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    1. Global Fixed Income Blog

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    Global Fixed Income Blog

    Perspectives from our Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Group

     

     

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    • Global Fixed Income Quarterly Views
    • Weekly Bond Bulletin

    Insights

    Latest Economic Outlook Monetary Policy Rates Eurozone Emerging Markets APAC
    Latest

    Turbocharged QT? Dusting off the Three Phases Model

    The Three Phases Model guides positioning for Quantitative Tightening, but with some new monetary quirks. Risk-off with simultaneously rising yields might not persist much longer.

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    FOMC Statement: May 2022

    The FOMC voted to raise the Fed Funds rate by 50 bps to a target range of 0.75%-1.00%. The Committee also confirmed the start of the quantitative easing (QT) program beginning in June.

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    Currency winners and losers of the commodity price squeeze

    When reviewing the impact of the rises in commodity prices on currency markets some clear winners and losers emerge.

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    EM Corporate ratings are more stable than DM: Fitch

    Recent research shows EM corporate bond ratings are both more stable and less likely to default than their developed market peers. That may surprise some skeptics.

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    Corporate Fundamentals: Living in interesting times

    Despite inflationary headwinds and geopolitical concerns, corporate fundamentals remain healthy.

    Read more

    Out of gas

    The desire for natural gas has led the US and EU to boost LNG supplies to European Nations

    Read more

    FOMC Statement: March 2022

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find out latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.

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    To Hike or Not To Hike?

    Exploring how an unprecedented commodities shock might affect central bank policies across the globe.

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    Municipal Credit: Weathering the Storm

    March is the kick-off month for climate-related events and we expect muni credit to again be resilient. Yet, as seen last year, these events have increased in both frequency and cost.

    Read more

    Terminal Rates in Limbo: How High Can We Go?

    With central banks on the move, in this blog, we explore the reasons why the terminal rate may be higher or lower in this cycle.

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    Central banks are on the move

    Central banks have opted to tighten monetary policy in the face of inflationary pressure causing higher volatility in IG credit markets.

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    Agency MBS: Choppy Waters Ahead

    MBS enters 2022 with a deteriorating technical backdrop alongside poor fundamentals, all of which, should result in choppy waters ahead for the sector.

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    Credit Factors: Strong Performance in Turbulent Times

    Global high yield credit factors had their strongest quarterly outperformance since the global financial crisis despite geopolitical tensions and inflationary headwinds.

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    Short Duration European High Yield Bonds - A timely Fixed Income Solution

    With investors concerned about a rising rate environment and the potential drag this can have on bond returns, short duration European high yield bonds pose a viable solution.

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    FOMC: January 2022

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. Rates team.

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    The Fed's Control

    The Fed controls every aspect of money (cost, supply and distribution) and while there is still plenty of it today, with great power comes great responsibility.

    Read more

    5 Realistic Surprise Predictions for 2022

    What does 2022 have in store for fixed income markets? Read on as Bob Michele & Kelsey Berro shares 5 realistic predictions for the New Year.

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    Corporate Fundamentals: Where do we go from here?

    While moderating somewhat over the last quarter, the overall pace of improvement in corporate health in the last eighteen months is nothing short of remarkable. Overall, we expect fundamentals to stabilize in 2022.

    Read more

    2021 Annual Bond Market Awards

    Back by popular demand, we present Bob Michele's annual "Bond Market Awards" - including central banker of the year, villain in a leading role, rookie of the year, MVP, bond of the year and more!

    Read more

    FOMC: December 2021

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. Rates team.

    Read more

    EMD ESG Issuance – The sustainability (r)evolution

    ESG labelled issuance has become mainstream in EMD with a record year in 2021. We review the main trends and future expectations behind this ‘new normal’.

    Read more

    Hot Commodities

    Following a volatile 2021, we examine the 2022 outlook for Oil, Iron Ore, Copper, and Aluminum.

    Read more

    Inflation in Asia Pacific - A different phenomenon

    Rising inflation concerns are amplifying developed market rate hike expectations; in contrast APAC central banks have benefitted from more muted CPI. The rationale for this difference has important implications for investors.

    Read more

    Bankruptcy Remote or On Thin Ice?

    Securitizations are based on having assets protected from the potential bankruptcy proceedings of the seller of those assets. No bankruptcy remoteness is like trying to skate with dull blades.

    Read more

    No Time To Wait: Bank of England

    Why should the UK expect to see rate hikes earlier than other major developed markets? Why is this period different to 2011, when inflation overshot but the BoE remained on hold?

    Read more

    Investing Alongside the U.S. Consumer

    Strong household balance sheets are leaving the U.S. consumer in great shape compared to historical standards. In this blog, we explore what that means for investors.

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    Evergrande and Chinese Real Estate: From no way home to homecoming

    While the headlines of Evergrande have somewhat subsided, risks and uncertainty continue to linger on. In this blog, we summarize the most recent developments.

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    Ahead of the curve? The case for (some) emerging market local currency exposure

    With inflation set to moderate next year in both EMEA and Latin America, we see value in a number of local curves that currently embed higher levels of risk premium. As we approach 2022, we think our space is getting more interesting.

    Read more

    Justifying High Yield Valuations

    High Yield has been a favorite sector at the GFICC Investment Quarterly (IQ) meeting for three consecutive quarters despite valuations seemingly expensive. In this blog, we identify three reasons why High Yield remains attractive.

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    Synopsis of Corporate Fundamentals from IG Investment Quarterly: Enjoying the Ride

    Subsequent to the recent GFICC (IQ) meeting, we highlight key areas fixed income investors should take notice in the Investment Grade Credit space.

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    FOMC Statement: September 2021

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. Rates team.

    Read more

    Corporate Fundamentals: The recovery continues

    Corporate health continues to improve with upgrades outpacing downgrades. Despite renewed focus on shareholder-friendly actions and the resultant potential for idiosyncratic risk, we remain constructive on the outlook for corporate health.

