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Insights to empower better decisions

Tools and resources necessary to help you make informed investment decisions and build stronger portfolios

EXPLORE OUR FLAGSHIP INSIGHTS

Liquidity Insights

Discover our vast array of liquidity insights covering global investment news and trends.

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Market Insights

Simplify the complex with our thought-provoking insights written by our global team of strategists.

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Eye on the Market

Explore timely commentary on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios by Michael Cembalest.

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Portfolio Insights

Get perspectives and analysis from our investment teams to help guide portfolio decisions.

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OUR EXPERTS CAN GUIDE YOU THROUGH PERIODS OF EXTREME TURBULENCE

LIQUIDITY INSIGHTS EYE ON THE MARKET MARKET UPDATES
LIQUIDITY INSIGHTS

ECB and Minimum Reserve Requirements

Market attention has veered towards other policy options that are at the disposal of the ECB’s Governing Council (GC). One such option, the remuneration of Minimum Reserve Requirements (MRR), has recently come under particular focus. While not widely understood, adjustments to this rate could have significant implications for short term interest rates and liquidity demand.

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RBA: one more (and done?)

At its monetary policy meeting on the 7 November, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to raise the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to a 12-year high of 4.35%. The rate hike, which follows a five-month hiatus was widely anticipated by economists following stronger than expected economic data.

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Bank of England keeps rates unchanged but doesn’t want to appear dovish

At its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the BoE voted to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%. The BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey noted that inflation has fallen, and is expected to fall further this year and next year, while monetary policy is viewed as restrictive.

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Is the ECB out after a count of 10?

At its monetary policy meeting on 26 October 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept all key interest rates on hold, the first pause after 10 consecutive rate rises.

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Monetary Authority of Singapore: Policy sufficiently tight to pause

At its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on 13 October, the MAS decided to maintain its prevailing monetary policy stance Fig 1a for a second meeting - following five previous upward adjustments. The decision was In-line with expectations, with the central bank leaving the slope, band width, and mid-point of SGD NEER unchanged.

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RBA: New Governor, similar policy stance

At Michele Bullock’s first monetary policy meeting as the Governor, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 4.10%. This was the fourth pause in the central bank’s rate hiking cycle.

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Proceed with caution: Fed keeps rates on hold

The FOMC unanimously decided to make no changes to the 5.25%-5.50% federal funds target range. Interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) rate were also left unchanged at 5.40% and 5.30%, respectively

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Time to step out

The rise in interest rates over the last two years has been dramatic. UK interest rates have risen at the sharpest pace since the 1980s, while rates in Europe have rapidly increased from negative territory to the highest level since the inception of the euro. Evidently, this sharp rise in rates is good news for corporate treasurers.

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BoE hits pause on hikes for now

At its September 2023 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained Bank Rate at 5.25% in a split 5-4 decision, while unanimously deciding to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by £100 billion over the next twelve months.

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ECB raises rates once more, taking the deposit rate to a record high

At its monetary policy meeting on 14 September 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) tightened monetary policy further, increasing key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps).

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China banks navigate property downturn

For the past three decades, the property sector has been a key driver of Chinese economic growth. While the recent property downturn in China has created challenges for the banks’ operating environment, the banks’ credit profiles likely remain resilient in the future.

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PBoC RRR cut – A strong dovish policy signal

On 14 September 2023, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a broad based 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) rate cut. The timing and the shortness of the notice period was unexpected.

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RBA: Unchanged at Governor Lowe's last call

At Governor Lowe’s last monetary policy meeting as head of the RBA, the bank decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 4.10%. This was widely expected by economists following slightly softer economic data and a recent decline in monthly inflation.

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PBoC cuts MLF again as economic data continues to disappoint

On 15 August 2023, the People’s Bank of China cut its 1-year Medium Term Lending Facility by 0.15% to 2.50% and its 7-day open market operation repo rate by 10bps to 1.80%.

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On the Fitch Downgrade

On August 1, 2023 Fitch downgraded the United States of America’s long-term credit rating one notch, from AAA to AA+.

