Market Insights

Investment Outlook 2025

Pushing the Boundaries

Our Investment Outlook covers all the big issues facing investors, from US economic policy and AI investing, to portfolio diversification, Chinese stimulus and European equity valuations.

Explore now

Explore our most popular Insights

Guide to the Markets

The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

Guide to Alternatives

Get insights on macro topics such as manager dispersion, while also diving into real estate, private credit, private equity and hedge funds and more.

Eye on the Market

Explore Eye on the Market, timely commentary that offers views on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios by Michael Cembalest.

LATEST COMMENTARY

We bring you the latest Market Insights from our teams around the world.

AMERICAS APAC EMEA

AMERICAS

Americas Market Insights

Implications of Middle East tensions for the global economy and markets

Explore potential oil price scenarios and the economic implications stemming from heightened tensions in the Middle East.

Wait and see

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Why is the Federal Reserve confident it can keep rates on hold?

Explore the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the Federal Funds Rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the June FOMC meeting. Understand the economic outlook, inflation, unemployment projections and the implications for investors amidst trade negotiations and fiscal stimulus uncertainties.

What are the economic and market implications of the Israel-Iran conflict?

This paper discusses the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, and the implications on oil prices and the global economy.

Mid-Year Outlook 2025

In this 2025 Mid-Year Outlook, we aim to address key topics/themes that investors need to consider.

How is AI being adopted by businesses?

This paper discusses the impact of artificial intelligence advancement on businesses, and the investment implications.

Who is buying U.S. equities?

Explore the driving forces behind the U.S. equities rally, including retail investors and corporate buybacks, as the S&P 500 overcomes volatility. Understand market valuation, earnings growth and economic uncertainty in the context of tariffs and Federal Reserve policies.

Time to go for gold?

This paper discusses how commodities, especially gold, can be a valuable investment tool for diversification and hedging against global growth risks.

Can emerging markets equities outshine developed markets in 2025?

Explore the potential of emerging market equities in 2025 as they outperform developed markets, driven by solid fundamentals, easing trade tensions and technological innovation. Discover insights on portfolio diversification, currency valuation and the impact of AI adoption on investment strategies.

US tariffs: What to do and what not to do, in light of tariff news

Explore the potential impact of US tariffs on global markets, and learn how to build more resilient portfolios that can protect against varied risks and capitalise on opportunities amid the current economic uncertainty. Updated weekly.

Trade Turbulence (Part 6): Are we out of the woods yet?

This paper discusses the possibility of the U.S. economy continuing to slow given materially higher tariff levels and lagged effects from earlier escalations, and the investment implications.

How can value stocks help “policy-proof” portfolios?

Discover how value stocks can "policy-proof" portfolios amidst market volatility and policy changes. Explore insights on tariffs, reindustrialization and deregulation, and learn how diversified equity exposure strengthens portfolios in dynamic market conditions. Ideal for investors seeking strategies to navigate economic uncertainties and capitalize on market opportunities.

What are the implications of Moody’s downgrade of the United States?

Explore the implications of Moody's recent downgrade of the United States credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. Understand how this shift impacts market volatility, fiscal policy and investor strategies. Discover key takeaways for global diversification and insights into the U.S.'s fiscal challenges. Stay informed with expert analysis on the evolving financial landscape and its effects on investment opportunities.

What are the implications of Moody’s downgrade of the U.S.?

This paper discusses the reasons for Moody's downgrade of the U.S., and the implications for markets and investors.

Navigating shifts: Asian sentiment in the face of uncertainties

This paper discusses the impact of a weaker U.S. economy and supportive monetary policies across Asia on Asian growth, and the investment implications.

What's driving global currency movements?

Against a backdrop of shifting tariffs and the rewriting of trade relationships, global currencies have been in flux. Entering 2024 at a two-year high, the U.S. dollar index has since surrendered over 7% of its value against a basket of major currencies.

Will private credit’s resilience be tested soon?

This paper discusses the resiliency and flexibility of private credit structures, and the possible risks associated during a challenging economic environment.

Asia earnings update: How are companies reacting to tariff uncertainty?

This paper, written by Adrian Wong, highlights Asian equities' resilience amid tariff uncertainties, offering diversification with undemanding valuations.

Is private credit’s resilience about to be tested?

Explore the resilience of private credit as it faces potential economic challenges. Discover how this $1.6 trillion asset class has grown, the risks it faces today and the strategies investors can use to navigate higher interest rates, tariffs and economic uncertainty.

A new path for the US dollar

Explore the factors behind the US dollar's recent peak valuation, find out why the dollar is expected to decline gradually from here, and discover strategies for managing currency exposures amid evolving economic and trade dynamics.

If the U.S. sneezes this time, will Asia catch a cold?

This paper discusses the reasons why APAC could be more cushioned to withstand an economic downturn in the U.S. this time around, and the investment implications.

Why didn’t the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at its May meeting?

Explore the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at its May meeting, despite economic uncertainties and tariff impacts. Understand the implications for future policy adjustments and how investors can navigate the current financial landscape.

Not in a hurry

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

U.S. 1Q25 earnings update: Batten down the hatches

This paper discusses the strong first quarter U.S. earnings data points on the back of tariff uncertainty and a lower U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

1Q25: Batten down the hatches

Investors are grasping at straws as the outlook for tariffs – and therefore the economy and markets – remains decidedly unclear. Economic data is inherently backward-looking, providing little indication of how the economy is absorbing tariff increases on imported goods, which vaulted from an average of 2.3% in 2024, to 12% at the end of March, to approximately 19% today.

