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  1. The Weekly Brief | Global Market Strategy & Insights

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The Weekly Brief

04-12-2023

Thought of the week

Eurozone headline inflation fell to a preliminary 2.4% year-on-year in November. Energy continued to detract from the overall print, as energy prices today compared favourably with higher levels last winter. Inflation should continue to moderate over the next few months, thanks partly to still-supportive base effects. However, through 2024 base effects will become less favourable as year-ago prices for energy and food will be less elevated. Given this, we expect the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) first rate cut to come somewhat later than investors are currently expecting, once services inflation – currently driven by tight labour markets – has slowed more meaningfully. But slowing services inflation would likely be accompanied by a slowing economy. Thus, once the ECB does begin reducing rates, cuts could be deeper than currently priced – a potential boost for core fixed income.

Energy base effects are helping eurozone inflation

Eurozone inflation breakdown, % change year on year

JPMorgan_Insights_Weekly_Brief_EN
Source: Eurostat, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Food includes alcohol and tobacco. Data as of 1 December 2023.

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