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Investment Outlook 2026

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With policy and innovation powering the global economy, investors are on a journey full of promise and potential derailments. Read our Investment Outlook 2026 to discover how diversifying across regions and sectors, and preparing for inflation or asset bubbles can help navigate the twists and turns.

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Key questions shaping the outlook for AI megacaps

Uncover how AI megacaps are tackling innovation, business shifts, and future chip demand in a changing landscape.

Is the low-quality rally sputtering out?

Explore the recent reversal in the low-quality stock rally and discover why fundamentals matter in today’s market. Learn how speculative sectors like AI, crypto and biotech have performed versus quality stocks and get insights on where investors should focus for sustainable returns.

Asian earnings update: Third quarter’s the charm?

This paper discusses the factors surrounding Asian equities' robust 3Q25 earnings results, and the investment strategy ahead.

Are rate cuts helping consumers?

Discover why recent Federal Reserve rate cuts aren’t boosting consumer spending as expected. Explore the impact on holiday shopping, household debt and interest income in our latest market analysis.

What are stablecoins?

This paper discusses the use cases for stablecoins, the key risks surrounding stablecoin transactions, and the investment implications.

Will nuclear power AI data centers?

Can nuclear power solve the energy crisis for AI data centers? Uncover the challenges, investment opportunities and market impact of uranium and small modular reactors in the U.S.

Market Outlook 2026

As we look ahead to 2026, discipline could be the defining principle for investors navigating an increasingly complex and volatile market landscape.

Why Asian bonds now: Capturing value in USD-denominated EM credit

This paper discusses the case for Asian credit on the back of investment-grade corporates showing strong fundamentals and high-yield credit with lower default risk.

3Q25 U.S. earnings update

This paper discusses the impact of the tech sector and AI in driving the 3Q 2025 earnings season in the U.S., and the investment implications.

Energy Infrastructure: AI’s power play

This paper discusses the interplay between energy demand and AI data centers, energy supply and current constraints, and the investment implications.

Will the Fed cut rates again at its December meeting?

Discover the latest insights on the Federal Reserve’s October interest rate cut and what to expect at the December meeting. Learn how the government shutdown, inflation trends and funding market stress could impact future rate decisions.

Dancing in the dark

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

UK Budget 2025: What to Expect from the Chancellor’s Fiscal Plans

Explore how the UK Chancellor must weigh tax increases against spending cuts to resolve a fiscal shortfall.

Could recent defaults signal potential trouble in private credit?

This paper discusses the recent defaults in the auto sector, and the potential implications for private credit.

Path to a high-quality and more balanced growth: What to expect from China’s 15th Five-Year Plan

This paper discusses the key takeaways from the 4th Plenum of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee, and the investment implications.

Do recent defaults signal trouble in private credit?

Discover how recent defaults in the auto sector and leveraged loans are impacting private credit markets. Learn what investors should watch for and how to manage credit risk in today’s evolving landscape.

If policies change, do portfolios need to change too?

Discover how evolving U.S. economic policies, global trends like economic nationalism, fiscal activism and AI adoption are reshaping investment strategies. J.P. Morgan’s latest insights reveal why traditional 60/40 portfolios may fall short and how diversified alternatives can enhance resilience and returns. Learn how to future-proof your portfolio for the next decade with thought leadership from J.P. Morgan.

Do circular AI deals warn of a bubble?

This paper explores how overlapping partnerships among hyperscalers, chipmakers and model developers are reshaping AI markets with robust fundamentals.

What is behind the growth of private equity in sports?

Private equity firms are changing the game in sports. Learn about the rise in minority stakes, booming team valuations and the financial appeal of investing in professional leagues.

Which interest rates will fall as the Fed cuts?

This paper discusses why the yield curve could steepen further with the Federal Reserve cutting rates, and the investment implications.

Takaichi’s LDP election win and the policy implications

This paper discusses the potential policy implications of Sanae Takaichi’s election win amid concerns over fiscal deterioration and rising inflation in Japan.

Which rates will fall as the Fed cuts?

Wondering which rates will drop as the Fed cuts? Explore expert insights on the yield curve, Treasury yields and smart investment strategies for a changing bond market.

Trade turbulence (Part 9): Finding silver linings for ASEAN economies

This paper discusses why ASEAN equities can act as effective diversifiers in investors’ Asian equity portfolios in light of uncertain U.S. trade policies.

What do interest rate cuts mean for alternatives?

Discover how Federal Reserve interest rate cuts impact alternative investments like private equity, venture capital, private credit, real assets and hedge funds. Learn what investors should consider in today’s changing market.

How does a potential U.S. government shutdown impact markets?

This paper discusses the potential impact of a U.S. government shutdown on global markets, and the need for investors to diversify across asset classes.

What could a government shutdown mean for markets?

A potential U.S. government shutdown could shake markets and investor confidence. Read our analysis of potential impacts on stocks, bonds, and economic indicators.

Will low rates lift the private equity market?

This paper discusses how private equity presents a viable investment opportunity on the back of high valuations and concentration in public markets, and lower rates around the corner.

What are the investment implications of the Fed rate cutting cycle?

Fed rate cuts are here—find out which rates are falling, which stocks to watch, and which regions may outperform. Get actionable investment insights for today’s market.

