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    1. Insights

    Insights to empower better decisions

    Tools and resources necessary to help you make informed investment decisions and build stronger portfolios

    EXPLORE OUR FLAGSHIP INSIGHTS

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    Liquidity Insights

    Discover our vast array of liquidity insights covering global investment news and trends.

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    Market Insights

    Simplify the complex with our thought-provoking insights written by our global team of strategists.

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    Eye on the Market

    Explore timely commentary on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios by Michael Cembalest.

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    Get perspectives and analysis from our investment teams to help guide portfolio decisions.

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    LIQUIDITY INSIGHTS EYE ON THE MARKET MARKET UPDATES
    LIQUIDITY INSIGHTS

    BoE hike in May, recession gone away

    The Bank of England (BoE) raised the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50% in a split 7-2 vote as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) believes persistent inflationary pressures and a tight labour market justified a twelfth consecutive increase.

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    ECB slows hikes, but has “more ground to cover”

    At its 4th of May monetary policy meeting, the ECB increased all three key interest rates by 25bps, bringing the refinancing rate to 3.75%, the marginal lending facility to 4.00% and the deposit facility rate to 3.25%.

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    The U.S. debt ceiling: Latest thoughts and updates

    The U.S. federal government reached its debt limit - Commonly called the “debt ceiling”, the debt limit is the maximum amount of debt that the U.S. Department of the Treasury can issue to the public or to other federal agencies.

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    The RBA’s narrowing path to a soft landing

    At its monetary policy meeting on May 3, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the market by hiking its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%. Justifying its abrupt volte-face, the central bank said “inflation… is still too high and it will be some time yet before it is back in the target range”.

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    MAS pauses as growth outlook dims

    Following its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on April 14, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left its prevailing monetary policy unchanged – including the slope, width and center-point of the band – unchanged. This represents the central bank’s first pause since it began tightening its policy in October 2021.

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    RBA - On hold for now

    On 4 April, the Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%. This represents the first pause by a major central bank and follows a cumulative 350bps of hikes over the past ten consecutive meetings.

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    The Fed’s balancing act

    The FOMC maintained its firm stance against inflation by raising interest rates 25bps to 4.75%-5.00%, despite heightened financial stability risk. Interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the overnight reverse repo rate (RRP) were also increased by equivalent amounts to 4.9% and 4.8%, respectively.

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    Bank of England keeping options on the table

    At its March 2023 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.25%, the highest level since November 2008. The increase was largely expected by the market despite recent global financial market volatility.

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    PBOC RRR cut – Front Loading Policy Support

    On Friday 17th March, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a broad-based 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) rate cut, releasing additional liquidity into the banking system and reducing commercial bank funding costs.

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    ECB sticks with 50bps hike, despite market turmoil

    The European Central Bank (ECB) acted on February’s forward guidance by increasing key interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), despite current market volatility.

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    Reserve Bank of Australia - A pivot to less hawkish

    At its monetary policy meeting on the 7th of March, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to an eleven-year high of 3.60%. The rate hike was widely anticipated following last month’s hawkish pivot.

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    Hong Kong Interest Rates – rational confusion

    The HKMA intervened to defend the peg and purchased HKD 19bn on February 14-15. This has reduced its aggregate balance to HKD 77bn, the lowest level in almost three years.

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    RBA – No pause yet

    At its first monetary policy meeting of 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.35%. The move represents the ninth consecutive hike in the current cycle, and the accompanying statement was more hawkish than expected.

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    ECB stays the course towards inflation reduction

    The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with expectations to a 15-year high of 3.00%. In the accompanying statement and subsequent press conference, the ECB maintained its hawkish tone, signalled an intention to increase rates by a further 50 bps in March.

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    UK turns a corner but risks remain large

    The Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 4.00% in a split 7-2 vote as a tight labour market and continued domestic wage and price pressures justified a tenth consecutive increase.

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    On The U.S. Debt Ceiling

    To prevent the United States from defaulting on its payment obligations, the Treasury will now be forced to utilize its cash balances and take steps towards “extraordinary measures.”

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    Downshift, but still hiking

    The FOMC unanimously decided to downshift to a smaller but, in the words of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, “still historically large increase” of 50 bps.