Rethinking equity income in volatile markets

Find out how regional diversification and income strategies—from the income available from dividend-paying stocks, or the additional income provided by premiums from covered call options—could help investors maintain a more defensive equity market exposure in the current volatile market environment.

Can international equities help diversify portfolios from U.S. policy uncertainty?

Explore how recent U.S. policy changes are reshaping global investment strategies. Discover the role of international equities as key diversifiers amid economic uncertainty and learn about the shifting dynamics in global equity returns, currency movements and market expectations in 2025.

Is the U.S. dollar’s role in global finance challenged?

This paper discusses the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar as a result of both policy and economic reasons, and the investment implications.

How can investors quickly diversify in times of market volatility?

This paper discusses how investors can diversify their portfolios during market volatility with liquid alternatives, risk management and tactical asset allocation for capital preservation and potential gains.

Lessons to be learned from the recent selloff in US Treasuries

Discover the factors behind the recent rise in US Treasury yields. Learn about structural shifts, market dynamics, and the Fed's role, offering insights into why core government bonds remain a hedge against recession risks over the medium term.

A good start, but what’s next? Key takeaways from the China data release

This paper discusses the latest GDP and economic activity numbers in China and the factors that may impact strong growth for the rest of 2025, along with the investment implications.

How can investors quickly diversify during market volatility?

Explore strategies for investors to diversify portfolios during market volatility with liquid alternatives, risk management and tactical asset allocation for capital preservation and potential gains.

Why are U.S. Treasury yields rising?

Discover the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields influenced by Federal Reserve policy and inflationary trade war effects. Learn about the market dynamics and investment opportunities amidst these changes.

Should investors be concerned with the rise in U.S. Treasury yields?

This paper discusses the factors surrounding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, and the investment implications.

How have other countries responded to the tariff turmoil?

Explore how global markets and countries are responding to recent U.S. tariff announcements, with insights into China's retaliatory measures, the European Union's strategic delays, and Southeast Asia's conciliatory approaches.

Trade Turbulence (Part 5): Pivoting with a pause in tariffs

This paper discusses the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.

How vulnerable is mega-cap tech to tariff turmoil?

Explore the vulnerabilities of mega-cap tech stocks amid rising tariff tensions and global supply chain disruptions. Discover how trade wars and economic shifts are impacting market dynamics, investor strategies, and the future of AI-driven innovation in 2025.

Potential impacts of the April 2nd tariff announcements

This paper addresses the potential impacts of the universal and reciprocal tariffs announced by the U.S. on 2nd April, and the investment implications.

Reciprocal tariffs spark sharp market sell-off and increase recession risks

This paper discusses the major tariff announcements by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.

What are the impacts of the April 2nd tariff announcements?

Discover the effects of President Trump's new tariffs on global trade and investment strategies. Learn about potential economic impacts and how to navigate trade turmoil with diversification and active management.

The quarter in review: what happened in 1Q 2025?

Discover the key market dynamics of 1Q 2025, including tariff uncertainty, trade policies, and economic projections, and their impact on U.S. and international markets, commodities, and investor sentiment.

Industrials: boom or bust?

Explore the industrial sector's outlook post-election, exploring reshoring, energy and M&A impacts, with insights on key opportunities and challenges for investors.

What does a C grade on U.S. infrastructure mean for investors?

Discover investment opportunities from the ASCE's 2025 Report Card, which rates U.S. infrastructure a C grade. Learn how infrastructure investments offer stability, inflation protection and potential in public-private partnerships and energy transitions.

Investing principles: Steering the boat through choppy seas

This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of a diversified portfolio to manage market volatility and capture potential recovery upside.

Trade Turbulence (Part 4): Ahead of April 2

This paper discusses the tariff proposed and implemented by the Trump administration, and what to expect on April 2nd and the potential impact.

The outlook for US equities after a difficult first quarter

Read our latest equity market outlook to learn why the US stock market has had a volatile start to 2025, and to find out what the rest of the year may have in store for equity investors.

Is the Federal Reserve (Fed) concerned about policy uncertainty in Washington?

Explore the Federal Reserve's March 2025 policy decisions, economic outlook, and investment strategies amidst rising uncertainty and stagflation risks.

Separating the inflation signal from the policy noise

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Tariff turmoil or trade truce?

Explore the potential market scenarios in 2025 with Meera Pandit's insightful analysis on tariff turmoil, trade truces, tax cuts, tech tumbles, and inflation spikes. Discover how these scenarios could impact equities, yields, and your investment portfolio. Learn about the importance of diversification and alternative investments in navigating volatile markets.

U.S. Market Correction: What’s next?

This paper discusses the slowdown in growth in the U.S. economy and the possibility of a recession on the back of policy uncertainty, and the investment implications.

Rethinking equity income as market uncertainties rise

This paper addresses the case for defensive and income seeking strategies on the back of growing uncertainties around government policies, geopolitics and monetary policies.

What’s driving Eurozone equity returns this year?