A weak UK economy is not a headwind for UK large caps

Explore how UK large-cap stocks remain a smart portfolio choice, thanks to international revenue streams, high dividend yields, and supportive policy trends.

Cue the cuts

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Are rate cuts justified or a sign of weakening Federal Reserve independence?

Explore the latest Federal Reserve rate cut, its impact on economic growth, inflation and Fed independence. Learn what this means for investors and market trends in 2025.

Chinese equities: AI, anti-involution and globalization at crossroads

This paper discusses the support to Chinese equities from AI developments, anti-involution and globalization.

Is AI already driving U.S. growth?

Discover how artificial intelligence (AI) is driving U.S. economic growth in 2025, with record investments in data centers, tech hardware, and infrastructure. Explore the impact of AI on GDP, business investment, and the future of the American economy.

Where are markets headed from here?

Explore four potential market scenarios—accelerating growth, slow stability, recession, and stagflation—and see how each could influence your portfolio. Find actionable advice for navigating economic uncertainty.

Bringing back the rate cut investment game plan

This paper discusses the potential impact of policy rate cuts on risk assets, like equities and corporate credits.

Is the U.S. equity market in a bubble?

Is the U.S. stock market overheated? Uncover insights on market cap-to-GDP ratios, tech sector influence, and smart investment moves for 2025. Learn how shifting market dynamics and sector concentration could impact your portfolio and discover strategies to manage risk and seize new opportunities.

India: Macro strong but equity market struggles

This paper discusses the downward revision of India's 2025 earnings despite a robust macro environment, and the investment implications.

Who wins big from a weaker U.S. dollar?

Understand the benefits of a declining USD for emerging markets. Explore how EM equities are thriving with improved capital flows and enhanced returns. Get insights into the structural and cyclical factors driving EM growth.

The cost of holding cash in a volatile market

Is cash really king in today's volatile market? Discover why a diversified portfolio might be a smarter investment choice.

Trade Turbulence (Part 8): China trade – resilience amidst adversity

This paper discusses the resilience of China's trade amidst complicated trade dynamics, and the long-term outlook.

Could private equity be the new small cap for growth investors?

This paper discusses the growing importance of the private equity space, and how it can represent superior investment opportunity over small cap stocks.

Is private equity the new small cap for growth investors?

Private equity vs. small cap stocks: Which offers better growth potential? Delve into the evolving investment landscape and discover where growth investors should focus their attention.

How is the Asian market performing in 2Q25 earnings season?

This paper explores the resilience of Asia's earnings growth for 2Q25 on the back of ongoing U.S. trade policy uncertainty and developments in AI, and the possible investment implications.

Where is the U.S. dollar headed in 2025?

Stay informed on the U.S. dollar's trajectory in 2025 with our comprehensive updated analysis. Discover how policy uncertainty, fluctuating growth rates and shifting global capital flows are shaping currency value and influencing investor strategies.

What does July inflation mean for Fed policy?

July CPI inflation report reveals headline and core inflation surprises, impacting Federal Reserve policy. Key factors include tariff-related price pressures, energy prices and core services dynamics. Explore the influence of seasonal components, equity prices and fiscal stimulus on potential interest rate cuts and economic indicators.

Understanding small cap valuations

Understand the drivers of small cap stock valuations and find out why small cap investing could offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.

U.S. 2Q25 earnings update: Batten down the hatches

This paper discusses the investment implications from the latest 2Q25 U.S. earnings update, and the strategies by companies to mitigate risks from tariff uncertainties and the inflation spike.

Trade Turbulence (Part 7): August 1 came and went—what’s next?

This paper addresses the impact of ongoing uncertainties around tariffs on trade, and the investment implications.

US tariffs: What to do and what not to do

Explore the potential impact of US tariffs on global markets, and learn how to build more resilient portfolios that can protect against varied risks and capitalise on opportunities amid the current economic uncertainty. Updated weekly.

The investment implications of weaker labor supply

This paper discusses the Federal Reserve's dilemma on the back of a slowdown in labor demand and supply, and the investment implications.

What’s going on with 2Q25 earnings?

Amid the uncertainty of tariffs, S&P 500 profits for 2Q25 are projected to grow by 5%, driven by tech and financial sectors. AI investments and consumer resilience offer stability, while discretionary spending on simple luxuries remains strong. Market volatility and competing sentiments, from tariff concerns to AI enthusiasm, have led to a rapid recovery. Investors find opportunities in tech and financials, with a focus on value and growth.

Should the Fed cut interest rates in September?

Explore the July FOMC meeting insights where the Federal funds rate remains steady. Discover the reasons behind the dissenting votes, Chair Powell's stance on Fed independence, and the economic outlook amid tariff impacts. Stay informed on potential September rate cuts and market expectations.

Tempering expectations for a September rate cut

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Are securitized assets at risk?

This paper discusses the positioning of securitized assets in portfolios on the back of pick-up in yields above U.S. Treasuries and low correlation to equities.

Where are we going with tariffs?

Discover how August's pivotal tariff deadlines could impact global trade and investment strategies. Explore key dates, including new reciprocal tariffs on major trade partners, U.S.-China negotiations and potential court rulings. Learn how these developments affect market trends, corporate earnings and the importance of diversification and active management. Stay informed on economic resilience and inflation hedging opportunities.

European equities: Is it too late to catch the rally?

This paper discusses the outperformance of European equities compared to the S&P 500 in 2025, and the factors that could further drive portfolio rebalancing away from the U.S.

