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Investment Outlook 2025

Pushing the Boundaries

Our Investment Outlook covers all the big issues facing investors, from US economic policy and AI investing, to portfolio diversification, Chinese stimulus and European equity valuations.

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Americas Market Insights

How should investors think about tariffs in 2025?

To conclude the year, tariffs have once again become a focal point, with Google searches for the term spiking in November and December.

Why did the Federal Reserve deliver a hawkish cut?

At its final meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the Federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%, cutting rates by a 100 basis points (bps) or 300bps annualized in 2024.

Robust economy and policy uncertainty tilts the Fed hawkish

Asian equities: Seeking alpha amid trade uncertainty

This paper addresses the challenges that lie ahead for Asian equities in 2025 amid trade tensions and a strong U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

What is driving recent productivity growth, and can it last?

As Paul Krugman famously stated in 1990, “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.” By boosting productivity, an economy can enhance its standard of living by producing more with the same or fewer resources. In essence, productivity is a key driver of economic prosperity.

How could policy changes impact alternative investments?

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the potential impact of U.S. government policy changes on alternative assets.

How is the AI building boom fueling opportunities in private energy infrastructure?

Today, investors are trying to understand the “series of tubes” that enable artificial intelligence. Behind every interaction with an AI tool is not only a complex web of digital neural networks, but also a humming physical network of data centers, electricity lines and power plants.

Trade turbulence: Navigating a potential U.S.-China trade war

This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu, addresses the broader impact of potential U.S. tariffs on China, and the investment implications.

How might policy changes impact alternative investments?

The alternative investment landscape often evolves gradually. Assets may be priced infrequently and therefore are less sensitive to day-to-day market moves.

Positives beyond corporate reform

This paper discusses the various drivers apart from corporate reforms that provide positive sentiment to the Japanese equity market, and the investment implications.

The beneficiaries of a U.S. corporate tax cut

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the impact of a U.S. corporate tax rate cut on corporate earnings, and the investment implications.

When might the Fed end its quantitative tightening (QT) program?

Former Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen described the first episode of balance sheet drawdown from 2017-2019 to be “like watching paint dry”.

Could higher tariffs reverse the Fed's easing course?

Today’s economic environment differs meaningfully from 2018—while the inflation heatwave is mostly past us, its embers are still alive.

Market Outlook 2025

In our 2025 Market Outlook, we address 9 frequently asked questions by investors in the region and beyond. We hope our insights can help you navigate the road ahead, on the way to your investment objectives.

The road ahead: When will U.S. debt be too much?

This paper addresses the current market stability and investor confidence in the U.S. debt situation keeping in mind the long-term risks, and the investment implications.

Who would be the biggest beneficiaries of a corporate tax cut?

In 2018, the U.S. corporate tax rate was slashed from 35% to 21% when the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) went into effect. On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump proposed a further reduction from 21% to 15%, specifying this would apply to companies that make their products in America.

U.S. Dollar strength and factors that could sustain the current rally

This paper discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar since September, driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields and President-elect Trump's policy stance, and the investment implications.

Future Fed Rate Decisions: Anticipating Responses to Fiscal Policy

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%, and the investment implications.

How will the Fed respond to fiscal policy in future rate decisions?

In its penultimate meeting of 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%.

Potential Republican sweep sends markets higher, but policy uncertainty looms

This paper, written by David Kelly, Gabriela Santos and Stephanie Aliaga, discusses the potential Republican sweep in the U.S. elections, and the investment implications.

U.S. earnings amble along

This paper addresses the stabilization of S&P 500 earnings in the U.S. on the back of normalizing in growth and inflation, and the investment implications.

3Q24 Earnings: Ambling along

From COVID stress, to a blowout recovery, to an earnings recession, to prodigious growth from the biggest names in Tech, earnings have been through a lot these past few years. But as growth and inflation normalize, so too should earnings.

Why are yields moving higher?

Since the Fed’s jumbo 50 basis point rate cut in September, U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield have risen by 54bps and 59bps to 4.15% and 4.29%, respectively.

A dive into Chinese households’ balance sheets

This paper discusses the consumption outlook and the related impact of the policy stimulus in China from the lens of Chinese households' balance sheets and their vulnerabilities.

