Insights

Market Insights

Our Market Insights programme is designed to empower investors to make better investment decisions.

The Guide to the Markets illustrates market and economic trends using compelling charts. The Weekly Brief provides summaries of recent market movements and economic developments; and On the Minds of Investors gives you our views on the questions that are top of mind.

Introducing the Q4 2019 Guide

Vincent Juvyns, Global Market Strategist, previews this quarter's themes and invites you to use the Guide to help navigate the investment landscape.

Download the Guide to the Markets

Portfolio Insights

Commentary, strategic perspectives and in-depth analysis from our investment teams to help guide your portfolio decisions.

Global Asset Allocation Views Q4 2019

Weakness in global trade and manufacturing dampen the global growth outlook. We keep a modest underweight to stocks, trim credit back to neutral given a deterioration in corporate fundamentals, and maintain a small overweight to USD cash.

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Global Fixed Income Views Q4 2019

We doubled Recession probability to 40%, lowering Above Trend Growth from 25% to 10% and Sub Trend Growth from 45% to 40%. We favor: 10- and 30-yr Treasuries, short- and intermediate-term investment grade corporates and selected securitized instruments.

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Global Equity Views Q3 2019

After a strong first half, we are a little cautious, but see no reason to move aggressively away from equity exposure. Many defensive stocks are richly priced, we see opportunity in out-of-favor value, and we continue to monitor trade tensions.

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Emerging Market Equity Views Q2 2019

While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding, and expected returns are above average.

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Emerging Market Debt Strategy Q3 2019

We expect continued solid returns for emerging market debt (EMD) over the next six to 12 months, driven by healthy fundamentals, a supportive net issuance level and attractive valuations.

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Factor Views Q3 2019

Factor performance was negative, on balance. Equity momentum gained, but event-driven factors were mixed and whipsawing commodities markets challenged macro factors. Looking ahead, we are most bullish about the prospects for the value factor.

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Introducing the Q4 2019 Guide

Portfolio Insights

Global Asset Allocation Views Q4 2019

Global Fixed Income Views Q4 2019

Global Equity Views Q3 2019

Emerging Market Equity Views Q2 2019

Emerging Market Debt Strategy Q3 2019

Factor Views Q3 2019