What’s in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)?

Explore the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and its impact on the economy, tax policy, government spending, and deficits. Discover how the OBBBA's tax cuts, spending changes, and debt ceiling adjustments could influence growth, inflation, and the labor market. Understand the potential effects on corporate profits, social programs, and investment strategies. Stay informed on the latest fiscal policy shifts and market reactions.

Rethinking offshore and onshore equities in today’s China market

This paper discusses the potential for diversification of growth and income opportunities for investors within Chinese equities.

What is a stablecoin?

Uncover the significance of stablecoins in today's financial landscape, offering stability and efficiency in decentralized transactions. Explore the GENIUS Act's role in shaping regulatory frameworks, stablecoins' applications in cross-border payments and blockchain marketplaces, and their impact on U.S. government debt and global finance.

Unpacking the OBBBA’s impact on the U.S. economy, fiscal health and more

This paper discusses the potential impact of the OBBBA on the U.S. economy, its fiscal position and debt levels, and the investment implications.

How can investors capitalize on shifting consumer spending patterns?

Discover how shifting consumer spending patterns are shaping investment opportunities in 2025, with insights into resilient retail sectors and emerging trends like simple luxuries. Learn how high-income consumer behavior and economic factors like inflation are influencing the U.S. economic outlook and stock selection strategies.

What could a higher-for-longer interest rate policy mean for real estate?

This paper discusses the opportunity in real estate on the back of higher-for-longer interest rates creating dislocation and supply constraints.

Should portfolios hedge the U.S. dollar weakness?

This paper discusses the need for currency hedging on the back of U.S. economic slowdown and policy directions pressuring the USD downwards.

Wait and see

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Why is the Federal Reserve confident it can keep rates on hold?

Explore the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the Federal Funds Rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the June FOMC meeting. Understand the economic outlook, inflation, unemployment projections and the implications for investors amidst trade negotiations and fiscal stimulus uncertainties.

What are the economic and market implications of the Israel-Iran conflict?

This paper discusses the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, and the implications on oil prices and the global economy.

How is AI being adopted by businesses?

This paper discusses the impact of artificial intelligence advancement on businesses, and the investment implications.

Who is buying U.S. equities?

Explore the driving forces behind the U.S. equities rally, including retail investors and corporate buybacks, as the S&P 500 overcomes volatility. Understand market valuation, earnings growth and economic uncertainty in the context of tariffs and Federal Reserve policies.

Time to go for gold?

This paper discusses how commodities, especially gold, can be a valuable investment tool for diversification and hedging against global growth risks.

Can emerging markets equities outshine developed markets in 2025?

Explore the potential of emerging market equities in 2025 as they outperform developed markets, driven by solid fundamentals, easing trade tensions and technological innovation. Discover insights on portfolio diversification, currency valuation and the impact of AI adoption on investment strategies.

Trade Turbulence (Part 6): Are we out of the woods yet?

This paper discusses the possibility of the U.S. economy continuing to slow given materially higher tariff levels and lagged effects from earlier escalations, and the investment implications.

How can value stocks help “policy-proof” portfolios?

Discover how value stocks can "policy-proof" portfolios amidst market volatility and policy changes. Explore insights on tariffs, reindustrialization and deregulation, and learn how diversified equity exposure strengthens portfolios in dynamic market conditions. Ideal for investors seeking strategies to navigate economic uncertainties and capitalize on market opportunities.

What are the implications of Moody’s downgrade of the United States?

Explore the implications of Moody's recent downgrade of the United States credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. Understand how this shift impacts market volatility, fiscal policy and investor strategies. Discover key takeaways for global diversification and insights into the U.S.'s fiscal challenges. Stay informed with expert analysis on the evolving financial landscape and its effects on investment opportunities.

What are the implications of Moody’s downgrade of the U.S.?

This paper discusses the reasons for Moody's downgrade of the U.S., and the implications for markets and investors.

Navigating shifts: Asian sentiment in the face of uncertainties

This paper discusses the impact of a weaker U.S. economy and supportive monetary policies across Asia on Asian growth, and the investment implications.

What's driving global currency movements?

Against a backdrop of shifting tariffs and the rewriting of trade relationships, global currencies have been in flux. Entering 2024 at a two-year high, the U.S. dollar index has since surrendered over 7% of its value against a basket of major currencies.

Will private credit’s resilience be tested soon?

This paper discusses the resiliency and flexibility of private credit structures, and the possible risks associated during a challenging economic environment.

Asia earnings update: How are companies reacting to tariff uncertainty?

This paper, written by Adrian Wong, highlights Asian equities' resilience amid tariff uncertainties, offering diversification with undemanding valuations.

Is private credit’s resilience about to be tested?

Explore the resilience of private credit as it faces potential economic challenges. Discover how this $1.6 trillion asset class has grown, the risks it faces today and the strategies investors can use to navigate higher interest rates, tariffs and economic uncertainty.

A new path for the US dollar

Explore the factors behind the US dollar's recent peak valuation, find out why the dollar is expected to decline gradually from here, and discover strategies for managing currency exposures amid evolving economic and trade dynamics.

If the U.S. sneezes this time, will Asia catch a cold?

This paper discusses the reasons why APAC could be more cushioned to withstand an economic downturn in the U.S. this time around, and the investment implications.