How would the U.S. dollar respond to a Trade War 2.0?

With the U.S. elections just a week away and polls indicating a tight race, investors are closely assessing potential impacts for currency markets.

European economic recovery: Separating cyclical from structural weakness

Uncover the challenges and opportunities shaping Europe's economic future.

With the economy so strong, why don’t Americans feel better?

If the U.S. economy were a pop star, it might be peak Taylor Swift. On nearly every major measure of economic health, the economy is in great shape and far ahead of its developed market peers.

Why is housing supply still so low?

Housing inventories remain near record lows, yet builders are not increasing construction volumes enough to sufficiently meet demand. Why aren't builders ramping up activity?

China market: Solid policy moves expected after initial valuation recovery

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the stimulus measures adopted by Chinese policy makers in response to deflationary risks, and the need for clearer future plans amid economic uncertainties.

Have equity flows gone back to China after the stimulus announcement?

The combination of the stimulus announcement plus cheap valuations and underweight positions resulted in a surge in net flows into Chinese equities summing up to $12.7 billion from September 24th to October 14th.

Where are consumers spending today?

The American consumer has been resilient in the face of significant headwinds, helping keep the U.S. economy afloat and increasing the likelihood of a "soft landing". However, while aggregate consumption has remained robust, the way the consumer is spending across categories has changed since the start of 2020.

Where is the U.S. dollar headed against Asian currencies?

This article addresses the U.S. dollar's varied performance against Asian currencies and factors affecting various currencies' strength.

UK equity market: A value opportunity, not a value trap

Explore the UK equity market's potential for recovery. Learn how shifts in corporate behaviour, supportive policies and an economic upswing can help drive demand for UK stocks.

The quarter in review: what happened in 3Q 2024?

After retracing 8.5% by early August, the S&P 500 had just about fully recovered by the end of the month, and subsequently powered to new highs after the Federal Reserve delivered a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut.

Embracing Quality: Navigating global rate cut cycles

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of quality fixed income in a diversified portfolio amid diverse economic and monetary policy landscapes.

What can sustain the latest Chinese equity rally?

This paper addresses the impact of Beijing’s coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.

Will China’s stimulus move the needle this time?

Chinese equities had a spectacular end to September, with the MSCI China up 21% from September 24th to 30th. The catalyst was the announcement of a series of economic stimulus measures focused on the housing market, domestic consumption, and the stock market.

Budget choices and challenges facing the new UK chancellor

Explore the fiscal challenges and tough choices facing the UK's new chancellor, Rachel Reeves, as she prepares her first budget.

What can sustain the latest Chinese equity rally?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the impact of Beijing's coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.

What is behind the rally in utility stocks?

Utilities have traditionally been known for their defensive properties, which makes the combination of robust economic growth, technological excitement and elevated bond yields an unlikely recipe for their outperformance.

What’s the latest in emerging markets?

Emerging market equities sold off along with other markets in early August. However, they have since rebounded 8%, bringing YTD performance to 11%. While China lags due to ongoing economic challenges, recent developments have sparked a small recovery.

Beyond the Asian heavyweights: ASEAN equities

This paper addresses the investment opportunities in ASEAN equities on the back of attractive valuations and robust income generation.

Is the strong-dollar era over?

The relative strength and direction of the U.S. dollar matters: trade balances can fluctuate, multinational corporations can see foreign sales rise or fall and U.S. dollar-denominated investors in international markets can see returns amplified or diminished.

What message did the Federal Reserve deliver with its 50bp rate cut?

In a highly anticipated decision, the FOMC voted to lower the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75%-5.00%, a larger-than-expected move and their first move lower since March 2020.

How is inflation progressing ahead of the first rate cut?

The August CPI report showed further progress in inflation making its way down to 2%, setting the Fed up to begin normalizing monetary policy next week with a quarter point rate cut.

Will lower yields lead to better performance in real estate markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the opportunities for investors in real estate markets on the back of expected decline in interest rates and bond yields.

What’s going on in alternative markets?

Elevated public market valuations, historically low bond yields and positive stock-bond correlation are all challenges facing the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Moving forward, investors may need to rely on alternative asset allocations to enhance return, income, and diversification in their portfolios.

