Timely commentary, strategic perspectives and in-depth analysis from our investment teams to help guide your portfolio decisions.
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We have growing conviction in a return to trend-like growth and an extension of the cycle. We overweight credit, which should offer equity-like returns over the next two to three quarters. In our equity overweight we favor the U.S., Japan and emerging market ex-China equity. We are neutral overall on duration.
Despite mixed data and the rarity of soft landings, the Fed may have engineered one. Our base case: 70% probability of Sub Trend Growth. An economy gliding to trend growth, and 2% inflation, have always been good for credit risk. This time should be no exception.
Before the recent setback in markets, higher valuations and a narrow market in the U.S. had made our investors more cautious on the outlook. Profits remain healthy but forecasts for further gains in 2025 look aggressive.
Factors delivered a solid quarter, moving to their own beat as Magnificent 6 stocks surged. Equity momentum led; other factors diverged across regions, sectors and individual factors. Factors continue to offer a range of opportunities.