Why didn’t the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at its May meeting?

Explore the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at its May meeting, despite economic uncertainties and tariff impacts. Understand the implications for future policy adjustments and how investors can navigate the current financial landscape.

Not in a hurry

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

U.S. 1Q25 earnings update: Batten down the hatches

This paper discusses the strong first quarter U.S. earnings data points on the back of tariff uncertainty and a lower U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

1Q25: Batten down the hatches

Investors are grasping at straws as the outlook for tariffs – and therefore the economy and markets – remains decidedly unclear. Economic data is inherently backward-looking, providing little indication of how the economy is absorbing tariff increases on imported goods, which vaulted from an average of 2.3% in 2024, to 12% at the end of March, to approximately 19% today.

Rethinking equity income in volatile markets

Find out how regional diversification and income strategies—from the income available from dividend-paying stocks, or the additional income provided by premiums from covered call options—could help investors maintain a more defensive equity market exposure in the current volatile market environment.

Can international equities help diversify portfolios from U.S. policy uncertainty?

Explore how recent U.S. policy changes are reshaping global investment strategies. Discover the role of international equities as key diversifiers amid economic uncertainty and learn about the shifting dynamics in global equity returns, currency movements and market expectations in 2025.

Is the U.S. dollar’s role in global finance challenged?

This paper discusses the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar as a result of both policy and economic reasons, and the investment implications.

How can investors quickly diversify in times of market volatility?

This paper discusses how investors can diversify their portfolios during market volatility with liquid alternatives, risk management and tactical asset allocation for capital preservation and potential gains.

A good start, but what’s next? Key takeaways from the China data release

This paper discusses the latest GDP and economic activity numbers in China and the factors that may impact strong growth for the rest of 2025, along with the investment implications.

How can investors quickly diversify during market volatility?

Explore strategies for investors to diversify portfolios during market volatility with liquid alternatives, risk management and tactical asset allocation for capital preservation and potential gains.

Why are U.S. Treasury yields rising?

Discover the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields influenced by Federal Reserve policy and inflationary trade war effects. Learn about the market dynamics and investment opportunities amidst these changes.

Should investors be concerned with the rise in U.S. Treasury yields?

This paper discusses the factors surrounding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, and the investment implications.

How have other countries responded to the tariff turmoil?

Explore how global markets and countries are responding to recent U.S. tariff announcements, with insights into China's retaliatory measures, the European Union's strategic delays, and Southeast Asia's conciliatory approaches.

Trade Turbulence (Part 5): Pivoting with a pause in tariffs

This paper discusses the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.

How vulnerable is mega-cap tech to tariff turmoil?

Explore the vulnerabilities of mega-cap tech stocks amid rising tariff tensions and global supply chain disruptions. Discover how trade wars and economic shifts are impacting market dynamics, investor strategies, and the future of AI-driven innovation in 2025.

Potential impacts of the April 2nd tariff announcements

This paper addresses the potential impacts of the universal and reciprocal tariffs announced by the U.S. on 2nd April, and the investment implications.

Reciprocal tariffs spark sharp market sell-off and increase recession risks

This paper discusses the major tariff announcements by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.

What are the impacts of the April 2nd tariff announcements?

Discover the effects of President Trump's new tariffs on global trade and investment strategies. Learn about potential economic impacts and how to navigate trade turmoil with diversification and active management.

The quarter in review: what happened in 1Q 2025?

Discover the key market dynamics of 1Q 2025, including tariff uncertainty, trade policies, and economic projections, and their impact on U.S. and international markets, commodities, and investor sentiment.

Industrials: boom or bust?

Explore the industrial sector's outlook post-election, exploring reshoring, energy and M&A impacts, with insights on key opportunities and challenges for investors.

What does a C grade on U.S. infrastructure mean for investors?

Discover investment opportunities from the ASCE's 2025 Report Card, which rates U.S. infrastructure a C grade. Learn how infrastructure investments offer stability, inflation protection and potential in public-private partnerships and energy transitions.

Investing principles: Steering the boat through choppy seas

This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of a diversified portfolio to manage market volatility and capture potential recovery upside.

Trade Turbulence (Part 4): Ahead of April 2

This paper discusses the tariff proposed and implemented by the Trump administration, and what to expect on April 2nd and the potential impact.

The outlook for US equities after a difficult first quarter

Read our latest equity market outlook to learn why the US stock market has had a volatile start to 2025, and to find out what the rest of the year may have in store for equity investors.

Is the Federal Reserve (Fed) concerned about policy uncertainty in Washington?

Explore the Federal Reserve's March 2025 policy decisions, economic outlook, and investment strategies amidst rising uncertainty and stagflation risks.

Separating the inflation signal from the policy noise

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Tariff turmoil or trade truce?

Explore the potential market scenarios in 2025 with Meera Pandit's insightful analysis on tariff turmoil, trade truces, tax cuts, tech tumbles, and inflation spikes. Discover how these scenarios could impact equities, yields, and your investment portfolio. Learn about the importance of diversification and alternative investments in navigating volatile markets.

U.S. Market Correction: What’s next?

This paper discusses the slowdown in growth in the U.S. economy and the possibility of a recession on the back of policy uncertainty, and the investment implications.

Rethinking equity income as market uncertainties rise

This paper addresses the case for defensive and income seeking strategies on the back of growing uncertainties around government policies, geopolitics and monetary policies.

