Investment outlook 2019: China - J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Investment outlook 2019: China

Contributor Karen Ward
Chinese authorities back on the accelerator

While fiscal stimulus in the US is fading, Beijing’s policymakers have put their feet firmly back on the accelerator to see off the impact of slowing exports. Local government bond issuance is now ramping up in a bid to fund domestic infrastructure projects.

The Chinese authorities face a difficult balancing act of maintaining the “quality over quantity” agenda and reducing excesses and leverage in pockets of the economy, but at the same time sustaining a sufficient level of growth to support employment. Easing measures will be targeted and of a smaller scale than in 2008, but we expect growth to remain supported in the region of 6%.

The Chinese authorities are back on the accelerator

Chinese local government bond issuance
RMB billions

Source: CEIC, Ministry of Finance of China, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of 30 November 2018.


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Key themes for 2019

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