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    RBA – debating hikes and lags

    At their final monetary policy meeting of 2022, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to a decade high of 3.10%.

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    PBoC cuts RRR – A renewed dovish signal

    On Friday 25 November, the People’s Bank of China announced a 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio cut. In the accompanying statement, the PBoC confirmed the RRR cut was part of a package of measures to support economic growth.

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    Stepping out for the Fed pivot

    After a series of jumbo rate hikes, it appears most investors are anticipating a pivot from the US Federal Reserve. However, the elevated level of inflation and resilience of the economy mean that rate cuts are unlikely for some time.

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    Fed - The lag effect

    The FOMC showed once again that it is prepared to take interest rates into sufficiently restrictive territory in order to clamp down on inflation. For the fourth consecutive meeting, it unanimously decided to increase its Federal Funds target rate by 75bps to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. Interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the overnight RRP were also increased by equivalent amounts to 3.80% and 3.90%, respectively.

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    RBA committed to a slower cadence

    At its monetary policy meeting on 1 November, the RBA raised the Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 2.85%. This was the seventh hike in the current cycle, taking base rates to a nine-year high.

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    Monetary Authority of Singapore - Leaning against price pressures

    At its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on 14 October, the MAS re-centered the mid-point of the S$NEER up to its prevailing level – approximately a 2% increase – while keeping the slope and width of the policy band unchanged.

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    RBA: A commitment to guidance to balance inflation and growth

    At its monetary policy meeting on 4 of October, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its Overnight Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.60%

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    A divided Bank of England delivers 50bps as rates rise to 2.25%

    The Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 2.25% in a split 5-3-1 vote as the tight labour market, higher wages and higher domestic inflation justified a seventh consecutive hike.

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    Getting tough on inflation

    The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided to increase its federal funds target rate by 75bps for the third consecutive meeting, as Fed officials remain focused on dampening inflation.

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    RBA’s latest rate hike: Peak hawkishness?

    The front-loading of rate hikes and belief that inflation is expected to peak later this year and then decline back towards the 2–3% range does suggest that the RBA may have reached peak hawkishness.

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    HKMA - defending the currency peg to the last breath

    The recent, aggressive Fed interest rate tightening policy, combined with Hong Kong’s weak economic outlook, moribund Chinese growth and subdued local market sentiment, has pushed the HKD towards the weak side of its convertibility. The HIBOR-LIBOR spread has also widened the most since 2019.

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    PBOC attempts to jump-start the economy

    On August 15, the People’s Bank of China announced a MLF rate cut of 10bps to 2.75%. Although small in size, the rate cut confirms the PBOC’s desire to jump-start the economy and sends an important monetary policy signal with significant implications for interest rates and RMB cash investors.

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    RBA hikes rates, but pivots from a “pre-set path”

    At its monetary policy meeting on August 2, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in-line with expectations, hiked the base rate by 50bps to 1.85%, taking total rate hikes to 175bps over the past 4-months.

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    When does unusually large become usual?

    On July 27, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its Federal Funds Rate target range by 75 basis points (bps) to 2.25% - 2.50%. There were no dissenters.

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    The Monetary Authority of Singapore – an expected surprise of S$NEER hike

    On July 14, the MAS announced it would tighten monetary policy by re-centering the S$NEER policy band upwards. While the timing of the MAS statement was a surprise, the market was expecting further policy actions.

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    The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered back-to-back 50bps rate hikes

    At its monetary policy meeting on July 5, the RBA hiked its overnight cash rate by 50bps to 1.35%. This was also the third rate hike in the current cycle, and the first time ever the central bank has executed back-to-back 50bps hikes, reinforcing its inflation fighting credentials.

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    Fed gets aggressive on inflation

    The Federal Open Market Committee matched market expectations for a 75bp increase to its target range, which now sits at 1.50%-1.75%. It also raised the Interest on Reserve Balances and the overnight Reverse Repo Rate by an equivalent amount to 1.65% and 1.55%, respectively.

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    The Reserve Bank of Australia: moving ahead of the curve?

    On June 7, the RBA surprised the market by raising the Overnight Cash Rate by 50bps to 0.85%. This is the second rate hike in the current cycle, following a 25bps move in early May. The size of the rate hike also affirms the RBA’s desire to get ahead of the inflation fighting curve.