The US Labour Market: Cooling, but not collapsing

Understand why the US labour market is cooling and what it means for the economy.

Positioning ahead of the Fed

This paper addresses the historical impact of "soft landings" and "hard landings" on asset classes, and how investors can position themselves with Fed rate cuts looming.

How should investors be positioned ahead of Fed rate cuts?

“The time has come” was a memorable phrase from Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. After a few false dawns this year, Federal Reserve rate cuts are imminent, with the discussion now shifting to how quickly rates will come down.

Are Asian central banks looking to cut rates soon?

This paper addresses the flexibility of Asian central banks to cut rates amidst easing inflation and robust recovery in currencies, and the investment implications on Asian equities and fixed income.

Why hasn’t the South Korean market done better?

This paper addresses the underperformance of the South Korean market despite strong earnings outlook, improving corporate governance and regulatory reforms, and steady macroeconomic outlook.

Does a slowing US economy challenge current earnings forecasts?

Explore our article on whether a slowing US economy challenges expectations for corporate earnings.

Is more volatility expected from here?

Markets have largely rebounded from the volatility of the past two weeks. The S&P 500 has recovered 3.0% after a 4.8% decline, U.S. Growth equities have risen 4.3% following a 5.5% drop, and the VIX has settled at 20.7, after spiking to 55.1, its highest level since March 2020.

China’s drive toward self-sufficiency

This paper addresses how China has strengthened its self sufficiency in automobile and technology sectors, and the investment implications.

U.S. 2Q24 Earnings: Broadening out

This paper discusses the 2Q24 U.S. earnings season, with the eagerly anticipated broadening out of earnings growth for the companies outside the Magnificent 7, and the investment implications.

Markets sell-off recap: Navigating choppy waters

This paper discusses the recent market volatility in the U.S. and Asia on the back of the release of the U.S. July jobs report and latest Federal Reserve commentary, and the investment implications.

2Q24 Earnings: Bring on the broadening

Equity markets are defying gravity. From the beginning of 2023 through the first quarter of 2024, despite widespread calls for a recession, the S&P 500 returned 40% with 6% earnings growth.

Will the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates at its next meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%, but hinted rate cuts are on the horizon.

The Bank of Japan delivers the second rate hike and provides more detail on quantitative tightening

This paper discusses the BoJ’s decision to hike rates and reduce the pace of its JGB purchases in its latest policy meeting, and the investment implications.

Can the U.S. small cap rotation continue?

This paper discusses whether the strength of the rotation into U.S. small caps is premature given weak fundamentals.

Is China improving?

This paper discusses the investment implications of the latest economic data release from China and the policy rate cut by the PBoC.

Is now the time to add duration to bond portfolios?

Later this month will mark a year since the last rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Historically, the end of a hiking cycle should have been an opportune time to extend duration by deploying cash into high quality intermediate fixed income securities.

Can the Bank of Japan’s policy further support Japanese equities?

This paper discusses how improving economic data can convince the BoJ to normalize monetary policy, and help Japan's earnings growth to outpace the U.S. and Europe in 2024-25.

What do U.S. investors need to know about the French elections?

While French politics are somewhat unique, the New Popular Front’s victory is the second win for a left-wing party so far this month after a strong defeat of the Conservatives in the UK.

The quarter in review: what happened in 2Q 2024?

Looking to the back half of the year and beyond, lingering geopolitical uncertainty and an upcoming U.S. presidential election, coupled with the divergence in performance across assets, underscores the importance of diversification in a fundamentally uncertain world.

Corporate governance reforms provide a bit of extra push

This paper discusses how corporate governance reforms in Asian markets can enhance earnings outlook, and the investment implications.

What’s “good” about goods equities?

The “Magnificent 7” has massively outperformed the rest of the market, up roughly 30% since the start of the year compared to around 5% for the remaining companies, on AI-related headlines and strong earnings growth.

Is U.S. stock market concentration a warning sign?

This paper addresses the concerns over market concentration in the S&P 500, and the investment implications.

French elections 2024: What to expect when France votes for a new National Assembly

Read our latest On the Minds of Investors article to understand what the outcome of the French National Assembly elections could mean for investors.

Is stock market concentration a warning sign?

