In this week's note, we take a close look at country and regional virus data, and examine the pitfalls of over-extrapolating trends that often reverse. We compare the US and China versions of an "economic lockdown", and unsurprisingly find that they're quite different in terms of magnitude and impact. We conclude with a discussion of convalescent plasma as a COVID-19 treatment, and with charts for investors on why the shape of a recovery is less important than the equity lead time vs the recovery in the real economy.

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