    Read more

    Sugar High: Part 3

    With 4 more months of data in hand, our final blog of the Sugar High trilogy takes a look at how the labor and inflation markets have progressed leading up to the Fed’s eventual taper.

    Read more

    FOMC Statement: July 2021

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. Rates team.

    Read more

    The race is on for global strategic dominance

    There is chatter in markets that Chinese policy is turning hawkish and that growth may slow markedly as a result. We disagree. In our view, Chinese policy is being adjusted, reflecting medium run priorities in a way that should not result in the feared growth downside.

    Read more

    EM Corporates: Emissions in Focus

    Sectoral composition and a small number of credits explain much of the difference in CEMBI's carbon intensity vs. other fixed income asset classes.

    Read more

    IG Credit: Navigating a rising inflation environment

    Investment Grade Credit markets look well positioned to withstand higher inflation but there is divergence beneath the surface

    Read more

    Muni Credit: How Would You Spend $195 billion?

    An unprecedented $195 billion in funding from the American Rescue Plan Act positions U.S. states to contribute to the economic recovery, mend balance sheets, and offer a stabilizing credit profile.

    Read more

    FOMC Statement: June 2021

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. Rates team.

    Read more

    ‘Long’ time coming

    Liability-aware and yield-seeking investors should pay close attention to changes in the market’s micro-structure to find potential hedging and income opportunities

    Read more

    2021: Approaching Half Time

    Over the last five months, positive growth and inflation data coupled with the risk of tighter future monetary policy created headwinds for fixed income investors. Some sectors within the universe, however, were better positioned.

    Read more

    Where to find credit when credit is due?

    In today’s market environment, a multi-sector approach to credit can help investors capture the remaining upside of the market while smoothing downside risks.

    Read more

    Sugar High: Part 2

    Following another month of jobs and inflation data, we revisit our last blog, “Sugar High”, and reflect on the recent price action in the US rates markets.

    Read more

    Multiple reasons for multi-family

    The agency CMBS market offers an attractive way for fixed income investors to access one of the more resilient sectors of the commercial real estate market.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    2020 Annual Bond Market Awards

    Back by popular demand, we present Bob Michele's annual "Bond Market Awards" - including central banker of the year, villain in a leading role, rookie of the year, MVP, bond of the year and more! 

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    'Blue ripple' and the USD outlook

    The ‘Blue wave’ the market had prepared for now appears to be more of a ‘Blue ripple’ and currency markets are adjusting to a different political outlook.

    Read more

    Add extra guacamole for a dollar!

    Emerging Markets Local Currency debt emerged as one of our best ideas at our most recent investment quarterly meeting. This isn't just about the US Dollar; we like what we see in local EM.

    Read more

    Is there green in the graying baby boomers? Why we like non-profit tax-exempt senior living bonds

    At our recent IQ meeting, we concluded municipal high yield was one of our best ideas. In this piece we take a deep dive into one of the more opportunistic sectors in the tax-exempt market.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    Emerging Markets: Don’t Fight the Central Banks

    The opportunity cost of not investing in EM debt remains very high. Most importantly the same applies for the rest of fixed income: don’t fight the central banks.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    A Road to Recovery

    In response to Europe’s biggest growth shock in a generation the EU council agreed on the outline of the “Recovery Fund” to help cushion the economic fallout from the pandemic.

    Read more

    A new era for alpha generation in local emerging markets?

    The global savings glut has been driving asset price valuations for the last decade or so. Emerging Markets and investors need to prepare for a potential new world.

    Read more

    Will a “Blue Wave” carry UBI onto the shore?

    The potential outcomes of the U.S. elections could usher in more than just higher taxes.

    Read more

    CLOs: not the CDOs of yore

    Recent headlines have compared today’s CLO market to the subprime mortgage market of old; we do not believe CLOs pose system risks to the financial system.

    Read more

    China’s Interest Rate Pivot

    While China’s post-Covid-19 economic data is showing signs of normalization, the government’s focus on stability will have significant implications for monetary policy and interest rates

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    Emerging Markets: From Beta to Value

    Investors fled emerging markets ahead of the pandemic, but are now slowly returning. We expect a gradual economic recovery to continue to support returns, and seek to rotate into select beta.

    Read more

    Confirmation, Conflict, Hope

    Top of mind insights from our Global CIO

    Read more

    The United States of COVID

    Now that the US has entered the beginning stages of the reopening process, we discuss the speed in which the US economy can rebound with a focus on systemically important States and politics.

    Read more

    COVID-19 era: addressing top investor questions

    COVID-19 uncertainties abound. With the help of the team, Andrew tries to tease out a macro view through answering vexing questions.

    Read more

    Treasury’s 20-20 vision

    Next week the Treasury will re-introduce 20-year bond issuance as they look to manage increasing borrowing needs and capitalize on growing demand for long bonds by LDI investors.

    Read more

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    Bios

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    A longer road back for corporates

    Liquidity provision doesn’t remedy a weak outlook for corporate fundamentals. Thoughtful sector and security selection is needed to navigate the minefield ahead.

    Read more

    Monetary financing – crossing the line?

    We expect bond markets to remain sanguine about the shift to unprecedented monetary financing until there are signs that the economy is emerging from the downturn.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    Is the Bond Market Dead?

    The bond market isn’t dead, but to deliver a reasonable return we need to balance the safety of co-investment alongside central banks with the opportunistic hunt for higher yield and return.

    Read more

    Challenges in EM during current pandemic

    EM valuations reflect much of the outlook ahead, but the uncertain COVID-19 impact remains a downside risk. As such, we remain defensive, favoring EM investment-grade credit.

    Read more

    Where will the cash go?

    With the appearance of COVID-19 and the extreme market sell-off in risky assets, in the space of 3 months investors have aggressively been buying money market funds.

    Read more

    The PBoC – Rate Cuts and Policy Clarification

    The Peoples Bank of China recent policy actions help address the concerns that its policy response was lagging the aggressive actions taken by other central banks.

