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  1. On the Minds of Investors

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On the Minds of Investors

 

Drawing on the depth and breadth of their market and economic expertise, our global macro strategists offer insight into today's big investment themes to enable more confident portfolio decisions.

On the Minds of Investors tackles the big questions we hear in our conversations with clients – it’s our latest thinking on the issues that matter to you.


LATEST COMMENTARY

We bring you the latest Market Insights from our teams around the world. 

AMERICAS APAC EMEA
AMERICAS

AMERICAS Market Insights

APAC

APAC Market Insights

Unpacking the OBBBA’s impact on the U.S. economy, fiscal health and more

This paper discusses the potential impact of the OBBBA on the U.S. economy, its fiscal position and debt levels, and the investment implications.

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What could a higher-for-longer interest rate policy mean for real estate?

This paper discusses the opportunity in real estate on the back of higher-for-longer interest rates creating dislocation and supply constraints.

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Should portfolios hedge the U.S. dollar weakness?

This paper discusses the need for currency hedging on the back of U.S. economic slowdown and policy directions pressuring the USD downwards.

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What are the economic and market implications of the Israel-Iran conflict?

This paper discusses the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, and the implications on oil prices and the global economy.

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How is AI being adopted by businesses?

This paper discusses the impact of artificial intelligence advancement on businesses, and the investment implications.

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Time to go for gold?

This paper discusses how commodities, especially gold, can be a valuable investment tool for diversification and hedging against global growth risks.

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Trade Turbulence (Part 6): Are we out of the woods yet?

This paper discusses the possibility of the U.S. economy continuing to slow given materially higher tariff levels and lagged effects from earlier escalations, and the investment implications.

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What are the implications of Moody’s downgrade of the U.S.?

This paper discusses the reasons for Moody's downgrade of the U.S., and the implications for markets and investors.

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Navigating shifts: Asian sentiment in the face of uncertainties

This paper discusses the impact of a weaker U.S. economy and supportive monetary policies across Asia on Asian growth, and the investment implications.

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Will private credit’s resilience be tested soon?

This paper discusses the resiliency and flexibility of private credit structures, and the possible risks associated during a challenging economic environment.

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Asia earnings update: How are companies reacting to tariff uncertainty?

This paper, written by Adrian Wong, highlights Asian equities' resilience amid tariff uncertainties, offering diversification with undemanding valuations.

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If the U.S. sneezes this time, will Asia catch a cold?

This paper discusses the reasons why APAC could be more cushioned to withstand an economic downturn in the U.S. this time around, and the investment implications.

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U.S. 1Q25 earnings update: Batten down the hatches

This paper discusses the strong first quarter U.S. earnings data points on the back of tariff uncertainty and a lower U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

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Is the U.S. dollar’s role in global finance challenged?

This paper discusses the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar as a result of both policy and economic reasons, and the investment implications.

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How can investors quickly diversify in times of market volatility?

This paper discusses how investors can diversify their portfolios during market volatility with liquid alternatives, risk management and tactical asset allocation for capital preservation and potential gains.

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A good start, but what’s next? Key takeaways from the China data release

This paper discusses the latest GDP and economic activity numbers in China and the factors that may impact strong growth for the rest of 2025, along with the investment implications.

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Should investors be concerned with the rise in U.S. Treasury yields?

This paper discusses the factors surrounding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, and the investment implications.

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Trade Turbulence (Part 5): Pivoting with a pause in tariffs

This paper discusses the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.

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Potential impacts of the April 2nd tariff announcements

This paper addresses the potential impacts of the universal and reciprocal tariffs announced by the U.S. on 2nd April, and the investment implications.

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A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

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Investing principles: Steering the boat through choppy seas

This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of a diversified portfolio to manage market volatility and capture potential recovery upside.

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Trade Turbulence (Part 4): Ahead of April 2

This paper discusses the tariff proposed and implemented by the Trump administration, and what to expect on April 2nd and the potential impact.

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U.S. Market Correction: What’s next?

This paper discusses the slowdown in growth in the U.S. economy and the possibility of a recession on the back of policy uncertainty, and the investment implications.

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Rethinking equity income as market uncertainties rise

This paper addresses the case for defensive and income seeking strategies on the back of growing uncertainties around government policies, geopolitics and monetary policies.

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One stabilizer, two boosters: Key takeaways from Chinese NPC annual session

This paper discusses the key takeaways from the Chinese NPC annual session, and the investment implications for Chinese and Asian investors based off recent market volatility.

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How can we address market concentration risks?