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    The Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish turn

    The RBA hiked its Overnight Cash Rate for the first time in over a decade at its 3rd May monetary policy meeting. The hike was more hawkish than expected.

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    Monetary Authority of Singapore – affirming its inflation fighting credentials

    At its semi-annual policy meeting on 14 April, the MAS announced its decision to further tighten monetary policy. The announcement and upward revision to the MAS's growth and inflation outlook will have important implications for Singapore interest rates and cash investment opportunities.

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    Reserve Bank of Australia: From patience to pragmatism

    At its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday 5th of April, the RBA left base rates unchanged at a record low of 0.1% whilst acknowledged that “inflation has picked up and a further increase is expected” in the accompanying comments. Its hawkish tilt and giving a clear hint to potential rate rises in the coming months.

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    Fed lift-off

    On 15-16 March, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its two-day meeting and raised its federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.25%-0.5%, with one dissenting member calling for a 50bps increase.

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    The Reserve Bank of Australia: Stressing patience, confirming plausibility

    At their first monetary policy meeting of 2022, the RBA acknowledged that the economy “remains resilient” despite the recent Omicron outbreak which has not derailed the recovery.

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    A surprise, pre-emptive policy hike by the Monetary Authority of Singapore

    Singapore’s de-facto central bank hiked the slope of the S$NEER policy band, increasing the pace of appreciation. The unexpected hike was triggered by the strong inflation uptrend in recent days as well as a reassessment of Singapore’s growth and inflation expectations in 2022 by the MAS.

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    Inflation in Asia Pacific - A different phenomenon

    Rising inflation concerns are amplifying developed market rate hike expectations; in contrast APAC central banks have benefitted from more muted CPI. The rationale for this difference has important implications for investors.

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    PBOC latest deposit price reform – limited implications for cash investors

    In June 2021, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced changes to commercial banks’ mechanism for setting the time deposit ceiling from a multiplier method to a basis points method.

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    PBoC RRR Cut - A dovish policy signal

    On 9 July 2021, the PBoC announced a 50bps RRR cut that will reduce bank funding costs and unleash a substantial quantity of liquidity support. The size of the rate cut surprised the market and confirmed the authority’s dovish pivot.

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    EYE ON THE MARKET

    Too Long at the Fair

    Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while

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    Oh, The Places We Could Go

    Oh, The Places We Could Go: on the US dollar, reserve currencies and the South China Morning Post

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    Frankenstein's Monster

    Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent convertible securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.

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    Eye on the Market 13th Annual Energy Paper

    Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.

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    Silicon Valley Bank failure

    One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.

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    Winter Heating

    US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot

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    American Gothic

    The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it.

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    The End of the Affair

    The End of the Affair. The affair with market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. A look at a world of higher inflation, more regionalized trade and investment and more capital scarcity.

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    Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck

    A discussion of the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX and three rules for investors: the Gensler Rule, the Sirens Rule and the Summers Rule. Our 2023 Outlook will be released as usual on January 1st.

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    Little Red Wagon

    A preliminary read on midterm election results given the context of prevailing market and economic conditions.

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    A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

    My list of things I am thankful for this year: CH4, HR4346 and mRNA-1273. Of course, your mileage may vary.

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    Reruns

    Three reruns for investors. First, in almost every post-war bear market, equity declines preceded the fall in earnings, growth and employment. As a result, we’re more focused on changes in manufacturing surveys than on the other victims of a recession as a sign of the bottom. Second, Graham Allison’s rising power conflict analysis and its historical precedents come back into focus with the latest US policies cutting off high performance semiconductor exports to China. Third, another press article on a small country as a prototype for a renewable future that does not address its irrelevance for larger developed or developing economies.

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    Arrested Development

    Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much greater probability of recession now, the credit markets are just getting started. One canary in the coal mine: the Citrix financing, which will be followed by a string of even weaker credits. On labor markets, the Fed is facing the tightest labor supply conditions in decades. Can second chance policies easing the path to employment for people with criminal arrest records help increase the labor supply, or will the Fed have to crush the economy to restore desired levels of wage and price inflation? Lastly, an update on bivalent vaccines and inhalable vaccines, as the latter offers the best chance of actually reducing infection and transmission.

