Week in review
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 57k, unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in June
- Japan Tankan survey rose to 22 for large manufacturers in Q2
- Korea exports rose 70.9% y/y, inflation rose to 3.2% y/y in June
Week ahead
- U.S. June FOMC meeting minutes
- China June inflation rate
- Japan May wage growth
Thought of the week
Last week’s labour market report was softer than expected. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57k in June, stalling three consecutive months of solid gains. The weakness was compounded by a sizeable 74k downward revision to the prior two months, which led to a net negative change on payrolls data. That said, markets reacted only modestly, with 2026-end OIS rates declining by 6bp. Several factors likely explain the muted response. June payrolls have historically been prone to seasonal volatility, and this year’s data may have been further distorted by World Cup-related hiring patterns, with leisure and hospitality rising in May before contracting in June. Markets may therefore prefer to await subsequent revisions before fully discounting this preliminary print. Furthermore, the sectoral breadth of payroll gains remains constructive, with the 3-month diffusion index at 6%-pts above neutral in June. Overall, underlying dynamics appear more resilient than headline miss suggests, reflecting that the U.S. labour market remains acutely balanced.
Net changes to U.S. nonfarm payrolls
Thousands

Source: FactSet, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data reflect most recently available as of 06/07/2026.
Market data

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