This paper discusses how investors can manage the concentration risk in the global equity markets, and the investment implications from diversifying across indices, geographies and asset classes.

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Trade Turbulence (Part 3): Potential tariff goals and implications for Asia

This paper discusses the motivation and impact of the proposed U.S. tariffs on its trading partners, and the investment implications.

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Growth drag from policy uncertainty

This paper discusses the impact of higher tariffs and lower immigration on the U.S. economy, and the uncertainty accompanied by the rapid pace of the executive orders initiated by U.S. President Trump.

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Which markets could be most impacted by reciprocal tariffs?

This paper discusses U.S. President Trump's trade and foreign policy approach, and the possible impact of reciprocal tariffs on markets.

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From semis to services: the rally in Chinese soft tech

This paper discusses the upward trend in Chinese equities in 2025 on the back of the recent AI developments, and how more positive macro catalysts can help further sustain this market and investor sentiment.

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Asian equities: A silver lining in the tariff fog

This paper, written by Adrian Wong, discusses the attractiveness of Asian equities on the back of 4Q earnings releases, and the investment implications.

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The evolving tide: the present and future of maritime transport

This paper addresses the case for transport assets as a means for portfolio diversification on the back of broader trade uncertainty and economic volatility.

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India still promising, even after losing momentum

This paper addresses why the Indian market continues to remain a promising investment opportunity in spite of recent downturn in macroeconomic and market performance.

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The investment implications of the U.S. trade tensions

This paper addresses the recent trade tensions caused by the imposition of heavy tariffs by U.S. President Trump on Mexico, Canada and China, and the investment implications.

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Why are developed market government bond yields rising?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the spike in developed market government bond yields in recent weeks on the back of political and economic circumstances, and the investment implications.

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Twists and turns: Chinese data, policy prospects and investment implications

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the China 4Q 2024 GDP results on the back of policy stimulus measures, and the need to maintain policy consistency heading into 2025.

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Reiterating investment principles when it comes to U.S. equities

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses U.S. equity investment, highlighting the importance of fundamentals, and managing portfolio during market fluctuations.

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Trade turbulence (Part 2): Near-term pain, long-term gain for Asia trade

This paper discusses the near-term pains that await Asian economies from the proposed U.S. tariffs, and how Asia can navigate this trade uncertainty from a long-term perspective.

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Asian equities: Seeking alpha amid trade uncertainty

This paper addresses the challenges that lie ahead for Asian equities in 2025 amid trade tensions and a strong U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

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How could policy changes impact alternative investments?

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the potential impact of U.S. government policy changes on alternative assets.

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Trade turbulence (Part 1): Navigating a potential U.S.-China trade war

This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu, addresses the broader impact of potential U.S. tariffs on China, and the investment implications.

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Positives beyond corporate reform

This paper discusses the various drivers apart from corporate reforms that provide positive sentiment to the Japanese equity market, and the investment implications.

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The beneficiaries of a U.S. corporate tax cut

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the impact of a U.S. corporate tax rate cut on corporate earnings, and the investment implications.

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The road ahead: When will U.S. debt be too much?

This paper addresses the current market stability and investor confidence in the U.S. debt situation keeping in mind the long-term risks, and the investment implications.

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U.S. Dollar strength and factors that could sustain the current rally

This paper discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar since September, driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields and President-elect Trump's policy stance, and the investment implications.

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Future Fed Rate Decisions: Anticipating Responses to Fiscal Policy

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%, and the investment implications.

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U.S. earnings amble along

This paper addresses the stabilization of S&P 500 earnings in the U.S. on the back of normalizing in growth and inflation, and the investment implications.

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A dive into Chinese households’ balance sheets

This paper discusses the consumption outlook and the related impact of the policy stimulus in China from the lens of Chinese households' balance sheets and their vulnerabilities.

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China market: Solid policy moves expected after initial valuation recovery

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the stimulus measures adopted by Chinese policy makers in response to deflationary risks, and the need for clearer future plans amid economic uncertainties.

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Where is the U.S. dollar headed against Asian currencies?

This article addresses the U.S. dollar's varied performance against Asian currencies and factors affecting various currencies' strength.

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Embracing Quality: Navigating global rate cut cycles

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of quality fixed income in a diversified portfolio amid diverse economic and monetary policy landscapes.

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What can sustain the latest Chinese equity rally?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the impact of Beijing's coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.

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Beyond the Asian heavyweights: ASEAN equities

This paper addresses the investment opportunities in ASEAN equities on the back of attractive valuations and robust income generation.

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Will lower yields lead to better performance in real estate markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the opportunities for investors in real estate markets on the back of expected decline in interest rates and bond yields.