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    On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

    Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.

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    The second gear of the Manchin-Schumer bill

    Whenever there’s a tax/spending bill passed by Congress, the Congressional Budget Office “scores” the bill with respect to its impact on deficits, debt and GDP.

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    Long Hot Summer Reading List

    Most summer reading lists are carefully curated, inspirational elegies to the human spirit. This is not that. See today’s note for links to reading materials on energy, economics, finance, the Supreme Court, geopolitics and COVID/cancer research as this long hot summer rolls on. Also, a look at the recently unearthed “Shakespeare’s Annotated Guide to Bitcoin”.

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    Independence Days

    Europe’s energy crisis, China’s commodity trade war with Australia and other examples of resource nationalism (India and Indonesia restrictions on exports of wheat, sugar and palm oil) have reinforced the following: relying on essential food and energy imports is a risky proposition with respect to supply, price, currency stability and national security.

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    Dearly beloved

    JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated last week that he expects a “hurricane” resulting from the end of the largest fiscal and monetary experiment in history, and from the ongoing impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on food and energy prices.

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    Dude, Where’s My Stuff?

    The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. A close look at some very anomalous charts on shipping, semiconductors, inventories, labor shortages, foreclosures and mortality.

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    Your Fall 2021 syllabus

    Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology BI66 “The Origins of COVID” has been cancelled until further notice.

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    Red Med Redemption

    Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US economic recovery update, and big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth at a time of rising anti-trust enforcement. We conclude with a new “Investor Odds & Ends” section that covers NYC hotel/office markets and possible changes in personal, corporate and international tax rates.

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    Thy Brother’s Keeper

    COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).

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    Food Fight: 2021 private equity update

    Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.

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    Election 2020 - Praying for Time

    The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

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    The Needle and the Damage Done

    The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General

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    The Bounce

    The US recovery; The flood of money and market returns; Globalization lives; Reducing COVID mortality through vascular treatments; Realistic timetables for never-been-done before vaccines; Sweden’s COVID experiment is not what you think

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    The Day After

    Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer with real time data as a function of infection levels and state policy. Additional topics: no evidence yet of material second waves of COVID infection, and a round-up of the latest news on vaccine trials (Moderna, Oxford, Sinovac) and anticoagulants.

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    Zoom Room

    In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.

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    Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

    An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.

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    State's Rights

    In this week’s note, we discuss the latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.

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    Are we there yet?

    Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet?

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    COVID and culture

    In this week's note, we take a close look at country and regional virus data, and examine the pitfalls of over-extrapolating trends that often reverse.

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    The equity rally and herd immunity

    After the equity rally, P/E multiples are back at around 16x 2021 consensus earnings.

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    Man vs Nature Part II

    Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.

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    Man vs Nature: what the government can and cannot fix

    There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can't.

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    John Stuart Mill and the road from ruin to recovery

    There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.

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    The pandemic gap

    A lot of data is being made available on the coronavirus, but most of it requires careful analysis before drawing conclusions.

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    Berning Man

    Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago?

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    COVID-19 update

    A Coronavirus update: severity, consequences and implications for investors.

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    Millions and Trillions

    Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.

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    Rotten Tomatoes

    Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point. A brief note on what happened, and the alternatives.

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    Ghosts of Christmas Past

    After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.

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    War of the Worlds

    How a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.

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    The Armageddonists

    While recessions and bear markets are a fact of life, something peculiar happened after the Global Financial Crisis: the rise of the Armageddonists.

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    Warren Peace

    A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.

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    Active Management and QE-distorted markets

    Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers and discusses the challenges they face.

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    Cold Turkey

    A brief comment on a proposal from leading Presidential candidates to ban hydraulic fracturing everywhere, immediately.

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    So long Yellow Brick Road

    It was a long, hot summer at the Heritage Foundation. An update from the front lines of the Trade War.

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    Lost in Space: The Search for Democratic Socialism in the Real World

    Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.

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    Listen when people tell you who they are

    Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.

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    Smoot Hardly

    The US-China trade war, prescription drug price legislation and the 2020 election.

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    Energy Outlook 2019: Mountains and Molehills

    Topics: unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal; overview of the world’s decarbonization challenges; Germany’s energy transition; Trump’s War on Science.