Markets have a tendency to over appreciate the near term and under appreciate the long term. We think AI will lead to all sorts of business transformation and productivity gains in the long term, but recent performance has been driven by significant upgrades in near-term AI demand projections.

How is homeowners’ insurance impacting the macro data?

The average homeowners’ insurance policy cost roughly $1,900 in 2023, up over 20% from the previous year and nearly 50% from before the pandemic.

Is it still a good time to be a lender in private markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, highlights the growing significance and potential risks of private credit markets in enhancing returns and diversification.

Is the Fed confident it can cut rates this year?

In the May CPI report, year-over-year headline inflation cooled to 3.3% from 3.4% - down one decimal, yet the median FOMC rate forecast for 2024 moved higher by half a percent.

What are the investment implications of MORENA’s landslide victory in the 2024 Mexican elections?

MORENA party’s candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, won the Mexican presidential election with a historic margin, receiving 60% of votes. This victory was anticipated, but the scale of left-leaning MORENA's win in Congress was unexpected.

Locking in yields as central banks dial back tight monetary policies

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, highlights the divergence in central bank monetary policies and its investment implications.

How can investors diversify portfolios if when equities zig, bonds zig too?

For three years, stock and bond returns have been moving in the same direction. When times are good, this is not thought of as a problem; however, when stocks sell off and bonds are not there to catch them, then investors are faced with an important portfolio construction challenge to solve.

The UK general election: Will all change mean no change?

We explore what the UK election means for the economy and markets.

Is U.S. concentration in global equity indices too extreme?

The U.S. is the largest equity market in the world, but its weighting in the MSCI AC World Index exceeds its global equity market weighting and its projected contribution to global GDP in 2023.

Japan is changing – opportunities and risks for equity investors

Japanese equities are in the spotlight, but investors should be mindful of the risks as well as the opportunities

Is the growth in private credit cannibalizing the high yield market?

To understand these shifting dynamics and determine how to embrace this growing asset class, investors should consider: What’s driving the growth of private credit and the decline in high yield and, if private credit deserves a strategic allocation in a broader credit portfolio?

Why is home ownership unattainable for so many young Americans?

Following the pandemic, median home prices surged by double digits until peaking at the end of 2022. While prices are down roughly 12% since then, home affordability still sits at multi-decade lows.

1Q24 Earnings: Off to a solid start

During the first quarter, U.S. equities shrugged off ever-changing expectations for monetary policy with relative ease, climbing 10.6% despite a sharp hawkish repricing in policy expectations.

Will the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates this year?

At its May meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%.

Will exit activity improve in private equity?

Private equity has been surprisingly resilient throughout the Fed hiking cycle. In 2022, PE only declined by 2%, but is now 3.2% higher than the end of 2021, compared to U.S. small cap stocks, which were 7% lower.

Will the U.S. consumer keep economic growth afloat?

It’s well understood that consumption is the largest contributor to economic growth in the United States accounting for just under 70% of GDP. Therefore, to a large extent, any outlook on the economy hinges on the health of the consumer.

Implications of Middle East tensions for the global economy and markets

We explore the potential economic and market scenarios stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Does AI have the power to enhance our health?

Well-positioned investors could take advantage of the new era unfolding in healthcare transformation.

The quarter in review: what happened in the first three months of 2024?

2023’s so-called “everything rally” was confusing to many market watchers, given the pessimistic macro outlook at the beginning of last year. Now, a quarter into 2024, the rally has clearly continued.

Can multiples still support the equity rally?

The S&P 500 notched 24 new all-time highs in Q1, up 10.6%, with 2.7%-points from earnings, 7.4% from multiple expansion, and 0.4% from dividends.

Would Fed rate cuts benefit EM equities?

Investors should focus on EM regions and sectors that benefit from structural, as well cyclical, tailwinds.

When will the Federal Reserve start cutting interest rates?

As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50% at its March meeting.

Is commercial real estate finding a floor?

After a significant pricing reset, private real estate could be on the verge of a rebound due to a few key drivers.

What has the Fed done in election years?

With monetary policy still at the forefront of the macro landscape in 2024, investors are left wondering how the election might influence Fed policymakers.

Market cap or equal weight?

The S&P 500 has reached a new milestone: crossing 5000. It is up 5.4% year-to-date, compared to the equal weight S&P 500, up just 0.7%.