Discover the driving forces behind the impressive 15.1% rise in Eurozone equities in 2025. Explore how fiscal policies, structural changes and key sectors like Defense and Aerospace and Banks are fueling growth. Learn about the impact of geopolitical events, government spending and market dynamics on Eurozone's economic outlook. Stay informed with expert insights and analysis on the sustainability of this market rally.

One stabilizer, two boosters: Key takeaways from Chinese NPC annual session

This paper discusses the key takeaways from the Chinese NPC annual session, and the investment implications for Chinese and Asian investors based off recent market volatility.

What do investors need to know from the February Jobs report?

Explore the February Jobs Report with insights into payroll growth, sector performance, unemployment trends, and wage dynamics. Understand the implications for investors and the Federal Reserve amidst economic uncertainties. Ideal for institutional clients and qualified investors seeking a comprehensive analysis of current labor market conditions.

What are the investment implications of higher tariffs?

Explore the investment implications of recent tariff increases amidst trade turmoil. Discover strategies for navigating economic uncertainty, including asset diversification, quality risk exposure, and active management. Learn how tariffs impact growth, inflation and key industries, and gain insights into effective investing amidst policy changes.

How can we address market concentration risks?

This paper discusses how investors can manage the concentration risk in the global equity markets, and the investment implications from diversifying across indices, geographies and asset classes.

Is the AI Capex Boom signaling “buy” or “diversify”?

Explore the AI Capex Boom as leading U.S. tech companies invest heavily in AI infrastructure, driving economic growth and productivity. Discover the implications for investors and the global economy, and learn how to navigate the evolving AI landscape with a diversified approach.

The cost of holding cash in a volatile market | J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Is cash really king? Explore why holding cash may underperform other asset classes and how smarter investment strategies can thrive in a volatile market.

Will small cap earnings lead the pack?

Explore the potential of small cap earnings in 2025 with Meera Pandit's insightful analysis. Discover why small cap stocks, despite an estimated 39% earnings growth, may face significant revisions and challenges. Learn about historical trends, economic factors, and investment strategies that could impact small, mid, and large cap equities.

Trade Turbulence (Part 3): Potential tariff goals and implications for Asia

This paper discusses the motivation and impact of the proposed U.S. tariffs on its trading partners, and the investment implications.

Is the strong performance in European equities sustainable?

Explore the sustainability of European equities' strong performance in 2025. Gabriela Santos analyzes the factors driving market gains, including cyclical recovery and structural changes, while highlighting potential risks like U.S. tariffs. Discover insights into global equity valuations and the future of international markets.

Growth drag from policy uncertainty

This paper discusses the impact of higher tariffs and lower immigration on the U.S. economy, and the uncertainty accompanied by the rapid pace of the executive orders initiated by U.S. President Trump.

Which markets could be most impacted by reciprocal tariffs?

This paper discusses U.S. President Trump's trade and foreign policy approach, and the possible impact of reciprocal tariffs on markets.

Which countries would be most impacted by reciprocal tariffs?

Explore the potential impacts of President Trump's "Fair and Reciprocal Plan" on global trade, focusing on how reciprocal tariffs could affect the European Union and emerging markets. Understand the complexities of non-tariff barriers and the economic implications for investors and industries. Stay informed with insights on international trade dynamics and market vulnerabilities.

From semis to services: the rally in Chinese soft tech

This paper discusses the upward trend in Chinese equities in 2025 on the back of the recent AI developments, and how more positive macro catalysts can help further sustain this market and investor sentiment.

Asian equities: A silver lining in the tariff fog

This paper, written by Adrian Wong, discusses the attractiveness of Asian equities on the back of 4Q earnings releases, and the investment implications.

Does the January CPI report signal a shift in inflation?

Explore the January CPI report's impact on inflation trends and the Fed's stance on interest rates. Discover insights into core inflation, energy prices, labor market dynamics and tariff effects. Understand how these factors influence inflation expectations and the Fed's cautious approach amid potential trade wars. Stay informed on economic indicators and their implications for future monetary policy.

Understanding the shifting risks of passive investing

Discover the risks of passive investing in today’s shifting economic and political tides, and how they influence portfolio returns.

Can harvesting “tax savings” turn volatility into opportunity?

Discover how savvy investors can turn market volatility into opportunity with active tax management. Learn strategies to harvest tax savings and generate alpha in 2025's unpredictable market landscape.

The evolving tide: the present and future of maritime transport

This paper addresses the case for transport assets as a means for portfolio diversification on the back of broader trade uncertainty and economic volatility.

India still promising, even after losing momentum

This paper addresses why the Indian market continues to remain a promising investment opportunity in spite of recent downturn in macroeconomic and market performance.

4Q24 Earnings: Promising, pending policy

For the past two years, U.S. equities could do no wrong. Since the start of 2023, the S&P 500 has rallied 63%, made 58 new all-time highs with 15% lower volatility than average.

How might China respond to escalating trade tensions with the U.S.?

After a stimulus-fueled rally in 3Q24, Chinese equities have recently stumbled, declining 3.2% since the U.S. election. Domestically, challenges like policy uncertainty and real estate sluggishness persist, while externally, new risks are emerging.

How to invest in an age of tariffs and growing trade tensions

Find out how US tariffs may impact markets and learn strategies for investing during rising trade tensions. Explore inflation risks, market dynamics and the potential investment implications

The investment implications of the U.S. trade tensions

This paper addresses the recent trade tensions caused by the imposition of heavy tariffs by U.S. President Trump on Mexico, Canada and China, and the investment implications.

