In times like this, it’s important to understand how the market can impact your cash portfolio. As the Chinese government and global central banks continue to unveil unconventional policies, the outlook for Chinese corporate issuers remain uncertain. Watch Andy Chang, Credit Analyst, and Kheng Leong Cheah, Asia Pacific Head of Global Liquidity Sales as they examine the China’s onshore credit market – from investment implications, impacts of major market events, to an industry view, and investment implications.
Explore the European Central Bank's recent decision to cut key policy rates by 25 basis points and its implications for inflation forecasts, market reactions, and fund positioning. Understand the ECB's strategic outlook amid trade uncertainties and discover how euro cash investors can navigate the evolving monetary landscape.
Explore the impact of renewed US trade tensions and tariff policies on global markets and liquidity investors. Discover strategic insights on inflation outlook, cross-border considerations, and front-end positioning for resilience and yield. Learn how disciplined flexibility and active management can help navigate market volatility and preserve capital in an uncertain policy environment.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, citing moderating inflation as the reason for easing monetary policy. While AUD deposit rates are declining and the yield curve has flattened, interest rates remain elevated compared to historic standards.
Moody's Ratings has downgraded the United States' long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings from Aaa to Aa1, while changing the outlook from negative to stable.
Explore the Bank of England's cautious approach following a split MPC decision to reduce the Bank Rate to 4.25%. Understand the implications for GBP cash investors amid economic uncertainty, disinflation progress, and revised growth and inflation forecasts.
Over the first three months, the Trump administration has made it clear that they are willing to trade short-term pain for potential future long-term gains.
Explore the complexities of strategic cash management in 2025 as global economies face evolving challenges. This insightful article delves into the impact of trade tensions, central bank policies, and market volatility on cash strategies, offering guidance for investors navigating uncertain macro conditions. Learn about the implications for US, European, UK, and Asia Pacific markets, and discover how money market funds and ultra-short duration strategies can provide attractive returns and flexibility.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintained its dovish stance. It slightly reduced the rate of appreciation of the SG$ NEER policy band but kept the width and centre-point unchanged.
In these uncertain economic times, understanding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the impact of global and domestic financial conditions on the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, and strategic investment approaches for liquidity investors is crucial.
As the financial landscape continues to be characterized by uncertainty and volatility, understanding how to implement effective liquidity strategies is crucial for investors seeking to find the "sweet spot" for their day-to-day investments.
As we navigate the complexities of the U.S. debt ceiling, investors should understand the potential impacts on money market investments.
Explore the European Central Bank's latest monetary policy decision as it cuts key rates by 25 basis points, moving closer to a neutral range. With geopolitical tensions rising and economic growth projections downgraded, the ECB faces a complex landscape. Discover how these changes impact cash strategies and the potential for a pause in rate cuts.
Explore the complexities of 2025's monetary policy, credit markets, and trade. Learn how central banks manage easing cycles, corporate sectors show resilience, and US tariffs impact automakers. Discover strategic investment opportunities and the importance of active management in volatile markets. Stay informed with expert analysis on navigating cash investment strategies in a complex economic landscape.
The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%. This is the central bank's first rate cut since 2020, citing easing inflationary pressures and confidence in inflation moving towards the target range.
Explore the Bank of England's recent decision to cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% in a cautious move towards monetary policy easing. Discover insights from Governor Bailey on maintaining a balanced approach amid inflation and growth forecasts, and understand the implications for GBP cash investors.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25bps to 0.50%, marking the highest level since 2008, as part of its efforts to address persistent inflationary pressures and normalize interest rates.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) adopted a more dovish stance by slightly reducing the slope of the SG$ NEER policy band, while keeping the width and centre-point unchanged.
U.S. Global Liquidity investors can anticipate continued real yields across the entire global liquidity product lineup in 2025
Explore the Global Liquidity EMEA Investment Outlook 2025 with our insights on expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, ECB, and BOE. Discover how these changes may impact money market strategies and investment horizons in the US, Europe, and UK. Learn about potential economic growth challenges and strategic opportunities in the evolving global liquidity landscape.
