French elections 2024: What to expect when France votes for a new National Assembly
Read our latest On the Minds of Investors article to understand what the outcome of the French National Assembly elections could mean for investors.
Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2024
Finding value, avoiding traps
Explore our Mid-Year Investment Outlook to see what we think are the key opportunities and risks for investors over the next 12-18 months.
We bring you the latest Market Insights from our teams around the world.
Read our latest On the Minds of Investors article to understand what the outcome of the French National Assembly elections could mean for investors.
Markets have a tendency to over appreciate the near term and under appreciate the long term. We think AI will lead to all sorts of business transformation and productivity gains in the long term, but recent performance has been driven by significant upgrades in near-term AI demand projections.
The average homeowners’ insurance policy cost roughly $1,900 in 2023, up over 20% from the previous year and nearly 50% from before the pandemic.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, highlights the growing significance and potential risks of private credit markets in enhancing returns and diversification.
In the May CPI report, year-over-year headline inflation cooled to 3.3% from 3.4% - down one decimal, yet the median FOMC rate forecast for 2024 moved higher by half a percent.
MORENA party’s candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, won the Mexican presidential election with a historic margin, receiving 60% of votes. This victory was anticipated, but the scale of left-leaning MORENA's win in Congress was unexpected.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, highlights the divergence in central bank monetary policies and its investment implications.
In our 2024 Mid-Year Outlook, we address 10 frequently asked questions by investors in the region and beyond. We hope our insights can help you navigate the road ahead, on the way to your investment objectives.
For three years, stock and bond returns have been moving in the same direction. When times are good, this is not thought of as a problem; however, when stocks sell off and bonds are not there to catch them, then investors are faced with an important portfolio construction challenge to solve.
We explore what the UK election means for the economy and markets.
The U.S. is the largest equity market in the world, but its weighting in the MSCI AC World Index exceeds its global equity market weighting and its projected contribution to global GDP in 2023.
Japanese equities are in the spotlight, but investors should be mindful of the risks as well as the opportunities
To understand these shifting dynamics and determine how to embrace this growing asset class, investors should consider: What’s driving the growth of private credit and the decline in high yield and, if private credit deserves a strategic allocation in a broader credit portfolio?
Following the pandemic, median home prices surged by double digits until peaking at the end of 2022. While prices are down roughly 12% since then, home affordability still sits at multi-decade lows.
During the first quarter, U.S. equities shrugged off ever-changing expectations for monetary policy with relative ease, climbing 10.6% despite a sharp hawkish repricing in policy expectations.
At its May meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%.
Private equity has been surprisingly resilient throughout the Fed hiking cycle. In 2022, PE only declined by 2%, but is now 3.2% higher than the end of 2021, compared to U.S. small cap stocks, which were 7% lower.
It’s well understood that consumption is the largest contributor to economic growth in the United States accounting for just under 70% of GDP. Therefore, to a large extent, any outlook on the economy hinges on the health of the consumer.
We explore the potential economic and market scenarios stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Well-positioned investors could take advantage of the new era unfolding in healthcare transformation.
2023’s so-called “everything rally” was confusing to many market watchers, given the pessimistic macro outlook at the beginning of last year. Now, a quarter into 2024, the rally has clearly continued.
The S&P 500 notched 24 new all-time highs in Q1, up 10.6%, with 2.7%-points from earnings, 7.4% from multiple expansion, and 0.4% from dividends.
Investors should focus on EM regions and sectors that benefit from structural, as well cyclical, tailwinds.
As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50% at its March meeting.
After a significant pricing reset, private real estate could be on the verge of a rebound due to a few key drivers.
With monetary policy still at the forefront of the macro landscape in 2024, investors are left wondering how the election might influence Fed policymakers.
The S&P 500 has reached a new milestone: crossing 5000. It is up 5.4% year-to-date, compared to the equal weight S&P 500, up just 0.7%.