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BoE slows the pace of hikes with rates rising to 5.25%

The Bank of England (BoE) opted to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25%, as a recent cooling in both inflation and the economic outlook allowed it to moderate the magnitude of its hike from the 50bps delivered in June.

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Reserve Bank of Australia – Pausing on optimistic forecasts

At its monetary policy meeting on 1 August 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged for a second month. This follows a cumulative 400bps of rate hikes over the previous fifteen months, which has taken base rates to a decade high of 4.10%.

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ECB raises rates once more, but future decisions look finely balanced

At its monetary policy meeting on 27 July 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) tightened monetary policy further, increasing key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps).

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Patient and resolute

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to raise interest rates 25bps. The new target range is 5.25%-5.50%—the highest level in more than 22 years—yet we may not have reached the peak.

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European Commission report finds MMFs remained resilient during recent market stresses

On 20 July 2023, the European Commission published its report to the Council and the European Parliament on the adequacy of the European Union Money Market Fund Regulation.

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New money market fund rules from the US SEC

On 12 July 2023, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced amendments to its rules governing money market funds (MMFs). The new rules will lead to changes for US domiciled MMFs, as well as specific changes impacting institutional (prime and tax exempt) MMFs, and government, Treasury and retail MMFs.

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Reserve Bank of Australia – A pause to assess

At its monetary policy meeting on the 4th of July, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the overnight cash rate unchanged at 4.10%. This represents the second pause in the central bank’s current hiking cycle.

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BoE switches back up a gear as rates hit 5.00%

The Bank of England (BoE) raised Bank Rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.00% as recent upside in data indicated more persistent inflationary pressures and justified a 13th consecutive increase.

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Don’t call the Fed’s action a pause (or a skip)

The FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.00%-5.25%. The interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) rate were also left unchanged at 5.15% and 5.05%, respectively.

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ECB hikes for an eighth time

At its 15 June 2023 monetary policy meeting, the ECB increased all three key interest rates by 25bps, bringing the refinancing rate to 4.00%, the marginal lending facility to 4.25% and the deposit facility rate to 3.50%.

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PBoC reinforces its dovish stance

In a widely anticipated move, the Peoples Bank of China cut its 1-year Medium-Term Lending Facility by 10bps to 2.65% on the 15th of June. The action follows a 7-day Repo cut and a Standing Lending Facility rate cut last week and highlights the central bank’s decisively dovish pivot as the authorities seek to stabilize China’s faltering economic recovery.

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PBoC’s small, yet clear dovish signal

At its 13th June Open Market Operation, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its 7-day Reverse Repo Rate by 10bps to 1.90%. The repo rate is a key tool used by the central bank to ensure adequate market liquidity, this also represents the first repo rate cut since August 2022.

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The RBA surprises as inflation trumps growth

At its 6 of June Monetary Policy Meeting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to a new cycle high of 4.10%. The rate hike surprised investors, who were expecting additional rate hikes following the RBA’s hawkish pivot at its May Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting but remained uncertain as to the exact timing of any RBA action.

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What happens when Hong Kong’s Aggregate Balance hits zero?

Since February this year, the Hong Kong Dollar (HK$) has hit the weak side of its convertibility versus the US Dollar (US$) on multiple occasions. This has necessitated ongoing foreign exchange intervention by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) to support the HK$.

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BoE hike in May, recession gone away

The Bank of England (BoE) raised the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50% in a split 7-2 vote as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) believes persistent inflationary pressures and a tight labour market justified a twelfth consecutive increase.

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ECB slows hikes, but has “more ground to cover”

At its 4th of May monetary policy meeting, the ECB increased all three key interest rates by 25bps, bringing the refinancing rate to 3.75%, the marginal lending facility to 4.00% and the deposit facility rate to 3.25%.

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The U.S. debt ceiling: Latest thoughts and updates

The U.S. federal government reached its debt limit - Commonly called the “debt ceiling”, the debt limit is the maximum amount of debt that the U.S. Department of the Treasury can issue to the public or to other federal agencies.