Why did the Federal Reserve hold rates steady in its first meeting of the year?

Washington has been a hub of excitement for investors in recent weeks. However, the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting provided a welcome change of pace with few surprises.

Patience with a pinch of hawkishness

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

How would tariffs impact Mexico and Canada?

Mexico and Canada took the spotlight this week after President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on its USMCA partners starting February 1st., as well as an investigation into unfair trade practices by China and others.

Why are developed market government bond yields rising?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the spike in developed market government bond yields in recent weeks on the back of political and economic circumstances, and the investment implications.

What is the outlook for 4Q24 earnings season?

High hopes for the U.S. equity market this year are underpinned by expectations of robust corporate profits, and early indications of 4Q24 earnings have not disappointed.

Twists and turns: Chinese data, policy prospects and investment implications

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the China 4Q 2024 GDP results on the back of policy stimulus measures, and the need to maintain policy consistency heading into 2025.

Will the Southern California wildfires impact the current economic expansion?

Natural disasters impose severe hardships on families and communities, and our thoughts are with those affected by the wildfires in Southern California.

Reiterating investment principles when it comes to U.S. equities

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses U.S. equity investment, highlighting the importance of fundamentals, and managing portfolio during market fluctuations.

The year in review: what happened in 2024?

2024 was a busy year. Global economic growth diverged amidst elevated uncertainty; nearly half of the world's population went to the polls, igniting debates around policy; inflation eased across major economies, with policymakers seemingly successful in engineering a "soft landing"; and risk assets performed well, though the dispersion of returns across asset classes widened.

Trade turbulence (Part 2): Near-term pain, long-term gain for Asia trade

This paper discusses the near-term pains that await Asian economies from the proposed U.S. tariffs, and how Asia can navigate this trade uncertainty from a long-term perspective.

Where is the U.S. dollar headed in 2025?

The U.S. dollar has continued to defy gravity, rising 7% in 2024 despite two Fed rate cuts. While the DXY Index peaked in September 2022, the U.S. real broad effective exchange rate (REER), which measures the dollar’s value relative to a broad basket of currencies adjusted for inflation differentials, remains near all-time highs.

How should investors think about tariffs in 2025?

To conclude the year, tariffs have once again become a focal point, with Google searches for the term spiking in November and December.

Why did the Federal Reserve deliver a hawkish cut?

At its final meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the Federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%, cutting rates by a 100 basis points (bps) or 300bps annualized in 2024.

Robust economy and policy uncertainty tilts the Fed hawkish

Asian equities: Seeking alpha amid trade uncertainty

This paper addresses the challenges that lie ahead for Asian equities in 2025 amid trade tensions and a strong U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

What is driving recent productivity growth, and can it last?

As Paul Krugman famously stated in 1990, “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.” By boosting productivity, an economy can enhance its standard of living by producing more with the same or fewer resources. In essence, productivity is a key driver of economic prosperity.

How could policy changes impact alternative investments?

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the potential impact of U.S. government policy changes on alternative assets.

How is the AI building boom fueling opportunities in private energy infrastructure?

Today, investors are trying to understand the “series of tubes” that enable artificial intelligence. Behind every interaction with an AI tool is not only a complex web of digital neural networks, but also a humming physical network of data centers, electricity lines and power plants.

Trade turbulence (Part 1): Navigating a potential U.S.-China trade war

This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu, addresses the broader impact of potential U.S. tariffs on China, and the investment implications.

How might policy changes impact alternative investments?

The alternative investment landscape often evolves gradually. Assets may be priced infrequently and therefore are less sensitive to day-to-day market moves.

Positives beyond corporate reform

This paper discusses the various drivers apart from corporate reforms that provide positive sentiment to the Japanese equity market, and the investment implications.

The beneficiaries of a U.S. corporate tax cut

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the impact of a U.S. corporate tax rate cut on corporate earnings, and the investment implications.

When might the Fed end its quantitative tightening (QT) program?

Former Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen described the first episode of balance sheet drawdown from 2017-2019 to be “like watching paint dry”.

Could higher tariffs reverse the Fed's easing course?

Today’s economic environment differs meaningfully from 2018—while the inflation heatwave is mostly past us, its embers are still alive.

Market Outlook 2025

In our 2025 Market Outlook, we address 9 frequently asked questions by investors in the region and beyond. We hope our insights can help you navigate the road ahead, on the way to your investment objectives.

The road ahead: When will U.S. debt be too much?

This paper addresses the current market stability and investor confidence in the U.S. debt situation keeping in mind the long-term risks, and the investment implications.

Who would be the biggest beneficiaries of a corporate tax cut?

In 2018, the U.S. corporate tax rate was slashed from 35% to 21% when the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) went into effect. On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump proposed a further reduction from 21% to 15%, specifying this would apply to companies that make their products in America.

U.S. Dollar strength and factors that could sustain the current rally

This paper discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar since September, driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields and President-elect Trump's policy stance, and the investment implications.

Future Fed Rate Decisions: Anticipating Responses to Fiscal Policy

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%, and the investment implications.

How will the Fed respond to fiscal policy in future rate decisions?

In its penultimate meeting of 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%.