The 2025 interest rate outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC) will be influenced by geopolitical risks, escalating trade tensions, and the Federal Reserve policy. Regional factors such as domestic economic conditions and the effectiveness of China’s stimulus will also shape central bank decisions.
At the conclusion of their December monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut their three key policy rates by 25 basis points (bps) for the third consecutive meeting.
Explore insights for cash investors navigating the widening economic divergence between the US and Europe. Discover how J.P. Morgan's liquidity strategies are positioned to capitalise on current market conditions, focusing on credit quality and duration management amidst varying central bank policies and recession risks.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to lower the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, with Governor Andrew Bailey emphasizing a cautious approach due to the UK budget's economic impact. The committee plans to continue gradual, quarterly rate reductions, focusing on progress in services inflation before making further adjustments.
Explore the ECB's October strategic rate cuts amid economic uncertainty. Discover how data-driven decisions shape monetary policy and market reactions, with insights from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Stay informed on the latest economic forecasts and implications for cash investors.
Explore the benefits of standard money market strategies amid non-recessionary rate cuts, including higher yields and extended Weighted Average Maturity (WAM). Understand why cash investors are increasingly opting for these strategies.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took the first step in easing monetary policy with a long-anticipated cut to the federal funds target rate of 50 basis points to 4.75-5.00%.
Explore the European Central Bank's recent decision to cut interest rates and its data-dependent approach to future monetary policy. Understand the implications for inflation, GDP growth, and market reactions, as well as strategies for EUR cash investors
Explore how major central banks' policy adjustments are impacting liquidity investment strategies. Learn about the anticipated rate cuts, strong credit fundamentals, and how to adapt investment strategies in the current economic environment.
The ECB and BoE are cautiously approaching rate cuts, with decisions being heavily data-dependent. The ECB is expected to continue cutting rates at alternate meetings into 2025, while the UK base rate may remain unchanged in the near term. Both central banks are balancing the need to support economic growth with the risk of resurgent inflation.
Moderating inflation has allowed central banks to shift their focus towards fostering economic growth, signaling an impending monetary policy pivot. While markets have quickly priced in multiple rate cuts, the pace and magnitude of central bank actions remain uncertain. For APAC cash investors, the implications of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy continues to be significant; but local inflation, economic conditions, and political nuances will also influence regional cash investment strategies.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a narrow majority of 5-4 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%. This is the first cut since March 2020. Governor Andrew Bailey stressed a cautious approach and said the Bank of England (BoE) is alert to risks of another surge in inflation.
On 22 July, the People’s Bank of China cut its 7-day Reverse Repo rate and Loan Prime Rate by 10 basis points. The decision shows the central bank is shifting its focus to the 7-day Open Market Operation rate as its new policy benchmark.
Predicting and timing a rate-cutting cycle is challenging. Focusing on what they can control can help cash investors to capture current yields while strategically positioning for future rate declines.
On 29th January, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) decided to maintain the prevailing rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band, with no change to its width nor centre point.
BOE voted to maintain Bank rate at 5.25% (6:3 split for hike) again. The Panel maintained its guidance that rates would need to be “sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long” to curb inflation.
At its monetary policy meeting on 14th December 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept all key interest rates on hold, for a second consecutive meeting. The ECB announced that reinvestments of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), will decrease by 50% from July 2024. President Lagarde stated that the Governing Council (GC), will not let its guard down, in the fight against inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds target range unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as anticipated. However, the quarterly update for the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested a dovish bias, with the “dots” pointing towards three cuts for next year, with a rate at the end of 2024 of 4.50-4.75%. The market reacted by increasing expectations for rate cuts in 2024, pricing in cuts more aggressively than the Fed.
At their last monetary policy meeting of the year on 5 December, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35%. This was in line with market expectations.
At its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on 13 October, the MAS decided to maintain its prevailing monetary policy stance Fig 1a for a second meeting - following five previous upward adjustments. The decision was In-line with expectations, with the central bank leaving the slope, band width, and mid-point of SGD NEER unchanged.
At Michele Bullock’s first monetary policy meeting as the Governor, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 4.10%. This was the fourth pause in the central bank’s rate hiking cycle.
Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsured deposits.
A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn.
With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began.
Like his predecessor Robespierre during the French Revolution, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine, focused this time around on government spending with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants.
Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
While the markets may have forced the President’s hand to change tack on tariffs, the revised announcement still entails the highest tariff rates in 100 years, subject to some necessary assumptions regarding what happens to $460 bn of US imports from China.
Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions.
Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded.
Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%-0.6% per year. Our 15th annual energy paper covers the speed of the transition, electrification, the changing planet, the high cost of decarbonization in Europe, nuclear power, the Los Angeles fires, Trump 2.0 energy policies, renewable aviation fuels, superconductivity, methane tracking and the continually wilting prospects for the hydrogen economy.
From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones. Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. In this month’s note, we include a Trump policy impact tracker, and an assessment of the statutory and constitutional challenges that Trump policies face as the administration explores the outer limits of executive power.
The sincerest form of flattery: on DeepSeek, NVIDIA, OpenAI and the futility of US chip bans. The DeepSeek episode can be two things at once: (i) a reflection of impressive Chinese AI innovation in the face of US chip bans and other restrictions, and (ii) the by-product of probable terms of service and copyright violations by DeepSeek against OpenAI. A Shakesperean irony: OpenAI may have had its terms of service violated after spending years training their own models on other people’s data. Warning: this piece is very geeky.
Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin Coolidge, the unforgiving enemies lists of Richard Nixon, the deportation policies of Dwight Eisenhower, the manifest destiny of James Polk and the isolationism of 1914-era Woodrow Wilson. American First policies announced yesterday create risks for investors since its supply side benefits collide with its inflationary tendencies; there’s not a lot of room for error at a time of elevated US equity multiples.
Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two China traps, Dr. Seuss goes to Europe, a crypto update and the 2025 Top Ten list.
I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said.
A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be the most reliable barometer of all. To conclude, an ode to vaccines and an RFK bibliography.
For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run.
The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years.
NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending.
A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies could be as bad for recipients of Google’s shelf space payments as they are for Google itself. Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for owners of impaired office buildings. Most distressed sales now require discounts of 60%+ vs pre-COVID levels; the fundamentals of the office sector explain why.
From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs large cap, small cap stocks are at their cheapest levels in the 21st century with potential market and political catalysts in their favor. First, a few words on the CrowdStrike outage.
US small cap stocks were the lions of the 20th century, generating substantial returns over large cap stocks during six different extended periods of time. It has been 20 years since the last one due to a combination of poor small cap profit fundamentals, higher exposure to rising interest rates and the pricing power accruing to the largest stocks in a winner-take-all economy. Small cap has joined value stocks and non-US stocks in the trinity of severely underperforming asset allocation strategies. Relative to large cap, small cap stocks are now at their cheapest levels in the 21st century. While poor fundamentals argue against a seventh multi-year small cap outperformance regime, small cap is much closer to fair value for diversified portfolio investors.
Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District Court injunction against Biden’s LNG export moratorium.
US Presidential elections: a brief primer on candidate replacement; Supreme Court decisions. As part of our ongoing coverage in the Eye on the Market of issues related to the US political process (third party candidates, the 11th and 12th amendments, the Electoral Count Reform Act, faithless electors, the No Labels movement, etc), I want to share a brief description of what we understand regarding candidate replacement procedures after the last Presidential primary and before the general election in November.
Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pressures in the English Premier League, stadium subsidies, sports betting and other adjacent businesses, antitrust issues, the esports winter, the worst teams that money can buy and the best basketball players of all time.
With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering designed to reduce consumption of fertilizer, fungicide and water; and some satellite data on the immense agricultural damage occurring in Gaza and Israel. The Appendix addresses the avian flu’s impact on agriculture and the food supply.
Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: on tech valuations, AI, energy and US politics Last week I spoke to the firm’s tech CEO clients at a conference in Montana. This note is a partial summary of that presentation, entitled “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election”.
