RBA’s latest rate hike: Peak hawkishness?
The front-loading of rate hikes and belief that inflation is expected to peak later this year and then decline back towards the 2–3% range does suggest that the RBA may have reached peak hawkishness.
In times like this, it’s important to understand how the market can impact your cash portfolio. As the Chinese government and global central banks continue to unveil unconventional policies, the outlook for Chinese corporate issuers remain uncertain. Watch Andy Chang, Credit Analyst, and Kheng Leong Cheah, Asia Pacific Head of Global Liquidity Sales as they examine the China’s onshore credit market – from investment implications, impacts of major market events, to an industry view, and investment implications.
The front-loading of rate hikes and belief that inflation is expected to peak later this year and then decline back towards the 2–3% range does suggest that the RBA may have reached peak hawkishness.
The recent, aggressive Fed interest rate tightening policy, combined with Hong Kong’s weak economic outlook, moribund Chinese growth and subdued local market sentiment, has pushed the HKD towards the weak side of its convertibility. The HIBOR-LIBOR spread has also widened the most since 2019.
On August 15, the People’s Bank of China announced a MLF rate cut of 10bps to 2.75%. Although small in size, the rate cut confirms the PBOC’s desire to jump-start the economy and sends an important monetary policy signal with significant implications for interest rates and RMB cash investors.
At its monetary policy meeting on August 2, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in-line with expectations, hiked the base rate by 50bps to 1.85%, taking total rate hikes to 175bps over the past 4-months.
On July 27, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its Federal Funds Rate target range by 75 basis points (bps) to 2.25% - 2.50%. There were no dissenters.
On July 14, the MAS announced it would tighten monetary policy by re-centering the S$NEER policy band upwards. While the timing of the MAS statement was a surprise, the market was expecting further policy actions.
At its monetary policy meeting on July 5, the RBA hiked its overnight cash rate by 50bps to 1.35%. This was also the third rate hike in the current cycle, and the first time ever the central bank has executed back-to-back 50bps hikes, reinforcing its inflation fighting credentials.
The Federal Open Market Committee matched market expectations for a 75bp increase to its target range, which now sits at 1.50%-1.75%. It also raised the Interest on Reserve Balances and the overnight Reverse Repo Rate by an equivalent amount to 1.65% and 1.55%, respectively.
On June 7, the RBA surprised the market by raising the Overnight Cash Rate by 50bps to 0.85%. This is the second rate hike in the current cycle, following a 25bps move in early May. The size of the rate hike also affirms the RBA’s desire to get ahead of the inflation fighting curve.
The FOMC met market expectations for a 50bps increase to its target range, which now stands between 0.75% and 1.00%, and raised the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) and the overnight Reverse Repo Rate (RRP) by the same amount to 0.90% and 0.80% respectively.
The RBA hiked its Overnight Cash Rate for the first time in over a decade at its 3rd May monetary policy meeting. The hike was more hawkish than expected.
The latest muted actions by the PBoC suggest the central bank is reaching the limits of monetary policy, which are expected to have direct implications for onshore interest rates.
At its semi-annual policy meeting on 14 April, the MAS announced its decision to further tighten monetary policy. The announcement and upward revision to the MAS's growth and inflation outlook will have important implications for Singapore interest rates and cash investment opportunities.
At its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday 5th of April, the RBA left base rates unchanged at a record low of 0.1% whilst acknowledged that “inflation has picked up and a further increase is expected” in the accompanying comments. Its hawkish tilt and giving a clear hint to potential rate rises in the coming months.
On 15-16 March, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its two-day meeting and raised its federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.25%-0.5%, with one dissenting member calling for a 50bps increase.
At their first monetary policy meeting of 2022, the RBA acknowledged that the economy “remains resilient” despite the recent Omicron outbreak which has not derailed the recovery.
Singapore’s de-facto central bank hiked the slope of the S$NEER policy band, increasing the pace of appreciation. The unexpected hike was triggered by the strong inflation uptrend in recent days as well as a reassessment of Singapore’s growth and inflation expectations in 2022 by the MAS.
On December 7, the PBoC announced an unexpected 50bps Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) cut. The broad based cut will release significant liquidity into the financial system, while the resultant confirmation that policymakers are focused on stabilizing growth has boosted investor sentiment. CNY cash investors should pay attention to the PBoC’s rapid pivot from neutral to dovish monetary policy and the implications.
Rising inflation concerns are amplifying developed market rate hike expectations; in contrast APAC central banks have benefitted from more muted CPI. The rationale for this difference has important implications for investors.