U.S. earnings amble along

This paper addresses the stabilization of S&P 500 earnings in the U.S. on the back of normalizing in growth and inflation, and the investment implications.

3Q24 Earnings: Ambling along

From COVID stress, to a blowout recovery, to an earnings recession, to prodigious growth from the biggest names in Tech, earnings have been through a lot these past few years. But as growth and inflation normalize, so too should earnings.

Why are yields moving higher?

Since the Fed’s jumbo 50 basis point rate cut in September, U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield have risen by 54bps and 59bps to 4.15% and 4.29%, respectively.

A dive into Chinese households’ balance sheets

This paper discusses the consumption outlook and the related impact of the policy stimulus in China from the lens of Chinese households' balance sheets and their vulnerabilities.

How would the U.S. dollar respond to a Trade War 2.0?

With the U.S. elections just a week away and polls indicating a tight race, investors are closely assessing potential impacts for currency markets.

With the economy so strong, why don’t Americans feel better?

If the U.S. economy were a pop star, it might be peak Taylor Swift. On nearly every major measure of economic health, the economy is in great shape and far ahead of its developed market peers.

Why is housing supply still so low?

Housing inventories remain near record lows, yet builders are not increasing construction volumes enough to sufficiently meet demand. Why aren't builders ramping up activity?

China market: Solid policy moves expected after initial valuation recovery

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the stimulus measures adopted by Chinese policy makers in response to deflationary risks, and the need for clearer future plans amid economic uncertainties.

Have equity flows gone back to China after the stimulus announcement?

The combination of the stimulus announcement plus cheap valuations and underweight positions resulted in a surge in net flows into Chinese equities summing up to $12.7 billion from September 24th to October 14th.

Where are consumers spending today?

The American consumer has been resilient in the face of significant headwinds, helping keep the U.S. economy afloat and increasing the likelihood of a "soft landing". However, while aggregate consumption has remained robust, the way the consumer is spending across categories has changed since the start of 2020.

Where is the U.S. dollar headed against Asian currencies?

This article addresses the U.S. dollar's varied performance against Asian currencies and factors affecting various currencies' strength.

UK equity market: A value opportunity, not a value trap

Explore the UK equity market's potential for recovery. Learn how shifts in corporate behaviour, supportive policies and an economic upswing can help drive demand for UK stocks.

The quarter in review: what happened in 3Q 2024?

After retracing 8.5% by early August, the S&P 500 had just about fully recovered by the end of the month, and subsequently powered to new highs after the Federal Reserve delivered a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut.

Embracing Quality: Navigating global rate cut cycles

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of quality fixed income in a diversified portfolio amid diverse economic and monetary policy landscapes.

What can sustain the latest Chinese equity rally?

This paper addresses the impact of Beijing’s coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.

Will China’s stimulus move the needle this time?

Chinese equities had a spectacular end to September, with the MSCI China up 21% from September 24th to 30th. The catalyst was the announcement of a series of economic stimulus measures focused on the housing market, domestic consumption, and the stock market.

Budget choices and challenges facing the new UK chancellor

Explore the fiscal challenges and tough choices facing the UK's new chancellor, Rachel Reeves, as she prepares her first budget.

What can sustain the latest Chinese equity rally?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the impact of Beijing's coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.

What is behind the rally in utility stocks?

Utilities have traditionally been known for their defensive properties, which makes the combination of robust economic growth, technological excitement and elevated bond yields an unlikely recipe for their outperformance.

What’s the latest in emerging markets?

Emerging market equities sold off along with other markets in early August. However, they have since rebounded 8%, bringing YTD performance to 11%. While China lags due to ongoing economic challenges, recent developments have sparked a small recovery.

Beyond the Asian heavyweights: ASEAN equities

This paper addresses the investment opportunities in ASEAN equities on the back of attractive valuations and robust income generation.

Is the strong-dollar era over?

The relative strength and direction of the U.S. dollar matters: trade balances can fluctuate, multinational corporations can see foreign sales rise or fall and U.S. dollar-denominated investors in international markets can see returns amplified or diminished.

What message did the Federal Reserve deliver with its 50bp rate cut?

In a highly anticipated decision, the FOMC voted to lower the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75%-5.00%, a larger-than-expected move and their first move lower since March 2020.

How is inflation progressing ahead of the first rate cut?

The August CPI report showed further progress in inflation making its way down to 2%, setting the Fed up to begin normalizing monetary policy next week with a quarter point rate cut.

Will lower yields lead to better performance in real estate markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the opportunities for investors in real estate markets on the back of expected decline in interest rates and bond yields.

What’s going on in alternative markets?

Elevated public market valuations, historically low bond yields and positive stock-bond correlation are all challenges facing the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Moving forward, investors may need to rely on alternative asset allocations to enhance return, income, and diversification in their portfolios.

Positioning ahead of the Fed

This paper addresses the historical impact of "soft landings" and "hard landings" on asset classes, and how investors can position themselves with Fed rate cuts looming.

How should investors be positioned ahead of Fed rate cuts?

“The time has come” was a memorable phrase from Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. After a few false dawns this year, Federal Reserve rate cuts are imminent, with the discussion now shifting to how quickly rates will come down.

Are Asian central banks looking to cut rates soon?

This paper addresses the flexibility of Asian central banks to cut rates amidst easing inflation and robust recovery in currencies, and the investment implications on Asian equities and fixed income.