    Read more

    Emerging Markets Debt – Time to Buy?

    The last four weeks have created deep value and at current levels EM IG offers an attractive alternative with less credit risk and the prospect of double-digit returns.

    Read more

    What is next for US Inflation?

    Given the dramatic shift in the global economic outlook as a result of COVID-19, US inflation will slow but the market may be too pessimistic.

    Read more

    Thou Shalt Fund….and Shalt Not Fail

    As the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act emerged from on high in the Senate, it became clear to me what this meant for fixed income investors.

    Read more

    High Yield Valuations in the Age of Coronavirus

    As all asset classes have repriced over the past few weeks, the Global High Yield Team believes looking at leveraged credit valuations in the context of historical bear markets can provide actionable insights for investors.

    Read more

    The week the bond market broke, and the week everyone put It back together

    The bond market was broken, but policy makers and market leaders worked around the globe to fix the system.

    Read more

    Getting the market back on its feet

    Market functionality needs to be restored no matter how anyone feels about the methods it may take to get there. If the current market conditions persist, the consequences may be severe.

    Read more

    Waiting it out. . .

    Volatility across markets has created considerable anxiety amongst investors trying to gauge the effectiveness of global response from healthcare, monetary and fiscal policy. Given how varied the responses are, this may be an unsolvable riddle over the near term

    Read more

    Emerging Market Investment Grade: Market Well Held

    With markets down across the globe, we are writing to tell you that EMD has not delivered a homogenous drawdown. Instead, there has been a resilience in our arena that is worthy of comment.

    Read more

    If you give a mouse a cookie…

    The Fed’s emergency cut significantly increased the odds of returning to the zero-lower bound in 2020.

    Read more

    Shock, crisis, rinse, repeat

    We’ve seen Fed rate cuts before, during the 2008 crisis—this one removes a question mark for the economy.  Now small businesses also need support.

    Read more

    Make the Fed Cut Again

    While no one knows for certain what 2020 or 2022 will bring to the White House and the Fed, staffing changes and increasing political pressure within the Fed is a near-certainty.

    Read more

    Singapore Dollar – no longer defying gravity

    The Singapore Dollar is no longer defying gravity – we discuss why and the implications for cash investors.

    Read more

    Key macro risks for bond portfolios in 2020

    We assess the key macro risks investors should be thinking about in 2020 and their potential impact on global bond portfolios.

    Read more

    The ECB's strategy review: Actions speak louder than words

    With the ECB quickly running out of tools and inflation still some way from their current target, the market will be keen to hear what comes next.

    Read more

    The current evolution of the mortgage market

    Bubble alert? Not so fast, mortgage credit availability has slowly emerged from extinction. Read our insights on the current evolution of the mortgage market.

    Read more

    Taxable munis in 2020: Opportunity knocks

    The taxable municipal market is expected to see a spike in supply and more diversified issuance. We explore the potential opportunity for investors.

    Read more

    5 realistic surprise predictions for 2020

    Our team puts forth predictions around fixed income market returns, Treasury yields, gold and the U.S. presidential elections.

    Read more

    2019 annual bond market awards

    We present our bond market awards for 2019 - including central banker of the year, villain in a leading role, rookie of the year, MVP, lifetime achievement award and more.

    Read more

    PBOC: small move, strong signal

    We look at why the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) made its recent and notable dovish pivot and its implications for investors

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    Emerging markets debt: stronger than it’s ever been

    In our view, emerging markets debt deserves the positive attention it has been receiving in an era of central bank interference and global hunt for yield.

    Read more

    Fun in funding land

    We think the Fed’s actions have assuaged some concerns about short-term funding but risks still remain.

    Read more

    The forest and the trees

    When constantly watching financial markets and following the 24-7 news flow, it can be easy to get caught up in the trees and miss the forest.

    Read more

    Chinese property - a paradigm shift

    Chinese property is one of the largest sectors in the Asia high yield bond universe, and is often considered as one of the “safer” sectors by investors.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's recent announcement to cut rates, we discuss our views on the meeting and our outlook on monetary policy.

    Read more

    Pension and insurance strategies: when traditional measures fail to capture the risk for income focused portfolios

    Clients look to income focused strategies to meet their objectives, but traditional metrics of risk may not be appropriate for income focused strategies.

    Read more

    Emerging markets and the negative yield conundrum for fixed income investors

    Record low bond yields pose a major problem for fixed income investors. We explore why taking active FX risk can be a solution for investors.

    Read more

    RBA: uncharted territory for unattainable goals

    The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its overnight rate to a new record low - leaving the RBA in uncharted territory.

    Read more

    Negative rates – how low can you go?

    It seems the global financial system has gone crazy as rates continue to fall further negative. We review why and the impacts it has on the market.

    Read more

    Silver bullets are not magnetic

    I explain why a whatever-it-takes policy approach is not a silver bullet and will eventually lead to pain.

    Read more

    No longer “why” but “how”: the case for emerging markets debt matures

    In a world where real yield is increasingly scarce, it is our view, emerging markets debt deserves a larger role in a global fixed income portfolio.

    Read more

    Watch the lag: thoughts on core CPI (part 2 – an update)

    We analyze which economic indicators the Fed should pay attention to and which ones are false alarms.

    Read more

    Passing the baton to fiscal

    ECB governors are agreement that it's time for fiscal policy to now take the baton from monetary policy as the main instrument to stimulate the economy.

    Read more

    Trading the thrill of the ECB chase

    We review July's ECB monetary policy and determine the impacts on the ECB and the Eurozone.

    Read more

    What does the bond market know that the stock market doesn’t?

    Why is the stock market at near all-time highs, while the bond market is signaling recession?

    Read more

    “Technically” speaking the US high yield market has strong price support

    Even as markets price in recession risk, we look at how the technicals in the high yield market is as important as solid fundamentals in the short term.

