Currency valuation methodologies
Valuation is a key pillar of active currency management, despite the long time horizon required.
Read more
Currency
Stay up to date on the latest thoughts from our Currency Management Group
EXPLORE THE LATEST
Improved cyclical outlook pushes USDCAD towards fair value
The Canadian dollar has appreciated substantially this year and we believe it is now approaching fair value versus the US dollar. While our longer-term models remain overweight, we have begun scaling back exposure.
Read more
To hedge or not to hedge, that is the question
The decision whether to hedge currency exposure is dependent on three main variables: the investor’s risk appetite; the portfolio composition; and the economic environment. For investors, as with any investment decision, it is important that they understand their ability and their willingness to take risk.
Read more
Disentangling the dollar outlook from US growth
Over the past few quarters our forecast that widening trade deficits would weigh on the US dollar has broadly been correct. The prospects for trade-related flows look set to remain a challenge for the dollar. By contrast, the growth outlook for the US economy is bright.
Read more
Is hedging leading to an alpha opportunity for the yen?
The Japanese yen has been a popular currency to own during over the past few months by virtue of its negative correlation with equities.
Read more
Finding value in passive hedging
The increased level of interest rate volatility in the currency swap market has received considerable attention from market participants.
Read more
Outlook for the Pound as the Brexit Deadline Approaches
Our long standing view on the pound has been that it is not as cheap as widely perceived despite the fall related to Brexit.
Read more
The euro as a funding currency
A couple of key trends in capital flows suggest the role of euro funding is growing, and we outline the near-term implications for currency markets.
Read more
Fragile, not overvalued: revisiting the Swiss franc
Despite the Swiss National Bank (SNB) continued to characterise the Swiss franc as highly valued, we suggest that any overvaluation may be illusory.
Read more
Market misconceptions on Scandinavian currencies
Since the start of 2013, consensus forecasts for the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone have been persistently bullish and persistently wrong.
Read more
What would a Conservative government mean for sterling?
With current general election polling consistent with a victory for the Conservative Party, the pound has outperformed over the last few months.
Read more
Currency
Our currency team provides solutions for clients, controlling risk using passive management strategies and generating returns by actively managing global currencies.
Read more
Why the US dollar may not be as overvalued as you think
We believe the US dollar is currently experiencing a rare structural change in valuation level that means it may be far less overvalued than is widely believed.
Read more
Currencies through an ESG lens
We believe a well-designed, tailored approach to using ESG factors for active currency management can be a source of added value for clients over the long term.
Read more
Why is the potential for US currency intervention a topic of interest?
The probability of US unilateral intervention has risen from a tail scenario to one of low-to-moderate probability.
Read more
Will the dollar continue to underperform?
How the dollar trades following the cut in rates, depends to a large extent on whether the rate cuts are mid cycle or recessionary.
Read more