The Weekly Brief

Week of 14 April 2025

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Thought of the week

As markets react to ongoing trade announcements, investors should not overlook the behaviour of the US dollar. After reaching its highest level since the 1980s in early 2025, the dollar has since weakened meaningfully compared to a basket of foreign currencies. This dollar decline during a period of elevated trade uncertainty is noteworthy. Historically, economic uncertainty and falls in risk assets have tended to be accompanied by dollar strength. This strength typically reflected investors' expectations that the US economy and US assets would hold up better than elsewhere in periods of volatility. Yet in 2025, the greenback has been hit by a combination of US growth concerns and a regional rotation in equity leadership. With this latest trade-related growth shock emanating from the US, the dollar's ability to diversify against further volatility in risk assets thus looks less certain.

Tariffs have weighed on the US dollar
Dollar (DXY) index
chartOfTheWeekImage

The Week Ahead

Day
DayCountry/regionEventPeriodPrior
TueEurozoneIndustrial production (m/m)Feb0.8%
UKRegular wage growth (y/y)Feb5.9%
UKUnemployment rateFeb4.4%
WedChinaGDP growth (y/y)Q15.4%
ChinaRetail sales (y/y)Mar4.0%
UKHeadline CPI (y/y)Mar2.8%
UKCore CPI (y/y)Mar3.5%
USRetail sales (m/m)Mar0.2%
USIndustrial production (m/m)Mar0.7%
ThuEurozoneECB deposite rate decision Apr2.5%
FriJapanHeadline CPI (y/y)Mar3.7%

Market Statistics

Equities
EquitiesChange (%)
EquitiesWeek agoYTDYear ago
MSCI Europe-1.5-2.3-0.8
DAX-1.32.313.5
CAC 40-2.3-3.5-8.7
IBEX-0.77.020.2
FTSE MIB-1.8-0.06.5
FTSE 100-1.0-1.34.2
S&P 5005.7-8.54.6
TOPIX-0.6-10.4-7.9
MSCI EM-3.8-2.54.4
MSCI China-8.04.323.7
MSCI Brazil0.74.4-2.9
MSCI AC World2.9-7.23.0
Energy-2.2-7.1-14.5
Materials2.3-2.0-10.0
Industrials3.3-4.41.4
Cons discr.1.7-13.10.5
Cons staples1.63.710.0
Healthcare-0.7-3.4-4.1
Financials2.1-2.316.0
Technology7.2-15.00.2
Comm serv.3.7-6.29.0
Utilities0.63.016.9
Value1.0-3.04.1
Growth4.8-11.02.1
Bond spreads
Bond spreadsLevelChange (bps)
Bond spreads11/04Week agoYTDYear ago
Global IG11852921
EMBIG (USD)34835375
Global High Yld444-212089
Bond yields (10 yr)
Bond yields (10 yr)LevelChange (bps)
Bond yields (10 yr)11/04Week agoYTDYear ago
UK4.75301855
Germany2.53-4175
USA4.4745-11-10
Japan1.30132244
Commodities
CommoditiesLevelChange (%)
Commodities11/04Week agoYTDYear ago
Brent $/bbl64-3.4-14.4-29.0
Gold $/oz32376.323.338.4
Currency
CurrencyLevel
Currency11/04Week agoYTDYear ago
$ per €1.131.101.041.07
£ per €0.870.850.830.86
$ per £1.311.291.251.25
¥ per €163160163164
¥ per $144146157153
CHF per €0.920.940.940.98
Volatility (%)
Volatility (%)Level
Volatility (%)11/04Week agoStart of yearYear ago
VIX38451715
Macro
MacroGDP %†CPI %
Eurozone0.92.2
UK0.42.8
US2.52.4
Japan2.23.7
China6.6-0.1
Valuation
ValuationForward P/E
MSCI Europe13.2
FTSE 10010.9
S&P 50019.3
MSCI EM11.3
MSCI World17.4

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Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of 11/04/2025 or most recently available.

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Note: All index returns are total returns in local currency. *Term = index duration. †GDP q/q seasonally adjusted annual rate.