What’s driving Eurozone equity returns this year?

Discover the driving forces behind the impressive 15.1% rise in Eurozone equities in 2025. Explore how fiscal policies, structural changes and key sectors like Defense and Aerospace and Banks are fueling growth. Learn about the impact of geopolitical events, government spending and market dynamics on Eurozone's economic outlook. Stay informed with expert insights and analysis on the sustainability of this market rally.

One stabilizer, two boosters: Key takeaways from Chinese NPC annual session

This paper discusses the key takeaways from the Chinese NPC annual session, and the investment implications for Chinese and Asian investors based off recent market volatility.

What do investors need to know from the February Jobs report?

Explore the February Jobs Report with insights into payroll growth, sector performance, unemployment trends, and wage dynamics. Understand the implications for investors and the Federal Reserve amidst economic uncertainties. Ideal for institutional clients and qualified investors seeking a comprehensive analysis of current labor market conditions.

What are the investment implications of higher tariffs?

Explore the investment implications of recent tariff increases amidst trade turmoil. Discover strategies for navigating economic uncertainty, including asset diversification, quality risk exposure, and active management. Learn how tariffs impact growth, inflation and key industries, and gain insights into effective investing amidst policy changes.

How can we address market concentration risks?

This paper discusses how investors can manage the concentration risk in the global equity markets, and the investment implications from diversifying across indices, geographies and asset classes.

Is the AI Capex Boom signaling “buy” or “diversify”?

Explore the AI Capex Boom as leading U.S. tech companies invest heavily in AI infrastructure, driving economic growth and productivity. Discover the implications for investors and the global economy, and learn how to navigate the evolving AI landscape with a diversified approach.

Will small cap earnings lead the pack?

Explore the potential of small cap earnings in 2025 with Meera Pandit's insightful analysis. Discover why small cap stocks, despite an estimated 39% earnings growth, may face significant revisions and challenges. Learn about historical trends, economic factors, and investment strategies that could impact small, mid, and large cap equities.

Trade Turbulence (Part 3): Potential tariff goals and implications for Asia

This paper discusses the motivation and impact of the proposed U.S. tariffs on its trading partners, and the investment implications.

Is the strong performance in European equities sustainable?

Explore the sustainability of European equities' strong performance in 2025. Gabriela Santos analyzes the factors driving market gains, including cyclical recovery and structural changes, while highlighting potential risks like U.S. tariffs. Discover insights into global equity valuations and the future of international markets.

Growth drag from policy uncertainty

This paper discusses the impact of higher tariffs and lower immigration on the U.S. economy, and the uncertainty accompanied by the rapid pace of the executive orders initiated by U.S. President Trump.

Which markets could be most impacted by reciprocal tariffs?

This paper discusses U.S. President Trump's trade and foreign policy approach, and the possible impact of reciprocal tariffs on markets.

Which countries would be most impacted by reciprocal tariffs?

Explore the potential impacts of President Trump's "Fair and Reciprocal Plan" on global trade, focusing on how reciprocal tariffs could affect the European Union and emerging markets. Understand the complexities of non-tariff barriers and the economic implications for investors and industries. Stay informed with insights on international trade dynamics and market vulnerabilities.

From semis to services: the rally in Chinese soft tech

This paper discusses the upward trend in Chinese equities in 2025 on the back of the recent AI developments, and how more positive macro catalysts can help further sustain this market and investor sentiment.

Asian equities: A silver lining in the tariff fog

This paper, written by Adrian Wong, discusses the attractiveness of Asian equities on the back of 4Q earnings releases, and the investment implications.

Does the January CPI report signal a shift in inflation?

Explore the January CPI report's impact on inflation trends and the Fed's stance on interest rates. Discover insights into core inflation, energy prices, labor market dynamics and tariff effects. Understand how these factors influence inflation expectations and the Fed's cautious approach amid potential trade wars. Stay informed on economic indicators and their implications for future monetary policy.

Understanding the shifting risks of passive investing

Discover the risks of passive investing in today’s shifting economic and political tides, and how they influence portfolio returns.

Can harvesting “tax savings” turn volatility into opportunity?

Discover how savvy investors can turn market volatility into opportunity with active tax management. Learn strategies to harvest tax savings and generate alpha in 2025's unpredictable market landscape.

The evolving tide: the present and future of maritime transport

This paper addresses the case for transport assets as a means for portfolio diversification on the back of broader trade uncertainty and economic volatility.

India still promising, even after losing momentum

This paper addresses why the Indian market continues to remain a promising investment opportunity in spite of recent downturn in macroeconomic and market performance.

4Q24 Earnings: Promising, pending policy

For the past two years, U.S. equities could do no wrong. Since the start of 2023, the S&P 500 has rallied 63%, made 58 new all-time highs with 15% lower volatility than average.

How might China respond to escalating trade tensions with the U.S.?

After a stimulus-fueled rally in 3Q24, Chinese equities have recently stumbled, declining 3.2% since the U.S. election. Domestically, challenges like policy uncertainty and real estate sluggishness persist, while externally, new risks are emerging.

How to invest in an age of tariffs and growing trade tensions

Find out how US tariffs may impact markets and learn strategies for investing during rising trade tensions. Explore inflation risks, market dynamics and the potential investment implications

The investment implications of the U.S. trade tensions

This paper addresses the recent trade tensions caused by the imposition of heavy tariffs by U.S. President Trump on Mexico, Canada and China, and the investment implications.

