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Guide to the Markets

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Guide to the Markets
EMEAQ3 2025As of August 31, 2025
Guide to the Markets
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Global Market Insights Strategy Team

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Global growth

Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing

Global inflation

Global inflationary pressures

Global monetary policy

Global fiscal policy

Global consumer balance sheets

US dollar

US dollar cycles and hedging costs

US GDP and business surveys

US business plans and investment

US consumer

US labour market

US inflation

US Federal Reserve policy

US fiscal policy

US fiscal pressures

US interest rate sensitivity

US trade

US focus: Immigration and population dynamics

Eurozone GDP and business surveys

Eurozone business investment and loan growth

Eurozone consumer

Eurozone labour market

Eurozone unemployment

Eurozone inflation

European Central Bank policy and savings behaviour

European energy prices and German industrial production

Eurozone focus: Defence spending

UK GDP and business surveys

UK labour market and pricing intentions

UK inflation

UK focus: Economic and fiscal interactions

Japan GDP, inflation and wages

China growth drivers

China debt dynamics

China consumer

Emerging market structural dynamics

EM focus: Shifting global trade patterns

World equity valuations

Regional equity valuations

Regional earnings and profit margins

Regional earnings expectations

Global equity sector weights

Global equity income

Equity market factors

Bull and bear markets

Small caps

US earnings

US equity valuations

US valuations and subsequent returns

Europe earnings

Europe equity valuations

UK earnings

Japan equity market and currency

Emerging market equities

China equity valuations

Equity focus: Navigating the tech cycle

World stock market returns

Fixed income yields

Composition of global fixed income markets

Government bond yields and subsequent returns

Fixed income: Yield cushion and diversification

Global government bond yields

US yield curve and term premium

Global fixed income spreads

Global investment grade spreads

High yield bonds

Global high yield fundamentals

FI focus: US Treasury ownership and hedged yield differentials

Global fixed income returns

Oil

Volatility and alternative investments

Inflation spikes and alternative investments

Portfolio construction

Asset return expectations

Climate events and food inflation

Energy regulation and carbon pricing

Global CO₂ emissions by country

Energy mix and greenhouse gas emissions by sector

Investment in climate change mitigation and global energy mix

Electric vehicle sales and mineral content

Green, social and sustainable bonds

Life expectancy

The effect of compounding

Cash investments

Long-term asset returns

Annual returns and intra-year declines

Asset class risk-return trade-off

S&P 500 and fund flows

Returns after economic and geopolitical shocks

US asset returns by holding period

Asset class returns (EUR)

Asset class returns (EUR)

J.P. Morgan Asset Management: Risks and disclosures

J.P. Morgan Asset Management: Risks and disclosures

Cover page

Guide to the Markets
EMEAQ3 2025As of August 31, 2025
Guide to the Markets
Easily illustrate key investing topics during client conversations
Login for full access
  • Create custom presentations
  • Access the daily guide