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    MARKET UPDATES

    U.S. Tech: More room to run?

    This paper, written by Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the recent U.S. equity rally and the outlook for U.S. technology stocks.

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    What are global central banks going to do in 2H 2023?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the expectations of global monetary policy in 2H23 and the investment implications. ​

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    1Q23 U.S. earnings: Better than expected

    This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Nimish Vyas, discusses the 1Q23 U.S. corporate earnings and the investment implications.

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    Debt-Ceiling Cliff Dancing

    This paper, written by David Kelly, discusses the U.S. debt-ceiling issue and the investment implications.

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    A pivot-al decision

    In a highly anticipated policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 5.00%-5.25%, the highest level since June 2006.

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    Don’t overlook the investment case for Asia fixed income

    This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses the outlook for Asia fixed income and the investment implications.

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    Will the U.S. dollar go “digital”?

    This paper, written by Jack Manley, discusses the new payment service FedNow and its implications on the U.S. dollar.

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    China’s road to recovery

    This paper, written by Chaoping, discusses the latest Chinese economic data and the investment implications.

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    Playing devil’s advocate with our 2Q 2023 market view

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the challenges to our key asset allocation views.

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    Will the U.S. experience a credit crunch?

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Marcella Chow, discusses the recent tightening of credit conditions, risk of a recession and the investment implications.

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    Banking turmoil does little to shift Fed’s focus from the inflation war

    This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

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    Could the recent banking sector stress persuade the Fed to go slow?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent bank failures and our expectations of the March FOMC meeting results.

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    Is 2% still the magic number for central banks?

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the Fed's 2% inflation target and our expectations of the inflation trajectory.

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    SVB and the Fed: Braking Point not Breaking Point

    This paper summarizes the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the implications on Fed policy and investments. (3-min read)

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    A weaker U.S. dollar should support EM and Asian assets

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the outlook for U.S. dollar and the key factors driving its performance with investment implications.

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    The impact of higher interest rates on housing and consumers

    Learn whether rising interest rates could cause a housing market crash and what it means for consumers.

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    China NPC preview

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides the preview of the National People's Congress annual session and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

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    The path ahead for Japan’s monetary policy

    This paper, written by Marcella Chow, Shogo Maekawa​, Jennifer Qiu and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for Japan's monetary policy and its investment implications.​

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    Principles for Successful Long-term Investing

    Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.

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    Solving for income

    The Solving for Income presentation uses selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.

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    Navigating rates and growth uncertainty within fixed income

    This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses our views on growth and rates, as well as the outlook for different fixed income assets. (3-minute read)

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    4Q22 U.S. Earnings: The calm before the storm?

    This paper, written by David Lebovitz and Nimish Vyas, discusses the 4Q22 U.S. earnings results so far and the investment implications. (3-minute read)

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    Disagreement between the Fed and investors could bring more volatility

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses U.S. growth and inflation, as well as expectations of the Fed's upcoming rate decisions.

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    The spillover effects of China’s reopening

    This paper, written by Marcella Chow, Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the impact of China’s reopening on tourism, trade and inflation.

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    Marking the bottom of the Chinese economic cycle

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy with update on latest GDP number and situation of COVID-19. (3-minute read)

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    A policy party to end 2022

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, Chaoping Zhu, Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, discusses continued hawkishness among DM central banks and China's Central Economic Work Conference.

    Read more

    The Fed remains determined to fight inflation

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to raise the Federal funds rate target range by 0.50% to 4.25%-4.50%. (3-min read)

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    Dovish undertones with more tightening to come

    This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

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    China market: buoyant market sentiment along a bumpy road to recovery

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy and CNY in light of the recent easing of COVID restrictions and upcoming policy conferences.

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    All eyes on U.S. consumers this holiday season

    This paper, written by Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the mixed outlook for U.S. consumer spending given lower savings rate, real wage growth and consumer sentiments.

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    The Year Ahead 2023

    We believe 2023 is likely to be a year of subpar economic performance among developed economies. However, policy support and relatively attractive valuations across many asset classes could facilitate a better year for investors. In our 2023 Year Ahead, we address the 10 most frequently asked questions on the economy and asset allocation from investors across Asia.