During October, the yield on the RBA’s yield curve control (YCC) target reference bond spiraled upwards and closed at 0.775%, well beyond the central bank’s 0.10% target. This was an unexpected reversal for a bond which was historically very stable with minimal central bank interventions, since the RBA first introduced the YCC program in March 2020.
At its semi-annual monetary policy meeting, the Monetary Authority of Singapore surprised the market by raising slightly the slope of the S$NEER policy band, from zero percent previously.
The RBA announced its first tentative step towards tapering and eventual policy normalization.
In June 2021, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced changes to commercial banks’ mechanism for setting the time deposit ceiling from a multiplier method to a basis points method.
On 9 July 2021, the PBoC announced a 50bps RRR cut that will reduce bank funding costs and unleash a substantial quantity of liquidity support. The size of the rate cut surprised the market and confirmed the authority’s dovish pivot.
Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.
Whenever there’s a tax/spending bill passed by Congress, the Congressional Budget Office “scores” the bill with respect to its impact on deficits, debt and GDP.
Most summer reading lists are carefully curated, inspirational elegies to the human spirit. This is not that. See today’s note for links to reading materials on energy, economics, finance, the Supreme Court, geopolitics and COVID/cancer research as this long hot summer rolls on. Also, a look at the recently unearthed “Shakespeare’s Annotated Guide to Bitcoin”.
Europe’s energy crisis, China’s commodity trade war with Australia and other examples of resource nationalism (India and Indonesia restrictions on exports of wheat, sugar and palm oil) have reinforced the following: relying on essential food and energy imports is a risky proposition with respect to supply, price, currency stability and national security.
The Elephants in the Room. We start with a global summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe. We continue with a detailed assessment of the hydrogen economy, whose liftoff is still many years away.
JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated last week that he expects a “hurricane” resulting from the end of the largest fiscal and monetary experiment in history, and from the ongoing impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on food and energy prices.
The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. You can be patient when adding risk to portfolios; earnings will eventually decline and markets are not pricing in high risk of recession.
A combination of rising rates, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and years of investor acceptance of unprofitable new companies (the “YUCs”) led to a sharp repricing of growth stocks in Q1 of this year.
Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investors, the energy price surge/recession outlook in Europe, the impact of rising metals prices on EV battery costs, and the COVID situation in Hong Kong
In this note we examine the latest on China’s economy and markets. But first: comments on China’s connection to the war in Ukraine since its financial and energy decisions may dilute the effectiveness of sanctions on Russia:
The brief note covers the price Europe is now paying for allowing its energy reliance on Russia to reach extreme levels, and the implications for the durability of sanctions placed on Russia if Russia retaliates with energy sanctions on Europe.
Global markets have had to digest a lot of bad news in a very short period.
In this piece, we examine the adoption trends, capital flows and use cases for cryptocurrencies and blockchains. Use cases include crypto as a store of value, cross border remittances, decentralized finance, non-fungible tokens and blockchain adoption in financial services.
A look at the consequences of reflation for equity markets that are already pricing in plenty of good news.
You have all seen the news articles by now. The short version: Pelosi encouraged House Democrats to pass a bill that Manchin said all along he would not agree to. Read more for our thoughts on the fallout
On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron
Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.
In this Eye on the Market: early signs of goods bottlenecks easing; the more persistent issue of US labor shortages; the US, Taiwan, China, treaty changes and semiconductor capacity; and an update on the most over-indebted US states
The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. A close look at some very anomalous charts on shipping, semiconductors, inventories, labor shortages, foreclosures and mortality.
Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology BI66 “The Origins of COVID” has been cancelled until further notice.
Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US economic recovery update, and big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth at a time of rising anti-trust enforcement. We conclude with a new “Investor Odds & Ends” section that covers NYC hotel/office markets and possible changes in personal, corporate and international tax rates.
COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).
Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.
The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?
The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General
The US recovery; The flood of money and market returns; Globalization lives; Reducing COVID mortality through vascular treatments; Realistic timetables for never-been-done before vaccines; Sweden’s COVID experiment is not what you think
Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer with real time data as a function of infection levels and state policy. Additional topics: no evidence yet of material second waves of COVID infection, and a round-up of the latest news on vaccine trials (Moderna, Oxford, Sinovac) and anticoagulants.
In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.
An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.
In this week’s note, we discuss the latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.
Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet?
In this week's note, we take a close look at country and regional virus data, and examine the pitfalls of over-extrapolating trends that often reverse.
After the equity rally, P/E multiples are back at around 16x 2021 consensus earnings.
Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.
There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can't.
There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.
Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, has compiled his extensive research on coronavirus.
A lot of data is being made available on the coronavirus, but most of it requires careful analysis before drawing conclusions.
Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago?
A Coronavirus update: severity, consequences and implications for investors.
Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.
Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point. A brief note on what happened, and the alternatives.
After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.
How a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.
While recessions and bear markets are a fact of life, something peculiar happened after the Global Financial Crisis: the rise of the Armageddonists.
A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.
Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers and discusses the challenges they face.
A brief comment on a proposal from leading Presidential candidates to ban hydraulic fracturing everywhere, immediately.
It was a long, hot summer at the Heritage Foundation. An update from the front lines of the Trade War.
Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.
Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.
The US-China trade war, prescription drug price legislation and the 2020 election.
Topics: unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal; overview of the world’s decarbonization challenges; Germany’s energy transition; Trump’s War on Science.
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the current outlook of growth stocks and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the outlook of the U.S. high yield corporate bonds and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Gabriela Santos and Anjali Balani, discusses the current outlook for EM equities and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, summarizes the key takeaways from the Jackson Hole meeting and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
Recession warnings from the U.S. and Europe threaten to derail Asian economies’ nascent recovery, mainly through a drag on export demand.
This week, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a legislative package that includes climate spending, prescription drug pricing reform, and tax reform, was signed into law. The IRA represents a meaningful commitment to climate goals and should reduce the deficit over the next decade but is unlikely to reduce inflation and will weigh on 2023 profits.
This paper, written by David Lebovitz, Ian Hui and Nimish Vyaz, summarizes the 2Q22 U.S. earnings result and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the current situation and development of Asian technology sector with investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper addresses the characteristics of U.S. recessions, the economic and market indicators that would help to identify the threat of recessions with its investment implications.
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views on enhancing the 60/40 portfolio in today's market environment with investment implications. (4-minute read)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds rate by 0.75% to a range of 2.25%-2.50%. (3-mins read)
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the views regarding the earnings recession in the U.S. and path of inflation with investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, addresses the prospects and views regarding the gradual recovery of China's economy and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the sustainability as a long-term investment theme and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the reason behind and our view regarding the fixed income as a portfolio component to prepare for slower growth and its investment implications. (3-minute read)
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, describes the situation of private markets under the prospect of higher rates, higher inflation and a slower growth outlook with investment implications. (4-minute read)
The message from the committee is clear, the Fed will expeditiously raise interest rates given it is “strongly committed” to tame inflation. (3-mins read)
Learn more about the investment outlook for the second half of 2022 and how investors should position themselves through a challenging recovery and rising inflation.
While investors will inevitably be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy this week, one question on the back of everyone’s mind would be the risk of a recession in the U.S. (4-minute read)
Even as QT commences, long-term rates are likely to trade range bound between 3.00%-3.5% and be little impacted by balance sheet reduction at first. That said, as bank reserves decline to levels that may restrict bank activity, markets will likely signal the Fed may need to change course.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses inflation and central bank policy in Asia, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the current China's COVID situation and future policy with its investment implications. (4-minute read)
Long-term investors are facing a number of challenges today. Multi-decade-high inflation is eroding purchasing power and portfolio values, and recent volatility across capital markets has made the investment landscape look perilous.
The spike in yields through the first five months of this year has led to some very ugly returns in fixed income.
A re-rating of valuations has led to negative equity returns year-to-date, but importantly, earnings estimates have continued to trend higher. In an environment of rising rates, earnings will be the key driver of returns. (4-minute read)
The US economy is showing signs that the post pandemic surge is beginning to moderate, but we do not think a recession is imminent. Nonetheless, stocks are near correction territory, consumer sentiment has soured to levels last seen in 2011, geopolitical tensions are elevated, and prices are higher everywhere; all of which challenge this view.
The war in Ukraine is causing surging commodity prices, COVID lockdowns in China are exacerbating strained supply chains, and 40-year-high inflation has prompted the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Together these dynamics are also creating uncertainty about future growth.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, addresses the current volatility in global equity markets and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the current Chinese supply chain under the impact of the COVID-19 wave and Chinese policy, and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by 0.50% to 0.75%-1.00% and signaled similar 50 basis point rate increases would be on the table for the next couple of meetings. (3-mins read)
Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the driving forces behind recent depreciation pressure in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, and what this means for investors. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the weakened Chinese economic data in March, and the subsequent policy and investment implications. (4-minute read)
2022 has seen a volatile start, with many of the growth names that performed well in the initial stages of the pandemic—as well as over the prior cycle—under pressure. (4-minute read)
Over the last 15 years, international equities have underperformed U.S. equities by a cumulative 270%. Currency played a role in this underperformance, subtracting 25%, as foreign currencies steadily weakened against the U.S. dollar.