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The RBA’s narrowing path to a soft landing

At its monetary policy meeting on May 3, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the market by hiking its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%. Justifying its abrupt volte-face, the central bank said “inflation… is still too high and it will be some time yet before it is back in the target range”.

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MAS pauses as growth outlook dims

Following its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on April 14, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left its prevailing monetary policy unchanged – including the slope, width and center-point of the band – unchanged. This represents the central bank’s first pause since it began tightening its policy in October 2021.

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RBA - On hold for now

On 4 April, the Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%. This represents the first pause by a major central bank and follows a cumulative 350bps of hikes over the past ten consecutive meetings.

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The Fed’s balancing act

The FOMC maintained its firm stance against inflation by raising interest rates 25bps to 4.75%-5.00%, despite heightened financial stability risk. Interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the overnight reverse repo rate (RRP) were also increased by equivalent amounts to 4.9% and 4.8%, respectively.

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Bank of England keeping options on the table

At its March 2023 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.25%, the highest level since November 2008. The increase was largely expected by the market despite recent global financial market volatility.

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PBOC RRR cut – Front Loading Policy Support

On Friday 17th March, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a broad-based 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) rate cut, releasing additional liquidity into the banking system and reducing commercial bank funding costs.

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ECB sticks with 50bps hike, despite market turmoil

The European Central Bank (ECB) acted on February’s forward guidance by increasing key interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), despite current market volatility.

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Reserve Bank of Australia - A pivot to less hawkish

At its monetary policy meeting on the 7th of March, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to an eleven-year high of 3.60%. The rate hike was widely anticipated following last month’s hawkish pivot.

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RBA – No pause yet

At its first monetary policy meeting of 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.35%. The move represents the ninth consecutive hike in the current cycle, and the accompanying statement was more hawkish than expected.

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ECB stays the course towards inflation reduction

The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with expectations to a 15-year high of 3.00%. In the accompanying statement and subsequent press conference, the ECB maintained its hawkish tone, signalled an intention to increase rates by a further 50 bps in March.

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UK turns a corner but risks remain large

The Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 4.00% in a split 7-2 vote as a tight labour market and continued domestic wage and price pressures justified a tenth consecutive increase.

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On The U.S. Debt Ceiling

To prevent the United States from defaulting on its payment obligations, the Treasury will now be forced to utilize its cash balances and take steps towards “extraordinary measures.”

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The Bank of England “strikes” again

At its 14 December monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England voted to raise the Bank Rate by 50bps to 3.50%, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since 2008.

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ECB reduces the rate hike but increases the rhetoric

At its last monetary policy meeting of 2022, the ECB increased all key interest rates by 50 bps, bringing the refinancing rate to 2.50%, the marginal lending facility to 2.75% and the deposit facility rate to 2.00%. This rate hike was a step down from the 75-bps increases of the previous two meetings.

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Downshift, but still hiking

The FOMC unanimously decided to downshift to a smaller but, in the words of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, “still historically large increase” of 50 bps.

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RBA – debating hikes and lags

At their final monetary policy meeting of 2022, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to a decade high of 3.10%.

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PBoC cuts RRR – A renewed dovish signal

On Friday 25 November, the People’s Bank of China announced a 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio cut. In the accompanying statement, the PBoC confirmed the RRR cut was part of a package of measures to support economic growth.

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Stepping out for the Fed pivot

After a series of jumbo rate hikes, it appears most investors are anticipating a pivot from the US Federal Reserve. However, the elevated level of inflation and resilience of the economy mean that rate cuts are unlikely for some time.

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Bank of England joins the 75bps club, but don’t expect a repeat!

At its 3 November monetary policy meeting, the BoE finally joined the 75bps rate hike club, increasing the base rate to 3.00%, the highest level in almost 14 years. Over the past 11 months, the central bank has pushed the base rate up by 290bps – the fastest pace on record – driven by a combination of elevated inflation, a tight employment market and the potential for this to lead to more persistent inflation, and the recent fiscal support for household energy bills.