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    Gridlock means greater focus on inflation and the Fed

    This paper, written by Meera Pandit, Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for markets after the mid-term U.S. elections.

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    What is the outlook for long-term returns?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui and David Lebovitz, discusses the outlook for the macroeconomic environment and asset class returns based on the 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions.

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    A glimpse of hope for U.S. and China equities?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook for U.S. and China equities after recent economic and policy news. (3-minute read)

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    Key events to watch out for to gauge China’s policy pivot

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook for China’s policy pivot and the investment implications.

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    Opportunities within fixed income: A trick or a treat?

    This paper, written by Ian Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for fixed income and the investment implications.

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    The advantage of high dividend stocks in a stagflationary environment

    Explore how dividend paying stocks can help build portfolio resilience against the prospects of high inflation and recession.

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    What should investors expect for 3Q22 earnings?

    This paper, written by Nimish Vyas and Adrian Tong, discusses the S&P500 3Q22 earnings so far and the investment implications. (3-minute read)

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    Politics and policy: The U.S. midterm elections

    This paper, written by Tai Hui and Meera Pandit, discusses the policy and market outlook with regards to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. (3-minute read)

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    Are European assets cheap enough?

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Vincent Juvyns, Marcella Chow and Hugh Gimber, discusses the outlook of European equities and fixed income. (3-minute read)

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    After robust job gains, is the labor market coming into balance?

    The September Jobs report showed the economy continues to make progress in easing labor market tightness. The recent pace of job growth remains solid but has moderated, and wage growth continues to run at a more modest pace of 0.3% month-over-month.

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    Why cash is not king

    This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses why investors should stay invested through an income approach. (3-minute read)

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    The challenge facing UK policymakers to stabilize sterling markets

    This paper discusses the current uncertainties surrounding the UK government and economy, as well as market movements and outlook. (3-minute read)

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    A strong U.S. dollar and impact on Asian currencies

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses our outlook for the U.S. dollar and its investment implications on Asian assets and currencies. (3-minute read)

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    Hawkish moves and hawkish guidance

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds rate by 0.75% to a range of 3.00%-3.25%. (3-mins read)

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    Catalysts for growth style outperformance

    This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the current outlook of growth stocks and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

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    The pros and cons of U.S. high yield corporate bonds

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook of the U.S. high yield corporate bonds and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

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    Is it a bad idea to invest in EM equities during a Fed rate hike cycle?

    This paper, written by Gabriela Santos and Anjali Balani, discusses the current outlook for EM equities and its investment implications.

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    Fed policy outlook after Jackson Hole

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, summarizes the key takeaways from the Jackson Hole meeting and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

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    Who will ride out the DM turbulence best?

    Recession warnings from the U.S. and Europe threaten to derail Asian economies’ nascent recovery, mainly through a drag on export demand.

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    How will the Inflation Reduction Act impact the economy?

    This week, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a legislative package that includes climate spending, prescription drug pricing reform, and tax reform, was signed into law. The IRA represents a meaningful commitment to climate goals and should reduce the deficit over the next decade but is unlikely to reduce inflation and will weigh on 2023 profits.

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    U.S. 2Q22 earnings update: Where have all the earnings gone?

    This paper, written by David Lebovitz, Ian Hui and Nimish Vyaz, summarizes the 2Q22 U.S. earnings result and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

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    The outlook for Asian electronics and internet platforms

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the current situation and development of Asian technology sector with investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    Understanding U.S. recessions

    This paper addresses the characteristics of U.S. recessions, the economic and market indicators that would help to identify the threat of recessions with its investment implications.

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    The 60/40 Reloaded

    This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views on enhancing the 60/40 portfolio in today's market environment with investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    A commitment to data dependency suggests a less hawkish Fed going forward

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds rate by 0.75% to a range of 2.25%-2.50%. (3-mins read)

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    Is an earnings recession in the U.S. imminent?

    ​This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views regarding the earnings recession in the U.S. and path of inflation with investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    China’s economy: a gradual recovery in 2H 2022

    ​This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the prospects and views regarding the gradual recovery of China's economy and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    Investors should not lose sight on sustainability as a long-term investment theme

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the sustainability as a long-term investment theme and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    A few thoughts on fixed income

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the fixed income as a portfolio component to prepare for slower growth and its investment implications. (3-minute read)

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    How are higher rates impacting private markets?