    Read more

    EM central banks – the case for an asymmetrical beta to the fed

    EM Central Banks have a relatively high beta to Fed policy rates. We believe EM Central Banks will deliver a significant cutting cycle across most countries.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Looking beyond the disappointing press conference, we believe the FOMC is employing a proactive risk management approach as opposed to a reactionary policy.

    Read more

    10 year US treasury yields are headed to 0%?

    The central banks must take the lead, and it must start this month. They must bring front end real yields so low, so fast that the yield curve steepens.

    Read more

    Summertime state of play for the central banks

    If central bankers can engineer another dovish course correction which prolongs the global economic expansion in real terms, it will be a job well done. 

    Read more

    Narrative whipsaw

    We see many different narratives driving markets, and we address the impact of a binary change in the short-term outlook for growth and financial asset prices.

    Read more

    Introducing ‘GAMP’ – generally accepted monetary principles

    What seemed like unconventional and bizarre monetary policies in the immediate post-crisis world, have come to look generally accepted, if not pedestrian.

    Read more

    Moore rate cuts or a world of Cain?

    President Trump has been presented with the opportunity to make a profound impact on the Federal Reserve.

    Read more

    MMT: short-term gain vs. long-term pain

    Why is everyone is talking about Modern Monetary Theory?

    Read more

    Talking about ending QT is not the same as doing it

    The market got a dose of what no-QT feels like, but now in March, the reality of $50 billion per month of liquidity withdrawal is likely to return.

    Read more

    Near-term views and the three phases endgame

    With the benefit of hindsight, we can summarize the past year in markets with a pretty tight fit to almost two complete cycles through the Three Phases.

    Read more

    5 realistic surprise predictions for 2019

    Our team puts forth predictions around the yield curve, US high yield returns, 10-year Treasuries, the US dollar and oil.

    Read more

    2018 annual bond market awards

    We highlight our awards—including corporate bond of the year, currency of the year, comeback player of the year, unsung hero, MVP and more.

    Read more

    The dovish course correction (ish)

    According to the roadmap I’ve described all year, a dovish lean into tight financial conditions should be cause for a significant relief rally in risk assets.

    Read more

    Off message

    We recap macro and policy evolution, and then shoehorn it into the Three Phases Model to get a near-term outlook for further market performance.

    Read more

    Potential pathways for higher yields

    Intuition, math, the increase in Treasury supply from the budget deficit and Quantitative Tightening, it feels weird that Treasury yields aren’t higher.

    Read more

    Three phases update and assessment

    A lot has happened since my last dispatch on the Three Phases Model. I’ll detail where I think we are in its evolution.

    Read more

    The case for leveraged loans

    We take a in-depth look at the leverage loan market.

    Read more

    IOER – does the latest fed move have any practical implications for cash investors?

    The Fed’s interest on excess reserves (IOER) shot to prominence following an unprecedented adjustment by the central bank. We explore its impact on investors.

    Read more

    More sea shells please: assessing early signs of liquidity withdrawal

    We look at three charts which are seemingly unrelated, but we think each represent early signs of the impact of US monetary tightening.

    Read more

    The miraculous japanese labour force

    Japan suffers from labor shortages and the working population is no longer growing. So how is it possible the economy just added the most number of jobs on record?

    Read more

    Examining offshore dollar liquidity in light of the three phases model

    We focused on global central banks’ withdrawal of liquidity as the primary market driver. Now, we look more closely at USD liquidity from an offshore perspective.

    Read more

    Approaching the first intermission

    Realized volatility in all asset prices should continue to be elevated as markets adjust in fits and starts to the new reality of liquidity removal.

    Read more

    China’s $3 trillion bond index inclusion

    We review how the inclusion of China onshore government bonds in the Global Aggregate Index impacts the market.

    Read more

    The shadow productivity escape hatch

    When an economy reaches full employment, productivity growth must then also occur to lift potential, otherwise inflation pressure builds. Where are we now?

    Read more

    Key risk scenarios for bond portfolios in 2018

    We outline the key risk scenarios for bond portfolios in 2018.

    Read more

    Policy reversal: a play in three acts

    Making market prognostications is always a tricky business, but we frame the debate in 3 phases, with Phase 1 an uncomfortable time.

    Read more

    2017 annual bond market awards

    From bond of the year to most valuable player to comeback player of the year, we've presented our bond market awards for 2017.

    Read more

    Stock, flow, impulse: an update

    We still believe the flow of central bank balance sheet expansion is still the dominant force driving markets, both risk markets as well as interest rates.

    Read more

    Quantitative tightening: many moving parts

    Here we take a closer look the Fed’s balance sheet activity to show the interactions, and take a view on how QT unfolds.

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    What is R-star and is it rising?

    Here we discuss what R-star or the real neutral rate of interest is and how it affects central banks and their ability to determine and explain policy.

    Read more

    A “structural reform” for the kids

    We revisit a different structural reform proposal and expand on it with three key charts from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

    Read more

    Stock, flow or impulse?

    Neither economic data nor the chaotic news cycle is the dominant force driving stock prices right now, it’s the flow of quantitative easing.

    Read more

    An inadvertent reprieve

    The Fed has tightened policy rates four times now, and financial conditions have gotten incrementally easier/looser each time. How should we interpret this?

    Read more

    Natural disintegration

    We examine how anticipated economic momentum over the near term is likely necessary to sustain the narrative, in effect to avoid the decay.

    Read more

    Printing versus burning

    My optimism at the opportunity presented to the new President has given way to more skepticism. Here are the positives and negatives.

    Read more

    The epicenter of optimism

    We share a short note to highlight one fascinating chart that in our view encapsulates the macro narrative thematically all by itself.

    Read more

    Alchemy is difficult and dangerous

    The consequences of the Border Tax seem skewed toward a mixture of known and unknown negatives, with what looks to me like only dubious potential benefits.

    Read more

    Honeymoon to hangover

    My optimism at the opportunity presented to the new President has given way to more skepticism. Here are the positives and negatives.