2022 will likely remain volatile for equity markets, as central banks normalize alongside persistently hot-inflation and geopolitical issues result in prolonged uncertainty.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Adrian Tong, looks at how food inflation is impacting Asian economies and what it means for investors. (6-minute read)
This paper, written by Marcella Chow, discusses our long term views on the Chinese Yuan and its investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses how alternatives and core real assets can help investors increase diversification in their portfolios and generate uncorrelated sources of income. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Jordan Jackson, discusses our expectations for U.S. interest rates and what it means for investors. (6-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the latest development in China's policies, and what investors should look out for going forward. (4-minute read)
For the first time since December 2018, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise the Federal funds target rate range by a ¼ percent to 0.25%-0.50% and made it clear further increases would be appropriate to tame inflation. (3-mins read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Marcella Chow, discusses the market and economic impact of the latest COVID-19 wave in China. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Adrian Tong, discusses the key drivers within the transitory and sticky components of inflation and presents our thoughts around their paths lower. (6-minute read)
The Russia-Ukraine Chart Pack aims to help investors understand the investment implications of the current situation in Russia and Ukraine holistically and why it is important to stay invested
An inverted yield curve driven by short rates rising more than long-term yields has preceded every US recession since 1960 and is therefore a closely watched metric among investors regarding the outlook for the economy and markets.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, looks at how recent events have impacted stagflation impulses in different regions, and the implications for investors. (6-minute read)
As the events in Ukraine continue to unfold, this note seeks to answer the economic and market questions from investors around the world. (6-minute read)
A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.
The second paper of this two-part series written by Clara Cheong takes a deeper dive into the year-to-date performance, valuations, reasonableness of the earnings outlook for Asia ex-Japan equities and the investment implications. (9-mins read)
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses our expectations for the outcome of China's National People's Congress meeting and the investment implications. (4-minute read)
In this first part of a two-part paper written by Clara Cheong, we explore the common push-backs to investing in Asia ex-Japan and broader emerging market equities as we enter a monetary tightening regime in the U.S. (9-mins read)
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, explores what happened in the macroeconomic landscape during previous rate hiking cycles of the 70s, 80s and 90s and explain why risk assets generally delivered positive returns across Fed rate hiking cycles. (9-mins read)
The Solving for Income presentation uses selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.
Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.
In both a U.S. led boom-bust recession and global synchronous growth, international equities could outperform, suggesting a key role for the asset class in portfolio construction.
Fourth quarter earnings are off to a solid start and the more cyclical sectors are leading the charge. (4-minute read)
Geopolitical tension in Europe, strong demand recovery and weak supply growth are all contributing to higher oil prices. (4-minute read)
Explore how investors can hedge against inflation to protect their capital in the next cycle with the help of alternatives and cyclical sectors.
2021 was a year of steady reform introduction by Chinese authorities, focused on the long-term goals of improving the quality of growth and on addressing non-economic priorities like inequality, leverage, and decarbonization.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig and Jordan Jackson, looks at the outcome of the January FOMC meeting and implications for different asset classes. (8-minute read)
Today, there are more job openings than there are unemployed workers. Explore what impact a tight labour market could have on inflation in 2022.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, looks at the potential path of U.S. rate hikes and implications for different asset classes (6-minute read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Zhu Chaoping, looks at recently released 4Q21 China economics data, inducing more monetary and fiscal stimulus, and the investment implications. (4-minute read)
Inflation is standing at record levels across many markets. Explore our framework for tracking the impact of supply chain disruption on inflation in 2022.
This paper, written by Clara Cheong, discusses the recent turn to hawkishness of developed market central bank policies and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Clara Cheong and Adrian Tong, looks at our deep-dive analysis into the forward-looking demand, supply chain issues, inflation and their investment implications. (4-minute read)
This paper, written by Zhu Chaoping, discusses China's recent Central Economic Work Conference and its investment implications.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, discusses the FOMC's December meeting announcement.
In the spirit of the 2022 World Cup football tournament in Qatar, we field our starting lineup, or “starting 11” on investing in 2022 and address them using charts from our Market Insights program and Guide to the Markets - Asia.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential impact of the Omicron variant and the investment implications for investors.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the recent developments in Japan market, and several fundamental reasons that investors should pay attention to the investment opportunities it could potentially bring.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu and Kerry Craig, discusses the impact of the recent COVID-19 resurgence in China and other regions, and what it means for investors.
