Week in review
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI slowed to 52.4 in February
- China NBS Manufacturing PMI slowed to 49.0 in February
- Japan Consumer Confidence increased to 40.0 in February
Week ahead
- U.S. inflation rate
- China inflation rate, imports and exports
Thought of the week
The oil market continues to serve as the most reliable barometer of Middle East risk, with crude prices reflecting an escalating premium as the conflict intensifies. Brent and WTI have surged to their highest levels since mid-2024, driven by Iranian attacks on regional energy infrastructure, tanker disruptions, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The market is pricing in not just current supply disruptions but the imminent risk of significant production curtailments in Iraq, where storage constraints are expected to force shut-ins within days. Saudi selling prices have risen by $2.50 per barrel for Asian deliveries, reversing a five-year low, signaling tightening supply expectations, while Russian crude has flipped from a steep discount to a $4-5 premium over Brent, underscoring the scramble for alternative barrels. Current price action reflects a structural repricing of risk, with refined product spreads surging and tanker brokers reporting accelerating demand for U.S. cargoes. If oil breaches $100 per barrel amid sustained supply disruptions, economic and market outlook could deteriorate sharply, with heightened inflation and weaker growth becoming more likely.
Crude Oil WTI Future Price and Asia CPI
Year-on-year growth, %

Source: FactSet, IMF, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data reflect most recently available as of 6/3/26.
Market data

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All returns in local currency unless stated otherwise.
Currencies’ return are based on foreign currencies per U.S. dollar. An appreciation of the foreign currency against the U.S. dollar would be positive and a depreciation of the foreign currency against the U.S. dollar would be negative.