Why did the Federal Reserve hold rates steady in its first meeting of the year?

Washington has been a hub of excitement for investors in recent weeks. However, the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting provided a welcome change of pace with few surprises.

Patience with a pinch of hawkishness

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

How would tariffs impact Mexico and Canada?

Mexico and Canada took the spotlight this week after President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on its USMCA partners starting February 1st., as well as an investigation into unfair trade practices by China and others.

Why are developed market government bond yields rising?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the spike in developed market government bond yields in recent weeks on the back of political and economic circumstances, and the investment implications.

What is the outlook for 4Q24 earnings season?

High hopes for the U.S. equity market this year are underpinned by expectations of robust corporate profits, and early indications of 4Q24 earnings have not disappointed.

Twists and turns: Chinese data, policy prospects and investment implications

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the China 4Q 2024 GDP results on the back of policy stimulus measures, and the need to maintain policy consistency heading into 2025.

Will the Southern California wildfires impact the current economic expansion?

Natural disasters impose severe hardships on families and communities, and our thoughts are with those affected by the wildfires in Southern California.

Reiterating investment principles when it comes to U.S. equities

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses U.S. equity investment, highlighting the importance of fundamentals, and managing portfolio during market fluctuations.

The year in review: what happened in 2024?

2024 was a busy year. Global economic growth diverged amidst elevated uncertainty; nearly half of the world's population went to the polls, igniting debates around policy; inflation eased across major economies, with policymakers seemingly successful in engineering a "soft landing"; and risk assets performed well, though the dispersion of returns across asset classes widened.

Trade turbulence (Part 2): Near-term pain, long-term gain for Asia trade

This paper discusses the near-term pains that await Asian economies from the proposed U.S. tariffs, and how Asia can navigate this trade uncertainty from a long-term perspective.

How should investors think about tariffs in 2025?

To conclude the year, tariffs have once again become a focal point, with Google searches for the term spiking in November and December.

Why did the Federal Reserve deliver a hawkish cut?

At its final meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the Federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%, cutting rates by a 100 basis points (bps) or 300bps annualized in 2024.

Robust economy and policy uncertainty tilts the Fed hawkish

Asian equities: Seeking alpha amid trade uncertainty

This paper addresses the challenges that lie ahead for Asian equities in 2025 amid trade tensions and a strong U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

What is driving recent productivity growth, and can it last?

As Paul Krugman famously stated in 1990, “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.” By boosting productivity, an economy can enhance its standard of living by producing more with the same or fewer resources. In essence, productivity is a key driver of economic prosperity.

How could policy changes impact alternative investments?

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the potential impact of U.S. government policy changes on alternative assets.

How is the AI building boom fueling opportunities in private energy infrastructure?

Today, investors are trying to understand the “series of tubes” that enable artificial intelligence. Behind every interaction with an AI tool is not only a complex web of digital neural networks, but also a humming physical network of data centers, electricity lines and power plants.

Trade turbulence (Part 1): Navigating a potential U.S.-China trade war

This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu, addresses the broader impact of potential U.S. tariffs on China, and the investment implications.

How might policy changes impact alternative investments?

The alternative investment landscape often evolves gradually. Assets may be priced infrequently and therefore are less sensitive to day-to-day market moves.

Japan is changing – opportunities and risks for equity investors

Japanese equities are in the spotlight, but investors should be mindful of the risks as well as the opportunities

Sustainability and portfolio returns

Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.

Inflation: A Somewhat Sticky Situation

As we emerge from this pandemic with inflation now rising at its fastest pace since the 1980s, the biggest question for investors is whether some of this inflation will prove “sticky”.

APAC

APAC Market Insights

Asian earnings update: Third quarter’s the charm?

This paper discusses the factors surrounding Asian equities' robust 3Q25 earnings results, and the investment strategy ahead.

What are stablecoins?

This paper discusses the use cases for stablecoins, the key risks surrounding stablecoin transactions, and the investment implications.

Market Outlook 2026

As we look ahead to 2026, discipline could be the defining principle for investors navigating an increasingly complex and volatile market landscape.

Why Asian bonds now: Capturing value in USD-denominated EM credit

This paper discusses the case for Asian credit on the back of investment-grade corporates showing strong fundamentals and high-yield credit with lower default risk.

3Q25 U.S. earnings update

This paper discusses the impact of the tech sector and AI in driving the 3Q 2025 earnings season in the U.S., and the investment implications.

Energy Infrastructure: AI’s power play

This paper discusses the interplay between energy demand and AI data centers, energy supply and current constraints, and the investment implications.

Dancing in the dark

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Could recent defaults signal potential trouble in private credit?

This paper discusses the recent defaults in the auto sector, and the potential implications for private credit.

Path to a high-quality and more balanced growth: What to expect from China’s 15th Five-Year Plan

This paper discusses the key takeaways from the 4th Plenum of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee, and the investment implications.

Do circular AI deals warn of a bubble?

This paper explores how overlapping partnerships among hyperscalers, chipmakers and model developers are reshaping AI markets with robust fundamentals.

Which interest rates will fall as the Fed cuts?

This paper discusses why the yield curve could steepen further with the Federal Reserve cutting rates, and the investment implications.

