2024 is a big year for national elections, with 40 nations scheduled to go to the polls. This includes four of the world’s five most populous countries, and in total elections are set to cover over 40% of both the world’s population and GDP.
Of the elections that could have global market implications, Taiwan’s presidential elections will be the first to come into focus in January. The successful candidate’s stance towards China will be the key element for investors to watch. India goes to the polls in April where Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be pushing to secure a third term. European Union parliamentary elections will take place over the summer, ahead of the US presidential election that will take place in November. In the UK, the election date is currently unknown but an election must be called by 17 December 2024 at the latest.
Russia
The presidential election is scheduled to take place in March 2024.
Ukraine
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Ukraine on 31 March 2024 according to the constitution. Owing to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, however, martial law is in place which could lead to the election being postponed.
EU
Elections for the European Parliament are scheduled to take place on 6-9 June 2024. While the European People’s Party (EPP) is currently expected to retain its position as the largest group in the European parliament, polls suggest the EPP will lose seats relative to 2019.
UK
The UK general election has not yet been scheduled, but must be called before 17 December 2024. The incumbent Conservative Party led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is looking to regain the support of the electorate, following unfavourable ratings in the polls over the past couple of years.
South Africa
The general election next year (date yet to be confirmed) could be the most competitive election in South Africa's post-apartheid history. After three decades in power, the African National Congress (ANC) is looking to maintain its majority, at a time when the country is facing a number of economic and social challenges.
Mexico
A general election is scheduled to be held on 2 June 2024. The incumbent president Andrés Manuel López Obrador is ineligible to run for re-election. Four other candidates have emerged as potential replacements.
USA
The US presidential election is scheduled for 5 November 2024. If Biden and Trump go head-to-head, this would mark the first presidential rematch since 1956. The outcome of the election will impact global affairs given the differing stance between Republican and Democrats on a number of issues, including the war in Ukraine and climate action.
Pakistan
The general election is due to take place in January against a backdrop of political polarisation and a challenging economic environment.
Taiwan
Presidential elections are due to take place on 13 January. We will be watching to see if Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s vice-president and nominee for the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins. Ching-te is more hawkish on China than other candidates.
Indonesia
Indonesia will hold the world’s largest single-day election on 14 February. The current President Joko Widodo is ineligible to run for a third term and three leading contenders have emerged as presidential candidates.
India
The general election is scheduled to take place in April 2024. We will be watching to see if Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can get re-elected for a third five-year term, or if they will be challenged by the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), a coalition of 26 opposition parties.
South Korea
The South Korean legislative election is due to take place on 10 April 2024. The upcoming election will be critical for the policy agenda of President Yoon Suk Yeol, as the ruling People Power Party (PPP) currently holds a minority of seats in the legislature.
The fiscal promises of the successful party are often key to how markets react. For example, tax cuts enacted by President Trump in 2017 fuelled a strong rally in the stock market given the wave of earnings upgrades that followed. In 2024, however, limited fiscal headroom in both the US and the UK will likely make it difficult for any party to deliver further tax cuts or major spending programmes. With interest costs rising and deficits already more than 6% and 5% of GDP in the US and UK respectively, the economic differentiation between right- and left-leaning parties looks set to be smaller than normal.
Exhibit 10: Large deficits limit the prospects of fiscal giveaways
Candidates in both the US and the UK will also be scrutinised for their position on climate change, as well as their foreign policy stance. In particular, this includes the role the US will play in what look to be lengthy conflicts in both Ukraine and the Middle East.
Three factors, however, should temper our inclination to shift portfolio positioning due to political events.
First, predicting the outcome of elections has in recent years been incredibly challenging. Polls provide a less than ideal guide, though it is unclear why; potentially voters are unwilling to reveal more populist leanings to pollsters.
Second, it is by no means a given that campaign promises will make it into law. Over the last three US elections, the successful candidates made a combined 700 campaign promises. But so far less than half of these have made it into law according to data from Politifact, in large part due to Congressional opposition.
Finally, it is worth remembering that over the long run, there is no clear correlation between governing party and market performance. Key events in the economy – such as the bursting of the tech bubble or the financial crisis – tend to have much more of an impact on the average returns under different governments than the governments do themselves.
Exhibit 11: There is little relationship between ruling parties and stock performance
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Market Insights Team
Natasha May
Natasha May is a Global Market Analyst based in London.
Zara Nokes
Zara Nokes is a Global Market Analyst based in London.
Karen Ward
Maria Paola Toschi
Tilmann Galler
Vincent Juvyns
Hugh Gimber
Maximilian McKechnie
Natasha May
Zara Nokes
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