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Macro overview

It is extraordinary how the market narrative swung over the course of 2023. Coming into the year the predominant view was that we were stuck in the grips of 1970s-style stagflation. With central banks slamming on the brakes it is no wonder so many, ourselves included, expected a recession. That is usually what happens when interest rates rise so sharply.

Exhibit 1: Usually monetary tightening causes recessions

exhibit-1
Source: Federal Reserve, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Periods of recession are defined using US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) business cycle dates. Data as of 15 November 2023.
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Market Insights Team

Decorative

Karen Ward

Chief Market Strategist, EMEA

6 years with J.P. Morgan
20 years in the Industry
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Decorative

Maria Paola Toschi

15 years with J.P. Morgan
15 years in the Industry
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Decorative

Tilmann Galler

16 years with J.P. Morgan
22 years in the Industry
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Decorative

Vincent Juvyns

10 years with J.P. Morgan
24 years in the Industry
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Decorative

Hugh Gimber

5 years with J.P. Morgan
5 years in the Industry
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Decorative

Maximilian McKechnie

3 years with J.P. Morgan
3 years in the Industry
View Full Profile
Decorative

Natasha May

2 years in the Industry

Natasha May is a Global Market Analyst based in London.

View Full Profile
Decorative

Zara Nokes

3 years in the Industry

Zara Nokes is a Global Market Analyst based in London.

View Full Profile

Karen Ward

Chief Market Strategist, EMEA

Maria Paola Toschi

Tilmann Galler

Vincent Juvyns

Hugh Gimber

Maximilian McKechnie

Natasha May

Zara Nokes

Read more

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The Market Insights programme provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the programme explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions. For the purposes of MiFID II, the JPM Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes are marketing communications and are not in scope for any MiFID II / MiFIR requirements specifically related to investment research. Furthermore, the J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

 

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