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We review trends across markets and economies, consider what they mean for our multi-asset portfolios and present a positioning update.
Geopolitical risk is elevated but far from extreme. Still, political polarization has intensified and creates a more challenging environment. We favor bonds to protect portfolios from growth shocks and real assets to protect from inflationary risks.
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This month’s report explains why we’re skeptical of the optimism around European equities, which have priced in good news and ignored geopolitical risks; our portfolios maintain a preference for U.S. and Japanese equities.
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This month’s report considers what markets have priced in on the growth and policy fronts. We maintain a pro-risk stance, focusing on U.S. equities and credit.
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This month’s report examines the Trump economic agenda, focusing on immigration, tariffs, deregulation and fiscal policy. We expect the agenda will be mostly market-friendly, but not without risks.
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This month’s report explores economic developments in the U.S. and China that suggest the global expansion likely stays on solid footing, underpinning our preference for U.S. large cap and emerging market (especially Asian) equities and European bonds.
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This month’s report explains our view that moderating U.S. economic growth momentum is benign, not a recession precursor. Our portfolios favor U.S. equities and are neutral U.S. duration.
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