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RBA committed to a slower cadence

At its monetary policy meeting on 1 November, the RBA raised the Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 2.85%. This was the seventh hike in the current cycle, taking base rates to a nine-year high.

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Monetary Authority of Singapore - Leaning against price pressures

At its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on 14 October, the MAS re-centered the mid-point of the S$NEER up to its prevailing level – approximately a 2% increase – while keeping the slope and width of the policy band unchanged.

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A divided Bank of England delivers 50bps as rates rise to 2.25%

The Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 2.25% in a split 5-3-1 vote as the tight labour market, higher wages and higher domestic inflation justified a seventh consecutive hike.

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PBOC attempts to jump-start the economy

On August 15, the People’s Bank of China announced a MLF rate cut of 10bps to 2.75%. Although small in size, the rate cut confirms the PBOC’s desire to jump-start the economy and sends an important monetary policy signal with significant implications for interest rates and RMB cash investors.

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Hiking forcefully into a recession

In a near-consensus 8-1 vote, the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 1.75%, the highest level in over 13 years as domestic cost and price pressures intensify.

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When does unusually large become usual?

On July 27, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its Federal Funds Rate target range by 75 basis points (bps) to 2.25% - 2.50%. There were no dissenters.

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The Monetary Authority of Singapore – an expected surprise of S$NEER hike

On July 14, the MAS announced it would tighten monetary policy by re-centering the S$NEER policy band upwards. While the timing of the MAS statement was a surprise, the market was expecting further policy actions.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia: moving ahead of the curve?

On June 7, the RBA surprised the market by raising the Overnight Cash Rate by 50bps to 0.85%. This is the second rate hike in the current cycle, following a 25bps move in early May. The size of the rate hike also affirms the RBA’s desire to get ahead of the inflation fighting curve.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish turn

The RBA hiked its Overnight Cash Rate for the first time in over a decade at its 3rd May monetary policy meeting. The hike was more hawkish than expected.

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Reserve Bank of Australia: From patience to pragmatism

At its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday 5th of April, the RBA left base rates unchanged at a record low of 0.1% whilst acknowledged that “inflation has picked up and a further increase is expected” in the accompanying comments. Its hawkish tilt and giving a clear hint to potential rate rises in the coming months.

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Fed lift-off

On 15-16 March, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its two-day meeting and raised its federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.25%-0.5%, with one dissenting member calling for a 50bps increase.

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Bank of England see-saw back to a dovish stance

The Bank of England (BoE) raised the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.75% in a split 8-1 vote with the dissenting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member calling for no change on 17 March 2022.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia: Stressing patience, confirming plausibility

At their first monetary policy meeting of 2022, the RBA acknowledged that the economy “remains resilient” despite the recent Omicron outbreak which has not derailed the recovery.

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A surprise, pre-emptive policy hike by the Monetary Authority of Singapore

Singapore’s de-facto central bank hiked the slope of the S$NEER policy band, increasing the pace of appreciation. The unexpected hike was triggered by the strong inflation uptrend in recent days as well as a reassessment of Singapore’s growth and inflation expectations in 2022 by the MAS.

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A “close call” on the BOE’s laboured path to higher rates

The Bank of England (BoE) defied market expectations for a rate hike as they left the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.1% and maintained total target of asset purchases at GBP 895 billion. The deferred hike means no immediate respite to ultra-low sterling yields, although further interest rate volatility is likely; investors should consider maintaining a disciplined approach to cash investment and segmentation.

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RBA Tentative Tapering

The RBA announced its first tentative step towards tapering and eventual policy normalization.

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EYE ON THE MARKET

Not That 70's Show

Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets

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New York, Just Like I Pictured It

A comparison of NYC to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness.

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What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World

I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. The bottom line: a large language model can process reams of text very efficiently, and that’s what it’s made for. But it cannot think or reason; it’s just something I paid for. Upfront, a few comments on oil prices.

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The Rasputin Effect: Global resilience to higher rates

Global Resilience to higher rates

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Mr. Toad's Wild Ride: The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs

The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs

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Letters to the Editor

Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.