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig, describes the situation of private markets under the prospect of higher rates, higher inflation and a slower growth outlook with investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    More hawkish Fed raises recession risks

    The message from the committee is clear, the Fed will expeditiously raise interest rates given it is “strongly committed” to tame inflation. (3-mins read)

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    The Rocky Road to Normal: A 2022 Mid-Year Review

    Learn more about the investment outlook for the second half of 2022 and how investors should position themselves through a challenging recovery and rising inflation.

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    Gauging U.S. economic recession risk

    While investors will inevitably be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy this week, one question on the back of everyone’s mind would be the risk of a recession in the U.S. (4-minute read)

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    What should I know about quantitative tightening?

    Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.

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    Rising inflation in Asia and central banks’ response

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses inflation and central bank policy in Asia, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    China stimulus measures: what have been introduced and what is the next key catalyst

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the current China's COVID situation and future policy with its investment implications. (4-minute read)

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    Are we in or headed towards a recession?

    The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.

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    Russia-Ukraine Chart Pack

    The Russia-Ukraine Chart Pack aims to help investors understand the investment implications of the current situation in Russia and Ukraine holistically and why it is important to stay invested

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    Protecting against inflation: Part 3 – Protecting your capital

    Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.

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    Protecting against inflation: Part 2 – The labour market is key

    Today, there are more job openings than there are unemployed workers. Explore what impact a tight labour market could have on inflation in 2022.

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    Why and how to re-think the 60:40 portfolio

    The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.

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    What are President Biden’s policy priorities?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.

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    Should investors worry about the recent rise in Treasury yield?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.

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    What are the implications of China's inclusion in the FTSE WGBI?

    This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell’s decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.

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    What are earnings forecasts telling us about the recovery?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.

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    Is the U.S. dollar weakness here to stay? What should investors do?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.

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    Could a second wave of outbreak derail economic recovery?

    A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.

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    China’s 2Q GDP and June economic data improve on post-COVID rebound

    This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the rebound in Chinese economic activity and its implications for investors.

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    Why should investors take a look at the Chinese fixed income market?

    A consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic is that developed market central banks have pushed policy rates to zero, while engaging in asset purchases to keep bond yields low.

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    Does re-opening mean re-orienting equities?

    This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the improving market sentiment and the outlook on equities.

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    What are the arguments for investors to stay invested in long-dated Treasuries?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.

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    What can we expect from the National People’s Congress?

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.

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    What are some of the long-term structural changes from the COVID-19 pandemic?

    This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an analysis of the potential long-term investment implications from COVID-19.

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    Does a slowdown in new infections mean the worst is over?

    Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control. 

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    Chinese GDP in Recession amid Virus Outbreak

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discussed the performance and outlook of Chinese economy, policies amid the global pandemic and implication for investors.

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    How vulnerable are emerging markets?

    Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.

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    Can oil prices recover if there is a deal between OPEC and Russia?

    Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia

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    China set to advance stimulus efforts

    As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.

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    A COVID-driven spike in claims

    Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.

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    The COVID-19 Relief Bill-Holding the Economy in Suspended Animation

    This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.

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    What is the Fed doing and what does it mean for fixed income?

    The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.

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    The Fed’s aggressive actions to restore market stability

    In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.

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    Will the Fed’s shock and awe work?

    The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

    Read more

    What does the latest oil price collapse mean for investors?

    It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.

    Read more

    How low can U.S. Treasury yields go?

    Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.

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    Equity markets fall into correction

    This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.

    Read more

    Could the COVID-19 outbreak derail Asian economic growth?

    The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.

    Read more

    What happens if the Fed tries to normalize its balance sheet again?

    The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020

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    Could we see more monetary easing by Asian central banks? 

    The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.

    Read more

    What can the Chinese authorities do to protect growth from the outbreak?

    China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.

    Read more

    Can China sustain its strong economic momentum?

    This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.

    Read more

    What are the implications of rising corporate bond defaults in China?

    This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on capital markets following a rise in Chinese bond defaults.

    Read more

    Is the U.S.-China trade war over?

    Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.

    Read more

    Should investors still worry about US-China trade?

    The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.

    Read more
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