a pre-vaccine world.

Is the U.S. dollar weakness here to stay? What should investors do?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.

Could a second wave of outbreak derail economic recovery?

A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.

2Q20 Earnings: Guide me to your profits

Equity markets have rebounded quickly from their March lows on the back of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy response. Although technology and healthcare are holding up relatively well compared to the more cyclical parts of the equity market, 2Q2020 should mark a low point for earnings.

More than ever, monetary policy is being dictated by the virus

This paper examines the economic outlook following the recent Federal Open Market Comittee meeting.

Could the policy response to Covid-19 lead to a resurgence in inflation?

Central banks are printing money and governments are showering it round the economy. Government debts levels are eye-wateringly high. It's no wonder investors are questioning whether a resurgence in inflation is on the cards.

EU agrees on budget and recovery fund: A step towards more integration

After four days of negotiations the European Union (EU) council has come to an agreement on a EUR 1,074 billion Multiannual Financial Framework and a EUR 750 billion Next Generation EU recovery fund.

China’s 2Q GDP and June economic data improve on post-COVID rebound

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the rebound in Chinese economic activity and its implications for investors.

Is the Fed reducing liquidity?

The size of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) balance sheet has started to shrink in recent weeks. Its balance sheet has declined 2.9%, or USD 210billion (bn), from its peak of USD 7.17trillion (tn) in June. Some investors are worried that the Fed is now intentionally dialing back its liquidity support and what the implication of this may be for markets.

Monitoring the global impact of COVID-19

The spread of the coronavirus and its impact on global economic activity has materially changed the investment outlook for 2020. In this piece we provide a framework for tracking infection rates globally and monitoring the impact on economic activity.

Why should investors take a look at the Chinese fixed income market?

A consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic is that developed market central banks have pushed policy rates to zero, while engaging in asset purchases to keep bond yields low.

Does re-opening mean re-orienting equities?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the improving market sentiment and the outlook on equities.

What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.

What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.

What are some of the long-term structural changes from the COVID-19 pandemic?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an analysis of the potential long-term investment implications from COVID-19.

Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?

Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control.

Chinese GDP in Recession amid Virus Outbreak

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discussed the performance and outlook of Chinese economy, policies amid the global pandemic and implication for investors.

How vulnerable are emerging markets?

Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.

Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?

Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia

China set to advance stimulus efforts

As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.

A COVID-driven spike in claims

Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.

The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.

What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.

The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability

In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.

Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?

Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.

Equity markets fall into correction

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.

Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?

The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.

What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020

Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks?

The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.

What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?

China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.

Is the U.S.-China trade war over?

Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.

Should investors still worry about US-China trade?

The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.

Tai Hui

Managing Director, Chief Market Strategist, Asia Pacific

8 years with J.P. Morgan

20 years in the Industry

View Full Profile

Kerry Craig

Executive Director, Global Market Strategist

10 years with J.P. Morgan

13 years in the Industry

View Full Profile

Dr. Jasslyn Yeo, CFA, CAIA, CFTe

Executive Director, Global Market Strategist

5 years with J.P. Morgan

14 years in the Industry

View Full Profile

Marcella Chow

Vice President, Global Market Strategist

5 years with J.P. Morgan

12 years in the Industry

View Full Profile

Ian Hui

Vice President, Global Market Strategist

8 years with J.P. Morgan

15 years in the Industry

View Full Profile

Chaoping Zhu

Vice President, Global Market Strategist

3 years with J.P. Morgan

12 years in the Industry

View Full Profile

Agnes Lin

Vice President, Global Market Strategist

4 years with J.P. Morgan

20 years in the Industry

View Full Profile

Shogo Maekawa

Vice President, Global Market Strategist

8 years with J.P. Morgan

8 years in the Industry

View Full Profile

Tai Hui

Managing Director, Chief Market Strategist, Asia Pacific

Kerry Craig

Executive Director, Global Market Strategist

Dr. Jasslyn Yeo, CFA, CAIA, CFTe

Executive Director, Global Market Strategist

Marcella Chow

Vice President, Global Market Strategist

Ian Hui

Vice President, Global Market Strategist

Chaoping Zhu

Vice President, Global Market Strategist

Agnes Lin

Vice President, Global Market Strategist

Shogo Maekawa

Vice President, Global Market Strategist

Article Tags: Market Insights

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Stay Current

FEATURED INSIGHTS

Guide to the Markets

Eye on the Market

Tai Hui

Kerry Craig

Dr. Jasslyn Yeo, CFA, CAIA, CFTe

Marcella Chow

Ian Hui

Chaoping Zhu

Agnes Lin

Shogo Maekawa

Tai Hui

Kerry Craig

Dr. Jasslyn Yeo, CFA, CAIA, CFTe

Marcella Chow

Ian Hui

Chaoping Zhu

Agnes Lin

Shogo Maekawa

Copyright 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Market Insights

Stay Current

FEATURED INSIGHTS

Guide to the Markets

Eye on the Market

LATEST COMMENTARY

Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?

What could upset a happy New Year?

Northeast and Southeast Asia paving the way to prosperity

Should investors worry about inflation?

The Year Ahead 2021

What are the implications of rising corporate bond defaults in China?

What does the end of the Fed’s credit facilities mean?

Was the 3Q earnings season really that great?

Election 2020: Results and consequences

How should investors consider the impact of climate change on their portfolios?

What should investors do, given the latest surge in COVID-19 in Europe and the U.S.?

China’s recovery on track

The Fed’s Timetable

Are Chinese authorities worried about the Chinese yuan's strength?

What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?

Rebalancing for high-quality growth: What to expect from China’s new five-year plan

What is the latest progress of China's economic recovery?

Why should I invest in equities when they are already so expensive?

Can the market bounce back?

US presidential election 2020

What does the Fed’s latest change in monetary policy framework mean for Asian investors?

What are the implications from the latest review of the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement?

Loss aversion: How does this impact investors now?

Asia Insights

Where do we stand in the economic recovery?

Will tensions between the U.S. and China keep rising?

The Investment Implications of the Coronavirus Debt Surge

Introducing our Asia COVID-19 tracker

What are earnings forecasts telling us about the recovery?

How should current conditions be reflected in asset allocation?

Is the U.S. dollar weakness here to stay? What should investors do?

Could a second wave of outbreak derail economic recovery?

2Q20 Earnings: Guide me to your profits

More than ever, monetary policy is being dictated by the virus

Could the policy response to Covid-19 lead to a resurgence in inflation?

EU agrees on budget and recovery fund: A step towards more integration

China’s 2Q GDP and June economic data improve on post-COVID rebound

Is the Fed reducing liquidity?

Monitoring the global impact of COVID-19

Why should investors take a look at the Chinese fixed income market?

Does re-opening mean re-orienting equities?

What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?

What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?

What are some of the long-term structural changes from the COVID-19 pandemic?

Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?

Chinese GDP in Recession amid Virus Outbreak

How vulnerable are emerging markets?

Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?

China set to advance stimulus efforts

A COVID-driven spike in claims

The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation

What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?

The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability

Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?

What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?

Equity markets fall into correction

Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?

What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?

Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks?

What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?

Is the U.S.-China trade war over?

Should investors still worry about US-China trade?

Tai Hui

Kerry Craig

Dr. Jasslyn Yeo, CFA, CAIA, CFTe

Marcella Chow

Ian Hui

Chaoping Zhu

Agnes Lin

Shogo Maekawa

Tai Hui

Kerry Craig

Dr. Jasslyn Yeo, CFA, CAIA, CFTe