While recession risks in the US have receded, geopolitical risk, election risk and restrictive monetary policy all threaten the current rally.
As the Year of the Dragon is about to begin in China, investors wonder: Are Chinese equity valuations cheap enough to bring good fortune ahead? What will turn investor sentiment around? Equity valuations already reflect a lot of uncertainty about the short-term and long-term path, suggesting a tactical rebound may be in the cards.
We look at why we think investors should look to diversify their exposure to the magnificent seven US stocks.
At the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year, the FOMC voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%.
Markets achieved a trifecta of good news in 2023: an economy that not only avoided recession but reaccelerated, meaningful progress on disinflation, and the Fed pivot markets had been trying to manifest for over a year.
Much has been said about the “Magnificent 7” stocks that dominated market returns last year, ending 2023 up 107% and accounting for around two-thirds of the S&P 500’s performance.
After an impressive equity rally in 2023 and new all-time highs to start 2024, investors are evaluating their equity allocations, which includes where to position along the market cap spectrum.
International equities are likely to benefit this year from positive structural changes, a weaker dollar, and exciting governance changes.
A spike in oil prices could lead to higher prices at the pump, further disrupting the broad disinflationary trend.
Although investors may be tempted to invest based on who they think will win the election and how certain policies may be implemented, macro forces often dwarf policy agendas when it comes to sector performance.
For investors, should fundamentals remain solid we would expect the Fed to begin gradually reducing rates by the middle of this year and for long-term rates to stabilize at current levels, before grinding lower over the balance of the year.
Many investors wonder if they can tweak their existing exposures to be either more defensive against volatility or more opportunistic if certain sectors face future policy tailwinds.
We cannot predict what theme will dominate the markets in 2024, but we can control how we react to positive and negative surprises by having a measured approach to portfolios.
Understand the drivers of small cap valuations and find out why small cap stocks could still offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.
For investors, large caps may be better insulated from higher rates than small caps, and falling net interest costs can assist decelerating input costs and wages in supporting stabilizing margins.
The big story for U.S. equity markets this year has been the remarkable performance of the largest seven technology stocks or the “magnificent 7.” These handful of stocks account for nearly 100% of S&P 500 YTD returns and are up over 72% this year.
Active stock selection remains of the utmost importance, as investors should look toward attractively priced companies with strong balance sheets and resilient profits.
For markets, disinflation could pose an earnings headwind for certain industries like autos, hotels and airlines while the Fed’s “higher for longer” mantra could instill continued volatility in bond markets.
While many of the traditional sources of diversification have been challenged by market conditions, alternative investments can enhance diversification.
While a reacceleration in growth and/or inflation could prompt another rate hike either in December or early next year, short-term bumps in a downward trending economy likely keep the Fed on hold well into 2024.
Historically, Chinese market recoveries can be fast and furious, highlighting the risk of being too underweight China when pessimism is already elevated.
At the start of the year, investors and economists were confident that 2023 would be a challenging year for the economy, markets and corporate profits. In the event, however, growth has been better than expected, equity markets are higher, and earnings have surprised to the upside.
The secondary market can often relieve liquidity issues for investors in private equity by offering the opportunity to sell existing investments to another buyer.
At first glance, the jump in energy equities may seem like a temporary phenomenon, but a variety of economic factors could support the sector’s performance over the longer-term.
The question for investors, however, is which measure of earnings has the highest correlation with stock market returns.
With two FOMC meetings before year end, investors and policymakers are closely monitoring the totality of incoming data to determine whether the committee will lift rates again or go on an extended pause.
Despite many looming threats to the economy, 3Q23 earnings season should hopefully represent a relative bright spot in the landscape.
As rates have moved higher risk assets have found themselves under pressure, with the S&P 500 down more than 7% from its July 31st high of 4,589. To an extent, this price action has been driven by a shift in investor psychology whereby “good news” is now “bad news.”
It is still a close call on whether the economy will enter a recession or not, but we do believe slow growth is the most likely outcome, while risks for a mild recession remain.
