2019 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA)
Time-tested projections to build stronger portfolios
J.P. Morgan’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions help investors and advisers around the world make better strategic asset allocation decisions to achieve their long-term investment goals.
If you want to understand the LTCMA program in more detail, we’ve produced a short animated guide for you to watch.
2019 LTCMA Insights >
DESIGN, BUILD AND MAINTAIN STRONGER PORTFOLIOS
Long-term investment returns
These five articles look into issues likely to have a profound and protracted impact on the global investment landscape.
The taming of the business cycle
In recent decades, the U.S. economy has become more stable. Notwithstanding the global financial crisis, recessions are milder and less frequent, while recoveries are weaker. The business cycle has certainly not been eliminated, but perhaps it has been tamed.
Surviving the short term to thrive in the long term
With the U.S. economy firmly in late cycle, investors are concerned. How can they ensure their portfolios survive the short term so they can thrive in the long term? The answer would be fairly straightforward if recessions were all alike and had a predictable impact across markets—but they’re not, and they don’t.
Will debt be a drag?
Developed market (DM) governments accumulated massive debts during the global financial crisis—which they appear reluctant, or unwilling, to tackle. The U.S., for example, is deploying a significant, unfunded tax cut, European voters are demonstrating austerity fatigue and Japan is kicking the can down the road.
The evolution of market structure
Over the past 50 years, the roles of public and private capital markets have changed slowly but profoundly. In both markets, managing illiquidity risk remains a critical element of portfolio construction.
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