Multi-Asset Solutions Strategy Report

What have – and haven’t – markets priced in?

American flag over building
David Lebovitz

Global Strategist in Multi-Asset Solutions

Kennedy Manley

Global Strategist in Multi-Asset Solutions

Published: 30-01-2025

In brief

  • While equity markets experienced a one-day selloff in late January amid concerns over the AI capex cycle, the U.S. economic outlook remains positive, as evidenced by solid consumer spending, industrial production and a healthy labor market.
  • Recent data point to a rise in retail sales and housing starts although high mortgage rates may limit further improvements in the housing sector.
  • We think inflationary pressures will be contained, enabling the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year.
  • We maintain a pro-risk stance in our multi-asset portfolios, focusing on U.S. equities and credit. We are broadening exposure across size and style to capture earnings growth. Meanwhile, higher yields and a positively sloped yield curve make duration more attractive.

The first month of 2025 ended with a bang. Equity markets fell on news of a low-cost artificial intelligence (AI) model from DeepSeek, a Chinese company, raising investor concerns about the AI capex cycle. Stocks then recovered a portion of their losses over the remainder of the week.

The selloff came against a backdrop of still-solid U.S. economic activity. Indeed, we maintain a constructive outlook on the U.S. economy. It drives our pro-risk view in portfolios, which are positioned to capitalize on the theme of U.S. exceptionalism. But we recognize that healthy economic fundamentals will be needed to blunt any new market selloff. We also expect that uncertainty around monetary policy and government policy—in particular, the trajectory of the new Trump Administration—will keep market volatility elevated this year.

Across key U.S. economic metrics – including purchasing managers indices (PMIs), consumer spending, housing, industrial production and jobs—the data are encouraging. One example: The widely followed Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker currently projects around 3% growth for the first quarter.

The composite January flash PMI, the timeliest measure of U.S. growth, remains in expansion territory at 52.4. Moreover, it reflects a better balance between the manufacturing and services sectors than it has in recent months. The manufacturing PMI rose modestly, while the services PMI unexpectedly fell 4 points to 52.8. That drop may signal that the long-standing strength in the services sector is starting to moderate.

Consumers are still spending. December retail sales rose 0.4% month-over-month (m/m); excluding volatile items such as autos and gas, sales increased 0.7%. However, not all sectors fared equally well. Building materials sales fell by 2% m/m and restaurant spending dipped by 0.3%, Yet employment in the industry continued to rise, suggesting that the drop in spending may be a temporary blip rather than a long-term downturn.

Housing, industry and labor: Generally healthy

The housing market performed well in December. Housing starts rose 15.8% m/m. (Multifamily starts jumped 62%, while single-family starts rose 3%). Still, high mortgage rates and rising inventories will likely constrain further improvement. One sign of possible softening: Building permits declined 0.7% m/m.

Industrial production came in better than expected, as manufacturing output increased 0.6%, up from 0.4% in November. But on a year-over-year (y/y) basis output was roughly flat, suggesting that on a longer-term basis, the U.S. manufacturing sector remains relatively stagnant, with no significant increase compared to a year ago.

The labor market looks generally healthy even as some data signals cooling. December nonfarm payrolls rose by 256,000, with job gains widespread across most industries outside manufacturing. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% from 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5%, signs of a labor market in a reasonable state of balance.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) delivered a mixed message. Openings are rising but hiring is declining. The quits rate fell to 1.9% from 2.1%, returning to this cycle's low, while the layoffs rate remained at a low 1.1%. Market participants welcomed the data, which suggest the labor market's cooling reflects a slower pace of hiring rather than increased layoffs.

Looking ahead to the January jobs report, we anticipate some negative impact from the California wildfires. Initial jobless claims nationwide rose by 6,000, to 223,000, in the week ending January 18, while continuing claims jumped to 1.899 million, marking a three-year high.

Crosscurrents affect our inflation outlook

As always, the labor market data critically informs the inflation outlook. Here the wage data are encouraging. In December, average hourly earnings grew by 0.3% m/m, down from the previous month’s 0.4% growth; y/y, it increased 3.9%. With a reacceleration in wage growth posing the biggest risk to an expected cooling in inflation, it will be important to monitor this data closely.