If automobile production decreases, prices for vehicles, particularly used ones, may increase once more, unwinding some of recent disinflation and putting renewed upward pressure on “super-core” CPI.
After well over a year of anxiously anticipating an economic recession, the U.S. economy continues to look sound. However, as we enter the “fall of worry” there are several risks on the horizon this autumn: impacts from the UAW strike, rising oil prices, the resumption of student loan payments, and the potential for a government shutdown.
With the possibility of tighter financial conditions going forward, investors may be well served by looking for any signs that tighter conditions are beginning to weigh on activity.
Over the long run, duration will be an investor’s friend for both asset classes: not only will lower rates push bond prices higher, but a lower opportunity cost of owning equities and easy monetary policy should allow valuations and earnings expectations to move higher.
A likely pause in the US hiking cycle is now approaching. See how the peak in rates has impacted equity and bond markets in the past.
With many parents (and investors!) taking the end of summer to be with their families and go to the beach one last time, kids are not the only ones who need a refresher before they head back to the classroom; in today’s blog, we try to help parents get ready to go “back to school.”
2023 has seen more office conversion activity – while sometimes this can be easier said than done, it does suggest that there is an evolving opportunity in the office space for investors who can deploy additional capital.
India’s smaller share in global manufacturing exports and its lower dependence on the China reopening story helps to explain its strength versus other export-oriented Asian economies’ struggles.
This paper, written by Jordan Jackson, discusses the recent rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the investment implications.
Looking back at the past six U.S. stock market declines greater than 10%, international has not always sold off more. In some instances, it has performed in line or even better.
This combination of resilient growth, better than expected profits and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence has led to a strong rally in U.S. equities so far this year.
The likely cause for declining oil prices is increased U.S. production, which is expected to reach an all-time high in 2023.
While the Fed may need some more convincing over the next two meetings, it seems reasonable to expect this tightening cycle will end this year.
It would not be surprising to see a more notable re-rating in valuations later this year or in early 2024; this, in turn, will create opportunity for both primary and secondary market investors.
Beneath the surface are two market dynamics: the megacap tech stocks, which account for the lion’s share of positive market performance year-to-date, and everything else.
Green bonds are attractive instruments for working towards positive environmental benefits. Find out why demand for green bonds from investors is expected to continue to grow.
As we emerge from this pandemic with inflation now rising at its fastest pace since the 1980s, the biggest question for investors is whether some of this inflation will prove “sticky”.
This paper discusses trade tensions and the recent tariff impositions on China, and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, highlights the growing significance and potential risks of private credit markets in enhancing returns and diversification.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, highlights the divergence in central bank monetary policies and its investment implications.
In our 2024 Mid-Year Outlook, we address 10 frequently asked questions by investors in the region and beyond. We hope our insights can help you navigate the road ahead, on the way to your investment objectives.
This paper discusses the election results in India, and the investment implications of short-term valuation challenges and long-term positive prospects.
This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, discusses why investors should take an active approach towards Asian equities in mitigating currency risks.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly and Jennifer Qiu, discusses investment implications of rising U.S. federal debt and widening deficits.
This paper discusses why U.S. 1Q24 earnings have been better than expected, and broadening profit growth should present opportunities outside of the Magnificent 7.
This paper discusses the broader outlook for inflation and the labor market, following the April jobs report in the U.S.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses the recent surges in gold and copper, and why commodity strategies can help protect portfolios when both stocks and bonds are correcting.
This paper discusses the expected delay in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, and when the current wave of volatility could eventually subside.
This paper addresses the latest Chinese economic data and the factors that may contribute to China markets trending higher.
This paper discusses the relative valuation of European equities, and the factors that could suggest a more constructive outlook for the region's equity market.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, addresses the current performance and outlook of private equity market with subdued exit activity.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses why policy easing amid a soft landing backdrop should be positive for both equities and fixed income.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper addresses why strong and consistent earnings growth, structural reforms and the likelihood of political continuity further enhances India's appeal in spite of rich valuations.