COP26 saw significant announcements in areas such as coal, methane and deforestation, yet progress fell short of the scale required to give us confidence that disruptive climate outcomes can be avoided. Physical climate risks warrant careful consideration for long-term investors.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, discusses the October CPI report and what it means for investors.
Despite a slowdown in 3Q21 economic growth, corporate profits have been better than expected. Investors should use profits as a guide, as rising interest rates could pressure multiples and leave earnings as the main driver of returns.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, discusses the October jobs report and what it means for investors.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, addresses the FOMC's November meeting and their tapering plans.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, Ian Hui and Gareth Lam, discusses whether or not the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are hiking rates too slow or too fast, and what it means for investors.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the potential path of Fed monetary policy and the investment implications for investors.
Tai Hui, Chief Market Strategist Asia Pacific, and Zhu Chaoping, Global Market Strategist, discuss the potential investment implications of the newly released 3Q21 GDP data of China.
Stagflation has become a hotly debated topic among investors as inflation expectations rise and growth expectations fall. This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses our views on the topic and what it means to investors.
Discover why COP26 is important for investors. Explore the potential investment implications that could come with new climate objectives and commitments.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the market impact of the elections in the third and fourth largest economy in the world, and what this means for investors.
The challenge of low government bond yields means investors must rethink the 60:40 stock:bond allocation. Discover where they can turn for diversification.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of newly-elected President Biden's policies, such as those regarding COVID-19 and China.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields on inflation, the U.S. dollar and overall economic recovery.
This paper, written by Alex Cheung and Ian Hui, discusses the outlook on the Chinese fixed income market following FTSE Russell’s decision to include China in its World Government Bond Index.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, analyzes the S&P 500 earnings reports and forecasts and their implications on the recovery from the effects of COVID-19.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, examines the recent decline of the U.S. dollar and its implications on global markets.
A number of countries have seen a pick-up in new infections in recent weeks. Instead of derailing the global economy and forcing another dip in economic activities, the latest outbreaks are more likely to dampen and delay the global economy making a full recovery.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the rebound in Chinese economic activity and its implications for investors.
A consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic is that developed market central banks have pushed policy rates to zero, while engaging in asset purchases to keep bond yields low.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the improving market sentiment and the outlook on equities.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an update on fixed income investment opportunities.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, provides a preview of China’s expected economic policies ahead of the National People’s Congress.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, provides an analysis of the potential long-term investment implications from COVID-19.
Investors are keenly monitoring the number of new infections around the world to gauge whether the COVID-19 outbreak is under control.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discussed the performance and outlook of Chinese economy, policies amid the global pandemic and implication for investors.
Spreads on emerging market (EM) bond yields have widened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis as concerns grow about the size of the economic downturn.
Oil prices collapsed in early March due to the price war between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia
As governments around the world step up their fiscal packages to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government is also following the same path.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever: 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week.
This paper, written by Dr. David Kelly, reviews the U.S> relief bill and its investment implications.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the spread of COVID-19 and the stall in global economic activity.
In the past two weeks, the traditional negative correlation between equities and government bonds has broken down.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for another surprise rate cut this morning (March 16, Asia time), instead of waiting for the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
It is important to avoid trying to predict the future; rather, clients are best served by monitoring the present situation and maintaining composure.
Worries about the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued to grip markets this week.
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Kerry Craig, addresses the latest equity markets’ correction and its investment implications.
The good news is that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in China is coming down and that more people are now recovering than getting infected.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a dominant player in the bond market through successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE).February 19, 2020
The economic fallout from the Coronavirus outbreak is expected to become more significant for the rest of Asia in the weeks ahead.
China will also need to start addressing the economic fallout soon, as businesses face significant pressure from disruption to consumption.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on China following its recent economic data releases and fresh outbreak of COVID-19 infections.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Chaoping Zhu, discusses the outlook on capital markets following a rise in Chinese bond defaults.
Policymakers on both sides of the Pacific have emphasized that they view their work as incomplete and that several issues remain un-addressed.
The U.S. and Chinese governments gave markets an early Christmas present when they agreed to a partial trade deal. However, much will depend on the details.
With over 30 years of demonstrated results, we rely on the same credit process that brought us through the economic downturn of 2008. Watch Jimmie Irby, Global Head of Risk and Credit Administration as he describes J.P. Morgan’s risk process.