Electravision. The predominant vision for the future involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. This vision primarily relies upon the greater efficiency of electric motors and heat pumps vs their fossil fuel counterparts. While the grid is getting greener, electrification is advancing at a much slower pace for reasons related to chemistry, physics, cost, politics and human behavior. Our 14th annual energy paper takes a closer look, and also includes sections on nuclear power, China, hydrogen, “net zero oil” and Gaza’s energy future.
Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities.
This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality.
Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024.
A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit
Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets
A comparison of NYC to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.
I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. The bottom line: a large language model can process reams of text very efficiently, and that’s what it’s made for. But it cannot think or reason; it’s just something I paid for. Upfront, a few comments on oil prices.
Global Resilience to higher rates
The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs
Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.
Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while
Oh, The Places We Could Go: on the US dollar, reserve currencies and the South China Morning Post
Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent convertible securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.
Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.
One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.
US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot
The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it.
The End of the Affair. The affair with market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. A look at a world of higher inflation, more regionalized trade and investment and more capital scarcity.
A discussion of the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX and three rules for investors: the Gensler Rule, the Sirens Rule and the Summers Rule. Our 2023 Outlook will be released as usual on January 1st.
A preliminary read on midterm election results given the context of prevailing market and economic conditions.
My list of things I am thankful for this year: CH4, HR4346 and mRNA-1273. Of course, your mileage may vary.
Three reruns for investors. First, in almost every post-war bear market, equity declines preceded the fall in earnings, growth and employment. As a result, we’re more focused on changes in manufacturing surveys than on the other victims of a recession as a sign of the bottom. Second, Graham Allison’s rising power conflict analysis and its historical precedents come back into focus with the latest US policies cutting off high performance semiconductor exports to China. Third, another press article on a small country as a prototype for a renewable future that does not address its irrelevance for larger developed or developing economies.
Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much greater probability of recession now, the credit markets are just getting started. One canary in the coal mine: the Citrix financing, which will be followed by a string of even weaker credits. On labor markets, the Fed is facing the tightest labor supply conditions in decades. Can second chance policies easing the path to employment for people with criminal arrest records help increase the labor supply, or will the Fed have to crush the economy to restore desired levels of wage and price inflation? Lastly, an update on bivalent vaccines and inhalable vaccines, as the latter offers the best chance of actually reducing infection and transmission.
Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.
The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. A close look at some very anomalous charts on shipping, semiconductors, inventories, labor shortages, foreclosures and mortality.
Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology BI66 “The Origins of COVID” has been cancelled until further notice.
Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US economic recovery update, and big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth at a time of rising anti-trust enforcement. We conclude with a new “Investor Odds & Ends” section that covers NYC hotel/office markets and possible changes in personal, corporate and international tax rates.
COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).
Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.
The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?
The US recovery; The flood of money and market returns; Globalization lives; Reducing COVID mortality through vascular treatments; Realistic timetables for never-been-done before vaccines; Sweden’s COVID experiment is not what you think
In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.
In this week’s note, we discuss the latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.
Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet?
In this week's note, we take a close look at country and regional virus data, and examine the pitfalls of over-extrapolating trends that often reverse.
After the equity rally, P/E multiples are back at around 16x 2021 consensus earnings.
Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.
There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can't.
There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.
A lot of data is being made available on the coronavirus, but most of it requires careful analysis before drawing conclusions.
Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago?
A Coronavirus update: severity, consequences and implications for investors.
Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point. A brief note on what happened, and the alternatives.
After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.
How a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.
While recessions and bear markets are a fact of life, something peculiar happened after the Global Financial Crisis: the rise of the Armageddonists.
A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.
Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers and discusses the challenges they face.
A brief comment on a proposal from leading Presidential candidates to ban hydraulic fracturing everywhere, immediately.
It was a long, hot summer at the Heritage Foundation. An update from the front lines of the Trade War.
Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.
Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.
The US-China trade war, prescription drug price legislation and the 2020 election.
Topics: unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal; overview of the world’s decarbonization challenges; Germany’s energy transition; Trump’s War on Science.
In this 2025 Mid-Year Outlook, we aim to address key topics/themes that investors need to consider.
This paper discusses the impact of artificial intelligence advancement on businesses, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses how commodities, especially gold, can be a valuable investment tool for diversification and hedging against global growth risks.