Should investors be bullish or bearish on US equities?

While recession risks in the US have receded, geopolitical risk, election risk and restrictive monetary policy all threaten the current rally.

Are Chinese equities cheap enough?

As the Year of the Dragon is about to begin in China, investors wonder: Are Chinese equity valuations cheap enough to bring good fortune ahead? What will turn investor sentiment around? Equity valuations already reflect a lot of uncertainty about the short-term and long-term path, suggesting a tactical rebound may be in the cards.

Opportunities in US stocks extend beyond the magnificent seven

We look at why we think investors should look to diversify their exposure to the magnificent seven US stocks.

How soon will the Federal Reserve (Fed) start cutting rates?

At the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year, the FOMC voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%.

4Q23 Earnings: Rounding the corner

Markets achieved a trifecta of good news in 2023: an economy that not only avoided recession but reaccelerated, meaningful progress on disinflation, and the Fed pivot markets had been trying to manifest for over a year.

Can the Magnificent 7 retain its magnificence?

Much has been said about the “Magnificent 7” stocks that dominated market returns last year, ending 2023 up 107% and accounting for around two-thirds of the S&P 500’s performance.

Large caps, mid-caps, or small caps?

After an impressive equity rally in 2023 and new all-time highs to start 2024, investors are evaluating their equity allocations, which includes where to position along the market cap spectrum.

What will drive international equity performance this year?

International equities are likely to benefit this year from positive structural changes, a weaker dollar, and exciting governance changes.

How might geopolitical risks impact markets in 2024?

A spike in oil prices could lead to higher prices at the pump, further disrupting the broad disinflationary trend.

How much does policy influence sector performance?

Although investors may be tempted to invest based on who they think will win the election and how certain policies may be implemented, macro forces often dwarf policy agendas when it comes to sector performance.

Are markets too optimistic about rate cuts in 2024?

For investors, should fundamentals remain solid we would expect the Fed to begin gradually reducing rates by the middle of this year and for long-term rates to stabilize at current levels, before grinding lower over the balance of the year.

How sectors perform under Republicans vs. Democrats

Many investors wonder if they can tweak their existing exposures to be either more defensive against volatility or more opportunistic if certain sectors face future policy tailwinds.

What themes will drive the market in 2024?

We cannot predict what theme will dominate the markets in 2024, but we can control how we react to positive and negative surprises by having a measured approach to portfolios.

Understanding small cap valuations

Understand the drivers of small cap valuations and find out why small cap stocks could still offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.

Sustainability and portfolio returns

Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.

Green bonds: Is doing good compatible with doing well in fixed income?

Green bonds are attractive instruments for working towards positive environmental benefits. Find out why demand for green bonds from investors is expected to continue to grow.

Inflation: A Somewhat Sticky Situation

As we emerge from this pandemic with inflation now rising at its fastest pace since the 1980s, the biggest question for investors is whether some of this inflation will prove “sticky”.

APAC

APAC Market Insights

Robust economy and policy uncertainty tilts the Fed hawkish

Asian equities: Seeking alpha amid trade uncertainty

This paper addresses the challenges that lie ahead for Asian equities in 2025 amid trade tensions and a strong U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.

How could policy changes impact alternative investments?

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the potential impact of U.S. government policy changes on alternative assets.

Trade turbulence: Navigating a potential U.S.-China trade war

This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu, addresses the broader impact of potential U.S. tariffs on China, and the investment implications.

Positives beyond corporate reform

This paper discusses the various drivers apart from corporate reforms that provide positive sentiment to the Japanese equity market, and the investment implications.

The beneficiaries of a U.S. corporate tax cut

This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the impact of a U.S. corporate tax rate cut on corporate earnings, and the investment implications.

Market Outlook 2025

The road ahead: When will U.S. debt be too much?

This paper addresses the current market stability and investor confidence in the U.S. debt situation keeping in mind the long-term risks, and the investment implications.

U.S. Dollar strength and factors that could sustain the current rally

This paper discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar since September, driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields and President-elect Trump's policy stance, and the investment implications.