Why hasn’t the South Korean market done better?

This paper addresses the underperformance of the South Korean market despite strong earnings outlook, improving corporate governance and regulatory reforms, and steady macroeconomic outlook.

Is more volatility expected from here?

Markets have largely rebounded from the volatility of the past two weeks. The S&P 500 has recovered 3.0% after a 4.8% decline, U.S. Growth equities have risen 4.3% following a 5.5% drop, and the VIX has settled at 20.7, after spiking to 55.1, its highest level since March 2020.

China’s drive toward self-sufficiency

This paper addresses how China has strengthened its self sufficiency in automobile and technology sectors, and the investment implications.

U.S. 2Q24 Earnings: Broadening out

This paper discusses the 2Q24 U.S. earnings season, with the eagerly anticipated broadening out of earnings growth for the companies outside the Magnificent 7, and the investment implications.

Markets sell-off recap: Navigating choppy waters

This paper discusses the recent market volatility in the U.S. and Asia on the back of the release of the U.S. July jobs report and latest Federal Reserve commentary, and the investment implications.

2Q24 Earnings: Bring on the broadening

Equity markets are defying gravity. From the beginning of 2023 through the first quarter of 2024, despite widespread calls for a recession, the S&P 500 returned 40% with 6% earnings growth.

Will the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates at its next meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%, but hinted rate cuts are on the horizon.

The Bank of Japan delivers the second rate hike and provides more detail on quantitative tightening

This paper discusses the BoJ’s decision to hike rates and reduce the pace of its JGB purchases in its latest policy meeting, and the investment implications.

Can the U.S. small cap rotation continue?

This paper discusses whether the strength of the rotation into U.S. small caps is premature given weak fundamentals.

Is China improving?

This paper discusses the investment implications of the latest economic data release from China and the policy rate cut by the PBoC.

Is now the time to add duration to bond portfolios?

Later this month will mark a year since the last rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Historically, the end of a hiking cycle should have been an opportune time to extend duration by deploying cash into high quality intermediate fixed income securities.

Can the Bank of Japan’s policy further support Japanese equities?

This paper discusses how improving economic data can convince the BoJ to normalize monetary policy, and help Japan's earnings growth to outpace the U.S. and Europe in 2024-25.

What do U.S. investors need to know about the French elections?

While French politics are somewhat unique, the New Popular Front’s victory is the second win for a left-wing party so far this month after a strong defeat of the Conservatives in the UK.

The quarter in review: what happened in 2Q 2024?

Looking to the back half of the year and beyond, lingering geopolitical uncertainty and an upcoming U.S. presidential election, coupled with the divergence in performance across assets, underscores the importance of diversification in a fundamentally uncertain world.

Corporate governance reforms provide a bit of extra push

This paper discusses how corporate governance reforms in Asian markets can enhance earnings outlook, and the investment implications.

What’s “good” about goods equities?

The “Magnificent 7” has massively outperformed the rest of the market, up roughly 30% since the start of the year compared to around 5% for the remaining companies, on AI-related headlines and strong earnings growth.

Is U.S. stock market concentration a warning sign?

This paper addresses the concerns over market concentration in the S&P 500, and the investment implications.

Is stock market concentration a warning sign?

Markets have a tendency to over appreciate the near term and under appreciate the long term. We think AI will lead to all sorts of business transformation and productivity gains in the long term, but recent performance has been driven by significant upgrades in near-term AI demand projections.

How is homeowners’ insurance impacting the macro data?

The average homeowners’ insurance policy cost roughly $1,900 in 2023, up over 20% from the previous year and nearly 50% from before the pandemic.

Japan is changing – opportunities and risks for equity investors

Japanese equities are in the spotlight, but investors should be mindful of the risks as well as the opportunities

Understanding small cap valuations

Understand the drivers of small cap valuations and find out why small cap stocks could still offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.

Sustainability and portfolio returns

Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.

Inflation: A Somewhat Sticky Situation

As we emerge from this pandemic with inflation now rising at its fastest pace since the 1980s, the biggest question for investors is whether some of this inflation will prove “sticky”.

APAC

APAC Market Insights

Wait and see

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

What are the economic and market implications of the Israel-Iran conflict?

This paper discusses the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, and the implications on oil prices and the global economy.

Mid-Year Outlook 2025

In this 2025 Mid-Year Outlook, we aim to address key topics/themes that investors need to consider.

How is AI being adopted by businesses?

This paper discusses the impact of artificial intelligence advancement on businesses, and the investment implications.

Time to go for gold?

This paper discusses how commodities, especially gold, can be a valuable investment tool for diversification and hedging against global growth risks.

Trade Turbulence (Part 6): Are we out of the woods yet?

This paper discusses the possibility of the U.S. economy continuing to slow given materially higher tariff levels and lagged effects from earlier escalations, and the investment implications.

What are the implications of Moody’s downgrade of the U.S.?

This paper discusses the reasons for Moody's downgrade of the U.S., and the implications for markets and investors.

Navigating shifts: Asian sentiment in the face of uncertainties

This paper discusses the impact of a weaker U.S. economy and supportive monetary policies across Asia on Asian growth, and the investment implications.

Will private credit’s resilience be tested soon?

This paper discusses the resiliency and flexibility of private credit structures, and the possible risks associated during a challenging economic environment.