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Too Long at the Fair

Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while

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Oh, The Places We Could Go

Oh, The Places We Could Go: on the US dollar, reserve currencies and the South China Morning Post

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Frankenstein's Monster

Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent convertible securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID recovery of any major city in North America.

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Eye on the Market 13th Annual Energy Paper

Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.

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Silicon Valley Bank failure

One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.

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Winter Heating

US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot

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American Gothic

The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it.

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The End of the Affair

The End of the Affair. The affair with market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. A look at a world of higher inflation, more regionalized trade and investment and more capital scarcity.

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Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck

A discussion of the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX and three rules for investors: the Gensler Rule, the Sirens Rule and the Summers Rule. Our 2023 Outlook will be released as usual on January 1st.

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Little Red Wagon

A preliminary read on midterm election results given the context of prevailing market and economic conditions.

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A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

My list of things I am thankful for this year: CH4, HR4346 and mRNA-1273. Of course, your mileage may vary.

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Reruns

Three reruns for investors. First, in almost every post-war bear market, equity declines preceded the fall in earnings, growth and employment. As a result, we’re more focused on changes in manufacturing surveys than on the other victims of a recession as a sign of the bottom. Second, Graham Allison’s rising power conflict analysis and its historical precedents come back into focus with the latest US policies cutting off high performance semiconductor exports to China. Third, another press article on a small country as a prototype for a renewable future that does not address its irrelevance for larger developed or developing economies.

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Arrested Development

Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much greater probability of recession now, the credit markets are just getting started. One canary in the coal mine: the Citrix financing, which will be followed by a string of even weaker credits. On labor markets, the Fed is facing the tightest labor supply conditions in decades. Can second chance policies easing the path to employment for people with criminal arrest records help increase the labor supply, or will the Fed have to crush the economy to restore desired levels of wage and price inflation? Lastly, an update on bivalent vaccines and inhalable vaccines, as the latter offers the best chance of actually reducing infection and transmission.

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On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the US natural gas industry. And finally, will all the new IRS agents really stick to auditing taxpayers above $400k? Data from the GAO suggests there may not be enough of them to meet the Administration’s revenue targets.

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Dude, Where’s My Stuff?

The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. A close look at some very anomalous charts on shipping, semiconductors, inventories, labor shortages, foreclosures and mortality.

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Your Fall 2021 syllabus

Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology BI66 “The Origins of COVID” has been cancelled until further notice.

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Red Med Redemption

Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US economic recovery update, and big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth at a time of rising anti-trust enforcement. We conclude with a new “Investor Odds & Ends” section that covers NYC hotel/office markets and possible changes in personal, corporate and international tax rates.

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Thy Brother’s Keeper

COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).

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Food Fight: 2021 private equity update

Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this outperformance narrowed as all markets benefit from non-stop monetary and fiscal stimulus, and as private equity acquisition multiples rise. We examine manager dispersion, benchmarks, co-investing, GP-led secondary funds, the torrid pace of industry fundraising and manager fees in this year’s piece.

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Election 2020 - Praying for Time

The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

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The Needle and the Damage Done

The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in voting by the President and Attorney General

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The Bounce

The US recovery; The flood of money and market returns; Globalization lives; Reducing COVID mortality through vascular treatments; Realistic timetables for never-been-done before vaccines; Sweden’s COVID experiment is not what you think

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The Day After

Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer with real time data as a function of infection levels and state policy. Additional topics: no evidence yet of material second waves of COVID infection, and a round-up of the latest news on vaccine trials (Moderna, Oxford, Sinovac) and anticoagulants.

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Zoom Room

In this week’s Eye on the Market, we review topics from our recent client Zoom calls. Topics include: risk of inflation, second waves of infection, the effectiveness of lockdowns and Biden’s taxation and spending agenda.

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Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earnings haves and have-nots; regional equity performance (Europe loses again) and leveraged loans at a time of rising bankruptcies.

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State's Rights

In this week’s note, we discuss the latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.

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Are we there yet?

Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet?

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COVID and culture

In this week's note, we take a close look at country and regional virus data, and examine the pitfalls of over-extrapolating trends that often reverse.