    Read more

    Big border tax, part 2

    Part II of the Border Tax gives an update on the deep policy discussion brewing at the intersection of corporate tax reform and US trade policy.

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    Big border tax

    There is a deep policy discussion brewing at the intersection of corporate tax reform and US trade policy. Here are two important points.

    Read more

    What are financial conditions and why do they matter?

    There are generally four components to financial conditions analysis. Learn how each in isolation influences the economy in different ways.

    Read more
    Economic Outlook

    2021: Approaching Half Time

    Over the last five months, positive growth and inflation data coupled with the risk of tighter future monetary policy created headwinds for fixed income investors. Some sectors within the universe, however, were better positioned.

    Read more

    Sugar High: Part 2

    Following another month of jobs and inflation data, we revisit our last blog, “Sugar High”, and reflect on the recent price action in the US rates markets.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    CLOs: not the CDOs of yore

    Recent headlines have compared today’s CLO market to the subprime mortgage market of old; we do not believe CLOs pose system risks to the financial system.

    Read more

    Confirmation, Conflict, Hope

    Top of mind insights from our Global CIO

    Read more

    The United States of COVID

    Now that the US has entered the beginning stages of the reopening process, we discuss the speed in which the US economy can rebound with a focus on systemically important States and politics.

    Read more

    COVID-19 era: addressing top investor questions

    COVID-19 uncertainties abound. With the help of the team, Andrew tries to tease out a macro view through answering vexing questions.

    Read more

    A longer road back for corporates

    Liquidity provision doesn’t remedy a weak outlook for corporate fundamentals. Thoughtful sector and security selection is needed to navigate the minefield ahead.

    Read more

    Monetary financing – crossing the line?

    We expect bond markets to remain sanguine about the shift to unprecedented monetary financing until there are signs that the economy is emerging from the downturn.

    Read more

    Is the Bond Market Dead?

    The bond market isn’t dead, but to deliver a reasonable return we need to balance the safety of co-investment alongside central banks with the opportunistic hunt for higher yield and return.

    Read more

    Thou Shalt Fund….and Shalt Not Fail

    As the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act emerged from on high in the Senate, it became clear to me what this meant for fixed income investors.

    Read more

    Getting the market back on its feet

    Market functionality needs to be restored no matter how anyone feels about the methods it may take to get there. If the current market conditions persist, the consequences may be severe.

    Read more

    Waiting it out. . .

    Volatility across markets has created considerable anxiety amongst investors trying to gauge the effectiveness of global response from healthcare, monetary and fiscal policy. Given how varied the responses are, this may be an unsolvable riddle over the near term

    Read more

    Key macro risks for bond portfolios in 2020

    We assess the key macro risks investors should be thinking about in 2020 and their potential impact on global bond portfolios.

    Read more

    5 realistic surprise predictions for 2020

    Our team puts forth predictions around fixed income market returns, Treasury yields, gold and the U.S. presidential elections.

    Read more

    The forest and the trees

    When constantly watching financial markets and following the 24-7 news flow, it can be easy to get caught up in the trees and miss the forest.

    Read more

    Silver bullets are not magnetic

    I explain why a whatever-it-takes policy approach is not a silver bullet and will eventually lead to pain.

    Read more

    Watch the lag: thoughts on core CPI (part 2 – an update)

    We analyze which economic indicators the Fed should pay attention to and which ones are false alarms.

    Read more

    What does the bond market know that the stock market doesn’t?

    Why is the stock market at near all-time highs, while the bond market is signaling recession?

    Read more

    10 year US treasury yields are headed to 0%?

    The central banks must take the lead, and it must start this month. They must bring front end real yields so low, so fast that the yield curve steepens.

    Read more

    Summertime state of play for the central banks

    If central bankers can engineer another dovish course correction which prolongs the global economic expansion in real terms, it will be a job well done. 

    Read more

    Narrative whipsaw

    We see many different narratives driving markets, and we address the impact of a binary change in the short-term outlook for growth and financial asset prices.

    Read more

    Talking about ending QT is not the same as doing it

    The market got a dose of what no-QT feels like, but now in March, the reality of $50 billion per month of liquidity withdrawal is likely to return.

    Read more

    Near-term views and the three phases endgame

    With the benefit of hindsight, we can summarize the past year in markets with a pretty tight fit to almost two complete cycles through the Three Phases.

    Read more

    5 realistic surprise predictions for 2019

    Our team puts forth predictions around the yield curve, US high yield returns, 10-year Treasuries, the US dollar and oil.

    Read more

    2018 annual bond market awards

    We highlight our awards—including corporate bond of the year, currency of the year, comeback player of the year, unsung hero, MVP and more.

    Read more

    The dovish course correction (ish)

    According to the roadmap I’ve described all year, a dovish lean into tight financial conditions should be cause for a significant relief rally in risk assets.

    Read more

    Off message

    We recap macro and policy evolution, and then shoehorn it into the Three Phases Model to get a near-term outlook for further market performance.

    Read more

    Potential pathways for higher yields

    Intuition, math, the increase in Treasury supply from the budget deficit and Quantitative Tightening, it feels weird that Treasury yields aren’t higher.

    Read more

    Three phases update and assessment

    A lot has happened since my last dispatch on the Three Phases Model. I’ll detail where I think we are in its evolution.

    Read more

    More sea shells please: assessing early signs of liquidity withdrawal

    We look at three charts which are seemingly unrelated, but we think each represent early signs of the impact of US monetary tightening.

    Read more

    Examining offshore dollar liquidity in light of the three phases model

    We focused on global central banks’ withdrawal of liquidity as the primary market driver. Now, we look more closely at USD liquidity from an offshore perspective.

    Read more

    Approaching the first intermission

    Realized volatility in all asset prices should continue to be elevated as markets adjust in fits and starts to the new reality of liquidity removal.