Asia earnings update: How are companies reacting to tariff uncertainty?

This paper, written by Adrian Wong, highlights Asian equities' resilience amid tariff uncertainties, offering diversification with undemanding valuations.

If the U.S. sneezes this time, will Asia catch a cold?

This paper discusses the reasons why APAC could be more cushioned to withstand an economic downturn in the U.S. this time around, and the investment implications.

Not in a hurry

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

U.S. 1Q25 earnings update: Batten down the hatches

This paper discusses the strong first quarter U.S. earnings data points on the back of tariff uncertainty and a lower U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

Is the U.S. dollar’s role in global finance challenged?

This paper discusses the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar as a result of both policy and economic reasons, and the investment implications.

How can investors quickly diversify in times of market volatility?

A good start, but what’s next? Key takeaways from the China data release

This paper discusses the latest GDP and economic activity numbers in China and the factors that may impact strong growth for the rest of 2025, along with the investment implications.

Should investors be concerned with the rise in U.S. Treasury yields?

This paper discusses the factors surrounding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, and the investment implications.

Trade Turbulence (Part 5): Pivoting with a pause in tariffs

This paper discusses the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.

Potential impacts of the April 2nd tariff announcements

This paper addresses the potential impacts of the universal and reciprocal tariffs announced by the U.S. on 2nd April, and the investment implications.

A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

Reciprocal tariffs spark sharp market sell-off and increase recession risks

This paper discusses the major tariff announcements by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.

Investing principles: Steering the boat through choppy seas

This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of a diversified portfolio to manage market volatility and capture potential recovery upside.

Trade Turbulence (Part 4): Ahead of April 2

This paper discusses the tariff proposed and implemented by the Trump administration, and what to expect on April 2nd and the potential impact.

Separating the inflation signal from the policy noise

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

U.S. Market Correction: What’s next?

This paper discusses the slowdown in growth in the U.S. economy and the possibility of a recession on the back of policy uncertainty, and the investment implications.

Rethinking equity income as market uncertainties rise

This paper addresses the case for defensive and income seeking strategies on the back of growing uncertainties around government policies, geopolitics and monetary policies.

One stabilizer, two boosters: Key takeaways from Chinese NPC annual session

This paper discusses the key takeaways from the Chinese NPC annual session, and the investment implications for Chinese and Asian investors based off recent market volatility.

How can we address market concentration risks?

This paper discusses how investors can manage the concentration risk in the global equity markets, and the investment implications from diversifying across indices, geographies and asset classes.

Trade Turbulence (Part 3): Potential tariff goals and implications for Asia

This paper discusses the motivation and impact of the proposed U.S. tariffs on its trading partners, and the investment implications.

Solving for Income

The Solving for Income presentation uses selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.

Solving for Fixed Income

Using selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of fixed income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.

Growth drag from policy uncertainty

Which markets could be most impacted by reciprocal tariffs?

This paper discusses U.S. President Trump's trade and foreign policy approach, and the possible impact of reciprocal tariffs on markets.

From semis to services: the rally in Chinese soft tech

Asian equities: A silver lining in the tariff fog

This paper, written by Adrian Wong, discusses the attractiveness of Asian equities on the back of 4Q earnings releases, and the investment implications.

The evolving tide: the present and future of maritime transport

This paper addresses the case for transport assets as a means for portfolio diversification on the back of broader trade uncertainty and economic volatility.

The Essentials of Sustainable Investing

This paper discusses the importance of sustainable investing for investors, and the latest areas of focus that clients have been asking about, such as AI, help in scouting future growth opportunities, and food security.

India still promising, even after losing momentum

This paper addresses why the Indian market continues to remain a promising investment opportunity in spite of recent downturn in macroeconomic and market performance.

The investment implications of the U.S. trade tensions

This paper addresses the recent trade tensions caused by the imposition of heavy tariffs by U.S. President Trump on Mexico, Canada and China, and the investment implications.

Patience with a pinch of hawkishness

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Why are developed market government bond yields rising?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the spike in developed market government bond yields in recent weeks on the back of political and economic circumstances, and the investment implications.

Twists and turns: Chinese data, policy prospects and investment implications

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the China 4Q 2024 GDP results on the back of policy stimulus measures, and the need to maintain policy consistency heading into 2025.

Reiterating investment principles when it comes to U.S. equities

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses U.S. equity investment, highlighting the importance of fundamentals, and managing portfolio during market fluctuations.

Trade turbulence (Part 2): Near-term pain, long-term gain for Asia trade

This paper discusses the near-term pains that await Asian economies from the proposed U.S. tariffs, and how Asia can navigate this trade uncertainty from a long-term perspective.

Robust economy and policy uncertainty tilts the Fed hawkish

Asian equities: Seeking alpha amid trade uncertainty

This paper addresses the challenges that lie ahead for Asian equities in 2025 amid trade tensions and a strong U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

How could policy changes impact alternative investments?

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the potential impact of U.S. government policy changes on alternative assets.

Trade turbulence (Part 1): Navigating a potential U.S.-China trade war

This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu, addresses the broader impact of potential U.S. tariffs on China, and the investment implications.

Positives beyond corporate reform

This paper discusses the various drivers apart from corporate reforms that provide positive sentiment to the Japanese equity market, and the investment implications.

