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FEATURED PORTFOLIO INSIGHTS
Global Asset Allocation Views 4Q20
As the recovery is gaining pace, we maintain a risk-on tilt. We spread our risk between stocks and credit, move to underweight the U.S. dollar and mildly underweight duration. Expecting some volatility over the autumn we look to remain nimble.
Global Fixed Income Views 4Q20
After unprecedented global stimulus stabilized economies, what’s next? Many challenges. Still, Above Trend Growth remains our base case at a reduced 60% probability. Our preferences: higher beta U.S. corporates and munis; some local emerging market debt.
Emerging Market Debt Strategy Q3 2Q20
Our updated base case view, to which we assign a 60% probability, looks for global growth to bottom out and gradually transition to a shallow recovery. We see only a moderate risk of inflation, as activity and commodity prices remain low. In this core scenario, we expect central banks to remain accommodative, which we think will support emerging market assets.