    Read more

    The shadow productivity escape hatch

    When an economy reaches full employment, productivity growth must then also occur to lift potential, otherwise inflation pressure builds. Where are we now?

    Read more

    Key risk scenarios for bond portfolios in 2018

    We outline the key risk scenarios for bond portfolios in 2018.

    Read more

    Policy reversal: a play in three acts

    Making market prognostications is always a tricky business, but we frame the debate in 3 phases, with Phase 1 an uncomfortable time.

    Read more

    2017 annual bond market awards

    From bond of the year to most valuable player to comeback player of the year, we've presented our bond market awards for 2017.

    Read more

    Stock, flow, impulse: an update

    We still believe the flow of central bank balance sheet expansion is still the dominant force driving markets, both risk markets as well as interest rates.

    Read more

    Quantitative tightening: many moving parts

    Here we take a closer look the Fed’s balance sheet activity to show the interactions, and take a view on how QT unfolds.

    Read more

    What is R-star and is it rising?

    Here we discuss what R-star or the real neutral rate of interest is and how it affects central banks and their ability to determine and explain policy.

    Read more

    Stock, flow or impulse?

    Neither economic data nor the chaotic news cycle is the dominant force driving stock prices right now, it’s the flow of quantitative easing.

    Read more

    An inadvertent reprieve

    The Fed has tightened policy rates four times now, and financial conditions have gotten incrementally easier/looser each time. How should we interpret this?

    Read more

    Natural disintegration

    We examine how anticipated economic momentum over the near term is likely necessary to sustain the narrative, in effect to avoid the decay.

    Read more

    Printing versus burning

    My optimism at the opportunity presented to the new President has given way to more skepticism. Here are the positives and negatives.

    Read more

    The epicenter of optimism

    We share a short note to highlight one fascinating chart that in our view encapsulates the macro narrative thematically all by itself.

    Read more

    Big border tax, part 2

    Part II of the Border Tax gives an update on the deep policy discussion brewing at the intersection of corporate tax reform and US trade policy.

    Read more

    What are financial conditions and why do they matter?

    There are generally four components to financial conditions analysis. Learn how each in isolation influences the economy in different ways.

    Read more
    Monetary Policy

    FOMC Statement: September 2021

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. Rates team.

    Read more

    FOMC Statement: July 2021

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. Rates team.

    Read more

    FOMC Statement: June 2021

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. Rates team.

    Read more

    Sugar High: Part 2

    Following another month of jobs and inflation data, we revisit our last blog, “Sugar High”, and reflect on the recent price action in the US rates markets.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    A Road to Recovery

    In response to Europe’s biggest growth shock in a generation the EU council agreed on the outline of the “Recovery Fund” to help cushion the economic fallout from the pandemic.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    Monetary financing – crossing the line?

    We expect bond markets to remain sanguine about the shift to unprecedented monetary financing until there are signs that the economy is emerging from the downturn.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    Thou Shalt Fund….and Shalt Not Fail

    As the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act emerged from on high in the Senate, it became clear to me what this meant for fixed income investors.

    Read more

    The week the bond market broke, and the week everyone put It back together

    The bond market was broken, but policy makers and market leaders worked around the globe to fix the system.

    Read more

    Getting the market back on its feet

    Market functionality needs to be restored no matter how anyone feels about the methods it may take to get there. If the current market conditions persist, the consequences may be severe.

    Read more

    Waiting it out. . .

    Volatility across markets has created considerable anxiety amongst investors trying to gauge the effectiveness of global response from healthcare, monetary and fiscal policy. Given how varied the responses are, this may be an unsolvable riddle over the near term

    Read more

    If you give a mouse a cookie…

    The Fed’s emergency cut significantly increased the odds of returning to the zero-lower bound in 2020.

    Read more

    Shock, crisis, rinse, repeat

    We’ve seen Fed rate cuts before, during the 2008 crisis—this one removes a question mark for the economy.  Now small businesses also need support.

    Read more

    Make the Fed Cut Again

    While no one knows for certain what 2020 or 2022 will bring to the White House and the Fed, staffing changes and increasing political pressure within the Fed is a near-certainty.

    Read more

    The ECB's strategy review: Actions speak louder than words

    With the ECB quickly running out of tools and inflation still some way from their current target, the market will be keen to hear what comes next.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    Fun in funding land

    We think the Fed’s actions have assuaged some concerns about short-term funding but risks still remain.

    Read more

    The forest and the trees

    When constantly watching financial markets and following the 24-7 news flow, it can be easy to get caught up in the trees and miss the forest.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's recent announcement to cut rates, we discuss our views on the meeting and our outlook on monetary policy.

    Read more

    RBA: uncharted territory for unattainable goals

    The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its overnight rate to a new record low - leaving the RBA in uncharted territory.

    Read more

    Negative rates – how low can you go?

    It seems the global financial system has gone crazy as rates continue to fall further negative. We review why and the impacts it has on the market.

    Read more

    Silver bullets are not magnetic

    I explain why a whatever-it-takes policy approach is not a silver bullet and will eventually lead to pain.

    Read more

    Passing the baton to fiscal

    ECB governors are agreement that it's time for fiscal policy to now take the baton from monetary policy as the main instrument to stimulate the economy.

    Read more

    Trading the thrill of the ECB chase

    We review July's ECB monetary policy and determine the impacts on the ECB and the Eurozone.

    Read more

    What does the bond market know that the stock market doesn’t?

    Why is the stock market at near all-time highs, while the bond market is signaling recession?

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Looking beyond the disappointing press conference, we believe the FOMC is employing a proactive risk management approach as opposed to a reactionary policy.

    Read more

    Summertime state of play for the central banks

    If central bankers can engineer another dovish course correction which prolongs the global economic expansion in real terms, it will be a job well done. 

    Read more

    Introducing ‘GAMP’ – generally accepted monetary principles

    What seemed like unconventional and bizarre monetary policies in the immediate post-crisis world, have come to look generally accepted, if not pedestrian.