The beneficiaries of a U.S. corporate tax cut

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the impact of a U.S. corporate tax rate cut on corporate earnings, and the investment implications.

Market Outlook 2025

The road ahead: When will U.S. debt be too much?

This paper addresses the current market stability and investor confidence in the U.S. debt situation keeping in mind the long-term risks, and the investment implications.

U.S. Dollar strength and factors that could sustain the current rally

This paper discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar since September, driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields and President-elect Trump's policy stance, and the investment implications.

Future Fed Rate Decisions: Anticipating Responses to Fiscal Policy

U.S. earnings amble along

This paper addresses the stabilization of S&P 500 earnings in the U.S. on the back of normalizing in growth and inflation, and the investment implications.

A dive into Chinese households’ balance sheets

This paper discusses the consumption outlook and the related impact of the policy stimulus in China from the lens of Chinese households' balance sheets and their vulnerabilities.

China market: Solid policy moves expected after initial valuation recovery

Where is the U.S. dollar headed against Asian currencies?

This article addresses the U.S. dollar's varied performance against Asian currencies and factors affecting various currencies' strength.

Embracing Quality: Navigating global rate cut cycles

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of quality fixed income in a diversified portfolio amid diverse economic and monetary policy landscapes.

What can sustain the latest Chinese equity rally?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the impact of Beijing's coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.

Beyond the Asian heavyweights: ASEAN equities

This paper addresses the investment opportunities in ASEAN equities on the back of attractive valuations and robust income generation.

Policy recalibration kicks off with a 50bp rate cut

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Will lower yields lead to better performance in real estate markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the opportunities for investors in real estate markets on the back of expected decline in interest rates and bond yields.

Positioning ahead of the Fed

This paper addresses the historical impact of "soft landings" and "hard landings" on asset classes, and how investors can position themselves with Fed rate cuts looming.

Are Asian central banks looking to cut rates soon?

This paper addresses the flexibility of Asian central banks to cut rates amidst easing inflation and robust recovery in currencies, and the investment implications on Asian equities and fixed income.

Why hasn’t the South Korean market done better?

This paper addresses the underperformance of the South Korean market despite strong earnings outlook, improving corporate governance and regulatory reforms, and steady macroeconomic outlook.

China’s drive toward self-sufficiency

This paper addresses how China has strengthened its self sufficiency in automobile and technology sectors, and the investment implications.

U.S. 2Q24 Earnings: Broadening out

This paper discusses the 2Q24 U.S. earnings season, with the eagerly anticipated broadening out of earnings growth for the companies outside the Magnificent 7, and the investment implications.

Markets sell-off recap: Navigating choppy waters

This paper discusses the recent market volatility in the U.S. and Asia on the back of the release of the U.S. July jobs report and latest Federal Reserve commentary, and the investment implications.

The Bank of Japan delivers the second rate hike and provides more detail on quantitative tightening

This paper discusses the BoJ’s decision to hike rates and reduce the pace of its JGB purchases in its latest policy meeting, and the investment implications.

Cuts are coming

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Can the U.S. small cap rotation continue?

This paper discusses whether the strength of the rotation into U.S. small caps is premature given weak fundamentals.

Is China improving?

This paper discusses the investment implications of the latest economic data release from China and the policy rate cut by the PBoC.

Can the Bank of Japan’s policy further support Japanese equities?

This paper discusses how improving economic data can convince the BoJ to normalize monetary policy, and help Japan's earnings growth to outpace the U.S. and Europe in 2024-25.

Corporate governance reforms provide a bit of extra push

This paper discusses how corporate governance reforms in Asian markets can enhance earnings outlook, and the investment implications.

Is U.S. stock market concentration a warning sign?

This paper addresses the concerns over market concentration in the S&P 500, and the investment implications.

Global trade: navigating choppy waters

This paper discusses trade tensions and the recent tariff impositions on China, and the investment implications.

Central bankers are not rushing into things

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses why policy easing amid a soft landing backdrop should be positive for both equities and fixed income.

Principles for Successful Long-term Investing

Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.

EMEA

EMEA Market Insights

Implications of Middle East tensions for the global economy and markets

Explore potential oil price scenarios and the economic implications stemming from heightened tensions in the Middle East.

US tariffs: What to do and what not to do, in light of tariff news

A new path for the US dollar

Lessons to be learned from the recent selloff in US Treasuries

A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

The outlook for US equities after a difficult first quarter

Read our latest equity market outlook to learn why the US stock market has had a volatile start to 2025, and to find out what the rest of the year may have in store for equity investors.

The cost of holding cash in a volatile market | J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Is cash really king? Explore why holding cash may underperform other asset classes and how smarter investment strategies can thrive in a volatile market.

Understanding the shifting risks of passive investing

Discover the risks of passive investing in today’s shifting economic and political tides, and how they influence portfolio returns.

How to invest in an age of tariffs and growing trade tensions

Find out how US tariffs may impact markets and learn strategies for investing during rising trade tensions. Explore inflation risks, market dynamics and the potential investment implications

UK equity market: A value opportunity, not a value trap

Explore the UK equity market's potential for recovery. Learn how shifts in corporate behaviour, supportive policies and an economic upswing can help drive demand for UK stocks.

What can sustain the latest Chinese equity rally?

This paper addresses the impact of Beijing’s coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.