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    Guide to the Markets: New daily edition

    We’re excited to announce the launch of our new daily updated Guide to the Markets. Hear from Karen Ward, Chief Market Strategist for EMEA, as she introduces the daily Guide, and shows how you can access all the latest market and economic data, wherever and whenever you need it.

    Key themes for 3Q 2023


    Too good to be true

    Markets have become increasingly optimistic that inflationary pressures will recede even if economic activity remains robust (Guide to the Markets – Europe pg 7). This expectation that Goldilocks will return has buoyed both stock and bond prices this year (pgs 48, 72), but such a benign scenario seems too good to be true. We expect the central banks will need to maintain their foot on the brake to drive away excess inflation (pg 9). A recession is still our base case.


    Boost resilience

    Given the recent rally, neither equity nor credit markets appear priced for a period of economic weakness. Against this backdrop we believe that investors should focus on high quality credit (pg 70) and look to boost the resilience of an equity portfolio via exposure to strong balance sheets, resilient dividend payers and regional diversification (pgs 48, 51, 53). We caution against having too much confidence that large cap tech will prove defensive in an earnings recession (pg 65).


    Think more broadly about diversification

    Real yields in core government bonds are more attractive than they have been in over a decade (pg 68). If a recession is accompanied by a quick dissolution of inflationary pressures, core bonds will provide ballast to a portfolio (pg 73). But 2022 is a reminder that inflation is not dead and can be extremely damaging to the price of stocks and bonds. Alternatives are needed to insulate a portfolio from inflation shocks (pg 78).


    From abundance to scarcity

    Although headline inflation will fall further in the coming months, we do expect more inflation volatility as the global economy enters a period in which scarcity of key commodities becomes more apparent and problematic. Our key concerns centre on low carbon energy, materials, food and water, and labour markets (pgs 16, 83, 84, 86).


    MORE INSIGHTS

    Mid-Year Investment Outlook : Too good to be true

    With markets and economies both proving resilient so far this year, our global economic outlook highlights the investment opportunities and risks ahead. Explore now.

    Read more

    On the Minds of Investors

    Drawing on the depth and breadth of their market and economic expertise, our global macro strategists offer insight into today's big investment themes to enable more confident portfolio decisions.

    Read more

    The Market Insights programme provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the programme explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.

     

    For the purposes of MiFID II, the JPM Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes are marketing communications and are not in scope for any MiFID II / MiFIR requirements specifically related to investment research. Furthermore, the J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own professional advisers, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be suitable to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not a reliable indicator of current and future results. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply with our legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our EMEA Privacy Policy www.jpmorgan.com/emea-privacy-policy. This communication is issued in Europe (excluding UK) by JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) S.à r.l., 6 route de Trèves, L-2633 Senningerberg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, R.C.S. Luxembourg B27900, corporate capital EUR 10.000.000. This communication is issued in the UK by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No. 01161446. Registered address: 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.

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