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The data reaffirm our base case view of moderating growth and cooling inflation. We overweight equities and credit and underweight duration. In equities we favor the U.S. and rotate our most preferred cyclical region from Japan to Europe. Positive stock-bond correlation may decline modestly but will likely persist.
Despite mixed data and the rarity of soft landings, the Fed may have engineered one. Our base case: 70% probability of Sub Trend Growth. An economy gliding to trend growth, and 2% inflation, have always been good for credit risk. This time should be no exception.
Before the recent setback in markets, higher valuations and a narrow market in the U.S. had made our investors more cautious on the outlook. Profits remain healthy but forecasts for further gains in 2025 look aggressive.
Factors delivered a solid quarter, moving to their own beat as Magnificent 6 stocks surged. Equity momentum led; other factors diverged across regions, sectors and individual factors. Factors continue to offer a range of opportunities.