    Read more

    Moore rate cuts or a world of Cain?

    President Trump has been presented with the opportunity to make a profound impact on the Federal Reserve.

    Read more

    MMT: short-term gain vs. long-term pain

    Why is everyone is talking about Modern Monetary Theory?

    Read more

    Talking about ending QT is not the same as doing it

    The market got a dose of what no-QT feels like, but now in March, the reality of $50 billion per month of liquidity withdrawal is likely to return.

    Read more

    Near-term views and the three phases endgame

    With the benefit of hindsight, we can summarize the past year in markets with a pretty tight fit to almost two complete cycles through the Three Phases.

    Read more

    The dovish course correction (ish)

    According to the roadmap I’ve described all year, a dovish lean into tight financial conditions should be cause for a significant relief rally in risk assets.

    Read more

    Off message

    We recap macro and policy evolution, and then shoehorn it into the Three Phases Model to get a near-term outlook for further market performance.

    Read more

    Potential pathways for higher yields

    Intuition, math, the increase in Treasury supply from the budget deficit and Quantitative Tightening, it feels weird that Treasury yields aren’t higher.

    Read more

    Three phases update and assessment

    A lot has happened since my last dispatch on the Three Phases Model. I’ll detail where I think we are in its evolution.

    Read more

    IOER – does the latest fed move have any practical implications for cash investors?

    The Fed’s interest on excess reserves (IOER) shot to prominence following an unprecedented adjustment by the central bank. We explore its impact on investors.

    Read more

    More sea shells please: assessing early signs of liquidity withdrawal

    We look at three charts which are seemingly unrelated, but we think each represent early signs of the impact of US monetary tightening.

    Read more

    Approaching the first intermission

    Realized volatility in all asset prices should continue to be elevated as markets adjust in fits and starts to the new reality of liquidity removal.

    Read more

    Policy reversal: a play in three acts

    Making market prognostications is always a tricky business, but we frame the debate in 3 phases, with Phase 1 an uncomfortable time.

    Read more

    Stock, flow, impulse: an update

    We still believe the flow of central bank balance sheet expansion is still the dominant force driving markets, both risk markets as well as interest rates.

    Read more

    Quantitative tightening: many moving parts

    Here we take a closer look the Fed’s balance sheet activity to show the interactions, and take a view on how QT unfolds.

    Read more

    What is R-star and is it rising?

    Here we discuss what R-star or the real neutral rate of interest is and how it affects central banks and their ability to determine and explain policy.

    Read more

    Stock, flow or impulse?

    Neither economic data nor the chaotic news cycle is the dominant force driving stock prices right now, it’s the flow of quantitative easing.

    Read more

    An inadvertent reprieve

    The Fed has tightened policy rates four times now, and financial conditions have gotten incrementally easier/looser each time. How should we interpret this?

    Read more

    Printing versus burning

    My optimism at the opportunity presented to the new President has given way to more skepticism. Here are the positives and negatives.

    Read more

    Honeymoon to hangover

    My optimism at the opportunity presented to the new President has given way to more skepticism. Here are the positives and negatives.

    Read more

    What are financial conditions and why do they matter?

    There are generally four components to financial conditions analysis. Learn how each in isolation influences the economy in different ways.

    Read more
    Rates

    FOMC Statement: September 2021

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. Rates team.

    Read more

    FOMC Statement: July 2021

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. Rates team.

    Read more

    FOMC Statement: June 2021

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. Rates team.

    Read more

    Sugar High: Part 2

    Following another month of jobs and inflation data, we revisit our last blog, “Sugar High”, and reflect on the recent price action in the US rates markets.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    Treasury’s 20-20 vision

    Next week the Treasury will re-introduce 20-year bond issuance as they look to manage increasing borrowing needs and capitalize on growing demand for long bonds by LDI investors.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    What is next for US Inflation?

    Given the dramatic shift in the global economic outlook as a result of COVID-19, US inflation will slow but the market may be too pessimistic.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    The forest and the trees

    When constantly watching financial markets and following the 24-7 news flow, it can be easy to get caught up in the trees and miss the forest.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's recent announcement to cut rates, we discuss our views on the meeting and our outlook on monetary policy.

    Read more

    Emerging markets and the negative yield conundrum for fixed income investors

    Record low bond yields pose a major problem for fixed income investors. We explore why taking active FX risk can be a solution for investors.

    Read more

    Negative rates – how low can you go?

    It seems the global financial system has gone crazy as rates continue to fall further negative. We review why and the impacts it has on the market.

    Read more

    Passing the baton to fiscal

    ECB governors are agreement that it's time for fiscal policy to now take the baton from monetary policy as the main instrument to stimulate the economy.

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Looking beyond the disappointing press conference, we believe the FOMC is employing a proactive risk management approach as opposed to a reactionary policy.

    Read more

    10 year US treasury yields are headed to 0%?

    The central banks must take the lead, and it must start this month. They must bring front end real yields so low, so fast that the yield curve steepens.

    Read more

    5 realistic surprise predictions for 2019

    Our team puts forth predictions around the yield curve, US high yield returns, 10-year Treasuries, the US dollar and oil.

    Read more

    Examining offshore dollar liquidity in light of the three phases model

    We focused on global central banks’ withdrawal of liquidity as the primary market driver. Now, we look more closely at USD liquidity from an offshore perspective.

    Read more

    Approaching the first intermission

    Realized volatility in all asset prices should continue to be elevated as markets adjust in fits and starts to the new reality of liquidity removal.

    Read more

    Stock, flow, impulse: an update

    We still believe the flow of central bank balance sheet expansion is still the dominant force driving markets, both risk markets as well as interest rates.

    Read more

    Quantitative tightening: many moving parts

    Here we take a closer look the Fed’s balance sheet activity to show the interactions, and take a view on how QT unfolds.

    Read more

    What is R-star and is it rising?

    Here we discuss what R-star or the real neutral rate of interest is and how it affects central banks and their ability to determine and explain policy.

