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Global Asset Allocation Views 4Q 2022
Anticipating subtrend growth well into 2023, we remain neutral duration and overweight cash. We underweight equities, expecting meaningful earnings downgrades. We take a neutral stance on credit, with a clear preference for investment grade over high yield.
Global Fixed Income Views 4Q 2022
Recession is our base case scenario, at 50%. We raised the likelihood of Crisis to 15% while lowering Sub Trend Growth to 30% and Above Trend Growth to 5%. We’re using market rallies to reduce our interest rate exposure and credit risk. Our best idea: high quality, short-dated cash flows.