Takaichi’s LDP election win and the policy implications

This paper discusses the potential policy implications of Sanae Takaichi’s election win amid concerns over fiscal deterioration and rising inflation in Japan.

Trade turbulence (Part 9): Finding silver linings for ASEAN economies

This paper discusses why ASEAN equities can act as effective diversifiers in investors’ Asian equity portfolios in light of uncertain U.S. trade policies.

How does a potential U.S. government shutdown impact markets?

This paper discusses the potential impact of a U.S. government shutdown on global markets, and the need for investors to diversify across asset classes.

Will low rates lift the private equity market?

This paper discusses how private equity presents a viable investment opportunity on the back of high valuations and concentration in public markets, and lower rates around the corner.

Cue the cuts

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Chinese equities: AI, anti-involution and globalization at crossroads

This paper discusses the support to Chinese equities from AI developments, anti-involution and globalization.

Bringing back the rate cut investment game plan

This paper discusses the potential impact of policy rate cuts on risk assets, like equities and corporate credits.

India: Macro strong but equity market struggles

This paper discusses the downward revision of India's 2025 earnings despite a robust macro environment, and the investment implications.

Trade Turbulence (Part 8): China trade – resilience amidst adversity

This paper discusses the resilience of China's trade amidst complicated trade dynamics, and the long-term outlook.

Could private equity be the new small cap for growth investors?

This paper discusses the growing importance of the private equity space, and how it can represent superior investment opportunity over small cap stocks.

How is the Asian market performing in 2Q25 earnings season?

This paper explores the resilience of Asia's earnings growth for 2Q25 on the back of ongoing U.S. trade policy uncertainty and developments in AI, and the possible investment implications.

U.S. 2Q25 earnings update: Batten down the hatches

This paper discusses the investment implications from the latest 2Q25 U.S. earnings update, and the strategies by companies to mitigate risks from tariff uncertainties and the inflation spike.

Trade Turbulence (Part 7): August 1 came and went—what’s next?

This paper addresses the impact of ongoing uncertainties around tariffs on trade, and the investment implications.

The investment implications of weaker labor supply

This paper discusses the Federal Reserve's dilemma on the back of a slowdown in labor demand and supply, and the investment implications.

Tempering expectations for a September rate cut

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Are securitized assets at risk?

This paper discusses the positioning of securitized assets in portfolios on the back of pick-up in yields above U.S. Treasuries and low correlation to equities.

European equities: Is it too late to catch the rally?

This paper discusses the outperformance of European equities compared to the S&P 500 in 2025, and the factors that could further drive portfolio rebalancing away from the U.S.

Rethinking offshore and onshore equities in today’s China market

This paper discusses the potential for diversification of growth and income opportunities for investors within Chinese equities.

Unpacking the OBBBA’s impact on the U.S. economy, fiscal health and more

This paper discusses the potential impact of the OBBBA on the U.S. economy, its fiscal position and debt levels, and the investment implications.

What could a higher-for-longer interest rate policy mean for real estate?

This paper discusses the opportunity in real estate on the back of higher-for-longer interest rates creating dislocation and supply constraints.

Should portfolios hedge the U.S. dollar weakness?

This paper discusses the need for currency hedging on the back of U.S. economic slowdown and policy directions pressuring the USD downwards.

Wait and see

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

What are the economic and market implications of the Israel-Iran conflict?

This paper discusses the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, and the implications on oil prices and the global economy.

How is AI being adopted by businesses?

This paper discusses the impact of artificial intelligence advancement on businesses, and the investment implications.

Time to go for gold?

This paper discusses how commodities, especially gold, can be a valuable investment tool for diversification and hedging against global growth risks.

Trade Turbulence (Part 6): Are we out of the woods yet?

This paper discusses the possibility of the U.S. economy continuing to slow given materially higher tariff levels and lagged effects from earlier escalations, and the investment implications.

What are the implications of Moody’s downgrade of the U.S.?

This paper discusses the reasons for Moody's downgrade of the U.S., and the implications for markets and investors.

Navigating shifts: Asian sentiment in the face of uncertainties

This paper discusses the impact of a weaker U.S. economy and supportive monetary policies across Asia on Asian growth, and the investment implications.

Will private credit’s resilience be tested soon?

This paper discusses the resiliency and flexibility of private credit structures, and the possible risks associated during a challenging economic environment.

Asia earnings update: How are companies reacting to tariff uncertainty?

This paper, written by Adrian Wong, highlights Asian equities' resilience amid tariff uncertainties, offering diversification with undemanding valuations.

If the U.S. sneezes this time, will Asia catch a cold?

This paper discusses the reasons why APAC could be more cushioned to withstand an economic downturn in the U.S. this time around, and the investment implications.

Not in a hurry

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

U.S. 1Q25 earnings update: Batten down the hatches

This paper discusses the strong first quarter U.S. earnings data points on the back of tariff uncertainty and a lower U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

Is the U.S. dollar’s role in global finance challenged?

This paper discusses the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar as a result of both policy and economic reasons, and the investment implications.

How can investors quickly diversify in times of market volatility?

A good start, but what’s next? Key takeaways from the China data release

This paper discusses the latest GDP and economic activity numbers in China and the factors that may impact strong growth for the rest of 2025, along with the investment implications.

Should investors be concerned with the rise in U.S. Treasury yields?