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The equity rally and herd immunity

After the equity rally, P/E multiples are back at around 16x 2021 consensus earnings.

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Man vs Nature Part II

Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.

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Man vs Nature: what the government can and cannot fix

There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can't.

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John Stuart Mill and the road from ruin to recovery

There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.

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The pandemic gap

A lot of data is being made available on the coronavirus, but most of it requires careful analysis before drawing conclusions.

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Berning Man

Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago?

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COVID-19 update

A Coronavirus update: severity, consequences and implications for investors.

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Millions and Trillions

Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.

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Rotten Tomatoes

Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point. A brief note on what happened, and the alternatives.

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Ghosts of Christmas Past

After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.

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War of the Worlds

How a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper.

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The Armageddonists

While recessions and bear markets are a fact of life, something peculiar happened after the Global Financial Crisis: the rise of the Armageddonists.

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Warren Peace

A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.

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Active Management and QE-distorted markets

Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers and discusses the challenges they face.

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Cold Turkey

A brief comment on a proposal from leading Presidential candidates to ban hydraulic fracturing everywhere, immediately.

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So long Yellow Brick Road

It was a long, hot summer at the Heritage Foundation. An update from the front lines of the Trade War.

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Lost in Space: The Search for Democratic Socialism in the Real World

Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.

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Listen when people tell you who they are

Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.

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Smoot Hardly

The US-China trade war, prescription drug price legislation and the 2020 election.

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Energy Outlook 2019: Mountains and Molehills

Topics: unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal; overview of the world’s decarbonization challenges; Germany’s energy transition; Trump’s War on Science.

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MARKET UPDATES

Is there a risk of another energy crisis in Europe?

Volatile gas prices remain a challenge for Europe. Find out how energy costs may influence the European economy in the months ahead.

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Beyond the pause: What happens after peak rates?

A likely pause in the US hiking cycle is now approaching. See how the peak in rates has impacted equity and bond markets in the past.

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Sustainability and portfolio returns

Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.

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India’s appeal to investors

This paper, written by Tai Hui and Tilmann Galler, discusses the outlook for India equities and the investment implications.

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European stocks deserve more attention

Europe has made structural improvements and we think investors should sit up and take notice.

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What happens if the US breaches the debt ceiling?

Global Market Strategists Meera Pandit and Max McKechnie explain the implications of a potential failure of US debt ceiling negotiations.

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The changing shape of Europe’s energy transition

Accelerating efforts to achieve a green and secure energy supply are having an impact on the economy and markets.

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The advantage of high dividend stocks in a stagflationary environment

Explore how dividend paying stocks can help build portfolio resilience against the prospects of high inflation and recession.

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Answers to the key questions raised by the recent stress in the banking sector

Amid ongoing market volatility, the Market Insights team answers the key questions raised by the recent stress in the US and European banking sectors.

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Green bonds: Is doing good compatible with doing well in fixed income?

Green bonds are attractive instruments for working towards positive environmental benefits. Find out why demand for green bonds from investors is expected to continue to grow.

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Marking the bottom of the Chinese economic cycle

This paper discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy with an update on latest GDP number and the COVID-19 situation.

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The impact of higher interest rates on housing and consumers

Learn whether rising interest rates could cause a housing market crash and what it means for consumers.

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Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world

Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.

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A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

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The European Central Bank aims to ‘thread the needle’

The leader of the European Central Bank (ECB) has become very familiar with the challenge of ‘threading the needle’ in recent years and the test facing Christine Lagarde today was no different.

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The ECB unveils targeted measures and passes the baton

The ECB announced measures to cushion the COVID-19 financial shock, but stopped short of cutting rates. All eyes are now on governments for a fiscal response.

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UK monetary and fiscal stimulus – Unprecedented shock, unprecedented response

The UK’s coordinated monetary and fiscal response to the COVID-19 outbreak is unprecedented.

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Changing of Lagarde, but toolkit challenges remain

The European Central Bank (ECB) made no changes to its key interest rates, asset purchases and forward guidance and is unlikely to make any changes in the coming months.

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