On the inflation front, several crosscurrents are at work. December core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% m/m and 3.2% y/y. But a 4.4% m/m surge in energy prices pushed up headline CPI, which rose 0.4% m/m and 2.9% y/y. Shelter inflation remains elevated at 4.6% year-over-year but is trending in a favorable direction, according to real-time data. Excluding shelter, core services inflation rose by just 0.2% m/m.

The December Producer Price Index (PPI) was softer than expected. The headline measure increased by 0.2% m/m and the core measure stayed flat on a monthly basis. That suggests a potential easing in upstream price pressures, which could translate into more moderate consumer price inflation in the future. As such, we continue to look for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates twice this year, once in the first half and again in 2H25.

But what is priced in?

All in all, we see a solid economic backdrop for investing over the coming quarters. What are markets pricing in on the growth and policy fronts? That’s a critical question. To answer it, we can glean different insights from interest rates, credit spreads and equity valuations. 

Rates: Government bond yields have been more stable after rising significantly at the end of 2024 and beginning of 2025, largely on concerns about the evolution of U.S. government policy.

Some market participants worry that the new administration’s tariff and immigration policies could prove inflationary. Notably, inflation breakevens have returned to the top end of their recent range and the term premium is at its highest level since 2015.

On balance, we continue to believe that President Trump’s bark will be worse than his bite. Inflation will remain contained, we believe, enabling the Fed to cut rates twice this year. Market pricing seems to be moving toward that view, after oscillating between pricing two extremes, very little monetary policy easing or a sharp cutting cycle.

Credit: We can learn more about what credit spreads have priced in from a macroeconomic perspective; reading the data from a policy perspective is less useful. U.S. high yield spreads seem a bit rich relative to the pace of manufacturing activity, but they look consistent with the rate of overall economic growth. Perhaps more importantly, given some underlying concerns about inflation, spreads are consistent with current market pricing of one-year forward inflation. The spread level also suggests a further easing in lending standards and contained defaults. That’s the good news.

But some credit metrics signal a less benign outlook. Estimates of what spreads should be based on cross-asset implied volatility are far higher than current levels. In addition, the credit default swap (CDS) basis is negative, as the spread on high yield CDS is higher than the spread on cash bonds. In short, some data suggests potential risks beneath the surface of the high yield market.

High yield spreads are fair given the inflation outlook

Exhibit 1: High yield OAS, 1-year CPI swap

MSR Jan Chart

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management Multi-Asset Solutions; data as of January 28, 2025.

Equities: Stocks offer a third source of insight into what markets have (and haven’t) priced in. After a soft start to the year, stocks have enjoyed a healthy run, with only a brief late January sell-off. Valuations, which currently sit above our estimate of fair value and near the high end of their trading range in recent years, reflect a widespread optimism about profit growth. Equity investors may be proved too optimistic about earnings growth over the course of 2025.

Broadly, equity markets seem to be pricing in a better growth environment supported by significant deregulation in sectors such as energy and financials. At the same time, investors look to be fading the risk of a more-hawkish-than-expected set of tariff and/or immigration policies. 

Investment implications

As we remain constructive on the outlook for the U.S. economy, we maintain a pro-risk tilt in portfolios. U.S. equities have room to run, but we are extending our exposure across a range of capitalizations and styles to take advantage of an expected broadening in earnings growth. We also see opportunity in credit. Although spreads are tight, fundamentals remain supportive and all-in yields are attractive. Finally, higher yields and a positively sloped yield curve make us more constructive on duration. We expect that this will be more about trading the range rather than making an outright bet on duration.

Overall, our portfolios remain positioned to capitalize on the theme of U.S. exceptionalism. We do find opportunity in markets outside the U.S. but we believe that the Trump administration’s pro-growth agenda will lead domestic assets to outperform this year. 