Global Market Insights Strategy Team

Global Market Insights Strategy Team

Page reference

Page reference

Global growth

Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing

Global inflation

Global inflationary pressures

Global monetary policy

Global fiscal policy

Global consumer balance sheets

US dollar

US dollar cycles and hedging costs

US GDP and business surveys

US business plans and investment

US consumer

US labour market

US inflation

US Federal Reserve policy

US fiscal policy

US fiscal pressures

US interest rate sensitivity

US trade

US focus: Immigration and population dynamics

Eurozone GDP and business surveys

Eurozone business investment and loan growth

Eurozone consumer

Eurozone labour market

Eurozone unemployment

Eurozone inflation

European Central Bank policy and savings behaviour

European energy prices and German industrial production

Eurozone focus: Defence spending

UK GDP and business surveys

UK labour market and pricing intentions

UK inflation

UK focus: Economic and fiscal interactions

Japan GDP, inflation and wages

China growth drivers

China debt dynamics

China consumer

Emerging market structural dynamics

EM focus: Shifting global trade patterns

World equity valuations

Regional equity valuations

Regional earnings and profit margins

Regional earnings expectations

Global equity sector weights

Global equity income

Equity market factors

Bull and bear markets

Small caps

US earnings

US equity valuations

US valuations and subsequent returns

Europe earnings

Europe equity valuations

UK earnings

Japan equity market and currency

Emerging market equities

China equity valuations

Equity focus: Navigating the tech cycle

World stock market returns

Fixed income yields

Composition of global fixed income markets

Government bond yields and subsequent returns

Fixed income: Yield cushion and diversification

Global government bond yields

US yield curve and term premium

Global fixed income spreads

Global investment grade spreads

High yield bonds

Global high yield fundamentals

FI focus: US Treasury ownership and hedged yield differentials

Global fixed income returns

Oil

Volatility and alternative investments

Inflation spikes and alternative investments

Portfolio construction

Asset return expectations

Climate events and food inflation

Energy regulation and carbon pricing

Global CO₂ emissions by country

Energy mix and greenhouse gas emissions by sector

Investment in climate change mitigation and global energy mix

Electric vehicle sales and mineral content

Green, social and sustainable bonds

Life expectancy

The effect of compounding

Cash investments

Long-term asset returns

Annual returns and intra-year declines

Asset class risk-return trade-off

S&P 500 and fund flows

Returns after economic and geopolitical shocks

US asset returns by holding period

Asset class returns (EUR)

Asset class returns (EUR)

J.P. Morgan Asset Management: Risks and disclosures

J.P. Morgan Asset Management: Risks and disclosures

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Guide to the Markets

Guide to the Markets: Daily edition

Get quick access to all the latest market and economic data, wherever and whenever you need it with our daily Guide to the Markets. Watch the video to find out how.

Key themes for 3Q 2025

  • Stable foundations for an unstable world

  • Focus on regional stock diversification and income strategies

  • Own bonds for bad weather, not all weather

  • Be mindful of currency exposure

The volatility experienced in the first half of the year is likely to persist as markets continue to play a crucial role in guiding the US administration towards sensible, amicable policy. Markets will also be led by incoming data and what that teaches us about how the US and global economy is dealing with uncertainty and new cost pressures (Guide to the Markets – EMEA pgs 7, 14, 15, 18).

We should focus on portfolio strategies that will cope with a range of economic outcomes. Within equities, it seems sensible to use regional stock diversification (pgs 44, 56) and income strategies (pg 48) to reduce risks that could arise from too much dependence on the fortunes of tech, and the broad US market (pgs 53, 61).

Fixed income investors are having to contend with conflicting risks of higher inflation and slowing growth, causing volatility in bond markets. Despite this, we think bonds still have an important role to play in a portfolio (pg 66). However, if a resurgence of inflation turns out to be the dominant force then investors should remember the lessons from 2022 and the role of real assets in providing an inflation hedge (pg 77).

Investors should be mindful of how currency moves could compound losses in US assets in a number of risk-off scenarios. Be aware of currency exposures and consider hedging USD exposure (pgs 12, 73).

More insights

On the Minds of Investors

Drawing on the depth and breadth of their market and economic expertise, our global macro strategists offer insight into today's big investment themes to enable more confident portfolio decisions.

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Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2025

Explore our Investment Outlook, with insights on what you need to know about global markets and economies.

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Guide to Alternatives

Get insights on macro topics such as manager dispersion, while also diving into real estate, private credit, private equity and hedge funds and more.

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.The Market Insights programme provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the programme explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions. For the purposes of MiFID II, the JPM Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes are marketing communications and are not in scope for any MiFID II / MiFIR requirements specifically related to investment research. Furthermore, the J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not a reliable indicator of current and future results. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply with our legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at am.jpmorgan.com/global/privacy. This communication is issued by the following entities: In the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission; in Latin America, for intended recipients’ use only, by local J.P. Morgan entities, as the case may be.; in Canada, for institutional clients’ use only, by JPMorgan Asset Management (Canada) Inc., which is a registered Portfolio Manager and Exempt Market Dealer in all Canadian provinces and territories except the Yukon and is also registered as an Investment Fund Manager in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador. In the United Kingdom, by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; in other European jurisdictions, by JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) S.à r.l. In Asia Pacific (“APAC”), by the following issuing entities and in the respective jurisdictions in which they are primarily regulated: JPMorgan Asset Management (Asia Pacific) Limited, or JPMorgan Funds (Asia) Limited, or JPMorgan Asset Management Real Assets (Asia) Limited, each of which is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong; JPMorgan Asset Management (Singapore) Limited (Co. Reg. No. 197601586K), this advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore; JPMorgan Asset Management (Taiwan) Limited; JPMorgan Asset Management (Japan) Limited, which is a member of the Investment Trusts Association, Japan, the Japan Investment Advisers Association, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and the Japan Securities Dealers Association and is regulated by the Financial Services Agency (registration number “Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firm) No. 330”); in Australia, to wholesale clients only as defined in section 761A and 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Commonwealth), by JPMorgan Asset Management (Australia) Limited (ABN 55143832080) (AFSL 376919). For all other markets in APAC, to intended recipients only. For U.S. only: If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.
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