This paper discusses the possibility of the U.S. economy continuing to slow given materially higher tariff levels and lagged effects from earlier escalations, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the reasons for Moody's downgrade of the U.S., and the implications for markets and investors.
This paper discusses the impact of a weaker U.S. economy and supportive monetary policies across Asia on Asian growth, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the resiliency and flexibility of private credit structures, and the possible risks associated during a challenging economic environment.
This paper, written by Adrian Wong, highlights Asian equities' resilience amid tariff uncertainties, offering diversification with undemanding valuations.
This paper discusses the reasons why APAC could be more cushioned to withstand an economic downturn in the U.S. this time around, and the investment implications.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper discusses the strong first quarter U.S. earnings data points on the back of tariff uncertainty and a lower U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar as a result of both policy and economic reasons, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses how investors can diversify their portfolios during market volatility with liquid alternatives, risk management and tactical asset allocation for capital preservation and potential gains.
This paper discusses the latest GDP and economic activity numbers in China and the factors that may impact strong growth for the rest of 2025, along with the investment implications.
This paper discusses the factors surrounding the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.
This paper addresses the potential impacts of the universal and reciprocal tariffs announced by the U.S. on 2nd April, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the major tariff announcements by U.S. President Trump, and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Raisah Rasid and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of a diversified portfolio to manage market volatility and capture potential recovery upside.
This paper discusses the tariff proposed and implemented by the Trump administration, and what to expect on April 2nd and the potential impact.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper discusses the slowdown in growth in the U.S. economy and the possibility of a recession on the back of policy uncertainty, and the investment implications.
Insights to guide investors through the opportunities and risks arising from policy from the new administration.
This paper addresses the case for defensive and income seeking strategies on the back of growing uncertainties around government policies, geopolitics and monetary policies.
This paper discusses the key takeaways from the Chinese NPC annual session, and the investment implications for Chinese and Asian investors based off recent market volatility.
Our principle six time-tested strategies for guiding investors and their portfolios through today's challenging markets to reach tomorrow's goals.
This paper discusses how investors can manage the concentration risk in the global equity markets, and the investment implications from diversifying across indices, geographies and asset classes.
This paper discusses the motivation and impact of the proposed U.S. tariffs on its trading partners, and the investment implications.
The Solving for Income presentation uses selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.
Using selective slides from the Guide to the Markets – Asia to examine the role of fixed income and how it will benefit investors by keeping it as a key investment objective.
This paper discusses the impact of higher tariffs and lower immigration on the U.S. economy, and the uncertainty accompanied by the rapid pace of the executive orders initiated by U.S. President Trump.
This paper discusses U.S. President Trump's trade and foreign policy approach, and the possible impact of reciprocal tariffs on markets.
This paper discusses the upward trend in Chinese equities in 2025 on the back of the recent AI developments, and how more positive macro catalysts can help further sustain this market and investor sentiment.
This paper, written by Adrian Wong, discusses the attractiveness of Asian equities on the back of 4Q earnings releases, and the investment implications.
This paper addresses the case for transport assets as a means for portfolio diversification on the back of broader trade uncertainty and economic volatility.
This paper addresses why the Indian market continues to remain a promising investment opportunity in spite of recent downturn in macroeconomic and market performance.
This paper addresses the recent trade tensions caused by the imposition of heavy tariffs by U.S. President Trump on Mexico, Canada and China, and the investment implications.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper, written by Tai Hui, discusses the spike in developed market government bond yields in recent weeks on the back of political and economic circumstances, and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the China 4Q 2024 GDP results on the back of policy stimulus measures, and the need to maintain policy consistency heading into 2025.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses U.S. equity investment, highlighting the importance of fundamentals, and managing portfolio during market fluctuations.
This paper discusses the near-term pains that await Asian economies from the proposed U.S. tariffs, and how Asia can navigate this trade uncertainty from a long-term perspective.
At its final meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the Federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%, cutting rates by a 100 basis points (bps) or 300 bps annualized in 2024.
This paper addresses the challenges that lie ahead for Asian equities in 2025 amid trade tensions and a strong U.S. dollar, and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the potential impact of U.S. government policy changes on alternative assets.
