The Weekly Brief
15-04-2024
Thought of the week
The hope for many investors was that March’s inflation numbers would confirm January and February’s hotter prints as seasonal noise rather than the start of a new trend. Unfortunately, continued labour market normalisation isn’t yet feeding through into cooler inflation. While there is some argument about how distorted the numbers are by quirks in certain sectors, the over-arching picture is one of a US economy that is still running hot. After the change of tone that started at the Fed’s December meeting, pressure on Chairman Powell to match words with actions has been building. However, with both growth and inflation remaining firm, it’s clear that rate cuts, when they come, will be modest in overall magnitude.
March’s inflation print turns up the heat on the Fed
US inflation, % change year on year
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