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the key highlights of the Bank of Japan's March monetary policy meeting and what it means for the economy.
This paper discusses the macro factors in emerging markets that can drive a potential market rally once the Fed starts to cut and the U.S. dollar turns.
This paper summarizes the key objectives set out in the government work report at China’s National People’s Congress, which were broadly in line with expectations.
Continued demand for AI technologies from mega-cap companies should benefit Asian exporters that are involved in the regional tech supply chains.
This paper, written by Tai Hui discusses why Japanese equities could remain strong despite the potential tightening in monetary policy.
This paper, written by Meera Pandit and Jennifer Qiu, discusses how quality balance sheets and margins continue to support U.S. large caps in spite of favorable small cap valuations.
While recession risks in the US have receded, geopolitical risk, election risk and restrictive monetary policy all threaten the current rally.
This paper, written by Meera Pandit, Nimish Vyas and Stephanie Aliaga, discusses the 4Q23 U.S. earnings and what it means for the Magnificent 7 and the broader markets.
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the history of monetary easing and our expectations of Fed policy in 2024. (6-minute read)
This paper, written by Raisah Rasid, discusses the expected weakening of the U.S. dollar and the inflation deceleration in Asia, which presents an opportunity in Asia fixed income
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the recent Chinese economic data releases and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for Asia high dividend equities in 2024.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, summarizes the factors that could trigger rate cuts and policy outlook with its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Tilmann Galler and Natasha May, discusses the outlook of small cap stocks and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the outlook of China and policy implications.
This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook of Asia tech and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Meera Pandit, summarizes the potential underlying market and policy implications of 2024 U.S. elections. (3-minute read)
Coming into 2023, the rallying cry from the asset management community was “Bonds are Back! ”. There were several reasonable assumptions behind this call.
This paper, written by Adrian Tong and Jennifer Qiu, summarizes the recent key central banks' decisions and their implication on asset allocation. (3-minute read)
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, highlights the recent performance of Asia high dividend equities and the factors influencing its outlook with investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for Asian assets in the current global yield environment. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Meera Pandit and Nimish Vyas, discusses our projections for the 3Q23 U.S. earnings season and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the factors driving oil prices and the Fed policy outlook.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, summarizes the latest round of central bank meetings and discusses outlook for U.S., UK and European economy with its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper, written by Adrian Tong, highlights the driving forces and outlook of oil, food and metal prices, with their implications on policy and growth. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, addresses the key drivers and outlook of Asian domestic demand with its investment implications.
This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu and Adrian Tong, discusses the risks of corporate caution in the U.S. and the impact on the Asia tech sector.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses China's property market, deflation risk and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Jordan Jackson, discusses the recent rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, Marcella Chow and Jennifer Qiu, discusses the recent China activity data and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Karen Ward and Hugh Gimber, discusses sustainable investing returns performance and ongoing shifts in the landscape.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the state of the U.S. economy and the investment implications on fixed income.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, summarizes the previous highlights and upcoming outlook for central banks' meetings with investment implications.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook for India equities and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Meera Pandit and Nimish Vyas, discusses the recent U.S. equity market performance, earnings outlook and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the inflation outlook for China, policy expectations and the investment implications.
ESG is the use of environmental, social, and governance factors to inform investment decisions.
A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.
Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.
We explore what the UK election means for the economy and markets.
Europe has made structural improvements and we think investors should sit up and take notice.
Understand the drivers of small cap valuations and find out why small cap stocks could still offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.
A likely pause in the US hiking cycle is now approaching. See how the peak in rates has impacted equity and bond markets in the past.
This paper, written by Karen Ward and Hugh Gimber, discusses sustainable investing returns performance and ongoing shifts in the landscape.
Green bonds are attractive instruments for working towards positive environmental benefits. Find out why demand for green bonds from investors is expected to continue to grow.
A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.