This paper, written by Jennifer Qiu, addresses the broader impact of potential U.S. tariffs on China, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the various drivers apart from corporate reforms that provide positive sentiment to the Japanese equity market, and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the impact of a U.S. corporate tax rate cut on corporate earnings, and the investment implications.
In our 2025 Market Outlook, we address 9 frequently asked questions by investors in the region and beyond. We hope our insights can help you navigate the road ahead, on the way to your investment objectives.
This paper addresses the current market stability and investor confidence in the U.S. debt situation keeping in mind the long-term risks, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar since September, driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields and President-elect Trump's policy stance, and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Meera Pandit, discusses the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%, and the investment implications.
This paper, written by David Kelly, Gabriela Santos and Stephanie Aliaga, discusses the potential Republican sweep in the U.S. elections, and the investment implications.
This paper addresses the stabilization of S&P 500 earnings in the U.S. on the back of normalizing in growth and inflation, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the consumption outlook and the related impact of the policy stimulus in China from the lens of Chinese households' balance sheets and their vulnerabilities.
This paper, written by Chaoping Zhu, discusses the stimulus measures adopted by Chinese policy makers in response to deflationary risks, and the need for clearer future plans amid economic uncertainties.
This article addresses the U.S. dollar's varied performance against Asian currencies and factors affecting various currencies' strength.
This paper, written by Marcella Chow and Jennifer Qiu, addresses the importance of quality fixed income in a diversified portfolio amid diverse economic and monetary policy landscapes.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses the impact of Beijing's coordinated policies on the recent Chinese equity market rally, and the long-term investment implications.
This paper addresses the investment opportunities in ASEAN equities on the back of attractive valuations and robust income generation.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, discusses the opportunities for investors in real estate markets on the back of expected decline in interest rates and bond yields.
In this piece, we compare the proposals of Vice-President Harris and former President Trump across taxes, trade and immigration, and the potential market implications of different election outcomes.
This paper addresses the historical impact of "soft landings" and "hard landings" on asset classes, and how investors can position themselves with Fed rate cuts looming.
This paper addresses the flexibility of Asian central banks to cut rates amidst easing inflation and robust recovery in currencies, and the investment implications on Asian equities and fixed income.
This paper addresses the underperformance of the South Korean market despite strong earnings outlook, improving corporate governance and regulatory reforms, and steady macroeconomic outlook.
This paper addresses how China has strengthened its self sufficiency in automobile and technology sectors, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the 2Q24 U.S. earnings season, with the eagerly anticipated broadening out of earnings growth for the companies outside the Magnificent 7, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the recent market volatility in the U.S. and Asia on the back of the release of the U.S. July jobs report and latest Federal Reserve commentary, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses the BoJ’s decision to hike rates and reduce the pace of its JGB purchases in its latest policy meeting, and the investment implications.
This paper summarizes the key highlights from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (3-min read)
This paper discusses whether the strength of the rotation into U.S. small caps is premature given weak fundamentals.
This paper discusses the investment implications of the latest economic data release from China and the policy rate cut by the PBoC.
With the U.S. election approaching, potential U.S. policy changes are a key concern for global investors. After most U.S. elections, the MSCI EM Index has had positive performance in the 100 days following.
This paper discusses how improving economic data can convince the BoJ to normalize monetary policy, and help Japan's earnings growth to outpace the U.S. and Europe in 2024-25.
This paper, written by Tai Hui, addresses why policy easing amid a soft landing backdrop should be positive for both equities and fixed income.
This paper discusses how corporate governance reforms in Asian markets can enhance earnings outlook, and the investment implications.
This paper addresses the concerns over market concentration in the S&P 500, and the investment implications.
This paper discusses trade tensions and the recent tariff impositions on China, and the investment implications.
This paper, written by Kerry Craig, highlights the growing significance and potential risks of private credit markets in enhancing returns and diversification.
With over 30 years of demonstrated results, we rely on the same credit process that brought us through the economic downturn of 2008. Watch Jimmie Irby, Global Head of Risk and Credit Administration as he describes J.P. Morgan’s risk process.
