The Weekly Brief

Week of 24 March 2025

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Thought of the week

On 26 March the UK government will deliver its Spring Statement. Having left limited headroom to meet its fiscal rules at the Autumn Budget, the recent move higher in gilt yields and a weaker UK growth outlook are now forecast to have wiped this headroom out. The chancellor must strike a balance between maintaining market credibility by sticking to her ‘non-negotiable’ fiscal rules, while simultaneously not damaging the growth outlook further. The government appears to be prioritising spending cuts over tax hikes to help balance the books. While in the short term the government should be able to muddle through, fiscal pressures are unlikely to ease in the long term, with healthcare spending set to climb owing to the UK's ageing population.

The UK's fiscal pressures are unlikely to ease in the long term
UK health spending and demographics, %; health spending is % of GDP
chartOfTheWeekImage

The Week Ahead

Day
DayCountry/regionEventPeriodPrior
MonEuroComposite PMIMar50.2
JapanComposite PMIMar52.0
UKComposite PMIMar50.5
USComposite PMIMar51.6
WedUKHeadine CPI (y/y)Feb3.0%
UKCore CPI (y/y)Feb3.7%
FriUKRetail sales (m/m)Feb1.0%
USCore PCE (y/y)Feb2.6%
USPersonal income (m/m)Feb0.9%
USPersonal spending (m/m)Feb-0.2%

Market Statistics

Equities
EquitiesChange (%)
EquitiesWeek agoYTDYear ago
MSCI Europe0.49.310.1
DAX-0.415.025.9
CAC 400.29.11.3
IBEX2.715.728.4
FTSE MIB1.014.619.9
FTSE 1000.26.813.6
S&P 5000.5-3.39.6
TOPIX3.30.72.6
MSCI EM1.15.314.6
MSCI China-1.717.941.4
MSCI Brazil2.29.92.3
MSCI AC World0.8-0.59.9
Energy3.26.83.7
Materials-0.15.1-1.6
Industrials0.72.98.1
Cons discr.0.2-7.16.6
Cons staples0.22.76.6
Healthcare1.15.31.6
Financials1.95.222.5
Technology0.4-7.98.2
Comm serv.0.1-0.219.1
Utilities0.84.419.7
Value1.04.210.9
Growth0.6-4.79.0
Bond spreads
Bond spreadsLevelChange (bps)
Bond spreads21/03Week agoYTDYear ago
Global IG93-24-6
EMBIG (USD)295-5010
Global High Yld345-221-4
Bond yields (10 yr)
Bond yields (10 yr)LevelChange (bps)
Bond yields (10 yr)21/03Week agoYTDYear ago
UK4.7141471
Germany2.77-114137
USA4.25-7-32-2
Japan1.5204378
Commodities
CommoditiesLevelChange (%)
Commodities21/03Week agoYTDYear ago
Brent $/bbl721.6-3.5-15.7
Gold $/oz30150.914.838.5
Currency
CurrencyLevel
Currency21/03Week agoYTDYear ago
$ per €1.081.091.041.09
£ per €0.840.840.830.86
$ per £1.291.291.251.27
¥ per €161161163165
¥ per $149149157152
CHF per €0.950.960.940.98
Volatility (%)
Volatility (%)Level
Volatility (%)21/03Week agoStart of yearYear ago
VIX19221713
Macro
MacroGDP %†CPI %
Eurozone0.92.3
UK0.43.0
US2.32.8
Japan2.23.7
China6.6-0.7
Valuation
ValuationForward P/E
MSCI Europe14.2
FTSE 10011.9
S&P 50020.5
MSCI EM12.3
MSCI World18.5

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Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of 21/03/2025 or most recently available.

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Note: All index returns are total returns in local currency. *Term = index duration. †GDP q/q seasonally adjusted annual rate.