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Positioning ahead of the Fed

This paper addresses the historical impact of "soft landings" and "hard landings" on asset classes, and how investors can position themselves with Fed rate cuts looming.

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Are Asian central banks looking to cut rates soon?

This paper addresses the flexibility of Asian central banks to cut rates amidst easing inflation and robust recovery in currencies, and the investment implications on Asian equities and fixed income.

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Why hasn’t the South Korean market done better?

This paper addresses the underperformance of the South Korean market despite strong earnings outlook, improving corporate governance and regulatory reforms, and steady macroeconomic outlook.

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China’s drive toward self-sufficiency

This paper addresses how China has strengthened its self sufficiency in automobile and technology sectors, and the investment implications.

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U.S. 2Q24 Earnings: Broadening out

This paper discusses the 2Q24 U.S. earnings season, with the eagerly anticipated broadening out of earnings growth for the companies outside the Magnificent 7, and the investment implications.

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Markets sell-off recap: Navigating choppy waters

This paper discusses the recent market volatility in the U.S. and Asia on the back of the release of the U.S. July jobs report and latest Federal Reserve commentary, and the investment implications.

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The Bank of Japan delivers the second rate hike and provides more detail on quantitative tightening

This paper discusses the BoJ’s decision to hike rates and reduce the pace of its JGB purchases in its latest policy meeting, and the investment implications.

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Can the U.S. small cap rotation continue?

This paper discusses whether the strength of the rotation into U.S. small caps is premature given weak fundamentals.

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Is China improving?

This paper discusses the investment implications of the latest economic data release from China and the policy rate cut by the PBoC.

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Can the Bank of Japan’s policy further support Japanese equities?

This paper discusses how improving economic data can convince the BoJ to normalize monetary policy, and help Japan's earnings growth to outpace the U.S. and Europe in 2024-25.

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Central bankers are not rushing into things

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses why policy easing amid a soft landing backdrop should be positive for both equities and fixed income.

Read more
EMEA

EMEA Market Insights

US tariffs: What to do and what not to do, in light of tariff news

Explore the potential impact of US tariffs on global markets, and learn how to build more resilient portfolios that can protect against varied risks and capitalise on opportunities amid the current economic uncertainty. Updated weekly.

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Implications of Middle East tensions for the global economy and markets

Explore potential oil price scenarios and the economic implications stemming from heightened tensions in the Middle East.

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A new path for the US dollar

Explore the factors behind the US dollar's recent peak valuation, find out why the dollar is expected to decline gradually from here, and discover strategies for managing currency exposures amid evolving economic and trade dynamics.

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Rethinking equity income in volatile markets

Find out how regional diversification and income strategies—from the income available from dividend-paying stocks, or the additional income provided by premiums from covered call options—could help investors maintain a more defensive equity market exposure in the current volatile market environment.

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Lessons to be learned from the recent selloff in US Treasuries

Discover the factors behind the recent rise in US Treasury yields. Learn about structural shifts, market dynamics, and the Fed's role, offering insights into why core government bonds remain a hedge against recession risks over the medium term.

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A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

Read more

The outlook for US equities after a difficult first quarter

Read our latest equity market outlook to learn why the US stock market has had a volatile start to 2025, and to find out what the rest of the year may have in store for equity investors.

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The cost of holding cash in a volatile market | J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Is cash really king? Explore why holding cash may underperform other asset classes and how smarter investment strategies can thrive in a volatile market.

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Understanding the shifting risks of passive investing

Discover the risks of passive investing in today’s shifting economic and political tides, and how they influence portfolio returns.

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How to invest in an age of tariffs and growing trade tensions

Find out how US tariffs may impact markets and learn strategies for investing during rising trade tensions. Explore inflation risks, market dynamics and the potential investment implications

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UK equity market: A value opportunity, not a value trap

Explore the UK equity market's potential for recovery. Learn how shifts in corporate behaviour, supportive policies and an economic upswing can help drive demand for UK stocks.

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What can sustain the latest Chinese equity rally?

This paper addresses the impact of Beijing’s coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.

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Budget choices and challenges facing the new UK chancellor

Explore the fiscal challenges and tough choices facing the UK's new chancellor, Rachel Reeves, as she prepares her first budget.

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Japan is changing – opportunities and risks for equity investors

Japanese equities are in the spotlight, but investors should be mindful of the risks as well as the opportunities

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Understanding small cap valuations

Understand the drivers of small cap valuations and find out why small cap stocks could still offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.

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Sustainability and portfolio returns

Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.

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