Stay up to date on the latest thoughts from our Currency Management Group
Currency risk is often a secondary consideration when an investor decides to allocate capital overseas. However we believe there are potential benefits of allocating to active currency management.
When reviewing the impact of the rises in commodity prices on currency markets some clear winners and losers emerge.
The Swiss franc has a long history as a store of value. With inflation in the major economies reaching levels not seen in decades, the franc has continued to rise in nominal terms, even if media attention has focused more on gold and crypto.
The Japanese yen has been a popular currency to own during over the past few months by virtue of its negative correlation with equities.
The increased level of interest rate volatility in the currency swap market has received considerable attention from market participants.
Our long standing view on the pound has been that it is not as cheap as widely perceived despite the fall related to Brexit.
A couple of key trends in capital flows suggest the role of euro funding is growing, and we outline the near-term implications for currency markets.
Since the start of 2013, consensus forecasts for the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone have been persistently bullish and persistently wrong.
We believe the US dollar is currently experiencing a rare structural change in valuation level that means it may be far less overvalued than is widely believed.
We believe a well-designed, tailored approach to using ESG factors for active currency management can be a source of added value for clients over the long term.
The probability of US unilateral intervention has risen from a tail scenario to one of low-to-moderate probability.
How the dollar trades following the cut in rates, depends to a large extent on whether the rate cuts are mid cycle or recessionary.