Exhibit 2: Multi-Asset Solutions Asset Class Views

Asset ClassOpportunity SetUWNOWChangeConvictionDescription
Main asset classesEquitiesEquities — OverweightNeutralLowGlobal growth close to trend supports ongoing earnings growth, valuations a headwind even with easing cycle in play
DurationDuration — NeutralNeutralNot applicableRate cutting cycle limits upside for yields, but market may be pricing more rate cuts than realistic given solid pace of growth
CreditCredit — OverweightNeutralLowTrend-like growth and attractive all-in yields supportive to credit despite tight levels of credit spreads
Preference by asset classEquitiesU.S. U.S. — OverweightNeutralLowHigh quality and strong EPS but valuations, esp. in tech, are a headwind; concentration risks mitigated by cash flow generation
EuropeEurope — UnderweightNeutralModerateOngoing weakness in global goods cycle and evidence of inventory overhang in key industries hold back EU equities
JapanJapan — OverweightNeutralLowImproving earnings yield and bottom up profitability point to upside, outflows suggest that overbought conditions from mid-year are behind us
UKUK — OverweightLowAttractive valuations and higher free cash flows support UK equities, defensive nature of UK index adds diversification
AustraliaAustralia — UnderweightNeutralModerateERRs continue to lag peers but valuations expensive; soft demand for base metals a headwind to mining sector
CanadaCanada — NeutralNeutralNot applicableEconomy has shown some resilience in face of higher rates, but business outlook weak and valuations unappealing
Hong KongHong Kong — OverweightNeutralLow Activity in China remains weak and is a headwind to earnings. but valuations and positioning are supportive and increased policy responses could provide a boost
EMEM — NeutralNot applicableEarnings revisions very negative and flows not supportive in EM equities
Fixed IncomeU.S. treasuriesU.S. treasuries — NeutralNot applicableScope for fiscal stimulus and deregulation could improve U.S. growth and raise the equilibrium yield for USTs
German BundsGerman Bunds — OverweightLowPotentially attractive as ECB looks set to cut rates at a decent clip, but with election risks in Feb 25 and yields already low may be at risk of volatility
JGBJGB — UnderweightNeutralLowFurther BoJ hikes coming in 2025 maintain upside risks to JGB yields but at current levels demand is likely to remain reasonable
UK GiltsUK Gilts — NeutralNeutralNot applicableWeak UK economy with scope for BoE to cut rates to offset worst impact of mortgage resets for UK consumers
Australia bondsAustralia bonds — NeutralNot applicableLeast priced in for rate cuts of the major bond markets, also postive carry is an attractive feature
Canada bondsCanada bonds — UnderweightLowHas rallied a lot alongside the U.S. so spreads are tight and it is also the market with the most punitive carry dynamics
BTPsBTPs — OverweightNeutralLowLower ECB rates supportive to periphery bonds but near-term risks around election cycle in Europe could mean some volatility
Corporate Inv. GradeCorporate Inv. Grade — NeutralNot applicableRobust corporate health and demand for quality carry; spreads tight, but carry advantage over sovereigns persists
Corporate High YieldCorporate High Yield — OverweightNeutralLowContained recession risks and improving quality in HY index supportive, spreads are tight but all-in yields are attractive
EMD SovereignEMD Sovereign — NeutralNeutralNot applicableFavor U.S. high yield to EMD sovereign given more fragile tail credits exposure in EMD compared to U.S. HY
CurrencyUSDUSD — OverweightNeutralModerateGrowth advantage of U.S. over RoW set to widen further, so even as Fed cutting cycle weighs on USD, growth differential is supportive
EUREUR — UnderweightNeutralLowEUR undermined by weakness of growth in Europe and likely need for the ECB to become more aggressive in cutting rates
JPYJPY — NeutralNot applicableBoJ the only major central bank hiking rates, lends support to JPY as does solid domestic growth outlook
CHFCHF — UnderweightNeutralModerateFX interventions have been reduced, and SNB on clear easing path, CHF could end up as the lowest yielder of the majors

The tick chart and views expressed in this note reflect the information and data available up to December 2024.

09dj252901204938
David Lebovitz

Global Strategist in Multi-Asset Solutions

Kennedy Manley

Global Strategist in Multi-Asset Solutions

Published: 30-01-2025