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Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2025

 

 

Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2025

Stable foundations for an unstable world

The volatility experienced in the first half of the year is likely to persist as markets continue to play a crucial role in guiding the US administration towards sensible, amicable policy. We consider stable strategies that will help investors thrive in these unstable times.
 

Explore the Mid-Year Investment Outlook

 

The Weekly Brief
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Our flagship Insights

Guide to the Markets

The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

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Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

Discover J.P. Morgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, drawing on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide.

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Guide to Alternatives

Get insights on macro topics such as manager dispersion, while also diving into real estate, private credit, private equity and hedge funds and more.

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Market Commentary

UK Budget 2025: What to Expect from the Chancellor’s Fiscal Plans

Explore how the UK Chancellor must weigh tax increases against spending cuts to resolve a fiscal shortfall.

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A weak UK economy is not a headwind for UK large caps

Explore how UK large-cap stocks remain a smart portfolio choice, thanks to international revenue streams, high dividend yields, and supportive policy trends.

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The cost of holding cash in a volatile market

Is cash really king in today's volatile market? Discover why a diversified portfolio might be a smarter investment choice.

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Understanding small cap valuations

Understand the drivers of small cap stock valuations and find out why small cap investing could offer attractive opportunities for long-term investors.

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US tariffs: What to do and what not to do

Explore the potential impact of US tariffs on global markets, and learn how to build more resilient portfolios that can protect against varied risks and capitalise on opportunities amid the current economic uncertainty. Updated weekly.

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A new path for the US dollar

Explore the factors behind the US dollar's recent peak valuation, find out why the dollar is expected to decline gradually from here, and discover strategies for managing currency exposures amid evolving economic and trade dynamics.

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Rethinking equity income in volatile markets

Find out how regional diversification and income strategies—from the income available from dividend-paying stocks, or the additional income provided by premiums from covered call options—could help investors maintain a more defensive equity market exposure in the current volatile market environment.

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A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

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Understanding the shifting risks of passive investing

Discover the risks of passive investing in today’s shifting economic and political tides, and how they influence portfolio returns.

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How to invest in an age of tariffs and growing trade tensions

Find out how US tariffs may impact markets and learn strategies for investing during rising trade tensions. Explore inflation risks, market dynamics and the potential investment implications

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Japan is changing – opportunities and risks for equity investors

Japanese equities are in the spotlight, but investors should be mindful of the risks as well as the opportunities

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Sustainability and portfolio returns

Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.

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Featured Portfolio Insights

Global Asset Allocation Views 4Q 2025

U.S. and global growth look to be resilient in 2026. Our pro-risk tilt in portfolios is expressed through equities, while tight spreads keep us near neutral in credit. Big tech continues to lead in earnings and cash flow generation. We anticipate a weaker dollar and steeper yield curves.

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Factor Views 3Q 2025

Factors fell slightly in a quarter of policy whiplash. Regions diverged: International equity factors gained while U.S. equity factors fell. Equity value is becoming more attractive globally, and we like relative value-oriented macro factors.

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Global Fixed income views 4Q 2025

Amid strong corporate balance sheets and global fiscal expansion, the U.S. is likely to avoid recession, although growth may slow. We approve Federal Reserve policymakers’ pause, given current uncertainties. We favor non-U.S. exposures, emerging market debt, AT1 securities and securitized credit.

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Emerging Market Debt Quarterly Strategy

Our quarterly EMD strategy report assesses the latest economic developments in emerging markets and sets out our base case scenario for the asset class.

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Global Equity Views 4Q 2025

Profits seem to be accelerating and 2026 looks solid. Many of our investors have become somewhat more cautious. We suggest diversifying from recent winners and focusing strongly on quality stocks, especially in the small cap space.

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