This paper discusses the factors surrounding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, and the investment implications.

Trade Turbulence (Part 5): Pivoting with a pause in tariffs

This paper discusses the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.

Potential impacts of the April 2nd tariff announcements

This paper addresses the potential impacts of the universal and reciprocal tariffs announced by the U.S. on 2nd April, and the investment implications.

A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

Reciprocal tariffs spark sharp market sell-off and increase recession risks

This paper discusses the major tariff announcements by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.

Investing principles: Steering the boat through choppy seas

This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of a diversified portfolio to manage market volatility and capture potential recovery upside.

Trade Turbulence (Part 4): Ahead of April 2

This paper discusses the tariff proposed and implemented by the Trump administration, and what to expect on April 2nd and the potential impact.

Separating the inflation signal from the policy noise

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

U.S. Market Correction: What’s next?

This paper discusses the slowdown in growth in the U.S. economy and the possibility of a recession on the back of policy uncertainty, and the investment implications.

Rethinking equity income as market uncertainties rise

This paper addresses the case for defensive and income seeking strategies on the back of growing uncertainties around government policies, geopolitics and monetary policies.

One stabilizer, two boosters: Key takeaways from Chinese NPC annual session

This paper discusses the key takeaways from the Chinese NPC annual session, and the investment implications for Chinese and Asian investors based off recent market volatility.

How can we address market concentration risks?

This paper discusses how investors can manage the concentration risk in the global equity markets, and the investment implications from diversifying across indices, geographies and asset classes.

Trade Turbulence (Part 3): Potential tariff goals and implications for Asia

This paper discusses the motivation and impact of the proposed U.S. tariffs on its trading partners, and the investment implications.

Solving for Income

The Solving for Income presentation uses selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.

Solving for Fixed Income

Using selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of fixed income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.

Growth drag from policy uncertainty

Which markets could be most impacted by reciprocal tariffs?

This paper discusses U.S. President Trump's trade and foreign policy approach, and the possible impact of reciprocal tariffs on markets.

From semis to services: the rally in Chinese soft tech

Asian equities: A silver lining in the tariff fog

This paper, written by Adrian Wong, discusses the attractiveness of Asian equities on the back of 4Q earnings releases, and the investment implications.

The evolving tide: the present and future of maritime transport

This paper addresses the case for transport assets as a means for portfolio diversification on the back of broader trade uncertainty and economic volatility.

The Essentials of Sustainable Investing

This paper discusses the importance of sustainable investing for investors, and the latest areas of focus that clients have been asking about, such as AI, help in scouting future growth opportunities, and food security.

India still promising, even after losing momentum

This paper addresses why the Indian market continues to remain a promising investment opportunity in spite of recent downturn in macroeconomic and market performance.

The investment implications of the U.S. trade tensions

This paper addresses the recent trade tensions caused by the imposition of heavy tariffs by U.S. President Trump on Mexico, Canada and China, and the investment implications.

Patience with a pinch of hawkishness

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Why are developed market government bond yields rising?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the spike in developed market government bond yields in recent weeks on the back of political and economic circumstances, and the investment implications.

Twists and turns: Chinese data, policy prospects and investment implications

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the China 4Q 2024 GDP results on the back of policy stimulus measures, and the need to maintain policy consistency heading into 2025.

Reiterating investment principles when it comes to U.S. equities

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses U.S. equity investment, highlighting the importance of fundamentals, and managing portfolio during market fluctuations.

Trade turbulence (Part 2): Near-term pain, long-term gain for Asia trade

This paper discusses the near-term pains that await Asian economies from the proposed U.S. tariffs, and how Asia can navigate this trade uncertainty from a long-term perspective.

Robust economy and policy uncertainty tilts the Fed hawkish

Asian equities: Seeking alpha amid trade uncertainty

This paper addresses the challenges that lie ahead for Asian equities in 2025 amid trade tensions and a strong U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

How could policy changes impact alternative investments?

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the potential impact of U.S. government policy changes on alternative assets.

Trade turbulence (Part 1): Navigating a potential U.S.-China trade war

This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu, addresses the broader impact of potential U.S. tariffs on China, and the investment implications.

Central bankers are not rushing into things

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses why policy easing amid a soft landing backdrop should be positive for both equities and fixed income.

Principles for Successful Long-term Investing

Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.

EMEA

EMEA Market Insights

A weak UK economy is not a headwind for UK large caps

Explore how UK large-cap stocks remain a smart portfolio choice, thanks to international revenue streams, high dividend yields, and supportive policy trends.

The cost of holding cash in a volatile market

Is cash really king in today's volatile market? Discover why a diversified portfolio might be a smarter investment choice.

Understanding small cap valuations

Understand the drivers of small cap stock valuations and find out why small cap investing could offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.

US tariffs: What to do and what not to do

A new path for the US dollar

Rethinking equity income in volatile markets

A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

The outlook for US equities after a difficult first quarter

Read our latest equity market outlook to learn why the US stock market has had a volatile start to 2025, and to find out what the rest of the year may have in store for equity investors.

Understanding the shifting risks of passive investing

Discover the risks of passive investing in today’s shifting economic and political tides, and how they influence portfolio returns.

How to invest in an age of tariffs and growing trade tensions

Find out how US tariffs may impact markets and learn strategies for investing during rising trade tensions. Explore inflation risks, market dynamics and the potential investment implications