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The latest data suggests there is potential for China’s consumers and businesses to support a broader economic recovery, as long as the right policies are in place.
China’s economy grew 5.4% in real terms in the final three months of 2024, according to the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, marking a notable improvement compared to earlier quarters. The stronger fourth-quarter growth data enabled China to achieve its annual growth target of 5% in 20241. In addition, the GDP deflator turned positive, marking the end of a six-quarter streak of deflation.
The stronger GDP growth was powered by a recovery in both domestic and external demand, which marked a contrast to the strong supply and weakening demand that had been seen in previous quarters. Domestically, momentum remained strong in household appliance sales, boosted by the introduction of subsidies from local governments since September. Meanwhile, negative growth trends in the automobile sector reversed in 4Q 2024 thanks to fiscal incentives. As a result, the total retail sales growth rebounded in December.
Fixed asset investment also remained resilient, primarily supported by investment in manufacturing sectors. Thanks to subsidies for industrial equipment upgrades, investment in equipment and tools grew in 2024, meanwhile, infrastructure investment increased in 4Q 2024, mainly driven by railway, water and electricity sectors.
Externally, exports accelerated in December, likely due to front-loading before potential tariff hikes by the US. Besides consumer goods, exports of intermediate and capital goods also boomed as manufacturers diversified their supply chains to mitigate tariff risks.
On the supply side, industrial production remained resilient. The booming export of electric vehicles (EVs), equipment and green technology products may have driven stronger domestic production. That said, concerns about overcapacity persist, and higher trade barriers in the US and Europe could have negative impacts in 2025.
Despite the recovery in economic activity, confidence remains a major challenge. In the real estate sector, investment activity continued to decelerate in December, which remained a major drag for aggregate fixed asset investment. There was also evidence of weakness in corporate credit, demonstrating the cautious sentiment among private sectors.
The latest data releases are promising for China’s economic recovery. As the economy has not experienced a deep and prolonged deflationary spiral, there is still potential for consumer and business confidence to be restored with the right policies in place. However, maintaining policy consistency should be crucial for a sustainable recovery. The Chinese stock market response was moderate after the data release, reflecting cautiousness among investors ahead of further policy clarity after the Chinese New Year.
Looking forward, we expect a continuation of modest policy stimulus in 2025, which might help stabilise the economy, while challenges remain in driving a rapid rebound. Given the encouraging results of consumption subsidies, the Chinese government might reevaluate the approach to fiscal stimulus and allocate more resources to support households. Meanwhile, closer coordination between monetary and fiscal policies may be on the cards.
On the fiscal front, a budget deficit of 4% of GDP might be set at the National People's Congress annual session in early March2. An important question beyond the total scale of fiscal spending is how to allocate the burdens between central and local governments, as the latter is facing unprecedented challenges of declining fiscal revenue and mounting debts. If the central government could issue more bonds to alleviate local debt pressures, the sentiment might become more optimistic.
On the monetary front, the People’s Bank of China is expected to cut its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy rates after the Chinese New Year holiday. Since 2023, the central bank has faced the challenge of low confidence and demand for credit from private sectors and households, which dragged credit growth despite the easing measures. Under such circumstances, government financing might continue to play a key role in supporting credit growth.
The wild card is Trump's tariff policy and China's response. Given the conflicts in Trump's policy targets for tariff, immigration and domestic inflation, it might be unrealistic to immediately enforce the proposed 60% tariff on Chinese exports3. It is also impractical for China to take a tit-for-tat strategy given its current economic challenges. Therefore, we are seeing some positive signals in the interactions between China and the Trump administration. If China responds to tariff threats by further opening its market and strengthening its economic ties with other major economies, there should be positive effects for growth and investor confidence.
After the market rally caused by monetary policy measures on 24 September, Chinese stock valuations have hovered around the long-term historical averages (Exhibit 1) for three months. On one hand, this reflects that investor sentiment has shifted from being extremely cautious to relatively neutral. On the other hand, investor confidence may gradually turn negative again due to prolonged policy inactivity. In fact, the better-than-expected economic readings even raised concerns that future policy rollout might be delayed, or the scale might be reduced.
Valuation of CSI 300 index
Forward price-to-earnings, based on earnings consensus in next 12 months
Source: Bloomberg, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
Data reflect most recently available as of December 31, 2024.
Against this backdrop, an allocation to the Chinese stock market might be biased to the defensive side in the short-term, especially high dividend stocks. When uncertainties remain, the relatively solid fundamentals of high dividend stocks could offer some protection in the event of volatility.
That said, opportunities might be emerging for active investment in selected sectors with strong policy support and rebalanced supply-demand conditions. Global technological trend in artificial intelligence and automation might also become catalysts for stock prices. Beneficiaries might include sector leaders in robotics, semiconductors, consumer electronics, autonomous driving and related areas.
This is a marketing communication. The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are, unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all inclusive and may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. The value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance and yield are not a reliable indicator of current and future results. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply with our legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our EMEA Privacy Policy www.jpmorgan.com/emea-privacy-policy. This communication is issued in Europe (excluding UK) by JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) S.à r.l., 6 route de Trèves, L-2633 Senningerberg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, R.C.S. Luxembourg B27900, corporate capital EUR 10.000.000. This communication is issued in the UK by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No. 01161446. Registered address: 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.
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