Future Fed Rate Decisions: Anticipating Responses to Fiscal Policy

Potential Republican sweep sends markets higher, but policy uncertainty looms

This paper, written by David Kelly, Gabriela Santos and Stephanie Aliaga, discusses the potential Republican sweep in the U.S. elections, and the investment implications.

U.S. earnings amble along

This paper addresses the stabilization of S&P 500 earnings in the U.S. on the back of normalizing in growth and inflation, and the investment implications.

A dive into Chinese households’ balance sheets

This paper discusses the consumption outlook and the related impact of the policy stimulus in China from the lens of Chinese households' balance sheets and their vulnerabilities.

China market: Solid policy moves expected after initial valuation recovery

Where is the U.S. dollar headed against Asian currencies?

This article addresses the U.S. dollar's varied performance against Asian currencies and factors affecting various currencies' strength.

Embracing Quality: Navigating global rate cut cycles

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of quality fixed income in a diversified portfolio amid diverse economic and monetary policy landscapes.

What can sustain the latest Chinese equity rally?

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the impact of Beijing's coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.

Beyond the Asian heavyweights: ASEAN equities

This paper addresses the investment opportunities in ASEAN equities on the back of attractive valuations and robust income generation.

Policy recalibration kicks off with a 50bp rate cut

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Will lower yields lead to better performance in real estate markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the opportunities for investors in real estate markets on the back of expected decline in interest rates and bond yields.

Positioning ahead of the Fed

This paper addresses the historical impact of "soft landings" and "hard landings" on asset classes, and how investors can position themselves with Fed rate cuts looming.

Are Asian central banks looking to cut rates soon?

This paper addresses the flexibility of Asian central banks to cut rates amidst easing inflation and robust recovery in currencies, and the investment implications on Asian equities and fixed income.

Why hasn’t the South Korean market done better?

This paper addresses the underperformance of the South Korean market despite strong earnings outlook, improving corporate governance and regulatory reforms, and steady macroeconomic outlook.

China’s drive toward self-sufficiency

This paper addresses how China has strengthened its self sufficiency in automobile and technology sectors, and the investment implications.

U.S. 2Q24 Earnings: Broadening out

This paper discusses the 2Q24 U.S. earnings season, with the eagerly anticipated broadening out of earnings growth for the companies outside the Magnificent 7, and the investment implications.

Markets sell-off recap: Navigating choppy waters

This paper discusses the recent market volatility in the U.S. and Asia on the back of the release of the U.S. July jobs report and latest Federal Reserve commentary, and the investment implications.

The Bank of Japan delivers the second rate hike and provides more detail on quantitative tightening

This paper discusses the BoJ’s decision to hike rates and reduce the pace of its JGB purchases in its latest policy meeting, and the investment implications.

Cuts are coming

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Can the U.S. small cap rotation continue?

This paper discusses whether the strength of the rotation into U.S. small caps is premature given weak fundamentals.

Is China improving?

This paper discusses the investment implications of the latest economic data release from China and the policy rate cut by the PBoC.

Can the Bank of Japan’s policy further support Japanese equities?

This paper discusses how improving economic data can convince the BoJ to normalize monetary policy, and help Japan's earnings growth to outpace the U.S. and Europe in 2024-25.

Corporate governance reforms provide a bit of extra push

This paper discusses how corporate governance reforms in Asian markets can enhance earnings outlook, and the investment implications.

Is U.S. stock market concentration a warning sign?

This paper addresses the concerns over market concentration in the S&P 500, and the investment implications.

Global trade: navigating choppy waters

This paper discusses trade tensions and the recent tariff impositions on China, and the investment implications.

Is it still a good time to be a lender in private markets?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, highlights the growing significance and potential risks of private credit markets in enhancing returns and diversification.

The decimal and the dot

This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)

Locking in yields as central banks dial back tight monetary policies

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, highlights the divergence in central bank monetary policies and its investment implications.

A tight outcome for India’s elections

This paper discusses the election results in India, and the investment implications of short-term valuation challenges and long-term positive prospects.

There’s still a case for Asian equities

This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, discusses why investors should take an active approach towards Asian equities in mitigating currency risks.

The investment implications of U.S. federal debt

This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly and Jennifer Qiu, discusses investment implications of rising U.S. federal debt and widening deficits.