    Read more

    Stock, flow or impulse?

    Neither economic data nor the chaotic news cycle is the dominant force driving stock prices right now, it’s the flow of quantitative easing.

    Read more

    An inadvertent reprieve

    The Fed has tightened policy rates four times now, and financial conditions have gotten incrementally easier/looser each time. How should we interpret this?

    Read more

    Printing versus burning

    My optimism at the opportunity presented to the new President has given way to more skepticism. Here are the positives and negatives.

    Read more

    Honeymoon to hangover

    My optimism at the opportunity presented to the new President has given way to more skepticism. Here are the positives and negatives.

    Read more

    Big border tax, part 2

    Part II of the Border Tax gives an update on the deep policy discussion brewing at the intersection of corporate tax reform and US trade policy.

    Read more

    What are financial conditions and why do they matter?

    There are generally four components to financial conditions analysis. Learn how each in isolation influences the economy in different ways.

    Read more
    Eurozone

    Trading the thrill of the ECB chase

    We review July's ECB monetary policy and determine the impacts on the ECB and the Eurozone.

    Read more

    Passing the baton to fiscal

    ECB governors are agreement that it's time for fiscal policy to now take the baton from monetary policy as the main instrument to stimulate the economy.

    Read more

    Negative rates – how low can you go?

    It seems the global financial system has gone crazy as rates continue to fall further negative. We review why and the impacts it has on the market.

    Read more

    Emerging markets and the negative yield conundrum for fixed income investors

    Record low bond yields pose a major problem for fixed income investors. We explore why taking active FX risk can be a solution for investors.

    Read more

    The ECB's strategy review: Actions speak louder than words

    With the ECB quickly running out of tools and inflation still some way from their current target, the market will be keen to hear what comes next.

    Read more

    A Road to Recovery

    In response to Europe’s biggest growth shock in a generation the EU council agreed on the outline of the “Recovery Fund” to help cushion the economic fallout from the pandemic.

    Read more
    Emerging Markets

    EM Corporates: Emissions in Focus

    Sectoral composition and a small number of credits explain much of the difference in CEMBI's carbon intensity vs. other fixed income asset classes.

    Read more

    Add extra guacamole for a dollar!

    Emerging Markets Local Currency debt emerged as one of our best ideas at our most recent investment quarterly meeting. This isn't just about the US Dollar; we like what we see in local EM.

    Read more

    Emerging Markets: Don’t Fight the Central Banks

    The opportunity cost of not investing in EM debt remains very high. Most importantly the same applies for the rest of fixed income: don’t fight the central banks.

    Read more

    A new era for alpha generation in local emerging markets?

    The global savings glut has been driving asset price valuations for the last decade or so. Emerging Markets and investors need to prepare for a potential new world.

    Read more

    Emerging Markets: From Beta to Value

    Investors fled emerging markets ahead of the pandemic, but are now slowly returning. We expect a gradual economic recovery to continue to support returns, and seek to rotate into select beta.

    Read more

    Challenges in EM during current pandemic

    EM valuations reflect much of the outlook ahead, but the uncertain COVID-19 impact remains a downside risk. As such, we remain defensive, favoring EM investment-grade credit.

    Read more

    Emerging Markets Debt – Time to Buy?

    The last four weeks have created deep value and at current levels EM IG offers an attractive alternative with less credit risk and the prospect of double-digit returns.

    Read more

    Emerging Market Investment Grade: Market Well Held

    With markets down across the globe, we are writing to tell you that EMD has not delivered a homogenous drawdown. Instead, there has been a resilience in our arena that is worthy of comment.

    Read more

    Emerging markets debt: stronger than it’s ever been

    In our view, emerging markets debt deserves the positive attention it has been receiving in an era of central bank interference and global hunt for yield.

    Read more

    Emerging markets and the negative yield conundrum for fixed income investors

    Record low bond yields pose a major problem for fixed income investors. We explore why taking active FX risk can be a solution for investors.

    Read more

    No longer “why” but “how”: the case for emerging markets debt matures

    In a world where real yield is increasingly scarce, it is our view, emerging markets debt deserves a larger role in a global fixed income portfolio.

    Read more

    EM central banks – the case for an asymmetrical beta to the fed

    EM Central Banks have a relatively high beta to Fed policy rates. We believe EM Central Banks will deliver a significant cutting cycle across most countries.

    Read more
    APAC

    The race is on for global strategic dominance

    There is chatter in markets that Chinese policy is turning hawkish and that growth may slow markedly as a result. We disagree. In our view, Chinese policy is being adjusted, reflecting medium run priorities in a way that should not result in the feared growth downside.

    Read more

    China’s Interest Rate Pivot

    While China’s post-Covid-19 economic data is showing signs of normalization, the government’s focus on stability will have significant implications for monetary policy and interest rates

    Read more

    The PBoC – Rate Cuts and Policy Clarification

    The Peoples Bank of China recent policy actions help address the concerns that its policy response was lagging the aggressive actions taken by other central banks.

    Read more

    Singapore Dollar – no longer defying gravity

    The Singapore Dollar is no longer defying gravity – we discuss why and the implications for cash investors.

    Read more

    PBOC: small move, strong signal

    We look at why the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) made its recent and notable dovish pivot and its implications for investors

    Read more

    Chinese property - a paradigm shift

    Chinese property is one of the largest sectors in the Asia high yield bond universe, and is often considered as one of the “safer” sectors by investors.

    Read more

    RBA: uncharted territory for unattainable goals

    The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its overnight rate to a new record low - leaving the RBA in uncharted territory.

    Read more

    The miraculous japanese labour force

    Japan suffers from labor shortages and the working population is no longer growing. So how is it possible the economy just added the most number of jobs on record?

    Read more

    China’s $3 trillion bond index inclusion

    We review how the inclusion of China onshore government bonds in the Global Aggregate Index impacts the market.

    Read more
    Read more
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