2024 U.S. earnings off to a solid start

This paper discusses why U.S. 1Q24 earnings have been better than expected, and broadening profit growth should present opportunities outside of the Magnificent 7.

The latest inflation and job market trends in the U.S.

This paper discusses the broader outlook for inflation and the labor market, following the April jobs report in the U.S.

Commodities: Reasons behind the recent surges in gold and copper

This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses the recent surges in gold and copper, and why commodity strategies can help protect portfolios when both stocks and bonds are correcting.

A rough sea needs a steady ship

This paper discusses the expected delay in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, and when the current wave of volatility could eventually subside.

China economy: Imbalanced recovery

This paper addresses the latest Chinese economic data and the factors that may contribute to China markets trending higher.

Is there value in European equities?

This paper discusses the relative valuation of European equities, and the factors that could suggest a more constructive outlook for the region's equity market.

Will exit activity improve in private equity?

This paper, written by Kerry Craig, addresses the current performance and outlook of private equity market with subdued exit activity.

Central bankers are not rushing into things

This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses why policy easing amid a soft landing backdrop should be positive for both equities and fixed income.

Is there still value in India?

This paper addresses why strong and consistent earnings growth, structural reforms and the likelihood of political continuity further enhances India's appeal in spite of rich valuations.

Bank of Japan lift off: Symbolic but still a lot of questions

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Adrian Tong, discusses the key highlights of the Bank of Japan's March monetary policy meeting and what it means for the economy.

EM Equities: Inching out of the shadows

This paper discusses the macro factors in emerging markets that can drive a potential market rally once the Fed starts to cut and the U.S. dollar turns.

China NPC review: Policy announcements in line with market expectations

This paper summarizes the key objectives set out in the government work report at China’s National People’s Congress, which were broadly in line with expectations.

Asian economies riding the tech wave

Continued demand for AI technologies from mega-cap companies should benefit Asian exporters that are involved in the regional tech supply chains.

Will the Bank of Japan derail the Japanese equity bull run?

This paper, written by Tai Hui discusses why Japanese equities could remain strong despite the potential tightening in monetary policy.

Is this the time for U.S. small caps?

This paper, written by Meera Pandit and Jennifer Qiu, discusses how quality balance sheets and margins continue to support U.S. large caps in spite of favorable small cap valuations.

Should investors be bullish or bearish on US equities?

While recession risks in the US have receded, geopolitical risk, election risk and restrictive monetary policy all threaten the current rally.

What does it take for the Fed to cut?

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the history of monetary easing and our expectations of Fed policy in 2024. (6-minute read)

Opportunities in Asia fixed income

This paper, written by Raisah Rasid, discusses the expected weakening of the U.S. dollar and the inflation deceleration in Asia, which presents an opportunity in Asia fixed income

China economy: stay patient for policy catalyst

This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the recent Chinese economic data releases and the investment implications.

The investment outlook for Asia high dividend equities in 2024

This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, discusses the outlook for Asia high dividend equities in 2024.

A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

Principles for Successful Long-term Investing

Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.

EMEA

EMEA Market Insights

European economic recovery: Separating cyclical from structural weakness

Uncover the challenges and opportunities shaping Europe's economic future.

UK equity market: A value opportunity, not a value trap

Explore the UK equity market's potential for recovery. Learn how shifts in corporate behaviour, supportive policies and an economic upswing can help drive demand for UK stocks.

What can sustain the latest Chinese equity rally?

This paper addresses the impact of Beijing’s coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.

Budget choices and challenges facing the new UK chancellor

Explore the fiscal challenges and tough choices facing the UK's new chancellor, Rachel Reeves, as she prepares her first budget.

Does a slowing US economy challenge current earnings forecasts?

Explore our article on whether a slowing US economy challenges expectations for corporate earnings.

The UK general election: Will all change mean no change?

We explore what the UK election means for the economy and markets.

European stocks deserve more attention

Europe has made structural improvements and we think investors should sit up and take notice.

Understanding small cap valuations

Understand the drivers of small cap valuations and find out why small cap stocks could still offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.

Green bonds: Is doing good compatible with doing well in fixed income?

Green bonds are attractive instruments for working towards positive environmental benefits. Find out why demand for green bonds from investors is expected to continue to grow.

A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.